Ever heard of Billy Walters? Rainbow and others are probably more equipped to respond to this, but my answer would be limits. On game-day, the limits are as high as they will get. So instead of betting earlier in the week against softer lines with lower limits, the larger syndicates make a business move to wait until they can bet as much as possible before getting down. You see the same thing with WNBA. If you're a large syndicate, would you rather bet against the weaker WNBA openers the day before at $250 limits and have a higher win-rate but get less equity out of your plays or would you rather wait until noon of game-day where limits are 3-5k at Pinny and then bomb away against a slightly sharper line (equating to a lower win-rate) but get a lot more money for your work?
Tim,
Why, in a Vegas sportsbook, do football lines move so much on Sunday mornings? That can't just be syndicate money moving the odds. I assume that syndicates also make their plays at other times than between 8:30 and 10:00 AM on Sunday.
Tim i would only deal with a man of your knowledge by letting you bet 5k a game then bet 10k myself on your side . I would ride you till the wheels fell off.
I understand..........Yes sir but dont have access to BW and dont want to However I was in a office in 80s that was putting him on. I try and avoid sharps unless I try to follow them
OH yeah B Baxter was pretty sharp himself!
Ahhh, finally a good argument about gambling and not gambling forums.
I do lose a few huge chalks every year. The NO OVERTIME -800 at Olympic for the NFC Championship game this past year comes to mind. But by the end of the season, I had made way more on those huge chalk bets (the this player will NOT score in the World Cup were very profitable, especially in the earlier rounds) than I lost. I would make that NO OT bet over and over again at -800 when I think the fair line is -950. Same goes for NO 2-PT CONVERSION at -300, NO SAFETY at -800, etc. Bet these as often as you can throughout the season - sure there will be a few safeties and a few OTs where you'll lose a chunk, but by the end of the year you will have made money.
This question may look familiar to some because I posed it a while back at CW. Which bet would you rather make:
- 84% play at -400
- 55% play at -110
I know my answer, but will let you explain yours and go from there.
When did the sharp bookmaker tell you this? I believe this kind of mentality was true maybe a decade ago or even 5 year's ago, but in today's market I think the sharp money so outweighs the square money that the public has hardly any impact on the line. I mean looking at historical NFL data going back to 1983 (which is how far my DB goes), you could just blindly bet any +7 or more underdog and hit 55%. Obviously the market is way smarter today than in the 80s and these kind of market biases are much harder to come by, and the edges are much smaller if they do still exist.
One of the dumbest pieces of advise I see people repeatedly give is "bet favorites early and dogs late because the public always will bet the favorite and continuously drive the price up until game time". The sports betting market has come a long way with the advent of line services, computers, databases, etc. Even Kenny White of the LVSC admitted that he used to set the line to attract equal action, but the market has gotten so much sharper that their goal morphed into setting the most accurate line. I don't even believe in "public teams" or "fan money" moving lines. The Yankees, Notre Dame, Cowboys, etc. will all have their lines move down as much as they move towards them going forward in my estimation.
Ever heard of Billy Walters? Rainbow and others are probably more equipped to respond to this, but my answer would be limits. On game-day, the limits are as high as they will get. So instead of betting earlier in the week against softer lines with lower limits, the larger syndicates make a business move to wait until they can bet as much as possible before getting down. You see the same thing with WNBA. If you're a large syndicate, would you rather bet against the weaker WNBA openers the day before at $250 limits and have a higher win-rate but get less equity out of your plays or would you rather wait until noon of game-day where limits are 3-5k at Pinny and then bomb away against a slightly sharper line (equating to a lower win-rate) but get a lot more money for your work?
So how much do you wager on each of these bets to maximize long term potential...(horse players serious ones anyway, know this one)...'hint" you risk more on a wager that will win a higher % of the time and less on the other .. but what is the optimal amount?
Also a lot of people bet the day of the game..
I would say over 90% of squares bet on the day of the game..... always has been like that....
Example: If a NFL game opens -9 and goes to -10 on the day of the game, Do you think the Syndicate moved it a full point? another Example: If a College Football game opens -27 and its up to -31, Is that a Syndicate play? Are both of these games syndicate plays? or they just another sharp outfit? Can you spot real money early in the week?
Tim, they got alot of squares that bet alot of money and have no clue what they are doing, Real money to me means smart money... BW, is the only guy I know that can get +4 on a game when the market is at 3.5 without costing alot of money to do, he knows all the books on that screen that dry move and he knows the books that over move games whenever he bets...Do you think the $100 square bets on game day have any impact on the line when you have BW's beards bombing away?
What do you mean by real money? I don't really have any inside info like you, so I guess not. I assume that most line moves are in the proper direction (towards the fair value). If a game moves from -27 to -31, I believe that 31 is a sharper number than 27. If it wasn't, you'd have sharps pounding the big dog back down.
I would say over 90% of squares bet on the day of the game..... always has been like that....
Tim, they got alot of squares that bet alot of money and have no clue what they are doing, Real money to me means smart money... BW, is the only guy I know that can get +4 on a game when the market is at 3.5 without costing alot of money to do, he knows all the books on that screen that dry move and he knows the books that over move games whenever he bets...
exactly, its just common sense..
Real money means smart money, sure. But how could anyone not on the inside possibly distinguish? If you have to make assumptions, shouldn't one just presume that every move is a legitimate one?
I can't count in my lifetime how many games I spotted that were set-up doing the week......
Real money means smart money, sure. But how could anyone not on the inside possibly distinguish? If you have to make assumptions, shouldn't one just presume that every move is a legitimate one?
If I had to guess on real money I defintely would be in the wrong business...........
MLB chalk players have little or no chance.
John I play NOTHING but favs and you need to look at my year long baseball thread ...up over 350 units ....all posted picks...all favorites
350 units? How many units a game would it be if you used the standard 1 unit a play? Secondly, there are people who "winning" roulette players for a couple months. Doesn't mean they are making good bets.
350 units? How many units a game would it be if you used the standard 1 unit a play? Secondly, there are people who "winning" roulette players for a couple months. Doesn't mean they are making good bets.
I guess you havnt seen his thread? Its pretty funny. He regularly bets like 13,000 units on a game. Its a chase system which we all know where those lead. :LMAO:LMAO
I guess you havnt seen his thread? Its pretty funny. He regularly bets like 13,000 units on a game. Its a chase system which we all know where those lead. :LMAO:LMAO
hey asswipe show me where I regularly play 13000 units on a game ....look through the entire thread and find them asswipe average play is 200-300 bucks ....but I gues you know all,,,how much are you up on your posted plays ? like everyone says chase system dont work but the season is almost over and it is another winning year ...so when does it tank after 10 years or so ?.....where are your plays that win ?
MLB chalk players have little or no chance.
I guess you havnt seen his thread? Its pretty funny. He regularly bets like 13,000 units on a game. Its a chase system which we all know where those lead. :LMAO:LMAO
How long have I been preaching that and how many times have I been told to Fuck Off by people who say they like the play/it is a good number/they will win their bet....etc.
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE to be a long term winner in MLB or NHL laying big chalk all the time yet the world is littered with JACKASSES who lay massive wood all the time thenw onder why they are losing money despite the fact they hit 60%+ for the season while someone who plays a lot of dogs and hits 45% does many a lot of money
hey asswipe....why do you feel the need to bash when all I mentioned was my success betting favorites ? and then you ....not knowing what the fuck at all you are talking about....your need to say I play lots of play 13000 units each is total bullshit....where do you see that in that thread....show me dates and plays mr know it all asswipe ...you are what is wrong with posting forums...I just wanted to show a profitable system and since it is not yours you dont like it...there is more ways than your way in this life ...85 per cent of ALL my plays are 100 bucks each so why dont you get your fucking facts straight before you start spouting out untrue bullshit...most of all my plays are under -160 ....where are your winning plays ?
I am having a hard time finding your winning posted plays that makes you a know it all ?
FYI Everyone here knows you dont really bet. Have fun playing your "posted plays" with Monopoly money.
Sorry didnt mean to jump on you without asking 1st I just took a quick glance and saw that it was a chase systems which never work. Correct me if Im wrong But you normally bet 100$ game but on this occasion you bet 13K?
C07-24-10 07:29 AM #300
Joboarder
EOG Addicted
Join Date
Sep 17, 2009
Posts
528
Re: Favorite/Dog System
7/24 Plays
Fav/Dog
Col 150/100 HD g1
Tampa 12987/7215 HD g6
2/3
Oak 270/235 g2
Reply Reply With Quote
07-24-10 10:50 AM #301
Chessman
LA Lakers 2009-10 NBA Champions
Join Date
Oct 10, 2009
Location
NYC
Posts
4,375
Re: Favorite/Dog System
You're risking $13,000 on the Rays?