NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

[Bailey]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

Ned,A question about NIT,CIT and CBI tournaments.In these tourneys there are some matchups like bracket buster games.Last night Weber/sd\\SD St,Northeastern/Wyoming,UTEP/Nevada and Kent St/Oakland were bracket buster type games with totals under 145.I played all 4 small and went 2-2.Do you have the database to check how this has done in past?I may be way off base with this but figured I'd ask.Todays bracket buster type games are
Bwl Gr/Creighton 131' W
Buffalo/Wich St 121' W
Mt St Marys/JMU 132' L
Austin Peay/Bradley 140 W
Belmont/Evansville 139' W
Portland/Pacific 128 W
Drake/Idaho 122' W
6-1 for day 8-3 for 2 days Ned said he had no data to support these tourneys but I had already played these for small amounts.I'll stop at 8-3 and keep my profit.

 

[Ned]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

nice job Bailey!

 

[doogie]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

Hey thanks for this , I can't wait to follow the games.
I gotta ask, SFA,'cuse show up on 3 systems...is that for the total, or the side or a combo?
Thanks

also same ques for the 2 sys ones.

 

[dogball]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

stupid question but where are the plays for today / tomorrow posted

 

[doogie]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

Gentlemen...Start your engines!!!!!

 

[HogsFan8]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

NED -

Before once the plays were hitting at over 70% you explained that it had lost its value, and therefore you would not continue to ride the plays...I was wondering if the same holds true for the opposite...let's say it starts off 1-7, would you then begin to raise your amount each game since it would HAVE to get hot? Thanks

 

[munson15]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

NED -

Before once the plays were hitting at over 70% you explained that it had lost its value, and therefore you would not continue to ride the plays...I was wondering if the same holds true for the opposite...let's say it starts off 1-7, would you then begin to raise your amount each game since it would HAVE to get hot? Thanks

Good question, Hogs, but I hope we're not anticipating going 1-7!2938u4ji23

 

[munson15]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

This Purdue game better not go OT.:devil:

 

[mofome]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

NED -

Before once the plays were hitting at over 70% you explained that it had lost its value, and therefore you would not continue to ride the plays...I was wondering if the same holds true for the opposite...let's say it starts off 1-7, would you then begin to raise your amount each game since it would HAVE to get hot? Thanks

good question.

:cheers

 

[bank--it]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

Overs 5-2 first 7 games. All i can say is I hope trend reverses tonight or it could be a bloodbath to start. But we'll keep the faith!!!

 

[munson15]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

Overs 5-2 first 7 games. All i can say is I hope trend reverses tonight or it could be a bloodbath to start. But we'll keep the faith!!!

I choose to look at from the perspective that all unders are 2-5 and we are just 1-2.:thumbsup

 

[Ned]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

If this starts at 1-7 I will not raise my wager, but I will continue playing

 

[Ned]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

Overs 5-2 first 7 games. All i can say is I hope trend reverses tonight or it could be a bloodbath to start. But we'll keep the faith!!!

boy some don't have the stomach for this I guess, 3 games in

 

[mofome]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

keeeeeeping the faith! Im all over the unders mr ned!

 

[bank--it]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

"boy some don't have the stomach for this I guess, 3 games in"

not a problem my friend, I was just making some friendly banter to our fellow nedophiles heh heh.

 

[FrankieGotti]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

Ned, thanks for the systems....I have played them as well....When I saw the lines posted I was hoping for lines to be a bit higher, I hope the books have not caught on to this.


GL the rest of tonight and tommorow.

 

[moocow]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

Seems the books have caught on..these totals have been going over basically by the end of the 1st halfs

 

[moocow]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

If these last 3 games go over would you recommend fading the system this year? Wondering for tomorrow.

 

[Hawks Fan]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

Seems the books have caught on..these totals have been going over basically by the end of the 1st halfs

Doubt that the books have caught on... If they have set these lines low just for Ned's system then they are going to be giving alot of cash away...

The public will be pulling cash out left and right as they bet the overs and if the lines are that artificially low because of Ned's system then the sharp players will be hitting the overs and killing the books also...

Just a bad day/night that's all... Only the first day...

 

[diogee]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

Doubt that the books have caught on... If they have set these lines low just for Ned's system then they are going to be giving alot of cash away...

The public will be pulling cash out left and right as they bet the overs and if the lines are that artificially low because of Ned's system then the sharp players will be hitting the overs and killing the books also...

Just a bad day/night that's all... Only the first day...

Totals with at least 57% on them are 9-2...as you said I doubt the books are enjoying this, especially with the number of totals where the lines moved up. I know I'm getting crushed all around with everything I touch so at least I am helping them recover some of that. 12io4j2w90

 

[Hawks Fan]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

If these last 3 games go over would you recommend fading the system this year? Wondering for tomorrow.

Relax, the first day is not even over yet... Systems have bad days also, not a guarantee it wins every day. Over the long haul it will win, no need to panic...

If you are that worried about losing or can't afford to lose then you should not be playing systems like this with all these plays...

 

[Hawks Fan]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

Totals with at least 57% on them are 9-2...as you said I doubt the books are enjoying this, especially with the number of totals where the lines moved up. I know I'm getting crushed all around with everything I touch so at least I am helping them recover some of that. 12io4j2w90

LOL! So am I, so am I... It will turn... No defense being played today, that's for sure...

 

[moocow]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

Unders still a play if they are 2-3 pts lower? Thought pub would drive these totals up :+clueless

 

[diogee]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

Unders still a play if they are 2-3 pts lower? Thought pub would drive these totals up :+clueless

3 pts is a decent move...if playing it you should play it smaller since some good value has been sucked out of it. I like to watch the Pinny lean as well...if I am going to play a game under 134 and I see Pinny has over 134 -110 I will wait until the lean disappears or I get a better line at one of my books.

 

[mofome]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

with ill, duke, ou, and vcu all going on now, we need to hope for one to come in. duke is a loss so that leaves 3.

 

[Hawks Fan]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

with ill, duke, ou, and vcu all going on now, we need to hope for one to come in. duke is a loss so that leaves 3.

VCU/UCLA had no play on it... I don't see any 3 point moves down on any of tonight's plays??? I see Duke closed 1 - 1.5 pts lower all others were same or went up...

 

[mofome]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

VCU/UCLA had no play on it... I don't see any 3 point moves down on any of tonight's plays??? I see Duke closed 1 - 1.5 pts lower all others were same or went up...

ah, ucla under was my own. my mistake. duke is an over. ill is an over. ou is our only hope.

 

[diogee]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

All these overs are simply unbelievable...I figured the tourney would have teams playing D?

 

[mofome]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

All the life has been taken out of me dio. was hoping for 45% at worst. Whatever we've got is just hard to watch so far. Not going to be able to bet much more, just watch and enjoy. Should have done the work and not been lazy.

 

[The_One]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

I think a lot has to do with the big underdogs keeping the games close.

 

[sparticus]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

LATE NIGHT SWEEP!!!

 

[ouch]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

All the life has been taken out of me dio. was hoping for 45% at worst. Whatever we've got is just hard to watch so far. Not going to be able to bet much more, just watch and enjoy. Should have done the work and not been lazy.

Somebody has to ask this, so it may as well be me.

Mofome, is the person posting under your name really you or is it the girl in your avatar? The reason I ask is because the bitching, moaning and complaining sounds just like the stereotypical woman suffering PMS.

Jesus, there is no doubt it has been a rough day. Unders have been killed up and down the board. It only means that the totals will go higher tomorrow. And it only means that regression to the norm will probably occur.

Ned seems to know what he is doing, as his past record here will indicate. Even he has an occasional bad day, and even if he goes 2 and 6 today, the first round is not over.

Abandon ship at your peril. You won't be happy with yourself if this thing turns around tomorrow, and you got off the boat today.

 

[Hawks Fan]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

Think it is the Favs or power teams not playing any defense and just using their athletic advantage to out score the teams..

Usually a dog will slow it down and play defense to keep the game close but not so far they are trying to out score the bigger teams... Makes nosense to me as they don't have the advantage...

 

[Hawks Fan]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

Going to be 1-7 for the day with Oklahoma going over by a 1/2 point.

Pretty much sums up how the day went... Hopefully the system will have a better day Friday...

The books got their ass beat today, that is for sure... Favs and overs all day long means books lost alot of money today....

Already have all my plays in for Friday.

Ned can you shine some light on today? Thinking things will turn tomorrow...

 

[moocow]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

Totals are way too low for first round maybe 2nd round system will shine

 

[mofome]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

Going to be 1-7 for the day with Oklahoma going over by a 1/2 point.

Pretty much sums up how the day went... Hopefully the system will have a better day Friday...

The books got their ass beat today, that is for sure... Favs and overs all day long means books lost alot of money today....

Already have all my plays in for Friday.

Ned can you shine some light on today? Thinking things will turn tomorrow...

1-7 on the first day im able to follow every single play. Odd luck.

I know ned feels bad which is the worst part. We will have more rounds this year and 10321938 more tourneys in the future. Hope ned isn't bummed and that people don't give him a hard time.

On to tomorrow.

:houra

 

[holdemnuts]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

JUST A SIDE NOTE:

SYR/SF AUSTIN SHOWS UP ON 3 SYSTEMS!!!

- Ned

Ned - I am not sure if you are talking about the UNDER that shows up on 3 systems or SF Austin + the points that shows up, but I have dug up some compelling evidence to play the over in this game. Aside from the generic fact that cuse plays no defense....

Games in which Syracuse is a favorite of 10-12 points: over is 2-0

Syracuse games in which the total is 130 - 139.5: over is 3-0

The numbers I am currently working with are -11.5 and over 131.5, which brackets in with these trends nicely. Hate to go against you, but might have to on this one. Hopefully the three systems you spoke of earlier referred to the point spread. GL

 

[Bugman]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

Big day today folks....peaks & valleys. :houra

 

[spongerat]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

i don't know about the over in syracuse, everyones saying over but the line moved down

 

[munson15]

Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

My own fault on Okl/Mor total, took a bad number trying to beat a line move and it went all the way to 137. Ned will grade it a loss, but that one could have gone either way at least.