First positive thing in a while for BEARSNagy tests positive for covid
I don't think it was misleading at all - They were not going to be competitive with Hicks out. They were overmatched at Cleveland, and this game was more of the same. One team is playing to win while the other is looking for positive moments. Why else are they kicking short FG's down 21? The Bears also tried to sell how they hung with TB in the 2H.The TB score was very misleading. Fields handed them 3 touchdowns in Bear territory with
fumbles and INT. Nonetheless, coverage was good considering they never touched Brady.
I don't think it was misleading at all - They were not going to be competitive with Hicks out. They were overmatched at Cleveland, and this game was more of the same. One team is playing to win while the other is looking for positive moments. Why else are they kicking short FG's down 21? The Bears also tried to sell how they hung with TB in the 2H.
For sure. I think it was 3-0. TB was content running clock (good), while the Bears were content running 2-yard routes (very bad). They are not nearly this bad with Dalton, but he has a very low ceiling. Then again the Jets actually traded a draft pick for Joe Flacco.Wow, that's insane. Ask any sharp what's the smart bet to make when a team is up by more than 3 scores at halftime. It starts with a "u" and ends with an "r".
Wow, that's insane. Ask any sharp what's the smart bet to make when a team is up by more than 3 scores at halftime. It starts with a "u" and ends with an "r".
I have a complaint with the poor performance of Matt Nagy. He is Marc Trestman 2.0.And now Bears WR Allen Robinson is complaining about Matt Nagy's poor use of QB Justin Fields in the preseason.
There is NO correlation between leader of men and ATS success - unless they can be led into the end zone.
If he’s out for the rest of the season and Fields progresses, does Nagy get ‘credit”?no timetable for the return of nagy to the sideline
Do Matt Nagy's inspirational text messages to Justin Fields on the morning of the game qualify as coaching?
Comp, how has that done in the last 10 years? I'm guessing pretty close to 50-50 now that the markets have adjsuted so hard to it.When a team is ahead at halftime by 15 or more points, bet the UNDER in the second half.
This angle goes back to the late 90's, popularized by Nolan Dalla in 2000, more famous for his poker commentary.
Nolan Dalla: NFL Halftime Betting Angles
After I posted these and they received publicity, sportsbooks/oddsmakers caught on to these angles and began adjusting their numbers.www.nolandalla.com
Comp, how has that done in the last 10 years? I'm guessing pretty close to 50-50 now that the markets have adjusted so hard to it.
Why wait until halftime to bet the angle?
If you spot a game where one side looks dead and non-competitive late in the first quarter, take a lead and bet the UNDER in live wagering.
The main reasons I see to bet at halftime instead of live wagering are:
1) Coaches have more time at the half to modify game plans and personnel to adjust to being ahead/behind by a lot. Cappers have more time to evaluate their bet.
2) Books tend to not model the new situation at the half and instead make a knee-jerk 2nd Half total of half the original total plus or minus a point or so.
Why wait until halftime to bet the angle?
If you spot a game where one side looks dead and non-competitive late in the first quarter, take a lead and bet the UNDER in live wagering.
That is if you don't fear getting freerolled. I only live bet between quarters and/or halftime. I don't trust the books. Too often I've hit the send only to see it buffer and buffer, and then the bet not accepted.
Or the line changes…
2 doesn't happen anymore in these blowout games, precisely why the trend hasn't been a winner since you see crazy low numbers that are way below half the original total. I wouldn't blindly bet it either, but I will dabble on the under if its a home favorite in the lead.
I leave that analysis to you. I recall multiple times where the 2nd half line was 2-2.5 points lower than half of the game total and immediately just passed on it. I found a few that were closer to half the total and bet them, I believe I went 3-2 on them but I didn't flag the situation so looking through my records I might be missing a bet or two. They were home favorites which I just presumed were better bets in that spot. It's not that common because I look for18 points up at half, not 15 so the sample size and data could be a little different.I would guess you have no hard numbers to back this assertion. Please post if you do since there can be anomalies due to the book used, but they probably won't change the data very much. Obviously, a few HT totals will have rather large deviations due to changing weather, key injuries or other factors.
Using consensus lines that are pretty accurate, I get the following results: Most of the "blowout" 2nd half lines are less than or equal to one point less than the closing total for the game divided by 2. The average deviation this year so far has been a little more than normal at -1.53 pts (including one HT line of -4.25 less than Total CL/2). Last year's (2020-21) deviation was -1.25 pts (again including one outlier of -6 pts) with the majority, 27, of the 52 "blowouts" <= one pt. less than Total CL/2.
Ravens down to 4.....ravens news?