This reply might in fact deserve its own topic/posting. But the replies in this one show exactly how/why people can use picks posted in varying ways...
Now I take it with a grain of salt that any one individual can move aline these days, regardless of their reputation, but I guess it is possible that the "aura" or "climate" they create might generate enough play to move a line somewhat.
For example I do believe that in ODU game the lines did in fact move quite a bit in certain directions due to some action made byu people that were coattailing picks made. But that is an obscure mid major hoops team that played a lot of games on "off" nights. But in terms of the NFL and the sheer volume of money it is difficult to think that a major impact can be made.
But for sake of argument, lets say a line does move, or interest is generated. Why can't players just wait on the move and go the opposite way? Or better yet, ytake a team one way, then buy back another? This is obviously better in bases where the money gerated is more tangeable than a point spread in football, but the same rules apply.
I have never been an advocate of people giving out plays. Granted I did it myself, but only briefly, and only when I was caught up in the whole rage of posting and trying to "prove" something. But I do see where having "respected" players/touts giving out sides can actually benefit others no matter what their opinion is.
We all see it, when a name brand tout gives out a side, the initial reaction is "good we can fade him", which may or may not be a bad plan. But it isn't always that simple either. Surley there may be some benefit gained, but unles that tout/player is constantly picking games that are coin flips to the spread it won't be that great an advantage over time.
Just as when the tout/player most likely isn't going to be picking at a high enough percentage to make it worth the followers time, assuming that the follower is following some sort of money management philosophy and not simply wagering a higher amount on someone else's plays just because they have a reputation.
But most definately when touts that do have the clientele to move a number are picking baseball games I am paying attention simply because the probability of getting a number that can make you a winner both ways is much more likely, than hitting a midle ro a side on a poitnspread play.
One other misnomer in the OP (no offense) but we really are not trying to "crush the man", we are actually trying to crush each other. Crushing the man is actually what makes books go broke, or be sold to different people and allowed to run under the same monicker. We want the man to run his business correctly so that he will still be in business to take our bets and offer us the reduced holds, and for some the bonuses and perks they give away. That is all.
This whole us against them mentality is the major reason why when one book does screw up the whole industry is lumped into it. Books should be nothing more than portals for players to make speculative plays on a certain event, knowing that no matter what happens the balance is there, and that they will get paid. But if a book wants to offer some goofy plays with vastly reduced limits to offer some "fun" plays once in awhile that is probably OK, as long as theey have enough money available to absorb any losses they may incur. But if they are broke and want to let people bet 5K on who is going to win a rality show that has been in the can for months, or who is going to win a wrestlig match, those are books you might want to avoid. But I digress.
Bottomline, picks posted by people, whether they are their own, or someone elses, have to be taken with some discretion, but if a profitable angle can be found in them, whether it be following, fading, waiting or aspect of all three approaches, then they are worth it.
