Bobby Bacala
EOG Senior Member
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
I am not a member but I can stop by for a visit
I am not a member but I can stop by for a visit
MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
- Thread starter munson15
- Start date
munson15
I want winners...
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
Bobby, go to the baseball room over there, and look for "Baseball across trhe pond." It is a season long thread like this one, and towards the beginning, there is info on how the system works. I'd tell you here, but the pitching part is a little long and complicated, and I'd rather you see it direct from the source. Let me know how you do, and if you need any further assistance, I'll be happy to help.:cheers
Bobby, go to the baseball room over there, and look for "Baseball across trhe pond." It is a season long thread like this one, and towards the beginning, there is info on how the system works. I'd tell you here, but the pitching part is a little long and complicated, and I'd rather you see it direct from the source. Let me know how you do, and if you need any further assistance, I'll be happy to help.:cheers
Bobby Bacala
EOG Senior Member
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
I found it.........Thanks Munson :cheers
I found it.........Thanks Munson :cheers
Bobby Bacala
EOG Senior Member
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
Is this the correct criteria? Let me know if I missed anything.
-eliminate all dogs greater than +150
-eliminate if dogs has lost 3 in a row or favorite has won 3 in a row
-eliminate if favorite team's pitcher is in top 20 of the saragin ratings
-Skip the first three turns through the rotation in April,
-Skip the last 2 weeks or so of the season,
-Skip IL play
-Both starters have to have made three starts before they become eligibale. If making a spot start out of the bullpen, must have tossed 10+ innings in last 2 weeks.
-Pitchers returning off the DL must make one start to be come eligiable.
-Starters must make a start after all-star break unless able to pitch withing six days of last start
Is this the correct criteria? Let me know if I missed anything.
-eliminate all dogs greater than +150
-eliminate if dogs has lost 3 in a row or favorite has won 3 in a row
-eliminate if favorite team's pitcher is in top 20 of the saragin ratings
-Skip the first three turns through the rotation in April,
-Skip the last 2 weeks or so of the season,
-Skip IL play
-Both starters have to have made three starts before they become eligibale. If making a spot start out of the bullpen, must have tossed 10+ innings in last 2 weeks.
-Pitchers returning off the DL must make one start to be come eligiable.
-Starters must make a start after all-star break unless able to pitch withing six days of last start
munson15
I want winners...
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
That's about it, Bobby. The pitching rules are tough to follow because you need to be sure a pitcher is eligible. I asked the guy if we should play if the underdog pitcher meets the criteria, and not the favorite pitcher, he said maybe.
Also, there are times when the pitchers may have a qualifying low NPERA, but not enough innings to rank. Then I believe we count them if the NPERA they carry would put them in the top 20 w/ enough innings. That's why not nearly all pitchers are listed in the first grouping.
Also, the guy said a good suggestion would be to use the top 21 in the AL and top 24 in the NL, because that works out to 1.5 pitchers per team.
That's about it, Bobby. The pitching rules are tough to follow because you need to be sure a pitcher is eligible. I asked the guy if we should play if the underdog pitcher meets the criteria, and not the favorite pitcher, he said maybe.
Also, there are times when the pitchers may have a qualifying low NPERA, but not enough innings to rank. Then I believe we count them if the NPERA they carry would put them in the top 20 w/ enough innings. That's why not nearly all pitchers are listed in the first grouping.
Also, the guy said a good suggestion would be to use the top 21 in the AL and top 24 in the NL, because that works out to 1.5 pitchers per team.
Bobby Bacala
EOG Senior Member
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
Munson,
I came up with 5 pieces today.
I'll wait for you to post and see if I did it right.
Munson,
I came up with 5 pieces today.
I'll wait for you to post and see if I did it right.
eman
EOG Senior Member
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
The only issue that I have seen with this system, besides not winning yet, is the time one looks at the lines. I know there have been a few times where Munson and I don't have the same games because he might look at the games later than I do and the lines might have moved. I have my games pegged as well so let's see if we can't put our minds together and come up with some winners.
The only issue that I have seen with this system, besides not winning yet, is the time one looks at the lines. I know there have been a few times where Munson and I don't have the same games because he might look at the games later than I do and the lines might have moved. I have my games pegged as well so let's see if we can't put our minds together and come up with some winners.
munson15
I want winners...
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
I like your thoughts on this eman. I will say that the marginal dogs, say in the +100 to +104 range, sometimes have changed to faves or pick'ems. However, I have an account at SIA, and some of the larger dogs have seen their prices go up later in the day. I've posted lines here and then bet at a better price plenty of times.
munson15
I want winners...
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
Thanks Dirty, you too. We've been trying to get a foothold w/ this well-circulated underdog system and have been below sea level the whole time. I appreciate the encouragement.:cheers
Bobby Bacala
EOG Senior Member
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
I came up with some different plays. I am still learning the system so I will have to go back and look over everything again......bear with me. I came up with Marlins too but I missed the top 24 thing and I also missed toronto. (i was just looking for the dogs and not even odds)
Matched up with Pitt and Seattle.
I came up with some different plays. I am still learning the system so I will have to go back and look over everything again......bear with me. I came up with Marlins too but I missed the top 24 thing and I also missed toronto. (i was just looking for the dogs and not even odds)
Matched up with Pitt and Seattle.
munson15
I want winners...
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
OK, I think what I'm hearing is that we're comfortable w/ the top 24 exclusion for the NL pitchers, which includes Hamels. That makes FLORIDA a no-play. Bobby, toronto was +104 earlier, line moved against us, but I think if you can still get even money at least, it's a play.
So we all understand the pitcher ranking. The guy that claimed to have come up w/ the system had it suggested that 24 pitchers in the NL and 21 in the AL made sense because that represented 1-1/2 pitchers per team in each league. He liked the idea, he felt that the more filtering he did, the better the system performed. We can look at it from the perspective that using 21 AL and 24 NL pitchers makes the system more selective, and theoretically, more effective.
He had numbers showing that the system had a better ROR w/ the filters added. The Sagarin ratings weren't even part of the original system. I have asked questions, and some of them were answered a little vaguely, but once we agree that we like the way it's set up, we can just track it, and ask each other questions when we feel something's awry.
OK, I think what I'm hearing is that we're comfortable w/ the top 24 exclusion for the NL pitchers, which includes Hamels. That makes FLORIDA a no-play. Bobby, toronto was +104 earlier, line moved against us, but I think if you can still get even money at least, it's a play.
So we all understand the pitcher ranking. The guy that claimed to have come up w/ the system had it suggested that 24 pitchers in the NL and 21 in the AL made sense because that represented 1-1/2 pitchers per team in each league. He liked the idea, he felt that the more filtering he did, the better the system performed. We can look at it from the perspective that using 21 AL and 24 NL pitchers makes the system more selective, and theoretically, more effective.
He had numbers showing that the system had a better ROR w/ the filters added. The Sagarin ratings weren't even part of the original system. I have asked questions, and some of them were answered a little vaguely, but once we agree that we like the way it's set up, we can just track it, and ask each other questions when we feel something's awry.
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
Munson, im still following along........ hopefully you guys will be in the "Black" very soon with this.....
remember my old system: todays plays would be (bos/det/sea/pitt/sf).. i looked at it, just for the heck of it....... i was really disappointed with the start this year for it ----------- as it looked so promising..... (+13 units) to end last season, (+11 units) in exhibition season, only to have it fall on its face to start 07 (-23 units).....
good luck.....
Munson, im still following along........ hopefully you guys will be in the "Black" very soon with this.....
remember my old system: todays plays would be (bos/det/sea/pitt/sf).. i looked at it, just for the heck of it....... i was really disappointed with the start this year for it ----------- as it looked so promising..... (+13 units) to end last season, (+11 units) in exhibition season, only to have it fall on its face to start 07 (-23 units).....
good luck.....
munson15
I want winners...
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
I really liked your system, too, I couldn't see how you could go wrong on all dogs, especially early when the lines should have been weak. My home dogs got killed the first month too, added to our losses it made for an ugly April.
Still working on the original bankroll, so even in the red I'm going to keep playing. Thanks for the encouragement, and keep up the good work on the venture over there.:cheers
Glad to hear you're still out there, SSI. I see you're doing very well across the street. Congrats.
I really liked your system, too, I couldn't see how you could go wrong on all dogs, especially early when the lines should have been weak. My home dogs got killed the first month too, added to our losses it made for an ugly April.
Still working on the original bankroll, so even in the red I'm going to keep playing. Thanks for the encouragement, and keep up the good work on the venture over there.:cheers
Bobby Bacala
EOG Senior Member
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
OK. I think we agree that the plays are
Toronto; Seattle; Pittsburgh.
OK. I think we agree that the plays are
Toronto; Seattle; Pittsburgh.
eman
EOG Senior Member
Bobby Bacala
EOG Senior Member
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
Good Luck to us. We need a 3-0 night.
Good Luck to us. We need a 3-0 night.
eman
EOG Senior Member
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
I agree this system has struggled so far this year!!!!
I agree this system has struggled so far this year!!!!
munson15
I want winners...
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
Not to be difficult Bobby, but I'd take 2-1 right now and be happy. GL!
munson15
I want winners...
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
Yes, I played FLORIDA anyway, but we all agree that the 3 you mentioned are the system plays.
Bobby Bacala
EOG Senior Member
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
Good Call on FLA. (Of course I didn't bet it)
Need Pittsburgh to come back. Lets go Pirates.
Good Call on FLA. (Of course I didn't bet it)
Need Pittsburgh to come back. Lets go Pirates.
Bobby Bacala
EOG Senior Member
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
2-1 on the system bets tonight. I'll take it.
2-1 on the system bets tonight. I'll take it.
munson15
I want winners...
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
Absolutely, let's keep it up, maybe now that we're all on the same page, we can churn out some winners.:cheers