smartz
2
I had the under not hookeri saw hooker was -153 an hr before fight, you sure it closed -110?
I had the under not hookeri saw hooker was -153 an hr before fight, you sure it closed -110?
If you're capping for a +1400 chance of winning. Sure.
I wonder how much Ribas had to cut final day? Might've had something to do with her going down with that first shot
Great work Smartz!Big night last night at UFC 257.
In EOG's Best Bet thread, I show SMARTZ with a record of 6-1 from seven documented UFC selections and a profit of 6.55 units.
It pays to be informed.
It's pretty standard for her. I think she just got clipped by a really good striker. The 1st round went just as I thought it would but then a shot behind the ear had her doing the chicken dance in the 2nd. Thats the fight game for ya.I wonder how much Ribas had to cut final day? Might've had something to do with her going down with that first shot
Occasionally but usually only on bigger name fighters. I find it really hard gauging SOS and how they'll stack up when your past fight history is fighting all unknowns on regional circuit. And getting footage of these fights are hard to come by.Smartz-do you wager on Bellator and LFA as well?
Danilo Marques +205 (77" reach) vs Mike Rodriguez (82.5" reach)
Current line: Marques +190
Another striker vs grappler matchup. Mike "Slow-Mo" Rodriguez is an outstanding striker. Possessing a variety of techniques and raw power to boot. At 3-4 in the UFC, Mike has got all of his wins via 1st round KO. In all fights going past the first round (Except KO loss to Da Un Jung) have resulted in losses. He should have won his last bout vs Ed Herman and a terrible referee call ruined a TKO for Mike. He eventually got submitted via Kimura shortly thereafter (I was very fortunate to win the wager).
On the feet, Marques skill level does not compare to what Mike brings to the table. Conversely, the opposite is true for the skill mismatch on the ground. Mike not only defends takedowns poorly (40%), he seems absolutely helpless once he gets there. Also when opponents force Mike into grappling exchanges his cardio depletes rapidly. The winner of this fight will be determined by who dictates where the fight takes place. If Marques can't get the fight to the mat, I expect him to get KO'd early. But if he lands takedowns, his top control should allow for an easy victory. With how poor Mike is defending takedowns and how amateur he is off his back, +205 seems to be definitely worth a wager.
Alexandre Pantoja -125 (67" Reach) vs Manel Kape (68" reach)
Current line: Pantoja -125
They have thrown Manel Kape to the wolves in his UFC debut. Kape comes in heavily hyped as an AKA product and former champion in Rizin. Kape is a very good athlete with fluid kicks and punches in his repertoire. Relies on his quick movement and often fights with his hands down inviting his opponents to throw. Thats where Kape's strengths lie, on the feet. He does struggle to defend takedowns and seems very amateur off his back. Early on he uses his athleticism to explode back to his feet, but fighters only have a few of those in their back pocket until they burn themselves out. At 27, Kape's game is ever evolving, I just think this matchup is too much too soon. He's facing a man in Pantoja who is dangerous everywhere. A BJJ ace with solid takedowns and serious KO power on the feet. Unfortunately for Pantoja, he's in a division with a guy at the top (Deiveson Figueiredo) that does everything he can but in a bigger frame and with more power. As Pantoja has climbed the ranks in the UFC he has naturally found less success. Dropping 2 of his last 3 to undefeated Askar Askarov and champ Deiveson Figueiredo. Losing both of these bouts by decision.
The two fighters share one common opponent in Yuta Sasaki. A middling ex-UFC fighter, he was stopped in the 1st round by submission when fighting Pantoja but won a lopsided unanimous decision to Kape. Interestingly enough these fights took place 1 month apart. So they essentially fought the exact same guy. As its doubtful a vet like Sasaki made major changes in a matter of weeks. Sasaki was outmatched on the feet vs Kape but continually dragged Kape to the mat at will and pressured him with sub attempts and strikes. I want to say he scored 4-5+ takedowns in a 3 round fight. Aside from Kyoji Horiguchi (who he loss to via sub), Kape has never faced consistent high level competition like he is about to in the UFC. Especially being thrust into a top 5 bout in his debut. I'd give Kape a slight edge in the standup but think Pantoja carries more power in his shots. Pantoja also just has more ways to win as well with his very high level BJJ game. If Pantoja feels threatened standing, I think he will just take it to the ground and end the fight via submission.
Timur Valiev -150 (67" Reach) vs Julio Arce (70" reach)
Current line: Valiev -165
Julio Arce is another striker out of Tiger Schulman in NYC who has produced alot of UFC talent recently. He has some very quality wins under his belt with a decision win over Dan Ige in 2018 and a KO win over Julian Erosa in 2019. Arce relies heavily on his boxing and maintains distance very well. Also presents with outstanding takedown defense (93%) through 6 UFC bouts. While I am a fan of Arce's game, I feel he falls short everywhere against Valiev. Timur has almost no deficiencies in his game. Another Dagestan product who's trained with elite MMA fighters for years now (Jackson-Wink, Mark Henry, etc). He's much more Zabit than Khabib with a very well rounded game grappling, striking, etc. i Simply put Timur is good to great everywhere. I think Arce will struggle with Valiev's superior speed, defense and overall diversity in his game. Valiev isn't invincible. He was stopped in his last UFC fight where he had Trevin Jones on deaths door outlanding him like 60-5 but got a little too aggressive and got caught on the chin in the process. Shit happens. Not very often you see a fighter get finished despite outlanding the opponent 66-26. The way in which he loss was out of character too, as he is generally a patient technician and outpoints his foes. His only loss prior to that was a split decision loss to Chris Gutierrez in 2016 who has been very impressive and is currently on a 4-fight streak in the UFC. Valiev avenged that loss with a unanimous decision win 5 months later. My expectation is Valiev easily outpoints his way to a unanimous decision.
I hope they worked out lolThanks for the writeups smartz! You've talked me into a few sides I would not have taken otherwise.
From my experience I’ve found in Bellator and LFA the fave money fighter seems to cash in with much greater frequency than UFCOccasionally but usually only on bigger name fighters. I find it really hard gauging SOS and how they'll stack up when your past fight history is fighting all unknowns on regional circuit. And getting footage of these fights are hard to come by.
+ 1.....With handicappers it’s not the side I’m interested in as much as solid analysis to back it up. Smartz analysis is top notchThanks for the writeups smartz! You've talked me into a few sides I would not have taken otherwise.
My girlfriend and I have been watching old seasons of The Ultimate Fighter as we didn't watch any while they were aired. We are currently watching season 26 which Gillian Robertson made her debut. She was so green and inexperienced when she showed up for TUF. It's great to see her have a successful career since because she's so easy to root for. Throughout the season she comes across as a sweet girl with a big heart.Gillian Robertson +153 (63" Reach) vs Miranda Maverick (65" reach)
Current line: Robertson +130
Miranda Maverick is young thick framed fighter making her second UFC fight against a much more seasoned Gillian Robertson. Maverick spent her last fight on the feet en route to a 1st round TKO and being hyped up by the like of Jon Anik. Typically though, Maverick can be quite heavy on grappling in her approach. Jojua simply couldn't match up with her power and Maverick felt comfortable standing. I personally don't see the hype, I think there is potential but the skills just aren't there yet. Also the quality of competition she has faced thus far is not great. While she does pack some power for the division, her strikes and reactions in the standup appear slow. And I don't know if it's a lack of flexibility or dexterity but she really seemed to struggled to sink in her hooks deep or cinch a body lock when taking the back of Pearl Gonzalez in her last fight in Invicta. This gave room for Pearl to scramble on the mat and reverse position early in the 1st. Against a BJJ black belt in Robertson who prefers all of her fights to be on the mat, deficiencies like these could be the difference. Robertson has submitted her foe in 5/6 victories in the UFC. Miranda is susceptible to the takedown as well which bodes well for Gill. I bet against Gillian in her last fight and while she loss by unanimous decision, she put Taila Santos (who is an absolute monster imo) in some compromising spots at times. Gillians technique looked sound but she was just fighting a different caliber of fighter in Santos. The victory was never in doubt unless Santos got sub'd but I think the lopsided defeat compounded with Mavericks first rd TKO debut has caused a bit of an overreaction by oddsmakers in this bout. I think the wrong side is favored here and see Robertson by unanimous decision. May add a submission prop closer to fight time
Yah I enjoy betting on her fights, for or against. Because she is just so consistent, you know she's always gonna be game and sticks to her strengths on the ground.My girlfriend and I have been watching old seasons of The Ultimate Fighter as we didn't watch any while they were aired. We are currently watching season 26 which Gillian Robertson made her debut. She was so green and inexperienced when she showed up for TUF. It's great to see her have a successful career since because she's so easy to root for. Throughout the season she comes across as a sweet girl with a big heart.
Keep up the great work on these write ups smartz, Really enjoy reading your insights
Love this selection as well. For all of the reasons you point out, so much value in the Edgar priceFrankie Edgar +350 (68" Reach) vs Cory Sandhagen (70" reach)
Current line: Edgar +350
I waited on this wager figuring this line would rise but was surprised when it rose 100 cents from the opener. Edgar should definitely be the dog here but oddsmakers and the market are disrespecting Edgar's skills/body of work. Edgar has dropped 3 of his last 5 but the competition has been fierce (all losses to top 5 opponents). He got KO'd for the 1st and 2nd time in his career after being caught in the 1st round by power punchers Chan Sung Jung and Brian Ortega and just got outclassed by the great Max Holloway. He easily beat Cub Swanson by unanimous decision and squeaked by Pedro Munhoz in his last bout by a questionable split decision. I personally thought Edgar won but most media outlets did not. It definitely was a very close bout. I thought Edgar looked terrific and Munhoz was a terrible matchup for Edgar. A power puncher who sits in the pocket, has relentless pressure, vicious leg kicks (Edgar relies on movement) and a bjj ace with great takedown defense. He was able to mostly nullify Edgar's strong wrestling and had the cardio to keep up with Edgar's constant movement. And holding the power advantage, he had Edgar on his heels for most of the bout. But Edgar still found his way to land solid combos all night.
This match will be Edgar's 2nd fight since dropping down to 135 (which in all honesty is probably the right weight class for him given his small stature). Ironically, Sandhagen is tied as the tallest opponent he has ever faced in the UFC. This match reminds me alot his fight with Yair Rodriguez in 2017. Edgar had mostly been written off after being outclassed by Jose Aldo for the 2nd time and was facing an undefeated flashy young striker in Yair. Frankie had opened as a -260 favorite and the line was bid down to even by fight time. Edgar outclassed Yair, dragging him to the mat, neutralizing his weapons and beating that ass. My analogy falls short in that the aging Edgar was 4 years younger at the time and Yair has never held the rank or regard Sandhagen currently does. But there are quite a few similarities. Both are elite 5'11 orthodox stance strikers, utilizing flashy strikes, plenty of movement, and questionable takedown defense. While Yair has a dangerous submission game much like Cory, Cory's ability to scramble and find his way back to the feet is superior. However, Yair holds a 60% takedown defense while Sandhagen is just 30%. For those who aren't aware, 30% takedown defense is putrid and seldom seen even with low echelon fighters. I was shocked to see this stat next to a prospect universally respected as a top 3 fighter in the weight class. Cory has been successfully taken down in every UFC bout to date. To be fair, I have not seen Sandhagen in a compromising position on the ground outside of his bouts with Iuri Alcantara and Aljamain Sterling. In 2018 he miraculously survived an incredibly deep armbar (ala Tony Ferguson) from Alcantara and in 2020 suffered an early submission loss to the uber talented Aljamain Sterling. Of his 7 bouts he really has only faced one "grappler" in Sterling (a Serra BJJ Black Belt w/ college wrestling credentials). Like Sterling, Edgar also has a black belt in bjj (under Ricardo Almeida), elite wrestling, solid top control and cardio for days.
Both fighters are very durable and lack true KO power. I see this fight going to the final bell with it being a 3 rounder. If this bout stays on the feet, it's hard to believe Sandhagens diverse striking and length don't win out over Edgar's boxing. But with Sandhagens deficiencies at stopping the takedown and Edgar's high level grappling, I think Edgar has a much better chance than +350. I am confident Edgar gets him to the mat whether or not he can control Sandhagen there will determine the victor. I will be rooting for the future hall of famer to force the MMA world to still view him as a force to be reckoned with. Edgar by decision (added 0.25u on Edgar by decision +500).
Frankie Edgar +350 (68" Reach) vs Cory Sandhagen (70" reach)
Current line: Edgar +350
I waited on this wager figuring this line would rise but was surprised when it rose 100 cents from the opener. Edgar should definitely be the dog here but oddsmakers and the market are disrespecting Edgar's skills/body of work. Edgar has dropped 3 of his last 5 but the competition has been fierce (all losses to top 5 opponents). He got KO'd for the 1st and 2nd time in his career after being caught in the 1st round by power punchers Chan Sung Jung and Brian Ortega and just got outclassed by the great Max Holloway. He easily beat Cub Swanson by unanimous decision and squeaked by Pedro Munhoz in his last bout by a questionable split decision. I personally thought Edgar won but most media outlets did not. It definitely was a very close bout. I thought Edgar looked terrific and Munhoz was a terrible matchup for Edgar. A power puncher who sits in the pocket, has relentless pressure, vicious leg kicks (Edgar relies on movement) and a bjj ace with great takedown defense. He was able to mostly nullify Edgar's strong wrestling and had the cardio to keep up with Edgar's constant movement. And holding the power advantage, he had Edgar on his heels for most of the bout. But Edgar still found his way to land solid combos all night.
This match will be Edgar's 2nd fight since dropping down to 135 (which in all honesty is probably the right weight class for him given his small stature). Ironically, Sandhagen is tied as the tallest opponent he has ever faced in the UFC. This match reminds me alot his fight with Yair Rodriguez in 2017. Edgar had mostly been written off after being outclassed by Jose Aldo for the 2nd time and was facing an undefeated flashy young striker in Yair. Frankie had opened as a -260 favorite and the line was bid down to even by fight time. Edgar outclassed Yair, dragging him to the mat, neutralizing his weapons and beating that ass. My analogy falls short in that the aging Edgar was 4 years younger at the time and Yair has never held the rank or regard Sandhagen currently does. But there are quite a few similarities. Both are elite 5'11 orthodox stance strikers, utilizing flashy strikes, plenty of movement, and questionable takedown defense. While Yair has a dangerous submission game much like Cory, Cory's ability to scramble and find his way back to the feet is superior. However, Yair holds a 60% takedown defense while Sandhagen is just 30%. For those who aren't aware, 30% takedown defense is putrid and seldom seen even with low echelon fighters. I was shocked to see this stat next to a prospect universally respected as a top 3 fighter in the weight class. Cory has been successfully taken down in every UFC bout to date. To be fair, I have not seen Sandhagen in a compromising position on the ground outside of his bouts with Iuri Alcantara and Aljamain Sterling. In 2018 he miraculously survived an incredibly deep armbar (ala Tony Ferguson) from Alcantara and in 2020 suffered an early submission loss to the uber talented Aljamain Sterling. Of his 7 bouts he really has only faced one "grappler" in Sterling (a Serra BJJ Black Belt w/ college wrestling credentials). Like Sterling, Edgar also has a black belt in bjj (under Ricardo Almeida), elite wrestling, solid top control and cardio for days.
Both fighters are very durable and lack true KO power. I see this fight going to the final bell with it being a 3 rounder. If this bout stays on the feet, it's hard to believe Sandhagens diverse striking and length don't win out over Edgar's boxing. But with Sandhagens deficiencies at stopping the takedown and Edgar's high level grappling, I think Edgar has a much better chance than +350. I am confident Edgar gets him to the mat whether or not he can control Sandhagen there will determine the victor. I will be rooting for the future hall of famer to force the MMA world to still view him as a force to be reckoned with. Edgar by decision (added 0.25u on Edgar by decision +500).