It really cracks me up

[munson15]

Re: It really cracks me up

Honestly, I wish I had started taking this job seriously when I was Tim's age, his understanding of this game is impressive, and he's not afraid to admit when he doesn't know.

 

[rainbow]

Re: It really cracks me up

Ever heard of Billy Walters? Rainbow and others are probably more equipped to respond to this, but my answer would be limits. On game-day, the limits are as high as they will get. So instead of betting earlier in the week against softer lines with lower limits, the larger syndicates make a business move to wait until they can bet as much as possible before getting down. You see the same thing with WNBA. If you're a large syndicate, would you rather bet against the weaker WNBA openers the day before at $250 limits and have a higher win-rate but get less equity out of your plays or would you rather wait until noon of game-day where limits are 3-5k at Pinny and then bomb away against a slightly sharper line (equating to a lower win-rate) but get a lot more money for your work?

BW has always waited till the day of the game to bet the majority of his real stuff, not only for the higher limits, thats when alot of the games are inflated, another words you might be on Ohio St -8.5 and he comes along on game day and bets Michigan +10 the market goes down to 9 everywhere, now you beat the opening line with your -8.5 play and BW takes the +10, BW wins those kind of games for fun....

 

[rainbow]

Re: It really cracks me up

Tim,

Why, in a Vegas sportsbook, do football lines move so much on Sunday mornings? That can't just be syndicate money moving the odds. I assume that syndicates also make their plays at other times than between 8:30 and 10:00 AM on Sunday.

It mostly is...

 

[rainbow]

Re: It really cracks me up

The Chinaman in the NBA bets the majoity his games in the morning, you not going to see no Syndicate plays at night time against this Chinaman, because he is the main guy in the NBA, and he bets on alot of favorites...

 

[rainbow]

Re: It really cracks me up

[QUOTE=IrishTim


Sure, I don't disagree. But what does this have to do with anything? BTW, were you surprised to see that the line moves towards the Yankees in only 52% of their games?

You are the one said that on a Sunday night and Monday night that the syndicate can come in at post and wipe out everything, he can do that, but he's not going to make the line get back to the original opening line, not on these kind of games.... and about the Yankees opening and closing line, you only can use The Greek or Cris openers, because they are the one's that open up first...

 

[msftkid]

Re: It really cracks me up

Tim i would only deal with a man of your knowledge by letting you bet 5k a game then bet 10k myself on your side . I would ride you till the wheels fell off.

 

[rainbow]

Re: It really cracks me up

Tim i would only deal with a man of your knowledge by letting you bet 5k a game then bet 10k myself on your side . I would ride you till the wheels fell off.

I'm not trying to bust your chops, but have you ever heard of BW, I would follow this man till the cows come home....he is the best of the best.....

 

[msftkid]

Re: It really cracks me up

Yes sir but dont have access to BW and dont want to However I was in a office in 80s that was putting him on. I try and avoid sharps unless I try to follow them

 

[rainbow]

Re: It really cracks me up

Yes sir but dont have access to BW and dont want to However I was in a office in 80s that was putting him on. I try and avoid sharps unless I try to follow them

I understand..........

 

[msftkid]

Re: It really cracks me up

OH yeah B Baxter was pretty sharp himself!

 

[rainbow]

Re: It really cracks me up

OH yeah B Baxter was pretty sharp himself!

Yep, but none like BW...

 

[trytrytry]

Re: It really cracks me up

good thread


in the first example below you can obviously bet both situations, both are long term money makers (positive ROI)...but you would not bet your entire bankroll on either as if you lose your not able to wager the next day on something that has a positive expectation wager..so the real question might be, not which is a better bet, but which and in what fashion can you make the most money with long term, building your bankroll and not risk financial ruin..?
So how much do you wager on each of these bets to maximize long term potential...(horse players serious ones anyway, know this one)...'hint" you risk more on a wager that will win a higher % of the time and less on the other .. but what is the optimal amount?

Both of these have about the same expected value of approx 5% as tim states .....

Ahhh, finally a good argument about gambling and not gambling forums.



I do lose a few huge chalks every year. The NO OVERTIME -800 at Olympic for the NFC Championship game this past year comes to mind. But by the end of the season, I had made way more on those huge chalk bets (the this player will NOT score in the World Cup were very profitable, especially in the earlier rounds) than I lost. I would make that NO OT bet over and over again at -800 when I think the fair line is -950. Same goes for NO 2-PT CONVERSION at -300, NO SAFETY at -800, etc. Bet these as often as you can throughout the season - sure there will be a few safeties and a few OTs where you'll lose a chunk, but by the end of the year you will have made money.

This question may look familiar to some because I posed it a while back at CW. Which bet would you rather make:

• 84% play at -400
• 55% play at -110

I know my answer, but will let you explain yours and go from there.



When did the sharp bookmaker tell you this? I believe this kind of mentality was true maybe a decade ago or even 5 year's ago, but in today's market I think the sharp money so outweighs the square money that the public has hardly any impact on the line. I mean looking at historical NFL data going back to 1983 (which is how far my DB goes), you could just blindly bet any +7 or more underdog and hit 55%. Obviously the market is way smarter today than in the 80s and these kind of market biases are much harder to come by, and the edges are much smaller if they do still exist.

One of the dumbest pieces of advise I see people repeatedly give is "bet favorites early and dogs late because the public always will bet the favorite and continuously drive the price up until game time". The sports betting market has come a long way with the advent of line services, computers, databases, etc. Even Kenny White of the LVSC admitted that he used to set the line to attract equal action, but the market has gotten so much sharper that their goal morphed into setting the most accurate line. I don't even believe in "public teams" or "fan money" moving lines. The Yankees, Notre Dame, Cowboys, etc. will all have their lines move down as much as they move towards them going forward in my estimation.

 

[msftkid]

Re: It really cracks me up

Agree he has been time tested

 

[Apple]

Re: It really cracks me up

Ever heard of Billy Walters? Rainbow and others are probably more equipped to respond to this, but my answer would be limits. On game-day, the limits are as high as they will get. So instead of betting earlier in the week against softer lines with lower limits, the larger syndicates make a business move to wait until they can bet as much as possible before getting down. You see the same thing with WNBA. If you're a large syndicate, would you rather bet against the weaker WNBA openers the day before at $250 limits and have a higher win-rate but get less equity out of your plays or would you rather wait until noon of game-day where limits are 3-5k at Pinny and then bomb away against a slightly sharper line (equating to a lower win-rate) but get a lot more money for your work?

Also a lot of people bet the day of the game..

 

[IrishTim]

Re: It really cracks me up

So how much do you wager on each of these bets to maximize long term potential...(horse players serious ones anyway, know this one)...'hint" you risk more on a wager that will win a higher % of the time and less on the other .. but what is the optimal amount?

We have a winner. Now what is the most well known mechanism for staking your wagers? Kelly Criterion. Assuming your goal is bankroll growth, the 84% bet will grow your BR at a faster rate than the 55% wager even with the same expected value.

Put another way, say you had a 20% edge on a +1,000,000 bet. You theoretically have a positive expected value but your expected bankroll growth is almost 0 because of how infrequently your bet will cash.

Also a lot of people bet the day of the game..

I still don't believe the square money that is bet on the day of the game have much, if any, impact on the line.

 

[rainbow]

Re: It really cracks me up

I would say over 90% of squares bet on the day of the game..... always has been like that....

 

[rainbow]

Re: It really cracks me up

Example: If a NFL game opens -9 and goes to -10 on the day of the game, Do you think the Syndicate moved it a full point? another Example: If a College Football game opens -27 and its up to -31, Is that a Syndicate play? Are both of these games syndicate plays? or they just another sharp outfit? Can you spot real money early in the week?

 

[IrishTim]

Re: It really cracks me up

I would say over 90% of squares bet on the day of the game..... always has been like that....

Do you think the $100 square bets on game day have any impact on the line when you have BW's beards bombing away?

Example: If a NFL game opens -9 and goes to -10 on the day of the game, Do you think the Syndicate moved it a full point? another Example: If a College Football game opens -27 and its up to -31, Is that a Syndicate play? Are both of these games syndicate plays? or they just another sharp outfit? Can you spot real money early in the week?

What do you mean by real money? I don't really have any inside info like you, so I guess not. I assume that most line moves are in the proper direction (towards the fair value). If a game moves from -27 to -31, I believe that 31 is a sharper number than 27. If it wasn't, you'd have sharps pounding the big dog back down.

 

[rainbow]

Re: It really cracks me up

Do you think the $100 square bets on game day have any impact on the line when you have BW's beards bombing away?



What do you mean by real money? I don't really have any inside info like you, so I guess not. I assume that most line moves are in the proper direction (towards the fair value). If a game moves from -27 to -31, I believe that 31 is a sharper number than 27. If it wasn't, you'd have sharps pounding the big dog back down.

Tim, they got alot of squares that bet alot of money and have no clue what they are doing, Real money to me means smart money... BW, is the only guy I know that can get +4 on a game when the market is at 3.5 without costing alot of money to do, he knows all the books on that screen that dry move and he knows the books that over move games whenever he bets...

 

[Apple]

Re: It really cracks me up

I would say over 90% of squares bet on the day of the game..... always has been like that....

exactly, its just common sense..

 

[IrishTim]

Re: It really cracks me up

Tim, they got alot of squares that bet alot of money and have no clue what they are doing, Real money to me means smart money... BW, is the only guy I know that can get +4 on a game when the market is at 3.5 without costing alot of money to do, he knows all the books on that screen that dry move and he knows the books that over move games whenever he bets...

Real money means smart money, sure. But how could anyone not on the inside possibly distinguish? If you have to make assumptions, shouldn't one just presume that every move is a legitimate one?

exactly, its just common sense..

100% of squares could bet on the day of the game, I still think it's irrelevant when you have BW betting 2 million on the AFC championship game.

 

[rainbow]

Re: It really cracks me up

Real money means smart money, sure. But how could anyone not on the inside possibly distinguish? If you have to make assumptions, shouldn't one just presume that every move is a legitimate one?

I can't count in my lifetime how many games I spotted that were set-up doing the week......

 

[rainbow]

Re: It really cracks me up

Real money means smart money, sure. But how could anyone not on the inside possibly distinguish? If you have to make assumptions, shouldn't one just presume that every move is a legitimate one?

If I had to guess on real money I defintely would be in the wrong business...........

 

[Joboarder]

Re: It really cracks me up

MLB chalk players have little or no chance.

John I play NOTHING but favs and you need to look at my year long baseball thread ...up over 350 units ....all posted picks...all favorites

 

[IrishTim]

Re: It really cracks me up

John I play NOTHING but favs and you need to look at my year long baseball thread ...up over 350 units ....all posted picks...all favorites

350 units? How many units a game would it be if you used the standard 1 unit a play? Secondly, there are people who "winning" roulette players for a couple months. Doesn't mean they are making good bets.

 

[NowshesmyRuca]

Re: It really cracks me up

350 units? How many units a game would it be if you used the standard 1 unit a play? Secondly, there are people who "winning" roulette players for a couple months. Doesn't mean they are making good bets.

I guess you havnt seen his thread? Its pretty funny. He regularly bets like 13,000 units on a game. Its a chase system which we all know where those lead. :LMAO:LMAO

 

[PalmTree]

Re: It really cracks me up

My record for 2010 is 252 wins 236 losses and plus 67.8 units. Its not all posted but can easily be confirmed by people who see all my plays every day. I'm also up 320 units from 2006 through 2009 in MLB. I play 1-1.5 units per plat. Max play is 3 units, and there are less than 20 of them in 5 years. In all that time I've never laid more than -160 on a play. The losses are just too hard to overcome.

 

[IrishTim]

Re: It really cracks me up

Different styles, I guess. I have just under a 3.5% ROI thus far in 2010 and lay higher than -160 on probably half a dozen bets a day, primarily live betting and props. Volume overcomes the occasional big hits you take.

 

[PalmTree]

Re: It really cracks me up

Absolutely. Each person has to use his bankroll as he sees fit. Nothing wrong with that. I have a way that works for me, and I'm comfortable with. That's all I'm saying.

 

[Joboarder]

Re: It really cracks me up

350 units? How many units a game would it be if you used the standard 1 unit a play? Secondly, there are people who "winning" roulette players for a couple months. Doesn't mean they are making good bets.

it is one unit a game .....it has worked for 8 years ...not 2 months

 

[Joboarder]

Re: It really cracks me up

I guess you havnt seen his thread? Its pretty funny. He regularly bets like 13,000 units on a game. Its a chase system which we all know where those lead. :LMAO:LMAO

hey asswipe show me where I regularly play 13000 units on a game ....look through the entire thread and find them asswipe average play is 200-300 bucks ....but I gues you know all,,,how much are you up on your posted plays ? like everyone says chase system dont work but the season is almost over and it is another winning year ...so when does it tank after 10 years or so ?.....where are your plays that win ?

 

[Joboarder]

Re: It really cracks me up

I guess you havnt seen his thread? Its pretty funny. He regularly bets like 13,000 units on a game. Its a chase system which we all know where those lead. :LMAO:LMAO

I am having a hard time finding your winning posted plays that makes you a know it all ?

 

[Joboarder]

Re: It really cracks me up

hey asswipe show me where I regularly play 13000 units on a game ....look through the entire thread and find them asswipe average play is 200-300 bucks ....but I gues you know all,,,how much are you up on your posted plays ? like everyone says chase system dont work but the season is almost over and it is another winning year ...so when does it tank after 10 years or so ?.....where are your plays that win ?

over 800 total plays this year posted ...so regularly playing 13000 units a game would be at least 200-300 plays that big...right ?...show me where I have many plays over 1000 know it all

 

[winkyduck]

Re: It really cracks me up

MLB chalk players have little or no chance.

How long have I been preaching that and how many times have I been told to Fuck Off by people who say they like the play/it is a good number/they will win their bet....etc.

IT IS IMPOSSIBLE to be a long term winner in MLB or NHL laying big chalk all the time yet the world is littered with JACKASSES who lay massive wood all the time thenw onder why they are losing money despite the fact they hit 60%+ for the season while someone who plays a lot of dogs and hits 45% does many a lot of money

 

[Joboarder]

Re: It really cracks me up

I guess you havnt seen his thread? Its pretty funny. He regularly bets like 13,000 units on a game. Its a chase system which we all know where those lead. :LMAO:LMAO

hey asswipe....why do you feel the need to bash when all I mentioned was my success betting favorites ? and then you ....not knowing what the fuck at all you are talking about....your need to say I play lots of play 13000 units each is total bullshit....where do you see that in that thread....show me dates and plays mr know it all asswipe ...you are what is wrong with posting forums...I just wanted to show a profitable system and since it is not yours you dont like it...there is more ways than your way in this life ...85 per cent of ALL my plays are 100 bucks each so why dont you get your fucking facts straight before you start spouting out untrue bullshit...most of all my plays are under -160 ....where are your winning plays ?

 

[rainbow]

Re: It really cracks me up

How long have I been preaching that and how many times have I been told to Fuck Off by people who say they like the play/it is a good number/they will win their bet....etc.

IT IS IMPOSSIBLE to be a long term winner in MLB or NHL laying big chalk all the time yet the world is littered with JACKASSES who lay massive wood all the time thenw onder why they are losing money despite the fact they hit 60%+ for the season while someone who plays a lot of dogs and hits 45% does many a lot of money

100% Agreed, don't be surprized if some claim they win.......

 

[NowshesmyRuca]

Re: It really cracks me up

hey asswipe....why do you feel the need to bash when all I mentioned was my success betting favorites ? and then you ....not knowing what the fuck at all you are talking about....your need to say I play lots of play 13000 units each is total bullshit....where do you see that in that thread....show me dates and plays mr know it all asswipe ...you are what is wrong with posting forums...I just wanted to show a profitable system and since it is not yours you dont like it...there is more ways than your way in this life ...85 per cent of ALL my plays are 100 bucks each so why dont you get your fucking facts straight before you start spouting out untrue bullshit...most of all my plays are under -160 ....where are your winning plays ?

Sorry didnt mean to jump on you without asking 1st I just took a quick glance and saw that it was a chase systems which never work. Correct me if Im wrong But you normally bet 100$ game but on this occasion you bet 13K?


C07-24-10 07:29 AM #300
Joboarder
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Re: Favorite/Dog System
7/24 Plays

Fav/Dog

Col 150/100 HD g1
Tampa 12987/7215 HD g6

2/3

Oak 270/235 g2
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07-24-10 10:50 AM #301
Chessman
LA Lakers 2009-10 NBA Champions
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Re: Favorite/Dog System
You're risking $13,000 on the Rays?

 

[NowshesmyRuca]

Re: It really cracks me up

I am having a hard time finding your winning posted plays that makes you a know it all ?

FYI Everyone here knows you dont really bet. Have fun playing your "posted plays" with Monopoly money.

 

[Joboarder]

Re: It really cracks me up

FYI Everyone here knows you dont really bet. Have fun playing your "posted plays" with Monopoly money.

FYI everyone here knows you are an asswipe that talks out of his ass.....I really do accept your APOLIGY for not looking before spewing out your bullshit about knowing what you are talking about....WHERE are your plays asswipe ? where are your winners asswipe....you are a perfect example of a loser that has lost his entire life in all he does and the only graditude in life you get is thinking other people are as miserable as you and that other people dont actually accomplish things in life ....so you feel the need to bash people for accomplishments because you have none or never have had any accomplishments in life ....that is why you are by yourself in your moms basement working at Mcdonalds jacking off at night ....get me some fries bitch and shut the fuck up....

 

[Joboarder]

Re: It really cracks me up

Sorry didnt mean to jump on you without asking 1st I just took a quick glance and saw that it was a chase systems which never work. Correct me if Im wrong But you normally bet 100$ game but on this occasion you bet 13K?


C07-24-10 07:29 AM #300
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Re: Favorite/Dog System
7/24 Plays

Fav/Dog

Col 150/100 HD g1
Tampa 12987/7215 HD g6

2/3

Oak 270/235 g2
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07-24-10 10:50 AM #301
Chessman
LA Lakers 2009-10 NBA Champions
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Re: Favorite/Dog System
You're risking $13,000 on the Rays?

yes I did and it won so where is the problem ......where are your plays posted ??????????????

why do people that dont even have the BALLS to post one play let alone all year feel that they have ANY credibility at all......make that a LARGE fry instead bitch.....and tuck your shirt in you dumbass ....you will never make shift manager that way