Circa Survivor begins with an overlay of $1,920,000.00!

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Going into the 2 late games, Circa Survivor Equity per entry is now $50,000.00, 21 have advanced, 14 eliminated (Lions 14) ( 0 No Picks), 99 entries pending (DAL 80, LV 4, BUF 15).

Now left with 2 with three entries and 8 with two entries.
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Going into the late game, Circa Survivor Equity per entry is now $150,000.00, 25 have advanced, 94 eliminated (DET 14, DAL 80) ( 0 No Picks), 15 entries pending (BUF 15).

Now left with 0 with three entries and 3 with two entries (two through and one has Bills pending).
 
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railbird

EOG Master
Going into the late game, Circa Survivor Equity per entry is now $150,000.00, 25 have advanced, 94 eliminated (DET 14, DAL 80) ( 0 No Picks), 15 entries pending (BUF 15).

Now left with 0 with three entries and 2 with two entries (one through and one has Bills pending).
equity is going up faster than bitcoin
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Circa Survivor Equity per entry is $150,000.00, 40 have advanced, 94 eliminated (DET 14, DAL 80) ( 0 No Picks).

Now left with only 0.98% of original entries, 0 with three entries and 3 with two entries. Pick #13 will be made for Week 12 Sun/Mon games.
 

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
Survivors with the Raiders hit a 20-1 yesterday with 80 on Dallas and 4 on LV...I wasn't one of them.

I think entrant Margie had all 3 on Dallas.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
wow no buccaneers?

Only 10 had the Bucs available and they are only -157 ML @ Pinny. Also if you use TB and KC before the last pick, you have no shot at the $1M bonus (need to use one of the Super Bowl teams from last year on Pick #20.)
 
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Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
BRILLIANT move by the 2 taking Seattle

With that game going Monday they are perfectly set up for a possible hedge to make some money no matter what happens
this sounds good but in reality....who in this contest has the resources to "hedge" in terms of getting down high five figures to make this hedge worth while.

Frank B and Anthony Curtis would be one but Tenn ended their dream last week.
 

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
11 picks among 40 contestants seems odd.

I think you'd be surprised how many people would be able to properly hedge their contest action if/when necessary.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Going into PM games, Circa Survivor Equity per entry is $193,548.39, 19 have advanced, 9 eliminated (HOU 1, PHI 6, CAR 2) ( 0 No Picks), 12 pending (LAC 1, 49ers 5, BAL 4, SEA 2).

Now left with only 0.78% of original entries, Roll the Iron Dice with two entries through, PUKAPUP pending with 49ers.
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Going into SNF, Circa Survivor Equity per entry is $200,000.00, 24 have advanced, 10 eliminated (HOU 1, PHI 6, CAR 2, LAC 1) ( 0 No Picks), 6 pending (BAL 4, SEA 2).

Now left with only 0.74% of original entries, Roll the Iron Dice and PUKAPUP with two entries through.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Week 12 Final: Circa Survivor Equity per entry is $214,285.71, 28 have advanced, 12 eliminated (HOU 1, PHI 6, CAR 2, LAC 1, SEA 2) ( 0 No Picks).

Now left with only 0.686% of original entries,

Roll the Iron Dice and PUKAPUP with two entries through.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
New team availability table going into Week 13 (I'll compare this with the Circa official one, Edit: See errors in post below)

BUF 0
DAL 0
CLE 1
LAR 1
NE 1
IND 2
CIN 7
KC 8
TB 8
MIN 10
BAL 12
CHI 13
DEN 13
GB 13
PIT 13
CAR 16
ARI 17
SF 18
LV 24
MIA 24
LAC 25
ATL 27
JAX 27
DET 28
HOU 28
NO 28
NYG 28
NYJ 28
PHI 28
SEA 28
TEN 28
WSH 28
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Week 13 Game#, ML favs (Pinnacle lines) plus availability (Corrected avail numbers, ARI, PHI, MIN, BAL, SF are likely choices):

472 Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Rams -672 (0)
456 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -509 vs Atlanta Falcons (7)
458 Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs -446 (8)
460 Indianapolis Colts -373 vs Houston Texans (1)
454 Arizona Cardinals -354 vs Chicago Bears (17)
452 Minnesota Vikings -298 vs Detroit Lions (10)
462 Philadelphia Eagles -266 vs New York Jets (28)
302 Dallas Cowboys -192 vs New Orleans Saints (0)
470 Baltimore Ravens -178 vs Pittsburgh Steelers (12)
474 San Francisco 49ers -178 vs Seattle Seahawks (19)
464 Los Angeles Chargers vs Cincinnati Bengals -165 (8)
466 New York Giants vs Miami Dolphins -147 (24)
468 Washington Football Team vs Las Vegas Raiders -144 (24)
476 New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills -144 (0)
 
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winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Had I still been alive I had the Rams saved for this week. Not sure how many have them left but this is a great week to take them and the ONE person who has them left should take them and probably will. As bad as the Rams have looked lately - if they lose THIS game - they are really f****d!

The 2 who still have Indy will take them (unless 1 also has the Rams)

We are starting the AZ D this week against Da Bears and they should be a great pick but Murray coming back from a long absence might make things interesting

The 8 with Tampa & KC might use them but also need to think about saving them for Week 18

Don't trust: Iggles, Vikings, Ravens, Miami, SF

I already bet Raiders -2.5 and like them here. A LOT! Raiders feel WTF "sold them out" on the Gruden thing and I think they really get motivated. I just need Heinecke to have a great game since Rodgers has a BYE and we need to start Taylor in a huge game for us
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
I had four errors in transcribing the matrix by hand (assigned pick was off by one team) so 8 totals were off by one:

LAR 1 -> 0, LV 24 -> 25
IND 2 -> 1, JAX 27 -> 28
CHI 13 -> 12, CIN 7 -> 8
SF 18 -> 19, TB 8 -> 7

I updated the Week 13 schedule.
 
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I'm still alive in the BetUs $25 Survivor pool, pays 25k, only 11 of us are left. Looks like I'll be choosing between Philly and Minny this week.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Week 13, going into SNF, Equity is $260,869.57, 19 have advanced, 5 eliminated (MIN 5) ( 0 No Picks), 4 pending (KC 4).

Roll the Iron Dice is through with both plays on the Eagles and PUKAPUP with KC pending.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Week 14 team availability matrix

BUF 0
DAL 0
IND 0 (bye)
LAR 0
CLE 1
NE 1 (bye)
KC 2
TB 4
MIN 5
CIN 7
CHI 9
DEN 10
BAL 11
GB 11
PIT 12
ARI 13
CAR 13
PHI 13 (bye)
SF 15
MIA 16 (bye)
LAC 20
ATL 22
LV 22
DET 23
HOU 23
JAX 23
NO 23
NYG 23
NYJ 23
SEA 23
TEN 23
WSH 23
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Looking forward to Week 14
Game#, ML favs (Updated Pinnacle lines) plus availability (GB, TEN, LAC, KC, DEN, SEA, NO are the likely choices):

128 Green Bay -645 vs Chicago (11)
112 Tennessee -439 vs Jacksonville (23)
124 LA Chargers -441 vs NY Giants (20)
106 Kansas City -440 vs Las Vegas (2)
122 Denver -455 vs Detroit (10)
119 Seattle -366 at Houston Texans (23)
107 New Orleans -229 at NY Jets (23)
 
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Well this is probably where it comes crashing down for me. It's a $25 pool with almost 1000 entries, I obviously didn't think I was going to get this far so up until last Sunday I wasn't really putting a whole lot of thought in to it just playing week to week trying to avoid being on the same side as the majority of other contestants. We're now down to 8 and I've got it all mapped out through week 18! I know it's not huge payout like Circa but 25k is still I nice little chunk of change.

Week 14 Packers at home vs the Bears
Week 15 Dolphins at home vs the Jets
Week 16 Chargers on the road vs Texans
Week 17 Pats at home vs Jags
Week 18 Titans on the road vs Texans

Week 18 could definitely change depending on whos playing for what that week.

What could possibly go wrong? haha
 
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