Trump Should Worry About His Approval Rating
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TheGuesser
EOG Dedicated
6 months 28 days since trump was rushed to the hospital without explanation.
Which is in itself an explanation.
Struggling with the water glass was telling.
But what was on full display today was his longtime balance problem.
Specifically: negotiating stairs, slopes, ramps, uneven ground. All caught on camera on multiple occasions.
These are all symptoms of Neurosyphilis
A journey of a thousand miles begins with a first step. Thx @realDonaldTrump for daring the mainstream media to cover your health after your tweet...
“Trump’s Halting Walk Down Ramp Raises New Health Questions”
By @maggieNYT @nytimes June 14, 2020
https://t.co/oiQDuhYfKZ?amp=1
“[trump] also appeared to have trouble raising a glass of water to his mouth during a speech at West Point a day before he turned 74, the oldest a president has been in his first term.”
“[trump] faced new questions about his health on Sunday, after videos emerged of him gingerly walking down a ramp at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and having trouble bringing a glass of water to his mouth during a speech there.”
“Another video circulated of [trump{ taking a sip of water from a glass tucked inside his lectern on the dais at West Point. Mr. Trump held the glass with his right hand and brought it to his mouth, but appeared to momentarily have trouble lifting his arm farther.”
“He used his left hand to push the bottom of the glass so that it reached his lips.”
“There was no evidence that the ramp was slippery, and the skies were clear during the ceremony.”
“The videos again raised questions about the health of [trump], whose advisors have never fully explained his abrupt visit to Walter Reed Military Medical Center in November.”
“[trump’s] difficulty traversing stairs and ramps has come up before, most notably in January 2017, when he clutched the hand of Theresa May, then the British prime minister, as they walked at the White House.”
- Philippe Reines
Which is in itself an explanation.
Struggling with the water glass was telling.
But what was on full display today was his longtime balance problem.
Specifically: negotiating stairs, slopes, ramps, uneven ground. All caught on camera on multiple occasions.
These are all symptoms of Neurosyphilis
A journey of a thousand miles begins with a first step. Thx @realDonaldTrump for daring the mainstream media to cover your health after your tweet...
“Trump’s Halting Walk Down Ramp Raises New Health Questions”
By @maggieNYT @nytimes June 14, 2020
https://t.co/oiQDuhYfKZ?amp=1
“[trump] also appeared to have trouble raising a glass of water to his mouth during a speech at West Point a day before he turned 74, the oldest a president has been in his first term.”
“[trump] faced new questions about his health on Sunday, after videos emerged of him gingerly walking down a ramp at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and having trouble bringing a glass of water to his mouth during a speech there.”
“Another video circulated of [trump{ taking a sip of water from a glass tucked inside his lectern on the dais at West Point. Mr. Trump held the glass with his right hand and brought it to his mouth, but appeared to momentarily have trouble lifting his arm farther.”
“He used his left hand to push the bottom of the glass so that it reached his lips.”
“There was no evidence that the ramp was slippery, and the skies were clear during the ceremony.”
“The videos again raised questions about the health of [trump], whose advisors have never fully explained his abrupt visit to Walter Reed Military Medical Center in November.”
“[trump’s] difficulty traversing stairs and ramps has come up before, most notably in January 2017, when he clutched the hand of Theresa May, then the British prime minister, as they walked at the White House.”
- Philippe Reines
MonkeyF0cker
EOG Dedicated
At long last, Dr. Guesser, a guy who can't manage to tie his own shoes without help, has finally provided his medical diagnosis of the President.
Much appreciated.
Much appreciated.
Bigrunner
EOG Master
I also heard you think Hydroxychlorquine is a miracle drug and injecting disinfectants kills Covid 19. Antifa is everywhere.
TheGuesser
EOG Dedicated
An honest Family member of the Idiot? We'll see.
Revealed: The Family Member Who Turned on Trump
BAD BLOOD
The president’s niece Mary Trump is set to publish a tell-all this summer—and to reveal that she was a primary source for The New York Times’ investigation into Trump’s taxes.
Lachlan Cartwright
Senior Reporter
Updated Jun. 14, 2020 8:10PM ET / Published Jun. 14, 2020 7:58PM ET
EXCLUSIVE
Credit: Photo Illustration by The Daily Beast/Getty
Donald Trump’s niece, his deceased brother’s daughter, is set to publish a tell-all book this summer that will detail “harrowing and salacious” stories about the president, according to people with knowledge of the project.
Mary Trump, 55, the daughter of Fred Trump Jr. and Fred Trump Sr.’s eldest grandchild, is scheduled to release Too Much And Never Enough on August 11th, just weeks before the Republican National Convention.
One of the most explosive revelations Mary will detail in the book, according to people familiar with the matter, is how she played a critical role helping The New York Times print startling revelations about Trump’s taxes, including how he was involved in “fraudulent” tax schemes and had received more than $400 million in today’s dollars from his father’s real-estate empire.
As she is set to outline in her book, Mary was a primary source for the paper's Pulitzer Prize-winning investigation, supplying Fred Trump Sr.’s tax returns and other highly confidential family financial documentation to the paper.
Mary Trump has kept out of the public eye and has not spoken publicly in decades—but in 2000, amidst a bitter family court battle over Fred Trump Sr.’s will, she told the New York Daily News, "Given this family, it would be utterly naive to say it has nothing to do with money. But for both me and my brother, it has much more to do with that our father [Fred Jr.] be recognized," she said.
Fred Trump Jr., the firstborn son and once the heir apparent to his father’s real estate empire, worked for Trans World Airlines after turning his back on the family business.
He died in 1981 aged just 42 from a heart attack owing to complications from his alcoholism, leaving behind a son, Fred the 3rd, and daughter Mary, who has a Ph.D. in clinical psychology.
The circumstances of Fred Trump Jr.’s descent into alcoholism are also aired in the book, with allegations that Donald and Fred Trump Sr. contributed to his death and neglected him at critical stages of his addiction.
In a 2019 interview, Donald Trump admitted to pressuring his brother over his career choices but said he had come to regret it. “I do regret having put pressure on him,” Trump told The Washington Post. Discussing his brother and the family business Trump said it “was just something he was never going to want” to do.
“It was just not his thing. . . I think the mistake that we made was we assumed that everybody would like it. That would be the biggest mistake. . . .There was sort of a double pressure put on him,” Trump admitted.
After Fred Jr.’s children brought their messy court case against the family—contesting their grandfather’s will and alleging it was “procured by fraud and undue influence” on the part of Donald and his siblings—they highlighted Donald’s callous treatment of family members as he, along with siblings Maryanne and Robert, cut off the medical benefits to his nephew’s sick child William, who was born with cerebral palsy. The move, the family said at the time, was payback for Mary and Fred the 3rd’s challenge to the will.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/why-i...ld-trump-look-to-george-romney-and-fred-trump
That court case produced a treasure trove of confidential and highly sensitive Trump family financial documents, including Fred Trump Sr.’s tax returns, which almost two decades later would fall into the hands of The New York Times and form the basis for one of the most stunning pieces of journalism in recent years.
In June of 2019, The Daily Beast reported how The New York Times Trump tax team imploded when four-time Pulitzer Prize winner David Barstow went rogue, aggressively pursuing a source of their groundbreaking investigation to ghostwrite their book and secure a six-figure payday—a move explicitly forbidden by the Times’ ethics rules.
That story detailed how Barstow went behind his colleagues’ backs and pursued the source—who was not his source to begin with—even after his editors told him not to do the book.
Barstow even went so far as to make a surprise visit to the source’s residence after they ceased communications with him, staying at least three hours, and ringing the front and back doorbells multiple times as the person hid in their home.
“The source was freaked out. The source felt invaded. They ended up hiding until he left the residence,” a person with knowledge of the situation told The Daily Beast at the time, adding that the source considered calling the police.
While Times Executive Editor Dean Baquet backed Barstow over his questionable ethical decisions and Barstow claimed he acted appropriately, he soon left the paper to take up a position leading the University of California Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism’s investigative reporting program.
At the time of publication, The Daily Beast did not name the source and took extensive measures to protect their identity. In the upcoming book, however, Mary Trump will out herself as a source for the Times and detail her involvement working with journalists Russ Buettner, Susanne Craig, and Barstow to crack the story, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
The book is sure to send shock waves through Washington and the Trump family just months before the election and it comes hot on the heels of John Bolton’s much-anticipated memoir. But unlike all the books by former Trump staffers, this is the first time a Trump family member has written a tell-all that is highly critical of The President.
The bad blood between President Trump and his niece dates back 20 years to the fight over Fred Trump Sr.’s will and the actions he took to cut off financial and medical support for her brother’s ill child. Now that feud is about to spill out into the public eye during a critical election year, with the president struggling to shore up his plummeting popularity.
“My aunt and uncles should be ashamed of themselves,” Mary Trump said about Donald Trump and his siblings in that rare 2000 interview, which provides a preview of the tone of her book. “I'm sure they are not.”
Revealed: The Family Member Who Turned on Trump
BAD BLOOD
The president’s niece Mary Trump is set to publish a tell-all this summer—and to reveal that she was a primary source for The New York Times’ investigation into Trump’s taxes.
Lachlan Cartwright
Senior Reporter
Updated Jun. 14, 2020 8:10PM ET / Published Jun. 14, 2020 7:58PM ET
EXCLUSIVE
Credit: Photo Illustration by The Daily Beast/Getty
Donald Trump’s niece, his deceased brother’s daughter, is set to publish a tell-all book this summer that will detail “harrowing and salacious” stories about the president, according to people with knowledge of the project.
Mary Trump, 55, the daughter of Fred Trump Jr. and Fred Trump Sr.’s eldest grandchild, is scheduled to release Too Much And Never Enough on August 11th, just weeks before the Republican National Convention.
One of the most explosive revelations Mary will detail in the book, according to people familiar with the matter, is how she played a critical role helping The New York Times print startling revelations about Trump’s taxes, including how he was involved in “fraudulent” tax schemes and had received more than $400 million in today’s dollars from his father’s real-estate empire.
As she is set to outline in her book, Mary was a primary source for the paper's Pulitzer Prize-winning investigation, supplying Fred Trump Sr.’s tax returns and other highly confidential family financial documentation to the paper.
- Trump Aides Know His Polls Are Terrible—Tell Him Otherwise
UNSKEW, UNSKEW
Asawin Suebsaeng,
Lachlan Markay
Mary Trump has kept out of the public eye and has not spoken publicly in decades—but in 2000, amidst a bitter family court battle over Fred Trump Sr.’s will, she told the New York Daily News, "Given this family, it would be utterly naive to say it has nothing to do with money. But for both me and my brother, it has much more to do with that our father [Fred Jr.] be recognized," she said.
Fred Trump Jr., the firstborn son and once the heir apparent to his father’s real estate empire, worked for Trans World Airlines after turning his back on the family business.
He died in 1981 aged just 42 from a heart attack owing to complications from his alcoholism, leaving behind a son, Fred the 3rd, and daughter Mary, who has a Ph.D. in clinical psychology.
The circumstances of Fred Trump Jr.’s descent into alcoholism are also aired in the book, with allegations that Donald and Fred Trump Sr. contributed to his death and neglected him at critical stages of his addiction.
In a 2019 interview, Donald Trump admitted to pressuring his brother over his career choices but said he had come to regret it. “I do regret having put pressure on him,” Trump told The Washington Post. Discussing his brother and the family business Trump said it “was just something he was never going to want” to do.
“It was just not his thing. . . I think the mistake that we made was we assumed that everybody would like it. That would be the biggest mistake. . . .There was sort of a double pressure put on him,” Trump admitted.
After Fred Jr.’s children brought their messy court case against the family—contesting their grandfather’s will and alleging it was “procured by fraud and undue influence” on the part of Donald and his siblings—they highlighted Donald’s callous treatment of family members as he, along with siblings Maryanne and Robert, cut off the medical benefits to his nephew’s sick child William, who was born with cerebral palsy. The move, the family said at the time, was payback for Mary and Fred the 3rd’s challenge to the will.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/why-i...ld-trump-look-to-george-romney-and-fred-trump
That court case produced a treasure trove of confidential and highly sensitive Trump family financial documents, including Fred Trump Sr.’s tax returns, which almost two decades later would fall into the hands of The New York Times and form the basis for one of the most stunning pieces of journalism in recent years.
In June of 2019, The Daily Beast reported how The New York Times Trump tax team imploded when four-time Pulitzer Prize winner David Barstow went rogue, aggressively pursuing a source of their groundbreaking investigation to ghostwrite their book and secure a six-figure payday—a move explicitly forbidden by the Times’ ethics rules.
That story detailed how Barstow went behind his colleagues’ backs and pursued the source—who was not his source to begin with—even after his editors told him not to do the book.
Barstow even went so far as to make a surprise visit to the source’s residence after they ceased communications with him, staying at least three hours, and ringing the front and back doorbells multiple times as the person hid in their home.
“The source was freaked out. The source felt invaded. They ended up hiding until he left the residence,” a person with knowledge of the situation told The Daily Beast at the time, adding that the source considered calling the police.
While Times Executive Editor Dean Baquet backed Barstow over his questionable ethical decisions and Barstow claimed he acted appropriately, he soon left the paper to take up a position leading the University of California Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism’s investigative reporting program.
At the time of publication, The Daily Beast did not name the source and took extensive measures to protect their identity. In the upcoming book, however, Mary Trump will out herself as a source for the Times and detail her involvement working with journalists Russ Buettner, Susanne Craig, and Barstow to crack the story, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
The book is sure to send shock waves through Washington and the Trump family just months before the election and it comes hot on the heels of John Bolton’s much-anticipated memoir. But unlike all the books by former Trump staffers, this is the first time a Trump family member has written a tell-all that is highly critical of The President.
The bad blood between President Trump and his niece dates back 20 years to the fight over Fred Trump Sr.’s will and the actions he took to cut off financial and medical support for her brother’s ill child. Now that feud is about to spill out into the public eye during a critical election year, with the president struggling to shore up his plummeting popularity.
“My aunt and uncles should be ashamed of themselves,” Mary Trump said about Donald Trump and his siblings in that rare 2000 interview, which provides a preview of the tone of her book. “I'm sure they are not.”
Most Americans Say Wealth Hasn’t Improved During Trump Years
but stock market doing well
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...during-trump-years?srnd=premium&sref=aQce8n4n
but stock market doing well
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...during-trump-years?srnd=premium&sref=aQce8n4n
TheGuesser
EOG Dedicated
Not NEARLY as well as under Obama. Or Clinton.
TheGuesser
EOG Dedicated
These guys along with the Lincoln project are tremendous:
boston massacre
EOG Master
PEE WEE !
Be Careful in Those Movie Theaters.
Especially at The Children's Movies.
The Ushers will be Closely Watching You.
TheGuesser
EOG Dedicated
You go by %, and it's not even close. By your logic, if the Dow is 1 point higher now, than it was Jan 21st, 2017, then it's higher under Trump.
dow is 25k now ... under obama ended around 18+k that would be november when dem lost 19k+ when left jan
Last edited:
TheGuesser
EOG Dedicated
Obama. 1 slight losing year in 8. The Idiot on his way to his second of 4. Overall performance not even close.
For the full three-year period of Trump’s term, U.S. stocks gained a whopping 52.2% under the Trump administration. That translates to a 15.0% annual return.
By comparison, however, U.S. stocks soared 78.6% in the first three years of the Obama administration for a 21.3% annualized return.
Dow Jones Industrial Average - Historical Annual Data Year Average
Closing Price Year Open Year High Year Low Year Close Annual
% Change
2020 25,525.8328,868.8029,551.4218,591.9325,605.54 -10.28%
2019 26,379.5523,346.2428,645.2622,686.2228,538.44 22.34%
2018 25,046.8624,824.0126,828.3921,792.2023,327.46 -5.63%
2017 21,750.2019,881.7624,837.5119,732.4024,719.22 25.08%
2016 17,927.1117,148.9419,974.6215,660.1819,762.60 13.42%
2015 17,587.0317,832.9918,312.3915,666.4417,425.03 -2.23%
2014 16,777.6916,441.3518,053.7115,372.8017,823.07 7.52%
2013 15,009.5213,412.5516,576.6613,328.8516,576.66 26.50%
2012 12,966.4412,397.3813,610.1512,101.4613,104.14 7.26%
2011 11,957.5711,670.7512,810.5410,655.3012,217.56 5.53%
2010 10,668.5810,583.9611,585.389,686.4811,577.51 11.02%
2009 8,885.659,034.6910,548.516,547.0510,428.05 18.82%
TheGuesser
EOG Dedicated
Not true. It could have kept going down without good economic policy. The Obama market was fantastic. People got rich under Obama. They have maintained it(so far) under the Idiot. 2 Months ago his market was lower than Obama left him. If he keeps F'ing up, it could be again. .
boston massacre
EOG Master
TheGuesser
EOG Dedicated
Yes, but the market performance are what control people's 401K's, IRA's, Mutual fund accounts, etc. Their performances under Obama were objectively far superior than their performance under the Idiot. And that's how most people are in the market.
Bigrunner
EOG Master
Djia up 25% in 3.5 years. It went up 25% a year under Obama. Did better under Trump.
Stock market doing well. Lol. 8% a year. Lol
right but all i said was the stock market is doing well...right now... all those funds with those people have good jobs.. there are so many who do not have that.. those are the people who do not have a job now and probably won't go back .. the stock market does not help everyone.
dow is top 30 companies that is it.... is guess you did not know it...means little to the small guy
TheGuesser
EOG Dedicated
Pretty sure a guy who's field is Economics like Runner knew it, LOL. The DJIA, S & P, and to a lesser degree the NASDAQ performance are all important to the average investor, because that's how most of us are in the market. With funds that try and perform as well or better than those benchmarks. As mediocre as the Idiot's market performance has been compared to Obama's, or Clinton's, I'd still gladly take 8% annually if I could be guaranteed that for the next 10 years. If you give me an investment with guaranteed growth of 8% annually for the next decade, and it's not Madoff like, I'm in. I'm not greedy.
you are forgetting one thing clinton sent the jobs overseas..with the WTO treaty with china. So when you layoff people profits go up and the people have to take lesser paying jobs.. then the dow / S&P do better CLinton rigged the game for wall street. the guy you voted for
TheGuesser
EOG Dedicated
I Never voted for ANY Clinton. And the Jobs started going to China as soon as Nixon opened relations with them.
TheGuesser
EOG Dedicated
The mainstream corporate D's maybe won't acknowledge it, but the Progressive wing of the D party certainly does. Unfortunately they lost. Clinton was a Center Right D, who was basically an R lite.
MonkeyF0cker
EOG Dedicated
LMAO. All of the stimulus and the market bottom were all in before Obama entered office. Even most of the auto bailout was negotiated already. The Obama administration just finalized it.
You have no idea what you're talking about.
clinton is a phony agree. the republicans have been bad for the working man since i have been alive. The US needs fix of the gov't and do something about wall st.. The lower paying people have no voice unless they do something now or the next riots
MonkeyF0cker
EOG Dedicated
TheGuesser
EOG Dedicated
I agree. It's why, except for Obama, I've never voted for a D for POTUS. I only will with Biden because nothing is more important than removing the Fascist traitor before he gets even more of a foothold. Unless Biden becomes far more of a progressive than he's ever shown, I'll be all in on him being a 1 termer.
TheGuesser
EOG Dedicated
I know what he is Dipshit. 1000% smarter than you, for one thing.
biden better than trump for working man .The problem is when taxes go up what will happen ?
TheGuesser
EOG Dedicated
Taxes are going up BIGLY no matter who the next POTUS is. Someone's got to pay for all these Bailouts the Idiot is giving out, and it's always the people. Taxes should go up, but hopefully alot more on the high earners than the average working guy.
MonkeyF0cker
EOG Dedicated
Bigrunner
EOG Master
MonkeyF0cker
EOG Dedicated
Most of the money is getting paid back, Dopey Smurf. Most of it is in loans and corporate bonds.
TheGuesser
EOG Dedicated
This is a B/C poll rated by 538, so not super reliable, although better more reliable than Rasmussen. Still, some amazing numbers if even close to accurate:
Poll: Independents dissatisfied with Trump, Cotton; Biden competitive in Arkansas
TALK POLITICSVIDEO / PODCASTS
by Talk Business & Politics staff (staff2@talkbusiness.net) 6 hours ago 43,791 views
President Donald Trump and U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., are struggling with independent voters in Arkansas less than five months before Election Day.
A new survey from Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College shows that Trump and Cotton have negative job approval ratings with voters, with independents giving them low marks by a double-digit margin. The poll was conducted Tuesday, June 9 and Wednesday, June 10, of 869 statewide likely voters and has a margin of error of +/-3.3%.
Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Donald Trump is doing as President?
46% Approve
50% Disapprove
4% Unsure
Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Tom Cotton is doing as a United States Senator?
44% Approve
47% Disapprove
9% Unsure
While partisan voters predictably cast their strong opinions in positive and negative directions, self-identified independent voters in Arkansas disapprove of Trump by a 39-54% margin and disapprove of Cotton by a 39-51% margin. Voters in this same poll gave Republican Gov. Asa Hutchinson a 62-19% positive job review, with independents supporting Hutchinson by a 64-20% margin.
“Between a pandemic, high unemployment, racial strife and civic unrest, Trump and Cotton appear to be bearing the brunt of voter angst, whereas Gov. Hutchinson is benefiting from his visibility and leadership style,” said Talk Business & Politics Editor-in-Chief Roby Brock.
Trump had a 50-45% job approval rating in the November 2019 Arkansas Poll. Cotton’s job approval was 45-30% in that same poll. Cotton does not have a Democratic opponent in this cycle. He faces Libertarian Ricky Dale Harrington, Jr., while Independent Daniel Whitfield is attempting to qualify for the ballot.
In a baseline question to monitor the presidential race between now and November, Arkansas voters today only give Trump a two-point advantage over Democrat Joe Biden.
Q: If the election for President were being held today, which candidate would you support?
47% Donald J. Trump
45% Joseph R. Biden
5% Another candidate
3% Unsure
Trump won Arkansas with 60% of the vote in 2016. Again, independent voters are leaning to Biden by a 46-40% margin.
“We are seeing trends in other states that resemble the Trump-Biden matchup here, but it has been a decade since we’ve seen independent voters lean to the Democrat versus the Republican in a high-profile race,” Brock said. “Is this an aberration or a trend? It’s a snapshot in time during a turbulent month. I’d have to see this show up consistently to believe something is shifting in deep-red Arkansas, but we’ll be watching this going forward.”
John Brummett, columnist with the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, was interviewed on the poll’s results, which you can view here.
ANALYSIS
Dr. Jay Barth, emeritus professor of politics at Hendrix College, helped craft and analyze the latest poll. He offered this analysis of the poll results:
“In Arkansas, as across the nation, President Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 crisis, the resulting recession, and the social conflicts following the police killing of George Floyd, have combined to harm his public standing. Trump finds himself “under water” with Arkansas voters just five months before the general election that will determine whether he gains a second term. While Trump’s standing remains strong with Republicans in the state, he now has almost no Democratic support and is deeply unpopular with the state’s Independent voters (only 39% of that subgroup is supportive of the President’s job approval). Demographically, the typical patterns show themselves on the Presidents performance; younger voters, voters of color, and women all express strongly negative attitudes towards the President’s performance at this stage of his term.
“While just under half of voters disapprove of his performance, he is still able to eke out a small lead in a prospective matchup with Democrat Joe Biden. While Biden leads with women (50%-42%) and Independents (46%-40%) and has strong leads with non-white voters and voters under 45 years old, President Trump’s standing with other political and demographic groups allows him a lead, albeit one that is startling small in a state where Trump won by 20 points in 2016. While the state’s electoral history suggests that it ultimately will not be closely fought in the fall, Arkansans are split at this troubled moment for the Trump Presidency and even a relatively close presidential vote could have implications elsewhere on the Arkansas ballot.
“Republican U.S. Senator Tom Cotton has no major party opposition to his re-election, but polling of Arkansas’s voters highlights his polarizing nature as a political figure. Aside from a slightly higher percentage of Arkansans who lack an opinion on their junior senator, his approve/disapprove numbers almost perfectly match those of Trump. Cotton and the Republican President are also tethered together as we look across subgroups of voters. Where Trump does well, so does Cotton; where the president is perceived poorly, Cotton is as well. The issue on which Cotton has become particularly polarizing inside and outside the state is his view of protestors across the country in the aftermath of the Floyd killing.”
Robert Coon, managing partner with Impact Management Group, also helped craft and analyze the latest poll. He offered this analysis of the poll results:
“President Donald Trump’s job approval has fallen significantly in several national polls recently, including the monthly Gallup survey which registered a 10 point drop from 49% to 39% last week. While Arkansas has typically been friendlier territory for the president, this survey shows that it’s not immune from shifts in broader public sentiment. Trump’s low rating is being driven by net disapproval among both Independent voters and women. While 90% of Republicans approve of the job Trump is doing, and 99% of Democrats disapprove, Independents disapprove at 54%, with only 39% approving. Along gender lines, men continue to approve of the job Trump is doing (+7), however the number of women that disapprove (55%) has grown to a 14-point margin over those that approve (41%). Finally, while black voters largely disapprove of the president’s job performance (86%), white voters are split (49% approve to 47% disapprove). While coronavirus may be a factor in these findings, Trump’s response to the death of George Floyd and a host of issues involving racial injustice are likely having a greater effect.
Poll: Independents dissatisfied with Trump, Cotton; Biden competitive in Arkansas
TALK POLITICSVIDEO / PODCASTS
by Talk Business & Politics staff (staff2@talkbusiness.net) 6 hours ago 43,791 views
President Donald Trump and U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., are struggling with independent voters in Arkansas less than five months before Election Day.
A new survey from Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College shows that Trump and Cotton have negative job approval ratings with voters, with independents giving them low marks by a double-digit margin. The poll was conducted Tuesday, June 9 and Wednesday, June 10, of 869 statewide likely voters and has a margin of error of +/-3.3%.
Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Donald Trump is doing as President?
46% Approve
50% Disapprove
4% Unsure
Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Tom Cotton is doing as a United States Senator?
44% Approve
47% Disapprove
9% Unsure
While partisan voters predictably cast their strong opinions in positive and negative directions, self-identified independent voters in Arkansas disapprove of Trump by a 39-54% margin and disapprove of Cotton by a 39-51% margin. Voters in this same poll gave Republican Gov. Asa Hutchinson a 62-19% positive job review, with independents supporting Hutchinson by a 64-20% margin.
“Between a pandemic, high unemployment, racial strife and civic unrest, Trump and Cotton appear to be bearing the brunt of voter angst, whereas Gov. Hutchinson is benefiting from his visibility and leadership style,” said Talk Business & Politics Editor-in-Chief Roby Brock.
Trump had a 50-45% job approval rating in the November 2019 Arkansas Poll. Cotton’s job approval was 45-30% in that same poll. Cotton does not have a Democratic opponent in this cycle. He faces Libertarian Ricky Dale Harrington, Jr., while Independent Daniel Whitfield is attempting to qualify for the ballot.
In a baseline question to monitor the presidential race between now and November, Arkansas voters today only give Trump a two-point advantage over Democrat Joe Biden.
Q: If the election for President were being held today, which candidate would you support?
47% Donald J. Trump
45% Joseph R. Biden
5% Another candidate
3% Unsure
Trump won Arkansas with 60% of the vote in 2016. Again, independent voters are leaning to Biden by a 46-40% margin.
“We are seeing trends in other states that resemble the Trump-Biden matchup here, but it has been a decade since we’ve seen independent voters lean to the Democrat versus the Republican in a high-profile race,” Brock said. “Is this an aberration or a trend? It’s a snapshot in time during a turbulent month. I’d have to see this show up consistently to believe something is shifting in deep-red Arkansas, but we’ll be watching this going forward.”
John Brummett, columnist with the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, was interviewed on the poll’s results, which you can view here.
ANALYSIS
Dr. Jay Barth, emeritus professor of politics at Hendrix College, helped craft and analyze the latest poll. He offered this analysis of the poll results:
“In Arkansas, as across the nation, President Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 crisis, the resulting recession, and the social conflicts following the police killing of George Floyd, have combined to harm his public standing. Trump finds himself “under water” with Arkansas voters just five months before the general election that will determine whether he gains a second term. While Trump’s standing remains strong with Republicans in the state, he now has almost no Democratic support and is deeply unpopular with the state’s Independent voters (only 39% of that subgroup is supportive of the President’s job approval). Demographically, the typical patterns show themselves on the Presidents performance; younger voters, voters of color, and women all express strongly negative attitudes towards the President’s performance at this stage of his term.
“While just under half of voters disapprove of his performance, he is still able to eke out a small lead in a prospective matchup with Democrat Joe Biden. While Biden leads with women (50%-42%) and Independents (46%-40%) and has strong leads with non-white voters and voters under 45 years old, President Trump’s standing with other political and demographic groups allows him a lead, albeit one that is startling small in a state where Trump won by 20 points in 2016. While the state’s electoral history suggests that it ultimately will not be closely fought in the fall, Arkansans are split at this troubled moment for the Trump Presidency and even a relatively close presidential vote could have implications elsewhere on the Arkansas ballot.
“Republican U.S. Senator Tom Cotton has no major party opposition to his re-election, but polling of Arkansas’s voters highlights his polarizing nature as a political figure. Aside from a slightly higher percentage of Arkansans who lack an opinion on their junior senator, his approve/disapprove numbers almost perfectly match those of Trump. Cotton and the Republican President are also tethered together as we look across subgroups of voters. Where Trump does well, so does Cotton; where the president is perceived poorly, Cotton is as well. The issue on which Cotton has become particularly polarizing inside and outside the state is his view of protestors across the country in the aftermath of the Floyd killing.”
Robert Coon, managing partner with Impact Management Group, also helped craft and analyze the latest poll. He offered this analysis of the poll results:
“President Donald Trump’s job approval has fallen significantly in several national polls recently, including the monthly Gallup survey which registered a 10 point drop from 49% to 39% last week. While Arkansas has typically been friendlier territory for the president, this survey shows that it’s not immune from shifts in broader public sentiment. Trump’s low rating is being driven by net disapproval among both Independent voters and women. While 90% of Republicans approve of the job Trump is doing, and 99% of Democrats disapprove, Independents disapprove at 54%, with only 39% approving. Along gender lines, men continue to approve of the job Trump is doing (+7), however the number of women that disapprove (55%) has grown to a 14-point margin over those that approve (41%). Finally, while black voters largely disapprove of the president’s job performance (86%), white voters are split (49% approve to 47% disapprove). While coronavirus may be a factor in these findings, Trump’s response to the death of George Floyd and a host of issues involving racial injustice are likely having a greater effect.
TheGuesser
EOG Dedicated
Part 2:
“In many ways, Senator Tom Cotton’s job approval numbers in this survey mirror those of the president. As with Trump, Democrats universally disapprove of the job he’s doing (96%), Republicans near universally approve (85%), and Independents net disapprove by 12 percentage points (51% to 39%). Cotton faces some of the same approval dynamics as the president when it comes to gender. Women net disapprove of Cotton’s job performance (-13), while men approve (+7). Recently, Cotton received national attention for an oped he penned in the New York Times calling for an “overwhelming show of force,” including the use of the U.S. military, to restore order in cities experiencing violence and property damage associated with demonstrations. This viewpoint will undoubtedly resonate with Cotton’s base, as 76% of voters who said they were more concerned about violence and property damage at protests approve of the job he’s doing. Conversely for voters more concerned about racial injustice, 84% disapprove of his job performance.
“For an incumbent president who won Arkansas with 60% of the vote in 2016, these results should be alarming. At 47%, Trump’s lower-than-expected ballot score is being driven by his approval rating, while Joe Biden appears to be a more palatable choice for many than Hillary Clinton. Trump’s base is iron-clad with 99% of voters who approve of the job the president is doing saying they’ll vote for him. However, among voters that disapprove of Trump, 91% plan on voting for Joe Biden, while 7% will vote for another candidate. Fundamentally, Trump is an incredibly polarizing figure – voters either love him or hate him, without much room in-between. He performs better among voters 45-64 (49%) and 65+ (52%), while Biden leads with under 30 (53%) and 30-44 (50%). Notably, Independent voters and women play a major role in the closeness of these survey results, a trend that’s not unique to Arkansas but prevalent across the country. Independents prefer Biden by 6 points (46% to 40%), while women prefer Biden by 8 points (50% to 42%). As the campaign continues through the summer and into the fall, Trump’s team will have to work to rectify his low approval and favorability – especially among Independents and women – a tough task made more difficult by a candidate notoriously difficult to control.
METHODOLOGY
This survey of 869 likely Arkansas voters was conducted June 9-10, 2020, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. Respondents were contacted via text message and given a unique link to complete the survey online.
Age
Under 30 4.2%
Between 30-44 24.2%
Between 45-64 43.1%
65 and over 28.5%
Race
Black 10.2%
Asian 1.0%
White 83.2%
Hispanic 0.5%
Native American 1.5%
Other 3.6%
Party affiliation
Democrat 30.7%
Independent 27.8%
Republican 37.4%
Other 4.1%
Gender
Female 51.7%
Male 48.3%
All media outlets are welcome to reprint, reproduce, or rebroadcast information from this poll with proper attribution to Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College. A link back to this specific story is also required for any digital or online usage by other media outlets.
For interviews, contact Talk Business & Politics Roby Brock by email at roby@talkbusiness.net or Dr. Jay Barth by email at barth@hendrix.edu.
“In many ways, Senator Tom Cotton’s job approval numbers in this survey mirror those of the president. As with Trump, Democrats universally disapprove of the job he’s doing (96%), Republicans near universally approve (85%), and Independents net disapprove by 12 percentage points (51% to 39%). Cotton faces some of the same approval dynamics as the president when it comes to gender. Women net disapprove of Cotton’s job performance (-13), while men approve (+7). Recently, Cotton received national attention for an oped he penned in the New York Times calling for an “overwhelming show of force,” including the use of the U.S. military, to restore order in cities experiencing violence and property damage associated with demonstrations. This viewpoint will undoubtedly resonate with Cotton’s base, as 76% of voters who said they were more concerned about violence and property damage at protests approve of the job he’s doing. Conversely for voters more concerned about racial injustice, 84% disapprove of his job performance.
“For an incumbent president who won Arkansas with 60% of the vote in 2016, these results should be alarming. At 47%, Trump’s lower-than-expected ballot score is being driven by his approval rating, while Joe Biden appears to be a more palatable choice for many than Hillary Clinton. Trump’s base is iron-clad with 99% of voters who approve of the job the president is doing saying they’ll vote for him. However, among voters that disapprove of Trump, 91% plan on voting for Joe Biden, while 7% will vote for another candidate. Fundamentally, Trump is an incredibly polarizing figure – voters either love him or hate him, without much room in-between. He performs better among voters 45-64 (49%) and 65+ (52%), while Biden leads with under 30 (53%) and 30-44 (50%). Notably, Independent voters and women play a major role in the closeness of these survey results, a trend that’s not unique to Arkansas but prevalent across the country. Independents prefer Biden by 6 points (46% to 40%), while women prefer Biden by 8 points (50% to 42%). As the campaign continues through the summer and into the fall, Trump’s team will have to work to rectify his low approval and favorability – especially among Independents and women – a tough task made more difficult by a candidate notoriously difficult to control.
METHODOLOGY
This survey of 869 likely Arkansas voters was conducted June 9-10, 2020, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. Respondents were contacted via text message and given a unique link to complete the survey online.
Age
Under 30 4.2%
Between 30-44 24.2%
Between 45-64 43.1%
65 and over 28.5%
Race
Black 10.2%
Asian 1.0%
White 83.2%
Hispanic 0.5%
Native American 1.5%
Other 3.6%
Party affiliation
Democrat 30.7%
Independent 27.8%
Republican 37.4%
Other 4.1%
Gender
Female 51.7%
Male 48.3%
All media outlets are welcome to reprint, reproduce, or rebroadcast information from this poll with proper attribution to Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College. A link back to this specific story is also required for any digital or online usage by other media outlets.
For interviews, contact Talk Business & Politics Roby Brock by email at roby@talkbusiness.net or Dr. Jay Barth by email at barth@hendrix.edu.