Circa Survivor begins with an overlay of $1,920,000.00!

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Early, looking way forward to Week 15
Game#, ML favs (Updated Pinnacle+5Dimes lines) plus availability as of start of Week 14 (ARI, TB, SF, MIA, CLE, MIN. PHI are likely choices):

321 Arizona -780 at Detroit (13)
330 Tampa Bay -496 vs New Orleans (4)
324 SF -356 vs Atlanta (15)
310 Miami -374 vs NY Jets (16)
306 Cleveland -255 vs LV (1)
331 Minnesota -180 at Chicago (5)
331 Philadephia-213 vs WFT (13)
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Very early, looking way forward to Week 16 Christmas games
Game#, ML favs (my estimates) plus availability as of start of Week 14 (GB, ARI are likely choices):

GB -260 vs Cleveland (10)
Arizona -190 vs Indianapolis (13)
Tenn -110 (19) vs 49ers -110 (15)
 
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railbird

EOG Master
Very early, looking way forward to Week 16 Christmas games
Game#, ML favs (my estimates) plus availability as of start of Week 14 (GB, ARI are likely choices):

GB -240 vs Cleveland (11)
Arizona -180 vs Indianapolis (13)
Tenn -115 vs 49ers (23)
whats your over-under on amount of winners?
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
whats your over-under on amount of winners?

Some entrants are down to only TEN and GB or ARI as choices for Christmas Games. I would guess a mild upset will reduce the field by at least 30-50%. I estimate that most will survive Weeks 14 and 15, but some will run out of Top 10 or Top 15 teams. Maybe only 5 to 8 survive thru Christmas to Week 16 (Sun/Mon).
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Week 14 Picks: My predictions were: GB(1), TEN(4), LAC(6), KC, DEN(9), SEA(2), NO(1) as the likely choices)

OK - so if any of these go down - which ones are the most likely to lose?

Saints immediately jumps off the page here. Seattle will make people sweat. Chargers play every game close and think this one will be, too.

Think: Packers and Broncos both win. If Titans wanna have any post-season success they better win here - think they will but think it could get dicey
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
OK - so if any of these go down - which ones are the most likely to lose?

Saints immediately jumps off the page here. Seattle will make people sweat. Chargers play every game close and think this one will be, too.

Think: Packers and Broncos both win. If Titans wanna have any post-season success they better win here - think they will but think it could get dicey
I agree with you - GB/Denver/Tenn. Want no part of the Saints (or any dome team playing outside in Dec)
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Week 14: TEN, SEA and NO all win handily, 7 advance, 15 (DEN (9), LAC (6)) pending in PM games along with GB (1) in SNF.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Week 14 Final: all 23 advance, TEN(4), SEA(2) and NO(1) all win handily early, DEN (9) LAC (6) win handily in the PM games, and GB (1) winning in SNF.
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
For Week 15: ARI, SF, MIA, TB, CLE, MIN, PHI are the likely choices, the majority of picks should be on the first 3.
One entrant doesn't have any of these top 3 available and one may want to save ARI so MIN and PHI might have one pick.

Looking way forward to Week 16 Christmas games
Game#, ML favs (5Dimes estimates) plus availability as of start of Week 14 (I predict GB(10), ARI(12), TEN(1) or SF(1) are likely choices):

GB -275 vs Cleveland (10)
Arizona -220 vs Indianapolis (13)
Tenn -110 (19) vs 49ers -110 (15)

To see what's ahead, 2 entrants only have GB available for Christmas, One of "Roll the Iron Dice" doesn't have GB or ARI, and only "DRAGON 28" has both GB and ARI,
:

Name Christmas teams
CHRIS PIPER GB
ZENYATTA GB

2017TLC GB,TEN
MYCOOL GB,SF
Potato Kmish ARI,SF
PUKAPUP ARI,TEN
RETURN OF SURVIVOR ARI,TEN
Roll The Iron Dice SF,TEN ***
SCRUM ARI,TEN
THE DELTA CHUCKS GB,TEN

737KEVIN ARI,SF,TEN
Buffalooooo ARI,SF,TEN
EVANS GAMING ARI,SF,TEN
On Top 247 GB,SF,TEN
PARLAY G GB,SF,TEN
PUKAPUP ARI,SF,TEN
REAL MAN WOULD ARI,SF,TEN
Roll The Iron Dice GB,SF,TEN
STRUCTURAL JEFF ARI,CLE,TEN
SYRACUSE HAWKEYES GB,SF,TEN
The Heist ARI,SF,TEN
V-Neck Sweater ARI,SF,TEN

DRAGON 28 ARI,GB,SF,TEN
 
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blueline

EOG Master
if anyone was interested in how hedging can be applied Joe Peta breaks it down on A Numbers Game staring about 62 mins in
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
if anyone was interested in how hedging can be applied Joe Peta breaks it down on A Numbers Game staring about 62 mins in

Unfortunately, this approach is flawed in some rare cases.

He goes out of his way to discuss the horrendous result of a tie (probability of a tie is around 0.4%) where the ML bet is just refunded, but he is out of the contest.

However he appears to ignore the disaster if the Lions hedge works, but all or all but one of the other 5 Survivor picks also lose (no immediate need to hedge on KC in the late SNF game). He wins $50K on the LIons, but loses $60K if all lose (wins $20K if all win) on the other picks. In this case, his only hope would be to hedge on KC ML @ -375 i.e. bet around $170K to win $45K, net = -10K + 45K = 35K or split the pot if KC loses net = -10K + 214K - 170K = 34K.

A worse situation occurs if 4 of 5 "other" early picks lose, assume equal size bets, say TB @ -500,, 12K bet, wins, so net profit = +50K - 48K + 2.4K and the KC game is meaningless for contest purposes. Choosing the 5 bet sizes to maximize the best net profit in the 1-4 case results in a 5.685k win.

Also losing 3 of 5 could result in a smaller hedge profit around 20k (50k - 36k + 6k). These are rare around 1.6% chance of exactly 1-4 on early other hedges, 9.6$ chance of 2 -3, but clearly represent a significant chance of not producing the expected minimum profit.
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
For Circa survivor:

Solely for Contest purposes, all games are “action” despite any change in a game’s location. If a game deviates from its originally scheduled time and location, the game must be completed by 1:59 AM on Wednesday of the Contest Week in order for it to be applied towards Contest standings. Games that are not completed within the “Contest Week” will be graded a loss for the Contest and the entry will be eliminated. A “Contest Week” shall mean seven (7) consecutive calendar days starting on Wednesday at 2:00 AM and ending on the following Wednesday at 1:59 AM, with the exception of the Contest Week that includes Thanksgiving Day and Christmas Week and the Contest Week that immediately follows.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
My predictions (based on MLs and teams available) for Week 15 ( MIA(12), SF(8), ARI(1), PHI(1), MIN(1)) (some may go with PHI or JAX):

Edit: Actual Selection count released: MIA(12), SF(3), ARI(5), MIN(1), TB(1), JAX(1))

Entrant # WK15 Pred -> ACTUAL (11 correct predictions)
2017TLC 1 MIA -> MIA
737KEVIN 1 SF -> MIA
Buffalooooo 5 MIA -> MIA
CHRIS PIPER 1 MIA -> MIA
DRAGON 28 2 ARI -> ARI
EVANS GAMING 1 MIA -> MIA
MYCOOL 1 MIA -> MIA
On Top 247 2 MIA -> SF
PARLAY G 1 SF -> MIA
Potato Kmish 5 SF -> ARI
PUKAPUP 1 MIA -> MIN
PUKAPUP 3 SF -> ARI
REAL MAN WOULD 1 SF ->ARI
RETURN OF SURVIVOR 5 MIA -> MIA
Roll The Iron Dice 4 SF -> SF
Roll The Iron Dice 5 SF -> TB
SCRUM 6 MIN -> ARI
STRUCTURAL JEFF 1 MIA -> MIA
SYRACUSE HAWKEYES 1 SF -> MIA
THE DELTA CHUCKS 1 PHI -> JAX
The Heist 2 MIA -> MIA
V-Neck Sweater 3 MIA -> SF
ZENYATTA 3 MIA -> MIA
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Edit: Early Christmas week 16 availability, sorted by first team name: most likely ARI(8), GB(8)):

** denotes eliminated in week 15

Name Christmas teams available

STRUCTURAL JEFF ARI,CLE,TEN
737KEVIN ARI,SF,TEN
Buffalooooo ARI,SF,TEN
EVANS GAMING ARI,SF,TEN
PUKAPUP ARI,TEN
The Heist ARI,SF,TEN
RETURN OF SURVIVOR ARI,TEN
V-Neck Sweater ARI,TEN

CHRIS PIPER GB
ZENYATTA GB

MYCOOL GB,SF
**DRAGON 28 GB,SF,TEN
PARLAY G GB,SF,TEN
SYRACUSE HAWKEYES GB,SF,TEN
2017TLC GB,TEN
On Top 247 GB,TEN
Roll The Iron Dice GB,TEN
**THE DELTA CHUCKS GB,TEN

**Potato Kmish SF

**REAL MAN WOULD SF,TEN
**Roll The Iron Dice SF,TEN
**PUKAPUP SF,TEN

**SCRUM TEN
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Morning games: 12 survive MIA(12) and advance, 6 ARI(5), JAX(1) eliminated.
Afternoon: 3 more survive SF(3) and advance,

SNF: TB(1) and MNF: MIN(1) pending.

Equal equity for an entry is now $352,941,18.

Eliminated;
DRAGON 28-2 ARI
Potato Kmish-5 ARI
PUKAPUP-3 ARI
REAL MAN WOULD-1 ARI
SCRUM-6 ARI

THE DELTA CHUCKS-1 JAX
 
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mrbowling300

EOG Dedicated
I was at the Lions game vs Cards today. The 5 who had AZ never had a chance. AZ was unprepared and were probably looking past Detroit to next week.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Morning games: 12 survive MIA(12) and advance, 6 ARI(5), JAX(1) eliminated.
Afternoon: 3 more survive SF(3) and advance,
SNF: 1 eliminated TB(1)

MNF: MIN(1) pending. Either 15 or 16 will survive.

Equal equity for an entry is now $375,000,00. No multiple entries left.

Eliminated;
DRAGON 28-2 ARI
Potato Kmish-5 ARI
PUKAPUP-3 ARI
REAL MAN WOULD-1 ARI
SCRUM-6 ARI

THE DELTA CHUCKS-1 JAX

ROLL THE DICE-5 TB
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Well this is probably where it comes crashing down for me. It's a $25 pool with almost 1000 entries, I obviously didn't think I was going to get this far so up until last Sunday I wasn't really putting a whole lot of thought in to it just playing week to week trying to avoid being on the same side as the majority of other contestants. We're now down to 8 and I've got it all mapped out through week 18! I know it's not huge payout like Circa but 25k is still I nice little chunk of change.

Week 14 Packers at home vs the Bears
Week 15 Dolphins at home vs the Jets
Week 16 Chargers on the road vs Texans
Week 17 Pats at home vs Jags
Week 18 Titans on the road vs Texans

Week 18 could definitely change depending on whos playing for what that week.

What could possibly go wrong? haha

Update on Ruca's contest

Week 14 Packers at home vs the Bears W 45-30
Week 15 Dolphins at home vs the Jets W 31-24
Week 16 Chargers on the road vs Texans LAC ML = -473 at Pinnacle
Week 17 Pats at home vs Jags Projected ML = -600
Week 18 Titans on the road vs Texans Projected ML = -300 (depends on playoff scenario)
 
Update on Ruca's contest

Week 14 Packers at home vs the Bears W 45-30
Week 15 Dolphins at home vs the Jets W 31-24
Week 16 Chargers on the road vs Texans LAC ML = -473 at Pinnacle
Week 17 Pats at home vs Jags Projected ML = -600
Week 18 Titans on the road vs Texans Projected ML = -300 (depends on playoff scenario)
Houston getting a rare W and the Chargers losing a heartbreaker to KC I think plays out well for my week 16 pick.
We lost one this week with still one pending.

San Francisco 49ers
4
Miami Dolphins
2
Minnesota Vikings
1
Arizona Cardinals
1
 
Interesting how BetUs is handling these Tuesday games in their Survivor Pools. They've put these 2 games into next weeks lineup and 2 contestants have picked the Eagles.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Week 16 Christmas games
I predict these likely choices:
8 will take GB. Four have the ARI, SF, TEN as choices. I think all 4 will take SF (Edit: 3 took SF, 1 took ARI). Four others seem to be stuck with ARI (1 took TEN).
3 eliminated, 1 advances, 8 GB pending, 4 ARI pending.

** eliminated in Xmas Pick.

Entrant Pick Actual
2017TLC 1 GB GB
** 737KEVIN 1 SF SF
** Buffalooooo 5 SF SF
CHRIS PIPER 1 GB GB
** EVANS GAMING 1 SF SF
MYCOOL 1 GB GB
On Top 247 2 GB GB
PARLAY G 1 GB GB
PUKAPUP 1 ARI ARI
RETURN OF SURVIVOR 5 ARI TEN
Roll The Iron Dice 4 GB GB
STRUCTURAL JEFF 1 ARI ARI
SYRACUSE HAWKEYES 1 GB GB
The Heist 2 SF ARI
V-Neck Sweater 3 ARI ARI
ZENYATTA 3 GB GB

ML favs (Pinnacle lines) plus availability as of start of Week 16:
Thurs, Dec 23:
49ers -155 (7) at Tenn +140 (13) TEN WINS
Sat, Dec 25:
GB -334 (8) vs Cleveland +284 (1)
Arizona -108 (8) vs Indianapolis -102 (0)
 
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railbird

EOG Master
Week 16 Christmas games
I predict these likely choices:
Four have the ARI, SF, TEN as choices. I think all 4 will take SF. Four others seem to be stuck with ARI.

Entrant Pick
2017TLC 1 GB
737KEVIN 1 SF
Buffalooooo 5 SF
CHRIS PIPER 1 GB
EVANS GAMING 1 SF
MYCOOL 1 GB
On Top 247 2 GB
PARLAY G 1 GB
PUKAPUP 1 ARI
RETURN OF SURVIVOR 5 ARI
Roll The Iron Dice 4 GB
STRUCTURAL JEFF 1 ARI
SYRACUSE HAWKEYES 1 GB
The Heist 2 SF
V-Neck Sweater 3 ARI
ZENYATTA 3 GB

ML favs (Pinnacle lines) plus availability as of start of Week 16:
Thurs, Dec 23:
49ers -165 (7) at Tenn +148 (13)
Sat, Dec 25:
GB -345 (8) vs Cleveland +292 (1)
Arizona -115 (8) vs Indianapolis +104 (0)
i would take a dog for a walkoff win, like home dog Tenn or indy.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Week 16 Christmas games
I predict these likely choices:
Four have the ARI, SF, TEN as choices. I think all 4 will take SF. Four others seem to be stuck with ARI.

Entrant Pick
2017TLC 1 GB
737KEVIN 1 SF
Buffalooooo 5 SF
CHRIS PIPER 1 GB
EVANS GAMING 1 SF
MYCOOL 1 GB
On Top 247 2 GB
PARLAY G 1 GB
PUKAPUP 1 ARI
RETURN OF SURVIVOR 5 ARI
Roll The Iron Dice 4 GB
STRUCTURAL JEFF 1 ARI
SYRACUSE HAWKEYES 1 GB
The Heist 2 SF
V-Neck Sweater 3 ARI
ZENYATTA 3 GB

ML favs (Pinnacle lines) plus availability as of start of Week 16:
Thurs, Dec 23:
49ers -155 (7) at Tenn +140 (13)
Sat, Dec 25:
GB -334 (8) vs Cleveland +284 (1)
Arizona -108 (8) vs Indianapolis -102 (0)

I agree that the 8 who have GB will take them. Those with AZ left are gonna be sweating big time although knowing GB goes first and they will know that result they do set themselves up for a nice hedge it's just it will be hard to hedge anywhere near the amount they would want to do.
 

railbird

EOG Master
Tennessee guy is in buisness, could walk it off for a christmas present, if Browns beat overrated content packers, and colts stay hot, and AZ missing hopkins, murray limited
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
The TEN guy is ironically "RETURN OF SURVIVOR-5". If he is the sole survivor, he will continue picking and has a free roll to get the $1M bonus by picking TB in Week 18 and going 20-0.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Tennessee guy is in buisness, could walk it off for a christmas present, if Browns beat overrated content packers, and colts stay hot, and AZ missing hopkins, murray limited
Hopkins hasn’t done much this year and is out for the regular season now. Your scenario could play out though as GB is in a fight.
 
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