MrOverUnder86
EOG Enthusiast
Record: 92-57-3, 61.7% (Over/Unders: 16-9, Sides: 11-8-1, Teasers: 24-16, Props: 13-15-2, ML: 2-0, 2nd Half: 3-4, Live: 23-5)
Amount: +$397
(Parlays: 1-1, not reflected in my overall $$ amount or record)
7-4 last week but basically even thanks to a fluke bad beat, as all of those who took the Giants in Jacksonville last week painfully experienced, and since that was my best bet, that cost me from having a huuuge week. Even so, you accept it and move on to the next, and in this case, that?s Week 14. Definitely a potential slate so let?s move on to it?
ATL/GB O53 (Bought 2 P) - $135 to win $90
Analysis: I don?t like to buy more than a half or full point, but being my best bet of the week, I think I have a really good vibe on this third-to-last Monday Night game of the year, and thus, I really feel those extra two points may come into play. When the line for a matchup soars into the 50?s, pretty much anything can go, as there can be a wide-range of potential 31-21/34-20/30-20 outcomes, so I just want to protect myself as much as possible. In any event, this should be a really, really fun game on MNF this week. You have Green Bay, one of the consensus best teams in the entire NFL, which isn?t really surprising at all when they have the amazing offense that they possess. Going up against Atlanta?s swiss cheese defense should be no problem for them, especially at home where they?re always very live. As for the Falcons? offense, yes, it?s a fact that Matt Ryan, who is still underrated in my opinion, isn?t as effective on the road as he is at home, but this is a talented unit as well playing for their playoff lives, and thus, I think they can provide us with a spirited effort -- I?m not sure if they can backdoor the high line they were given by the linesmakers, but they should at least score into the 20?s, and as long as Green Bay does its usual thing on offense, then we should be good. As illustrated with the two extra points, however, it could be really, really close.
TB/DET O41 (Bought ? P) - $54 to win $45
Analysis: Hilariously, the Bucs are still in the NFC South hunt despite a dismal season, although those odds are highly slim with only four games remaining. Even so, this newfound life actually has the two-win Bucs playing meaningful football still at this late point in the season, which should help lead them be competitive this afternoon in Detroit. On paper, their offense is actually pretty good with Josh McCown under center, as Mike Evans has been on fire, while Vincent Jackson is certainly a talented WR himself, and now it appears forgotten RB Doug Martin is getting back in rhythm. They?re tasked with facing a tough D, but with the line as low as it is, all they really need is a couple of TDs. I have confidence the Lions? high-powered offense will continue to make its mark, just as they did significantly on Thanksgiving, which should hopefully lead to at least a 24-17 score in this old divisional rivalry.
Giants -1 @ Titans - $88 to win $80
Analysis: Yes, I?m giving the Giants another shot this week. It looks like a very opportune spot for them to pick up a win, and despite last week?s immensely disappointing loss in Jacksonville last week, they still played well for the majority of the contest and were overpowering the Jaguars with ease. Perhaps losing that game will help them maintain a more consistent sense of urgency, which could lead to a big day for the offense. Luckily, Odell Beckham has been playing excellent since making his season debut and has shown no signs of slowing down. Rashad Jennings is banged up but he?s still playing, which hopefully helps solidify the running game. Above all, though, is the fact that the Giants are facing rookie QB Zach Mettenberger, who hasn?t really shown much, let alone any consistency at all. Yes, it?s a meaningless game for both squads, but the Titans are in a bigger mess than the Giants are, and based on how relatively solid New York has looked the past several weeks (Ex. Almost beating Dallas two weeks ago; they probably should?ve won that game as well), as long as they give us one of those recent efforts, and remain consistent, they should win this game. The Titans are a mess and may continue to lose out winding down the stretch, not to mention while being banged up (Their top three receivers are out!). Giants, meanwhile, are probably a bit better than their record, and obviously have to be starving for a win at this point.
Buccaneers +11 (Bought ?) @ Lions - $30 to win $25
(Analysis pretty much the same as I wrote in taking the over for this game. I just think Tampa Bay can hang in there and provide a competitive effort; they?re actually not as bad as their record -- certainly not on paper, so maybe this is the game they finally shine)
Joe Flacco O21? Completions - $23 to win $20
BAL +16, PIT +16, TB +23?, DEN +3 - $39 to win $30
BAL +16, DEN +3, ATL/GB O42?, Thunder -4? (From 12/5) - $33 to win $25
DEN -2?, Cavs -2? (From 12/4) - $26 to win $20
BAL +16, CAR/NO O37?, TB +23?, SF/OAK U53? - $26 to win $20
Good luck to everyone today and remember, I'll probably add some more action throughout the day.
Amount: +$397
(Parlays: 1-1, not reflected in my overall $$ amount or record)
7-4 last week but basically even thanks to a fluke bad beat, as all of those who took the Giants in Jacksonville last week painfully experienced, and since that was my best bet, that cost me from having a huuuge week. Even so, you accept it and move on to the next, and in this case, that?s Week 14. Definitely a potential slate so let?s move on to it?
ATL/GB O53 (Bought 2 P) - $135 to win $90
Analysis: I don?t like to buy more than a half or full point, but being my best bet of the week, I think I have a really good vibe on this third-to-last Monday Night game of the year, and thus, I really feel those extra two points may come into play. When the line for a matchup soars into the 50?s, pretty much anything can go, as there can be a wide-range of potential 31-21/34-20/30-20 outcomes, so I just want to protect myself as much as possible. In any event, this should be a really, really fun game on MNF this week. You have Green Bay, one of the consensus best teams in the entire NFL, which isn?t really surprising at all when they have the amazing offense that they possess. Going up against Atlanta?s swiss cheese defense should be no problem for them, especially at home where they?re always very live. As for the Falcons? offense, yes, it?s a fact that Matt Ryan, who is still underrated in my opinion, isn?t as effective on the road as he is at home, but this is a talented unit as well playing for their playoff lives, and thus, I think they can provide us with a spirited effort -- I?m not sure if they can backdoor the high line they were given by the linesmakers, but they should at least score into the 20?s, and as long as Green Bay does its usual thing on offense, then we should be good. As illustrated with the two extra points, however, it could be really, really close.
TB/DET O41 (Bought ? P) - $54 to win $45
Analysis: Hilariously, the Bucs are still in the NFC South hunt despite a dismal season, although those odds are highly slim with only four games remaining. Even so, this newfound life actually has the two-win Bucs playing meaningful football still at this late point in the season, which should help lead them be competitive this afternoon in Detroit. On paper, their offense is actually pretty good with Josh McCown under center, as Mike Evans has been on fire, while Vincent Jackson is certainly a talented WR himself, and now it appears forgotten RB Doug Martin is getting back in rhythm. They?re tasked with facing a tough D, but with the line as low as it is, all they really need is a couple of TDs. I have confidence the Lions? high-powered offense will continue to make its mark, just as they did significantly on Thanksgiving, which should hopefully lead to at least a 24-17 score in this old divisional rivalry.
Giants -1 @ Titans - $88 to win $80
Analysis: Yes, I?m giving the Giants another shot this week. It looks like a very opportune spot for them to pick up a win, and despite last week?s immensely disappointing loss in Jacksonville last week, they still played well for the majority of the contest and were overpowering the Jaguars with ease. Perhaps losing that game will help them maintain a more consistent sense of urgency, which could lead to a big day for the offense. Luckily, Odell Beckham has been playing excellent since making his season debut and has shown no signs of slowing down. Rashad Jennings is banged up but he?s still playing, which hopefully helps solidify the running game. Above all, though, is the fact that the Giants are facing rookie QB Zach Mettenberger, who hasn?t really shown much, let alone any consistency at all. Yes, it?s a meaningless game for both squads, but the Titans are in a bigger mess than the Giants are, and based on how relatively solid New York has looked the past several weeks (Ex. Almost beating Dallas two weeks ago; they probably should?ve won that game as well), as long as they give us one of those recent efforts, and remain consistent, they should win this game. The Titans are a mess and may continue to lose out winding down the stretch, not to mention while being banged up (Their top three receivers are out!). Giants, meanwhile, are probably a bit better than their record, and obviously have to be starving for a win at this point.
Buccaneers +11 (Bought ?) @ Lions - $30 to win $25
(Analysis pretty much the same as I wrote in taking the over for this game. I just think Tampa Bay can hang in there and provide a competitive effort; they?re actually not as bad as their record -- certainly not on paper, so maybe this is the game they finally shine)
Joe Flacco O21? Completions - $23 to win $20
BAL +16, PIT +16, TB +23?, DEN +3 - $39 to win $30
BAL +16, DEN +3, ATL/GB O42?, Thunder -4? (From 12/5) - $33 to win $25
DEN -2?, Cavs -2? (From 12/4) - $26 to win $20
BAL +16, CAR/NO O37?, TB +23?, SF/OAK U53? - $26 to win $20
Good luck to everyone today and remember, I'll probably add some more action throughout the day.