Re: Yu Darvish
The Joe Sheehan Newsletter
Vol. 9, No. 73
September 9, 2017
The Los Angeles Dodgers have the best record in baseball during the 2017 season.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have the worst record in baseball during September.
One of those things is a lot more important than the other.
The Dodgers lost 5-4 to the Rockies last night, with Yu Darvish falling apart in the fifth inning and the offense hanging eight straight zeroes after its four-run first. It’s the Dodgers’ eighth consecutive loss and and 13th in their last 14 games. Since I wrote a paean to the team on August 17th, comparing it to the greatest teams in baseball history, the Dodgers are 7-15.
They’ve earned it. Over their last 14 games, the Dodgers have been outscored 79-32. They’ve scored two runs or fewer eight times in that stretch, while allowing at least six runs eight times. Their only win came over the helpless Padres in a game started by one of the greatest pitchers in baseball history, and even that was a 1-0 squeaker. The Dodgers haven’t both allowed a run and won the game since August 25, which, owing to world events, feels like a year ago.
The catch is in those first two lines. The Dodgers have lost 13 of 14 in part because they can afford to lose 13 of 14. As has been noted many times here, teams have minimal incentive to chase regular-season laurels in an era when postseason success is all that matters to fans and the media. Once the Dodgers locked up the NL West and home-field advantage in the playoffs (hold that thought), their primary goal became setting up their roster for the Division Series, and making sure that everyone was healthy and ready to go on October 5.
(Give me that thought back. The Dodgers’ lead in the overall standings is down to five games over the Nationals, who have won nine of their last 12. The Dodgers have actually put the #1 seed in play, which certainly wasn’t part of anyone’s plan.)
The Dodgers have been hit by injuries and have had the luxury of allowing some of their best players time off. Corey Seager had been playing through right elbow pain for much of August, and while his value had held, he roped just four extra-base hits during the month. The Dodgers relegated him to a pinch-hit role late last month, and last night was his first start since August 27. Enrique Hernandez and Chris Taylor got the bulk of the playing time, and with nods to Taylor’s big year, the drop-off there is significant.
On August 19 in Detroit, Cody Bellinger rolled his ankle chasing a fly ball, and missed the Dodgers’ next nine games, the last few overlapping with the start of Seager’s absence. Adrian Gonzalez, just off the disabled list, picked up most of the playing time and hit .176/.222/.324. He’s hit .278, but with a a .278 OBP, during the 14 games. Gonzalez has made just three starts since Bellinger returned, and received an epidural in his ailing back earlier this week. Given how poorly he has hit this year, and the Dodgers’ crowded corner situation, you have to question whether Gonzalez deserves a spot on the postseason roster.
It hasn’t just been injuries. We’ve started to see regression from a number of players whose performance was both surprising and critical to the Dodgers’ great 120-game start. Taylor, who was a .234/.289/.309 career hitter coming into 2017 before turning into Alex Rodriguez for three months, had crashed to .260/.275/.420 during the last 14 games, with one walk against 15 strikeouts. Taylor has played more this year than has has in a while, so fatigue may be an issue. Hernandez, the roster’s other Swiss Army knife, is hitting .208/.240/.250 over the team’s last 14 games. Bellinger is in no danger of losing his Rookie of the Year honors, but he’s at .220/.238/.463 since coming back from his time off, and he hasn’t walked in 42 plate appearances. Yasmani Grandal is once again fading late, with a .154/.190/.231 stretch. Logan Forsythe had picked up more of the second-base work than Chae Utley has during the streak, while hitting .097/.243/.097. Finally, the Curtis Granderson trade has cut a hole in the lineup: Granderson is .070/.200/.140 -- that’s 3-for-43, kids -- during the 14 games.
The Dodgers have been playing without their best player. Their bench players have done poorly in his absence. Their prized rookie is going through a late-season slump. A trade made to bolster the lineup has instead crippled it. It’s not any one thing, any group dynamic, any disease. It’s worth mentioning that aside from four games in San Diego, the Dodgers haven’t faced a bad team during the streak: the Brewers, Diamondbacks, and Rockies are all over .500, and could all conceivably make the playoffs.
The pitching doesn’t get off without blame, and the patterns there are similar. Yu Darvish has been the Curtis Granderson of the rotation: three starts, 12 1/3 innings, 13 runs allowed, all of this after the team had Darvish skip a start due to back tightness. Clayton Kershaw has made just two starts during the streak; one was six shutout innings against the Padres, the other was a frustrating 3 2/3-inning outing against the Rockies Thursday night; the Rockies went 6-for-9 on contact and tacked on a reached-on-error as well.
Eyeball the Dodgers’ pitching stats, and this key number pops up: they’ve used eight starting pitchers in their last 14 games, and only Darvish has started more than twice. The Dodgers are managing their pitchers with an eye towards October, not September. A look at the bullpen leads to a similar conclusion. Game state has dictated some of this, but Kenley Jansen has thrown three innings over the last 14 games, Pedro Baez 3 2/3, Josh Fields three. Josh Ravin and Tony Watson and Tony Cingrani have been getting the bulk of the relief innings.
The Dodgers’ 2017 season serves to put the lie to the “when it counts” cliché. Every single game on the schedule counts exactly the same, and if you win enough of them in April and May and June, then you can render your September irrelevant. The Dodgers carrying the best record in baseball and on their way to their fifth straight NL West title. The order of the losses is just noise.
If you’re concerned about the Dodgers’ late-season fade having some meaning for their October chances, don’t be. Jay Jaffe:
“As the postseason unfolds over the next few weeks, you're going to hear a lot about momentum and its importance to a ballclub, and while it's undoubtedly a good idea to bear Earl Weaver's famous maxim in mind, the take-home message is that the conventional wisdom that a team's recent performances foreshadows their playoff fate is generally wrong.”
The Dodgers have some issues to address, starting with Darvish and extending to an offense that has succeeded in part due to some unexpected performances. Dave Roberts has a lot of choices to make about playing time. Veterans Granderson and Gonzalez have been terrible. Bellinger has struggled around the ankle injury. Taylor may be returning to Earth. Alex Wood, Rich Hill, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Kenta Maeda are all in the mix for playoff starts, and all come with a very wide range of potential outcomes on a given day. Be concerned about any and all of these issues, and others, but the results of Dodgers games late in the 2017 season should be the least of anyone’s concerns.
The Dodgers aren’t 0-8 or 1-13 or even 7-15. They’re 92-49.