WHAT % OF PEOPLE ACTUALLY WIN AT SPORTS BETTING?
- Thread starter THE SHRINK
- Start date
Great example Want...wantitall4moi said:
-120 and +140 sides on the same game give you a push or .20 cent scalped winner. No risk wagering. This shit can put your kids through college, lol. Live in-game wagering is made for scalpers.
Mr. Jones
EOG Member
If most people stood at home plate and tried to hit a 93 mph hour fastball they would swear it can't be done. And they would be correct if they spoke only of the masses of Joe Sixpacks.
Yet a very small percentage of those who attempt to do so can do it to some degree. An even lesser percentage can do so quite well. It ain't easy but it can be done.
The percentages may be about the same as in this analogy.
Yet a very small percentage of those who attempt to do so can do it to some degree. An even lesser percentage can do so quite well. It ain't easy but it can be done.
The percentages may be about the same as in this analogy.
waldogeraldofaldo
EOG Member
I never understood how scalpers came to be so revered on these forums. Unless you are making a simultaneous scalp, there is risk involved.
I guess everyone loves the idea of guaranteed money. It seems most of the forum guys would take a guaranteed $100 over a .5 chance at $300 these days.
Same thing with the middlers. You read these forums, and see guys with a
-3 up 27-3 at halftime, and they're 'hedging' with a 2nd half bet. To be a truly successful scalper or middler, you have to know what the numbers that you're playing with are worth. If you don't, you are throwing away money- regardless of whether you're a long-term winner or not.
I guess everyone loves the idea of guaranteed money. It seems most of the forum guys would take a guaranteed $100 over a .5 chance at $300 these days.
Same thing with the middlers. You read these forums, and see guys with a
-3 up 27-3 at halftime, and they're 'hedging' with a 2nd half bet. To be a truly successful scalper or middler, you have to know what the numbers that you're playing with are worth. If you don't, you are throwing away money- regardless of whether you're a long-term winner or not.
I am sure there are guys that win year in and year out. I know guys that win. I just doubt they're winning are coming from their opinionated plays, the omnes that I know that profit aren't doing it that way. I win, I also make opinionated plays. They also show a small profit SOMETIMES. But surely not to the degree that scalping and position taking does. Surely not enough to make a living from.
I won't think twice about taking a 10-15K lead on a baseball game. But I sure as hell won't ever bet that much one way. Not even on a UCLA game the guy who gives me the "info" could give me his kids as collateral.
Maybe I am not sharp ( I don't think I am), maybe I am not a big time player(I don't think I am). But I think I know more than most, and I have averaged about $3 million per year in action the past 12 or so years, so some might define me with those terms. Wagering $35 million might be seen as somewhat large I would imagine. But if you listen to some people that is what guys seem to be making in profits. So who really knows?
My bankroll isn't anywhere near big enough to put those wager amounts in action AT RISK. BUT my bankroll is surely larger than 75% of the guys that gamble. Probably more than 90%. But that is just it. It is all relative.
If I HAD 3 million in cash as a bankroll, thenI might bet larger opinionated plays, but more than likely I would lose. Also if I had 3 million in cash to gamble with I would have to be pretty frigging rich. SO what is my life style like? Obviously with that much cash on hand it would probably be pretty lavish. So would winning 100K be enough? Probably not.
The guys that bet a lot per game are guys that have the disposable income. That is another thing that gets me. "Sharp" guys bet A LOT. No they don't. They bet enough to make enough money to fill their requirements.
Calling some millionaire that owns a shitload of property and gets mony hand over fist for doing nothing a "sharp" because he can bet enough money to move a line is preposterous. Even if he has enough knowledge to actually have a clue.
Sharp guys by definition know what it takes to win and to show a profit, and sift through all the lies and deceit that fill this game. Sharp guys don't have to hit 60% to profit, they don't even have to hit 50% to show a profit. And no, Money management is NOT a factor, anyone can read a book and know how to do that.
I won't think twice about taking a 10-15K lead on a baseball game. But I sure as hell won't ever bet that much one way. Not even on a UCLA game the guy who gives me the "info" could give me his kids as collateral.
Maybe I am not sharp ( I don't think I am), maybe I am not a big time player(I don't think I am). But I think I know more than most, and I have averaged about $3 million per year in action the past 12 or so years, so some might define me with those terms. Wagering $35 million might be seen as somewhat large I would imagine. But if you listen to some people that is what guys seem to be making in profits. So who really knows?
My bankroll isn't anywhere near big enough to put those wager amounts in action AT RISK. BUT my bankroll is surely larger than 75% of the guys that gamble. Probably more than 90%. But that is just it. It is all relative.
If I HAD 3 million in cash as a bankroll, thenI might bet larger opinionated plays, but more than likely I would lose. Also if I had 3 million in cash to gamble with I would have to be pretty frigging rich. SO what is my life style like? Obviously with that much cash on hand it would probably be pretty lavish. So would winning 100K be enough? Probably not.
The guys that bet a lot per game are guys that have the disposable income. That is another thing that gets me. "Sharp" guys bet A LOT. No they don't. They bet enough to make enough money to fill their requirements.
Calling some millionaire that owns a shitload of property and gets mony hand over fist for doing nothing a "sharp" because he can bet enough money to move a line is preposterous. Even if he has enough knowledge to actually have a clue.
Sharp guys by definition know what it takes to win and to show a profit, and sift through all the lies and deceit that fill this game. Sharp guys don't have to hit 60% to profit, they don't even have to hit 50% to show a profit. And no, Money management is NOT a factor, anyone can read a book and know how to do that.
ZZ CREAM said:
Better analogy might be to have the guys hitting opposite their normal stance (the holds/and vigs that books charge for winning) thus making it even harder for a guy with some talent to even be able to do it.
Thus making switch hitters (scalpers and guys that can go both ways) as the ones that have any chance of doing it.
rainbow
EOG Master
WANTI, now you are saying MONEY MANAGEMENT is not a FACTOR, because anybody can read a BOOK, do you have the PERCENTAGES on the people that read a BOOK about MONEY MANAGEMENT, TRUST ME on this one READING and doing it is two different things in my books, if you only could imagine what gets most people MONEY MANAGEMENT AND GREED.....
rainbow said:
That is true. I am posting from what I do and what I know. What I post might be second nature to me, and what I do regularly is probably somthing that people have never even heard of, but if it was explained to them and shown or broken down they might think it was the greatest thing since sliced bread.
But I touched on it somewhere. The thing is MOST gamblers don't even have a bank roll. What they bet is what they have in their acounts or in their pockets. So the very idea of money managmenet is foreign to them. Even the guys here to claim to utilize some money management scheme.
The thing is greed and allthat comes in simply because they cannot pick winners consistantly enough to follow any sage MM advice. Liek you said, they can read a book, but doing ti is nearly imposible, not because it is hard to understand or adhere to, but because they are losing, and that so caled "good advice" isn't doing them any good.
rainbow said:
If you still want to giveme even money on Pitt tomorrow and that line even being a factor I will still take it.
AM LOSES 42-14
West Mich WINS by 30
NYG game 36-0
So getting those early numbers meant absolutley nothing IMO.
But as I say I will take even money that tommorow's game lands on 8 or 10 if you want.
rainbow
EOG Master
I'm so glad to hear from you, just tell me how much you want me to POST up with EOG, I think I can make a few phone calls and get the money to EOG tonight, do you want to wait till the GREEK puts his lines up later and you give me a time in the morning EST, and I will bet you using the GREEK'S line or CRIS'S, you just let me know what line you want me to use, and by the way we dont have to play HIGH, I dont care if you want to do it for $300 a game, let me know what TIME.wantitall4moi said:
I am not getting into some match up pissy conetst. I am saying that getting "the best line" means ZERO. Just like I said in the post in regards to this one. Getting those numbers you quoted meant absolutely nothing.
Just like getting those "key" numbers in all those games today meant NOTHING.
I am not going to argue picking games or picking winners. I am telling you, and showing you with your own examples that getting the "BEST" lines (supposedly) will not make you a winner long term. Period, end of sentace.
Post every game that you think the line was moved by steam, or by your so called pro buddies. Post them AFTER kickoff if you are scared people will chase. Just post them before too much time has passed.
We will keep track of all the games where getting a "better" line mattered, then we will also keep track of when betting AGAINST the move mattered(versus the spread). Trust me it will be pretty damn close to a 50/50 split.
Simple question do you think getting 8 early on tomorrow nights game is any better than taking +12(available) on Balt? Or even still taking -11(still available) on Pitt? And what are the chances that it doesn't matter at all. I am saying it is less than a 50% chance to matter.
Just like getting those "key" numbers in all those games today meant NOTHING.
I am not going to argue picking games or picking winners. I am telling you, and showing you with your own examples that getting the "BEST" lines (supposedly) will not make you a winner long term. Period, end of sentace.
Post every game that you think the line was moved by steam, or by your so called pro buddies. Post them AFTER kickoff if you are scared people will chase. Just post them before too much time has passed.
We will keep track of all the games where getting a "better" line mattered, then we will also keep track of when betting AGAINST the move mattered(versus the spread). Trust me it will be pretty damn close to a 50/50 split.
Simple question do you think getting 8 early on tomorrow nights game is any better than taking +12(available) on Balt? Or even still taking -11(still available) on Pitt? And what are the chances that it doesn't matter at all. I am saying it is less than a 50% chance to matter.
rainbow
EOG Master
I'm not WORRIED about the game falling 12, 11.5 and 12 in my eyes are the same number, I think the game could fall 10 or 11, my WHOLE POINT is I would RATHER have the person that ORIGINATED the game going for me than a BOOKIE moving a line up looking for a buy back going for me, another words Pitts -8.5 VERSUS BUFF +12 the whole world closes 11.5 you beat a CONCRETE LINE BY A HALF A POINT OR IF THE WHOLE WORLD CLOSES 12 AND YOU TAKE THE 12 MEANING YOU DIDNT BEAT THE CLOSING LINE AND I BEAT IT BP 3.5 POINTS, WANTI YOU ARE JUST A LITTLE TOO YOUNG TO EVEN ARGUE ABOUT SOMETHING YOU ABSOLUTELY KNOW NOTHING ABOUT, I'M DONE ARGUING, UNLESS YOU WANT TO PUT YOUR MONEY WHERE YOUR MOUTH IS.wantitall4moi said:
rainbow said:
I am not all that young, BUT I think you are too old or senile to get what I am saying I guess.
That ORIGINATOR(if you feel more comfy with that terms) means NOTHING.
Like I said, post them up, and we can ALL track them together.
I watch those ORIGINATORS crash and burn week in and week out. That is just on the LOSING side, not even talking about games where they got LUCKY and the side they bet early covered a number. What is WORSE is when they ORIGINATE a move and the OPENER LOSES, and the CLOSER WINS. When that happens more often than the former, it show how "sharp" those ORIGINATORS are.
Post em up, and show us all how good the originators are.
I don't really care one way or the other, but when people try to make others believe there is some "secret society" that "controls" the boards with their plays I laugh my ass off, especially when they crash and burn habitually.
rainbow
EOG Master
wantitall4moi said:
I'M NOT TRYING TO MAKE NOBODY BELIEVE NOTHING, I'VE BEEN FOOLING WITH WISEGUYS FOR 33YRS, I KNOW WHAT THEY CAN DO, YOUR PROBLEM IS YOU HAVE NEVER DEALT WITH THEM, I KNOW ONE THING FOR SURE IF YOU POST UP I WILL MAKE MINCE MEAT OUT OF YOU, WE WILL SIGN A CONTRACT THROUGH THE BASKETBALL SEASON TOO, YOU KNOW ALOT OF PEOPLE SOMEBODY MIGHT STAKE YOU AGAINST ME.
How are you going to make mincemeat out of me? I don't get it.
I am simply saying that these originators you swear by are mythical, and they will win or lose with the same consistancy.
Where does me getting minced come into it?
Post up the moves after the games kick off, we can tally from there.
I am saying they will win and lose with the same consistancy. Some Iam sure will also move the "wrong" way.
There is really no "contest' Or challenge here. I am saying what I think. you are saying what you think. the only way to show which is which is to have actual plays. SO you provide the plays (after the fact) and we can tally them up.
If I was trying to "prove" I would use what I had at my disposal to prove it. Since all I can do is show steam and numbers I ahve. But you can simply say those are not the games MY ORIGINATORS moved. Which is valid, and expected.
So I am saying POST YOUR originators plays, and we can take it from there.
If they do better than I think, then I will admit I was wrong. But I am 99% sure I will be proven right. Because the results will do it foe me. And it would save a lot of arguing.
I am simply saying that these originators you swear by are mythical, and they will win or lose with the same consistancy.
Where does me getting minced come into it?
Post up the moves after the games kick off, we can tally from there.
I am saying they will win and lose with the same consistancy. Some Iam sure will also move the "wrong" way.
There is really no "contest' Or challenge here. I am saying what I think. you are saying what you think. the only way to show which is which is to have actual plays. SO you provide the plays (after the fact) and we can tally them up.
If I was trying to "prove" I would use what I had at my disposal to prove it. Since all I can do is show steam and numbers I ahve. But you can simply say those are not the games MY ORIGINATORS moved. Which is valid, and expected.
So I am saying POST YOUR originators plays, and we can take it from there.
If they do better than I think, then I will admit I was wrong. But I am 99% sure I will be proven right. Because the results will do it foe me. And it would save a lot of arguing.