Circa Survivor - Thanksgiving Weekend

100% LOCK there are some "No Pick" this week. I put the O/U at 3.5

Well, went under with 1 no pick, but unsurprisingly, someone did blow nearly 25K in implied value cruising on autopilot into the holiday (and a Happy Thanksgiving to one and all), and/or not reading the rules, and/or etc., etc.
 

pro analyser

EOG Dedicated
MotorCity-1 2. LIONS PK
MotorCity-10 2. LIONS PK
MotorCity-2 2. LIONS PK
MotorCity-3 2. LIONS PK
MotorCity-4 2. LIONS PK
MotorCity-5 2. LIONS PK
MotorCity-6 2. LIONS PK
MotorCity-7 2. LIONS PK
MotorCity-8 2. LIONS PK
MotorCity-9 2. LIONS PK

He has been loaded up on one side every week except a couple times.

His all-or-nothing strategy has been working.

Since he doesn't have KC available, It'll be interesting seeing if he has any variety Sunday.

Personally, I would have used one or two GB today. Maybe he has enough money and outs to hedge outside the contest with GB ML.
-25,000x!0=$250,000 down the drain,happy thanksgiving not.
 
fez beat micro fields of less than 200 people, like doyle brunson winning braclets of less than 30 people fields.

There's a Fezzic-2 in second place in Circa (5274 entries) and a FezzikC (using A, B C rather than 1, 2, 3 for the multiple entries) tied for 19th in the SuperContest Classic (1301 entries).

In my sheltered world in season (no sports betting radio, mostly keeping to myself and my own process, FWthat'sW, etc. . . . but I do monitor/track the competition in the contests) I haven't heard definitively whether that's Steve.

Hard to imagine that the books would let anyone register with the same or a confusingly substantially similar alias, especially for a well known figure. Even with a "c" in place of the "k."

Has anyone heard anything reliable on whether that's Fezzik currently having a good run?
 

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
Hard to imagine that the books would let anyone register with the same or a confusingly substantially similar alias, especially for a well known figure.
Not really a well-known figure, but I noticed this today in Circa's Survivor...

Bag of Picks-1 2. LIONS PK
BagofPicks-1 7. DOLPHINS PK
BagofPicks-5 7. DOLPHINS PK
 

mrbowling300

EOG Dedicated
There's a Fezzic-2 in second place in Circa (5274 entries) and a FezzikC (using A, B C rather than 1, 2, 3 for the multiple entries) tied for 19th in the SuperContest Classic (1301 entries).

In my sheltered world in season (no sports betting radio, mostly keeping to myself and my own process, FWthat'sW, etc. . . . but I do monitor/track the competition in the contests) I haven't heard definitively whether that's Steve.

Hard to imagine that the books would let anyone register with the same or a confusingly substantially similar alias, especially for a well known figure. Even with a "c" in place of the "k."

Has anyone heard anything reliable on whether that's Fezzik currently having a good run?
That is THE Fezzik in 2nd place in Circa Millions
 

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Circa Survivor currently has GOLDENBOY with 5 alive, CHAMPA BAY with 4 alive, no one with 3, a few duals and the rest singles.
 

IWishIWasAPro

EOG Master
If you do not have any of the four favorites available, the obvious move is to take the Packers. All 4 are unlikely to win, but if the Lions lose you eliminate over 56% of the competition. Over 80% if the Cowboys lose too.

Similar logic if you have SF & Miami available, but not the Cowboys or the Lions.
It’s high variance, but the risk versus reward makes the Packers an easy choice in that case too.

What a post.
 

homie1975

EOG Veteran
If you do not have any of the four favorites available, the obvious move is to take the Packers. All 4 are unlikely to win, but if the Lions lose you eliminate over 56% of the competition. Over 80% if the Cowboys lose too.

Similar logic if you have SF & Miami available, but not the Cowboys or the Lions.
It’s high variance, but the risk versus reward makes the Packers an easy choice in that case too.
amazing pre and post. bravo.

question on the bolded part. this would come into play if you had at least 3 entries left, yes?

on one you take SF.

on another you take Miami

then on the third you take the Packers right?

you were not suggesting to take the Packers if you had only 1 or 2 entries left, correct?
 

ComptrBob

EOG Master
After Week 12a, 149 entries survive to Week 12b, 1 with 5 alive, 1 with 4, 10 with 2, 120 are singles.

Equity per entry = $62,194.63, project 6.8 entries survive to the end.
 
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winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Well, went under with 1 no pick, but unsurprisingly, someone did blow nearly 25K in implied value cruising on autopilot into the holiday (and a Happy Thanksgiving to one and all), and/or not reading the rules, and/or etc., etc.

NOT SO FAST!

I still have this coming "week" too - could get 3 NO PICK selections
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Ah, but the Week 12a "No Pick" was "CBEPFD-1" who had the Lions available as well as the Packers, Jets, and Commanders.

However, 16 others had used all the 4 favorites and 314 had used 3 (all but one) of the favorites. No one had all 4 favorites available.

I was wondering who did not pick.

Hate to speak for others but I think we can be very sure had he submitted his pick: Lions............would have been it.

So odds are he would have been eliminated this week, anyway.
 
NOT SO FAST!

I still have this coming "week" too - could get 3 NO PICK selections


LOL . . . as the fate of Western civilization hangs in the balance . . . the Survivor rules have a specific definition for "week":

"There will be up to 20 selections made by each entry for this Contest. For Contest purposes, Thanksgiving Day + Black Friday (November 23 & 24, 2023) and Christmas Day (December 25, 2023) will be its own independent “Contest Week”. The other 18 “Contest Weeks” will otherwise correspond with the NFL regular season schedule."

So you're basically trying now to extend your original reference to "this week" to what are two separate weeks under the contest rules.

Over and above the point that you apparently were suggesting that people unfamiliar with the rules (specifically the Thanksgiving week rule) and/or caught up with the hustle and bustle of the holiday short week, etc. would fail to put in selections for the special Thanksgiving week.

Again, with the fate of the west hanging in the balance, lol.
 

Crazy Pete

EOG Addicted
amazing pre and post. bravo.

question on the bolded part. this would come into play if you had at least 3 entries left, yes?

on one you take SF.

on another you take Miami

then on the third you take the Packers right?

you were not suggesting to take the Packers if you had only 1 or 2 entries left, correct?
No, I did not assume you had three entries left. If you do have three entries left, yours is a good idea.
Basically, my point was that if you have four longshots that were in the same range, might as well take the long shot that eliminates by far more than anyone else.

Why did I say to take Green Bay if you had the 49ers or Miami available?
I’m trying to recall my logic, but I cannot do it. It would make sense if GB would’ve eliminated 80% of the competition, or if the money line was close to even, but it’s not.

I strongly stand behind the first paragraph-the Packers were by far the best choice if you have to pick between for long shots.
I added that last paragraph quickly at the end, but I cannot defend it now😱.
1st paragraph was sharp.
Second paragraph was Crazy 🤷
 

homie1975

EOG Veteran
No, I did not assume you had three entries left. If you do have three entries left, yours is a good idea.
Basically, my point was that if you have four longshots that were in the same range, might as well take the long shot that eliminates by far more than anyone else.

Why did I say to take Green Bay if you had the 49ers or Miami available?
I’m trying to recall my logic, but I cannot do it. It would make sense if GB would’ve eliminated 80% of the competition, or if the money line was close to even, but it’s not.

I strongly stand behind the first paragraph-the Packers were by far the best choice if you have to pick between for long shots.
I added that last paragraph quickly at the end, but I cannot defend it now😱.
1st paragraph was sharp.
Second paragraph was Crazy 🤷
you are quite sharp either way
 

ComptrBob

EOG Master
However, 16 others had used all the 4 favorites and 314 had used 3 (all but one) of the favorites. No one had all 4 favorites available.

I mildly wondered with only 16 having just dogs to pick, why did 18 choose dogs (Packers 12, Jets 5, Seahawks 1)? Got a partial answer from twitter, one guy mis-clicked "Packers" instead of "Lions". See below:








Greg Jones

@LAJoneser
·
1h
Replying to @SurvivorAtlas and @Tonysmarkettips
Det was the only favorite I had on Thanksgiving so I took them. Thought I was dead until proxy called me this afternoon to get my pick. I miss clicked and took Green Bay by accident. Free Rolling now. Go Titans (along with a big bet on Carolina +4)
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
LOL . . . as the fate of Western civilization hangs in the balance . . . the Survivor rules have a specific definition for "week":

"There will be up to 20 selections made by each entry for this Contest. For Contest purposes, Thanksgiving Day + Black Friday (November 23 & 24, 2023) and Christmas Day (December 25, 2023) will be its own independent “Contest Week”. The other 18 “Contest Weeks” will otherwise correspond with the NFL regular season schedule."

So you're basically trying now to extend your original reference to "this week" to what are two separate weeks under the contest rules.

Over and above the point that you apparently were suggesting that people unfamiliar with the rules (specifically the Thanksgiving week rule) and/or caught up with the hustle and bustle of the holiday short week, etc. would fail to put in selections for the special Thanksgiving week.

Again, with the fate of the west hanging in the balance, lol.

Turns out it did not matter - ZERO "No Picks" for the "week" this weekend
 

homie1975

EOG Veteran
Ah, but the Week 12a "No Pick" was "CBEPFD-1" who had the Lions available as well as the Packers, Jets, and Commanders.

However, 16 others had used all the 4 favorites and 314 had used 3 (all but one) of the favorites. No one had all 4 favorites available.

sorry for the dumb question but how are you finding the info that this contestant had the Lions, Packers, Jets and Commanders available?

are you going to the CIRCA website and pulling down that Godzilla PDF and looking all of this up manually ?
 

ComptrBob

EOG Master
sorry for the dumb question but how are you finding the info that this contestant had the Lions, Packers, Jets and Commanders available?

are you going to the CIRCA website and pulling down that Godzilla PDF and looking all of this up manually ?

It could be done manually by comparing the selection PDF sheet to the availability PDF sheet and finding the missing selection. Once the missing selection is found , its easy to see which picks were available.

However, I used Adobe software to convert the PDF files to XLS (Excel) and then use Visual Basic routines and filters to derive some statistics as well as find the missing pick.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
It could be done manually by comparing the selection PDF sheet to the availability PDF sheet and finding the missing selection. Once the missing selection is found , its easy to see which picks were available.

However, I used Adobe software to convert the PDF files to XLS (Excel) and then use Visual Basic routines and filters to derive some statistics as well as find the missing pick.

I am certain Pauly Howard is either: IRONDOC OR BagofPicks.............I think he is Iron
 

railbird

EOG Master
Ah, but the Week 12a "No Pick" was "CBEPFD-1" who had the Lions available as well as the Packers, Jets, and Commanders.

However, 16 others had used all the 4 favorites and 314 had used 3 (all but one) of the favorites. No one had all 4 favorites available.
probably a vaccinated liberal that is in the hospital
 
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