MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

[munson15]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

Thursday selections-----------------

detroit +137
st.louis +140

Now to the issue of why others are not listed.

I'm not using texas because Baek's 3.32 NPERA would place him among the top pitchers in the AL w/ enough innings pitched.

PITTSBURGH no play due to Maddux being in the top 24 NPERA's in the NL. Subjective, I admit, because some use a strict top 20, but I like the concept of 1.5 pitchers per team, and I'd have to say the PIRATES are a lean.

san francisco I skipped because El Duque's 2.80 NPERA would place him well within the top 20 if he qualified, innings-wise.

Finally, florida was left out because the rules state that a pitcher making a spot start needs to have pitched 10 innings within the last 2 weeks, and Obermueller has not. His last appearance was a start, but he came oput of the bullpen his previous out, and I consider this a spot start. Again, a lean.

GL!:cheers :cheers

 

[munson15]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

st.louis available at +150 (Matchbook-2% comm still +147) and detroit +140 (Skybook).

 

[eman]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

Best of luck today....

 

[munson15]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

Thanks eman!

 

[munson15]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

Thursday results------------------

1-1, +40 shannons:smokesmal

Season totals--------------------

33-41, -228 freehans

 

[munson15]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

Friday's selections---------------------

san francisco +131
florida +137

GL.:cheers

 

[munson15]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

Friday's results--------------

1-1, +31 davenports:smokesmal

Season totals-------------

34-42, -197 conines

 

[munson15]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

Saturday selections----------------

new york(AL) +129
detroit +138
kansas city +117
texas +133
st. louis +131

GL.:cheers

 

[eman]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

Your plays look good except Detroit as they have lost 3 in a row. Best of luck today...

 

[munson15]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

Sorry eman, I f****ed up that one. :+clueless detroit is scratched, thanks for pointing out the error. I hope no one was inconvenienced by my stupidity.:doh1

 

[munson15]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

Saturday results-------------

1-3, -183 pepitones

Season totals---------------

35-45, -380 olivers

Sunday selections-----------

detroit +100
baltimore +130
sanfrancisco+115
WASHINGTON+118

Not a lot of time, eman, I'd appreciate you checking if you have a chance. Don't want to mess up like yesterday. Thanks, and GL.

 

[mofome]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

munson, send me some naked photos of yourself asap. no time for questions, just send them.

 

[munson15]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

munson, send me some naked photos of yourself asap. no time for questions, just send them.

:LMAO :LMAO :LMAO :LMAO :LMAO :LMAO :LMAO :LMAO :LMAO

Mofome, you never disappoint! Thanks for the pop-in!:cheers :cheers

 

[munson15]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

And here I was all bummed out about the 2 tough losses for the system yesterday, Mofome has me laughing! I NEVER laugh when I lose...........until now.

 

[eman]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

Sorry I was out all day and did not see this. Those were the plays.

 

[Bobby Bacala]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

I will not be around as much until college football but I will be checking in periodically. I will be taking the rest of the summer "off" (need a little break) but I will be back starting college football season.
Good Luck:cheers

 

[munson15]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

Guys, I apologize, my internet service was down all day at the office. I'll try to post the night games ASAP. And Bobby, anyone who witnessed the unfortunate incident at the hobby shop during last night's episode would understand why you'd need some time off.:LMAO Seriously, thanks for the headsup, have a nice summer and please pop in when you can.:cheers

 

[Starpost9]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

Munson, this is my first time to look at your continuing underdog thread. Please don't take that in a negative manner as I've seen some of your posts on other threads, and I figure you're a guy who knows how to bet baseball.

Fact is, your (bad) dog numbers don't surprise me at all. Wagerline shows all dogs hitting at only 41% STD, whereas for a full season they will generally be 43-44.5%. I don't play either the big dogs (>+185) or the very small ones (<+108), and stats on just the games in-between which I do play show just 38.6% dogs winning.

Normally I figure to hit several percentage points better than the thing as a whole, but so far this season I'm worse than average. But I've doubled my stake since opening day by recognizing (about week 3) that things are really whacked out this year, and opting to bet heavier on faves.

I really don't think betting faves is the long-term answer to making money with MLB, but ya gotta go with the flow. I'm hoping to begin seeing better dog numbers any time now, but thinking I'll continue to lay low until they're much more consistent.

So don't let 'em get you down because you have to believe they'll turn around soon.

 

[munson15]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

Munson, this is my first time to look at your continuing underdog thread. Please don't take that in a negative manner as I've seen some of your posts on other threads, and I figure you're a guy who knows how to bet baseball.

Fact is, your (bad) dog numbers don't surprise me at all. Wagerline shows all dogs hitting at only 41% STD, whereas for a full season they will generally be 43-44.5%. I don't play either the big dogs (>+185) or the very small ones (<+108), and stats on just the games in-between which I do play show just 38.6% dogs winning.

Normally I figure to hit several percentage points better than the thing as a whole, but so far this season I'm worse than average. But I've doubled my stake since opening day by recognizing (about week 3) that things are really whacked out this year, and opting to bet heavier on faves.

I really don't think betting faves is the long-term answer to making money with MLB, but ya gotta go with the flow. I'm hoping to begin seeing better dog numbers any time now, but thinking I'll continue to lay low until they're much more consistent.

So don't let 'em get you down because you have to believe they'll turn around soon.

I agree dogs should enjoy a turnaround star, but there are always seasons that are the anomaly, like the 2005 NFL season when dogs (and books) got their brains beat in pretty much all year. I figure that a strict dog system that's only down a few units in a season like we've had so far is worth tracking. Thanks very much for the input. When you're monitoring a losing thread, any company is appreciated. :cheers

 

[munson15]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

Monday's selections----------------

san francisco +100 (I know they already won, this is for tracking purposes only)
chicago(NL) +123
minnesota +139

GL to everyone on tonight's abbreviated MLB slate.:cheers

 

[munson15]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

Monday's selections----------------

san francisco +100 (I know they already won, this is for tracking purposes only)
chicago(NL) +123
minnesota +139

GL to everyone on tonight's abbreviated MLB slate.:cheers

CBS Sportsline sucks! I can't even get updated standings w/ W/L streaks updated until mid-morning. Yesterday, the site was so f**cked up, I listed minnesota as a play and the Angels 3-game win streak wasn't shown. I bet it and am hopping mad, because it was a no-play. Makes up for the detroit game I bet that was supposed to be a no play from Saturday.

Sorry for the confusion, but since no one should give a shit how much I personally am up or down, the system SHOULD have gone 2-0 yesterday. Between the internet being down almost all day here, and the early standings not listing the current streaks properly, I really screwed this up.

 

[munson15]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

Eman, I need you to check me, I'm losing it here!

Monday's results----------------

2-0, +223 hundleys

Season totals------------------

38-48, -357 killebrews

(Missed updating Sunday's results, 1-3 -200 was included in the above season totals)

 

[munson15]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

Tuesday's selections---------------

philadelphia +142
chicago(NL) +104
houston +122
TEXAS +120

GL:cheers

 

[eman]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

I use USA Today as they seem to update the standing right away. When I saw your plays this morning I thought that I missed the Minny play.

Those be the plays today.

I will check during the day when I can. Once I leave work I normally don't go on the computer at home as I check espn for scores.

Let's get positive today!!!!

 

[munson15]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

So eman, USA Today is better for updated standings including streaks, etc.?

I'll try to stay positive, but I turned a 2-0 day into 1-1.

 

[Bobby Bacala]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

check out this site:
Baseball-Reference.com - Major League Baseball Statistics and History

 

[eman]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

Texas is a no play now since there is a pitching change...

 

[munson15]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

check out this site:
Baseball-Reference.com - Major League Baseball Statistics and History

Thanks Bobby!:cheers

 

[Starpost9]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

The worm may have turned. Dogs in my "slot" went 6-4, and I noticed that big dog Florida knocked off Atlanta with Smoltz pitching. Good omens there for the dog player.

 

[munson15]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

The worm may have turned. Dogs in my "slot" went 6-4, and I noticed that big dog Florida knocked off Atlanta with Smoltz pitching. Good omens there for the dog player.

Thanks for the encouragement, Star!:cheers

 

[munson15]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

Tuesday's results--------------

2-1, +164 bagwells:houra

Season totals-----------------

40-49, -193 kessingers

 

[munson15]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

Wednesday's selections-----------------------

florida +130
chicago(NL) +106
pittsburgh +102
houston +140
CHICAGO(AL) +145
OAKLAND +118

GL.:cheers

eman, if you have time, please verify. Thanks.

 

[munson15]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

OAKLAND now +125 at SIA. Just a headsup, still using +118 as our line for tracking purposes.

 

[eman]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

These are the plays. Not sure what is going on but i was not able to access the site at work. Wondering if they added this site to the block sites.

 

[munson15]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

Man, I hope not. If all we could at work was work, it would make for a long day indeed!:cheers Thanks for looking them over, eman.

 

[munson15]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

Wednesday results------------------

3-3, +52 bandos

Season totals----------------------

43-52, -141 biggios

Actually had it above sea level after the afternoon games, but the nightcap put us back in red ink.:doh1

 

[munson15]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

Thursday's selections----------------

OAKLAND +132
CHICAGO(AL)+115
TEXAS +121

GL.:cheers

 

[munson15]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

I'm really hoping for a good day because we'll be shut down for the next 2 weeks of interleague play. :smokesmal

 

[munson15]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

On hiatus during interleague play after a really shitty end to the week.

Thursday's results------------------

0-3, -300 aparicios

Season totals---------------------

43-55, -441 lindblads

 

[munson15]

Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS

Bumping so I can find the damn thing Monday when interleague ends.