Re: Perpetual Czech Still Rejects Me
Re: Perpetual Czech Still Rejects Me
Yup. that's what I have been hearing........I guess it must be true.
Seriously, I've lost on my releases during the past few years vs. Widely Available lines. I make no excuses. I've tried to do too many sports, and my work hasn't been good enough. It has become very, very difficult for me to give out winners vs. widely available numbers when I'm handicapping multiple sports. The marketplace is so much faster.
My Vancouver friend got the Mia Heat +2 opener at Pinnacle on my recommendation. I gave them out +1.5/+1 on the overnight line (+1.5 was gone quickly). It's easy to say "What the (_#*(%, releasing them at 1am in the middle of the night". The problem is that by a normal hour you blink and the Heat are -1, an your likley 55% +1.5 play is no longer worth a bet.
When you just focus on one sport, and you have talent and drive you win. You win betting Rams OVER 5.5 +110. It's a lot harder winning when you have to play into OV 6. Ditto for stuff like HOU -6 hosting mia. A great bet -6. A pretty darn good bet -6.5. Once it settles in at 7, happy hour is over, and now the -7 is still preferred but it's unclear if it will win 52.4%.
Willy Loman did a nice job explaining all this.
I gave out 604 ATL -3.5 last night, ok to play -4. ATL -5 ? No good at all.......
It's simple
How many of your "real life serious" bets are made at the best number you can get at the time of your bet? And how many are made in the middle of the day at widely available numbers?
I would bet it's about 100% for the first answer and 0% for the second.
It is close to impossible for anyone to pick winners for others unless the person is right next to them making the same exact bets. The numbers move that fast especially the openers. If you wait you lose a lot of value.
No tout can give a bet using the opening lines, but they can get those bets themselves.
You can never judge a bettors/touts success based on bets made on widely available lines. That's not realistic.
It's very possible that FEZZIK is making a lot of money betting early and late on the same games. It's very possible he wins on a good % of his early bets and his late bets.
I would hope he is smart enough to make a profit no matter how bad he is doing because just betting the moves can make you money even if those moves are losers. That is why getting the best lines is the 1st and most important aspect to gambling.
Doesn't matter if I like FEZZIK or not ... the fact remains the guy should be making money.
I just don't get the tout shit, but to each his own.
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