[h=2]Good surebet Bookmakers[/h]
SureBets come and go. In particular SureBets involving odds from betting exchanges are very volatile as user actions move prices at the blink of an eye. So you have to be fast.
First of all, you need fast information. Our SureBet Pro product is aimed at this. We look for new SureBets immediately upon receiving every single odds change from the bookmakers and then instantly publish them at the website. It relies on the fastest data collection available.
Note that this, even if it is industry leading, is not true real-time and that the speed also varies from bookmaker to bookmaker, depending on the way we can access their odds systems. We have a dedicated team working continually on both adding more bookmakers and on improving collection speed from existing bookmakers.
As for placing the bets, you'll quickly develop best practices in doing this. Some very simple advice is:
Do your accountingIf you bet for profit, you need to know if you're successful. The only way to know is to keep accurate account of your betting. For common betting purposes, with a limited set of accounts, this is fairly easy. For arbitrage betting, you need other ways of doing it, as you will use a large number of accounts to do arbitrage.
The foolproof way of doing this is to look at changes in balances.
Example:
When you calculate the total balance at any given point in time, there may be some open bets. The amounts risked will already have been deducted from your account, yet these bets represent an asset which, if ignored, will be valued at zero. Instead, a simple way of taking this into account is to calculate your balances as if all open bets were voided or settled at odds 1.00. If all open bets are parts of SureBets with returns above 0%, then this is a slightly conservative estimate, yet there is also a risk element to consider. For practical purposes, it is a good measure.
Example: At one of your accounts, you have:
As for the net deposits, the correct way of doing this is to calculate this from the point of view of the accounts where the money left. So if you make a deposit, don't look at what arrives at the bookmaker's account, look at what left your bank account or credit card or whatever the source of the transaction was. And if you make a withdrawal, don't look at what left your bookmaker account, look atwhat arrives at your bank account. In this way, you will automatically get all transaction costs included.
The risk of having bets voidedBookmakers and even exchanges may void your bets even after they were accepted online. The typical reason for doing so is that the odds posted were "obviously wrong". Once you've placed the bets constituting a SureBet, having one of them voided will leave you exposed to lose the other bets without any win, in case the voided bet was the winning one. The prudent action is then to place a loss-minimizing bet by taking the second-best price you can get, even if it means locking in a small loss instead of a small win.
Unfortunately, many bookmakers won't even notify you of the voiding, in which case you'll be likely not to find out until after the fact. This implies that you have to assess the risk of voiding before placing the bet.
If odds look likely to be posted by an error, which is typically the case when the SureBet return is very high, be careful. For high return SureBets, use the odds comparison table at BetBrain to see which of the bookmakers has the most extreme odds. This is the one you should be vary of.
Asking the bookmaker to confirm the odds before placing the bets is a good idea, but will obviously often mean that you miss out on the SureBet because the odds will have changed by the time you get assurance that they are ok. Still, this is advisable. SureBetting is about many small accumulated returns, not about the big kill. And if you have bad luck after voiding, you'll be a long time recovering your loss again. One possible action to take is to check bets you consider risky in terms of voiding after placing them. You might do this shortly after placing the bet. Or regularly, say daily until the bet is settled.
Exchanges tend to void considerably less frequently than bookmakers. After all, they didn't post the odds. Still, it may happen. One example could be that the exchange discovers that incorrect match info was posted, for instance wrong home team or wrong kick-off time. They may then cancel all bets made and restart the market. And you've lucked out. The same goes for bookmakers, so check event information as well as odds before placing bets.
Order of placing betsWhen you place a SureBet, obviously you need to place the component bets in quick succession in order to avoid getting caught by odds changes. You accomplish this by opening all the bookmaker pages, creating the betting slips, and entering the required amounts everywhere, proceeding until the bet confirmation stage everywhere, before confirming the first bet.
The order of placing the bets is certainly not irrelevant. Always start by placing the bet(s) that are least likely to be accepted. Bet size is a major concern here.
Some bookmakers (and all exchanges) announce the volume accepted / available for betting in the betting slip or at least at the final stage prior to confirming the bet, but many bookmakers won't announce the bet limit prior to actually placing the bets. So you may end up placing one side of the SureBet but only being able to get on half the amount for the other side, in which case you'll have to fill up the remainder with the second best price on that side, if at all possible. To avoid this, start by placing the bet with the highest risk of being limited in stake.
For bets involving only betting exchanges, start by placing the one with the least liquidity, as this has the highest probability of disappearing in the process of placing the bets.
Deposits and withdrawalsTransaction costs can potentially eat away large parts of your profit.
Example: Assume that you want to place a ?1,000 SureBet with a return of 1.5%. If you use three bookmakers, all with a 1% fee on credit card deposits and a 2% fee on withdrawals, you'll end up losing 1.52% if you make deposits and withdrawals immediately before and after the SureBet:
So, approximately, your return is equal to the SureBet return less the sum of the two transaction costs, 1.5% - 1% - 2% = -1.5%.
So, when you make deposits and withdrawals, look out for cheap options. Credit cards are often the most expensive ways of transacting, while online payment solutions such as Moneybookers and Neteller will often be cheaper. Fees for the same service vary a lot between bookmakers.
You might be tempted to think that the example above means that the SureBet return should then exceed the sum of transaction costs in order to be profitable. This is not the case if you follow a better transaction strategy. It does, however, require that you have liquidity to spare.
Example (continued):
Using the SureBet CalculatorFor optimal use of the SureBet calculator, here are some tips:
First of all, you need fast information. Our SureBet Pro product is aimed at this. We look for new SureBets immediately upon receiving every single odds change from the bookmakers and then instantly publish them at the website. It relies on the fastest data collection available.
Note that this, even if it is industry leading, is not true real-time and that the speed also varies from bookmaker to bookmaker, depending on the way we can access their odds systems. We have a dedicated team working continually on both adding more bookmakers and on improving collection speed from existing bookmakers.
As for placing the bets, you'll quickly develop best practices in doing this. Some very simple advice is:
- Keep your account information in a single place with easy access.
- Keep bookmaker browser windows open for later access.
- Always watch the balances at your accounts before placing the first bet in order to avoid having to make a deposit in the middle of placing the bets. You may even have surpassed your credit card limit for the day.
- Check kick-off and don't try to place SureBets immediately before the event starts, as you'll be left with no time to react in case something unexpected happens.
- Don't push yourself! When tired, take a break or stop. You will make errors and risk losing what took you weeks to build up.
Do your accountingIf you bet for profit, you need to know if you're successful. The only way to know is to keep accurate account of your betting. For common betting purposes, with a limited set of accounts, this is fairly easy. For arbitrage betting, you need other ways of doing it, as you will use a large number of accounts to do arbitrage.
The foolproof way of doing this is to look at changes in balances.
Example:
- You have 20 accounts with a total balance of ?10,000 at the beginning of a month.
- This increases to ?12,000 by the end of the month.
- During the month you made (net) deposits of ?500.
- Then your profit is ?12,000 - ?10,000 - ?500 = ?1,500.
When you calculate the total balance at any given point in time, there may be some open bets. The amounts risked will already have been deducted from your account, yet these bets represent an asset which, if ignored, will be valued at zero. Instead, a simple way of taking this into account is to calculate your balances as if all open bets were voided or settled at odds 1.00. If all open bets are parts of SureBets with returns above 0%, then this is a slightly conservative estimate, yet there is also a risk element to consider. For practical purposes, it is a good measure.
Example: At one of your accounts, you have:
- A balance of ?1,500.
- Open back bets with a total risk (stake) of ?200.
- Open lay bets with a total risk of ?300.
- You should count this as a total value of ?1,500 + ?200 + ?300 = ?2,000 when you calculate the total balance.
As for the net deposits, the correct way of doing this is to calculate this from the point of view of the accounts where the money left. So if you make a deposit, don't look at what arrives at the bookmaker's account, look at what left your bank account or credit card or whatever the source of the transaction was. And if you make a withdrawal, don't look at what left your bookmaker account, look atwhat arrives at your bank account. In this way, you will automatically get all transaction costs included.
The risk of having bets voidedBookmakers and even exchanges may void your bets even after they were accepted online. The typical reason for doing so is that the odds posted were "obviously wrong". Once you've placed the bets constituting a SureBet, having one of them voided will leave you exposed to lose the other bets without any win, in case the voided bet was the winning one. The prudent action is then to place a loss-minimizing bet by taking the second-best price you can get, even if it means locking in a small loss instead of a small win.
Unfortunately, many bookmakers won't even notify you of the voiding, in which case you'll be likely not to find out until after the fact. This implies that you have to assess the risk of voiding before placing the bet.
If odds look likely to be posted by an error, which is typically the case when the SureBet return is very high, be careful. For high return SureBets, use the odds comparison table at BetBrain to see which of the bookmakers has the most extreme odds. This is the one you should be vary of.
Asking the bookmaker to confirm the odds before placing the bets is a good idea, but will obviously often mean that you miss out on the SureBet because the odds will have changed by the time you get assurance that they are ok. Still, this is advisable. SureBetting is about many small accumulated returns, not about the big kill. And if you have bad luck after voiding, you'll be a long time recovering your loss again. One possible action to take is to check bets you consider risky in terms of voiding after placing them. You might do this shortly after placing the bet. Or regularly, say daily until the bet is settled.
Exchanges tend to void considerably less frequently than bookmakers. After all, they didn't post the odds. Still, it may happen. One example could be that the exchange discovers that incorrect match info was posted, for instance wrong home team or wrong kick-off time. They may then cancel all bets made and restart the market. And you've lucked out. The same goes for bookmakers, so check event information as well as odds before placing bets.
Order of placing betsWhen you place a SureBet, obviously you need to place the component bets in quick succession in order to avoid getting caught by odds changes. You accomplish this by opening all the bookmaker pages, creating the betting slips, and entering the required amounts everywhere, proceeding until the bet confirmation stage everywhere, before confirming the first bet.
The order of placing the bets is certainly not irrelevant. Always start by placing the bet(s) that are least likely to be accepted. Bet size is a major concern here.
Some bookmakers (and all exchanges) announce the volume accepted / available for betting in the betting slip or at least at the final stage prior to confirming the bet, but many bookmakers won't announce the bet limit prior to actually placing the bets. So you may end up placing one side of the SureBet but only being able to get on half the amount for the other side, in which case you'll have to fill up the remainder with the second best price on that side, if at all possible. To avoid this, start by placing the bet with the highest risk of being limited in stake.
For bets involving only betting exchanges, start by placing the one with the least liquidity, as this has the highest probability of disappearing in the process of placing the bets.
Deposits and withdrawalsTransaction costs can potentially eat away large parts of your profit.
Example: Assume that you want to place a ?1,000 SureBet with a return of 1.5%. If you use three bookmakers, all with a 1% fee on credit card deposits and a 2% fee on withdrawals, you'll end up losing 1.52% if you make deposits and withdrawals immediately before and after the SureBet:
- To obtain ?1,000 in total at the three accounts, you spend ?1010.10.
- The ?1,000 then grows to ?1015 by way of the SureBet.
- And after withdrawing the money to your bank account, you're left with ?994.70, a loss of 1.52%.
So, approximately, your return is equal to the SureBet return less the sum of the two transaction costs, 1.5% - 1% - 2% = -1.5%.
So, when you make deposits and withdrawals, look out for cheap options. Credit cards are often the most expensive ways of transacting, while online payment solutions such as Moneybookers and Neteller will often be cheaper. Fees for the same service vary a lot between bookmakers.
You might be tempted to think that the example above means that the SureBet return should then exceed the sum of transaction costs in order to be profitable. This is not the case if you follow a better transaction strategy. It does, however, require that you have liquidity to spare.
Example (continued):
- Start by depositing not ?1,000 but ?10,000. You incur a cost of ?101 in order to do this. So you've spent at total of ?10,101.
- Now you place your ?1,000 SureBet at a return of 1.5%. You make a profit of ?15 and you have the balance increase at one of your account and diminish at other accounts. The total balance at your accounts increase to ?10,015.
- Do it again next day, and you'll make another ?15. Again, one of your accounts will get a large win and the others will decrease. The total is now ?10,030.
- Continue like this. You will only need to make another deposit in case one of your accounts runs dry. This is however unlikely to happen as the bets are relatively small compared to the starting balances at the accounts. It is small in the same order of magnitude as the probability of tossing a coin and getting Heads ten times in a row, very small. We conclude that you may continue to bet without making more deposits.
- After many bets, the total balance has increased to ?11,000.
- Now make a withdrawal of ?1,000, bringing down your total balance to the initial level of ?10,000. The cost will be ?20. Your profit at this stage, net of transaction costs will be ?1,000 - ?101 - ?20 = ?879.
- As you continue to increase your balance through SureBetting, you can keep making withdrawals. From now on it's just the profit which is decreased by the 2% transaction cost. For every ?1,000 betting profit you make, you pay ?20 to get the money in hand.
- The restrictive assumption above is that you have deep enough pockets to never make a withdrawal until the balance is sufficiently high to make you sure that the withdrawal will not trigger a subsequent deposit at the same account.
- To put the reasoning above very short: Never withdraw money from an account where you may later need more money. Then you can make money even of SureBet returns much smaller than the transaction costs!
Using the SureBet CalculatorFor optimal use of the SureBet calculator, here are some tips:
- NOTE: It is assumed in the SureBet calculator, that you use the EU (decimal) style odds format. This is for convenience in the calculations. Errors will appear if you have the SureBet page in another odds format and try to do SureBet calculations.
- There may be SureBets you can't take advantage of, as you can't get an account with one of the bookmakers involved. Simply go to My Bookmakers and remove this bookmaker from your list. It will disappear from all odds tables, the SureBets page and the SureBet Calculator.
- As you inspect the SureBet page, take it from the top. The top SureBet can either be exploited by you or is for some reason uninteresting. Either way, once you?ve investigated it, you can remove it from the page by hiding all SureBets that involve one or more of the bets involved. In this way, as you work with the page, it will become a to do-list of uninvestigated SureBets. The shorter the list, the easier it is for you to overview. Combined with the true push-solution that publishes SureBets directly to your browser without any need for a refresh you have a very efficient system for detecting and exploiting SureBets.
- In an ideal SureBet, stakes are calculated such that the profit is identical no matter the outcome. For practical purposes, we round off the stakes to the nearest integer. This means that the profits per outcome are slightly different. For every outcome, you can check the profit in case this outcome happens.
- The currency of the profits is identical to that you chose for the total risk.
- Note that for lay bets, the stake mentioned is the stake of the bet you accept. It is not the risk you undertake. If you lay a stake of ?200 at odds 5.00, your risk is ?200 x (5 ? 1) = ?800. For this reason, the stakes in a back-lay SureBet don't add to the total risk.
- When dealing with betting exchanges, you'll often be limited by an amount available. This even happens with bookmakers with restrictive bet limit policies. For these cases lock the stake of the restrictive bet to its maximum size in order to calculate the rest of the stakes, including the total risk.
- You can calculate SureBets even when the account currencies are not identical. We update exchange rates hourly from the European Central Bank. While you may at any time change the currency settings, the default values will be those set by you at My Bookmakers.
- You can manually adjust the commission rates for betting exchanges in the calculator. The default rates shown are those you chose at My Bookmakers.
- You can manually adjust the odds. Say that you go to a betting exchange just to find out that the odds are slightly different than what we show at BetOnValue. Then just enter the new odds, click Calculate, and check for profits.
- The calculator allows you to try out other odds than the best odds available. Simply select another bookmaker from the drop down list. This is useful for instance when
- You don't have an account (or sufficient money) where the highest odds are, but you do have at another provider with almost as good odds.
- Odds have changed at the bookmaker with the highest odds.
- Odds may be updated at BetOnValue while you're working in the SureBet calculator. The odds in the SureBet calculator will however remain fixed.
- If you use the accounting system then you will also get the links for registering each of the comprising bets.
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