Spreadbeater's Wednesday NBA.....

[Spreadbeater]

YTD 1-0

Nice way to start off the season, winning with a 7.5 point underdog that wins outright by 9 points. On to today's plays....

Knicks Moneyline +1.55 1 Unit

I'll take my chances here with another dog that I think can win straight up. The Celtics will regress this season in my opinion, as they have lost two key players from last season, Payton and Walker. They have not really replaced them. Also they are banged up, no Banks or Allen for a while. Their frontcourt is below average and their point guard spot is an even bigger concern. Currently they have West playing point guard, he is not a natural PG. They will most likely end up going with Dickau, but that still does not concern me. Basically, I think the Celtics will not be very good this season, as they have Pierce and not much else. The Knicks, on the other hand, will improve. They acquired Q Richardson, Antonio Davis, and most importantly, Eddy Curry. Not to mention drafting Frye and one of my favorite players in recent years, Nate Robinson. Also added Coach Larry Brown. I expect the Knicks to be much improved, especially on the defensive end. They are clearly more talented than the Celtics at every position except the small forward. Knicks have a huge advantage in the backcourt and also have a huge advantage in the frontcourt. More depth as well. I will take my chances here with what I believe is the better team. Knicks outright.

Bobcats +10 (Buying .5 point) 1 Unit

This is another team that will get better from last season. Most second year teams generally do. I like their two draft picks, especially Felton. They have played the Bulls tough before and I expect them to keep this one close as well. The Bulls will clearly be the better team this season, but they have a huge weakness in the frontcourt. Their only real "big" is Chandler. Not much after that. For Charlotte, they do have some bigs, in Brezec, Okafur, and May. I look for Charlotte to keep this one close and keep it within single digits. Not a very strong play, but I will take my chances with all these points.

Portland/Minnesota Under 186 1 Unit

Lots of reasons to play this one. First off, Portland is terrible. They have not scored much in the preseason, putting up 85 points or less in 7 of their 8 preseason games. Even hung a 73 and a 78 point game up there. They are just not good, plain and simple. For Minnesota, their new coach is more defensive minded than Flip used to be. They will concentrate on the defensive end. On the offensive end, they are a little above average. Not much there offensively besides KG. Timberwolves games have been somewhat low scoring as well in the preseason. Also, only one out of the last 7 games between these two teams has the total gone over this number. I like the under here.

I may add one or two plays later in the day. I will be back in a few hours. Good luck guys!

SB
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[Spreadbeater]

Adding:

Adding:

Have to add this one now, as I see the line moving down on me, and SOS still has same number as overnights.

Dallas/Utah Under 196 1 Unit ***Line from SOS***

Writeup later. Gotta run.
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[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

Great job last night. I would last 5 minutes in SOS. Where is your specialty Miami Heat team report for tonight? Dallas looks like a defensive team. Number says different. Working the totals...


Best Wishes...OF :+waving-5

 

[Spreadbeater]

Great job last night. I would last 5 minutes in SOS. Where is your specialty Miami Heat team report for tonight? Dallas looks like a defensive team. Number says different. Working the totals...


Best Wishes...OF :+waving-5

Thanks FROG, Bucks hit was very nice, as I also had them on the moneyline. They will surprise some teams this season. TJ Ford looked great, as did Simmons. Bogut was solid. Redd stepped up late. Once Magloire gets involved, this team will be much better. Also have Kukoc and Joe Smith in the frontcourt rotation. They have a chance to be solid. Just lacking a little backcourt depth, as well as defense. But they will have their moments.

As for my Heat, here are my thoughts for tonight. It is very hard to get a good read on this team so early, as there are many new faces and this is their first real game playing together. Payton, J Will, Kapono, 'Toine, Posey.....it may take some time to gel. This game tonight is interesting. No Posey, nor Shandon Anderson for the Heat. Meaning lack of perimter defense. Until Posey returns, Wade will be counted on to guard the opposition's top scorer. Added burden for D Wade. They will have a tough time chasing the shooters for Memphis. They may get burned on the arc. If Battier and Miller are hitting shots, the Grizz can pull the upset. It would not shock me. Eddie Jones knows this Heat team very well, so he will have his new team ready for many sets the Heat will run. Also, Fratello was the Heat TV announcer for the beginning of last season before he landed the Memphis job, so he knows this team well also. Just no telling how this one will turn out tonight. I can see a Heat win by DD, a close Heat win, and also a Memphis win. No clue. No lean on the total. Heat dont look like a defensive powerhouse, but who knows. I will pass on both side and total until I see this team for a little while play together. Sorry for no lean either way, but just telling you how I see it. However, I am waiting for the number to come out for tomorrow night's game against the Pacers. If that number is right, I may pull the trigger.

Yes, I agree with Dallas. I played the under at 196 and see it has since dropped to 193. Dallas will be more defensive minded this season and Utah doesnt do anything for me offensively. No Boozer. Just dont see this one at a pace fast enough to reach this number. But that is why they play the games. Just hoping for no double OT.

SB

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

Thanks. Mia -6. Indy. Seems about right, depending more on tonight's results than usual. There may be a time to bet against the Heat, but these first two are rough and low numbers. Maybe when they are playing real crappy teams they will ease up. Wade has the help, when they play but until then it may be dicey going under. This drop to 186 is scary for these two. They can score. If I look at the Heat, they look like a score first defend second team now. And will they continue to set up half court to feed Shaq, or will they run a lot more now with JWill pushing. If Heat sag and give up looks on arc, Memphis has the guys to make them pay. It is mere speculation vs. read now. A must watch game for me.


Best Wishes...oF:+waving-5

 

[Spreadbeater]

Thanks. Mia -6. Indy. Seems about right, depending more on tonight's results than usual. There may be a time to bet against the Heat, but these first two are rough and low numbers. Maybe when they are playing real crappy teams they will ease up. Wade has the help, when they play but until then it may be dicey going under. This drop to 186 is scary for these two. They can score. If I look at the Heat, they look like a score first defend second team now. And will they continue to set up half court to feed Shaq, or will they run a lot more now with JWill pushing. If Heat sag and give up looks on arc, Memphis has the guys to make them pay. It is mere speculation vs. read now. A must watch game for me.


Best Wishes...oF:+waving-5

Yes, the Heat will be a score first team. Probably will be that way all season long, I think the defense will come in time. J Will and Toine not exactly what you would call good defenders. Plus, 'Toine will most likely start at the 3 spot tonight, meaning he is out of position. Harder for him to chase the other 3's around. But he will have his own benefit on offense down on the block. I think you will see a lot of run and gun from this Heat team. However, the Grizz have been a good defensive team. Plus dont underestimate the fact that both Fratello and Eddie Jones are very familiar with the plays the Heat run. Will not play anything here in this game, will just simply enjoy watching my Heat play their first game.

FROG, besides the Dallas/Utah under, are we on the same side on anything else tonight?

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

Bobcats. I just took the +9 1/2. Not so sure the Bulls will be all that without Curry. I think I wrote it up in my thread.


Best Wishes...OF

 

[Spreadbeater]

Bobcats. I just took the +9 1/2. Not so sure the Bulls will be all that without Curry. I think I wrote it up in my thread.


Best Wishes...OF

Nice to be on the same side with you on those two. I guess I am on my own on my other two. Really like the under in the Blazers game and do think that the Knicks are a better team than Boston. Good luck with the rest of your stuff tonight FROG.

SB

 

[Spreadbeater]

End Up 3-1 For the Night.....

End Up 3-1 For the Night.....

End up 3-1 for the night, with both totals hitting rather easily. Bobcats got scary at the end, but were actually winning outright by double digits all game. Only loser was Knicks, who could not hit a free throw. Shot under 55% from the line in regulation. Still will take 3-1 any night of the week. Hope guys cashed with me!

SB
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[GreenDoberman]

good plays and good writeups both of you.:+thumbs-2

 

[Spreadbeater]

good plays and good writeups both of you.:+thumbs-2

Thanks. Updated record now 4-1. Still mad about poor FT shooting Knicks. That should have been a winner and I could easily be 5-0. But hey, this is the NBA. I am used to it.

SB

 

[red26]

End up 3-1 for the night, with both totals hitting rather easily. Bobcats got scary at the end, but were actually winning outright by double digits all game. Only loser was Knicks, who could not hit a free throw. Shot under 55% from the line in regulation. Still will take 3-1 any night of the week. Hope guys cashed with me!

SB
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Great writeups and analysis. :+thumbs-2

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

Next. Great job. Big game tonight as probable top two face each other. I have my observations, but always like to hear yours regarding Heat. You have passed me in the write up department. I used to be good like you, just throw out some brief observations now. Good chance I visit Pasadena tonight.


Best Wishes...OF :+waving-5

 

[Spreadbeater]

Next. Great job. Big game tonight as probable top two face each other. I have my observations, but always like to hear yours regarding Heat. You have passed me in the write up department. I used to be good like you, just throw out some brief observations now. Good chance I visit Pasadena tonight.


Best Wishes...OF :+waving-5

Yes, tonight is a big game for both teams even though it is so early in the season. I played Under 187, but forgot to post it here, only posted it at our old home. I am still sitting with it, but may get off of it. Not sure. It should be a close game like usual between these two. Pacers have actually won 5 of the last 6. They always play us close. Even the game we did win, we only won by 4, 84-80 I believe. Most times these are very close, low scoring games. I would think that this would continue, but I will pass on playing the Pacers, as I dont care to root against my wallet tonight. So just sitting with the under, 187, but may get off of it. I will let you know before I head out to the game. Should be a great one. Home opener against rival Pacers, Playoff type atmosphere for sure. Just hope my Heat get it done.

Good job last night also FROG. We won both games that we were on the same side on. I was as close as you can come to playing a game without actually playing it on the Clippers game. Just loved them getting all the points. Just got gun shy when Maggette was announced out. But, they still covered and won outright. They will be much improved this season, while Seattle will take a step back. May even miss playoffs, I would not be surprised.

Great start to the season by both of us. However, I see that you are only hitting at 75%. You need to catch up to my 80%. LOL. Keep up the great work. Already have some games circled for Friday, just waiting on the lines.

SB

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

Yes, I am watching the first game, if I get back from Black Bass pond in time. PF for Heat still a weakness. A strength for Indy. I thought a couple of the last few games were real high scoring? Heat used to need Shaq on floor. No more. They can rest him, go for under 30 minutes a game or when required to save him for post season. Worst free throw shooter ever. Definite pass, just like last night. Saw 187 1/2, passed as both of these scored over 90 last night. I think 86 is good here, but could bust 200, or end 160's. Too volatile for my tastes. Prefer un 203, bigger number and possible worse offenses. Feel empty not having un187 1/2 to ov184 but can't work them all.

Enjoy the game, you going?


Best Wishes...OF :+waving-5

 

[Spreadbeater]

Yes, I am watching the first game, if I get back from Black Bass pond in time. PF for Heat still a weakness. A strength for Indy. I thought a couple of the last few games were real high scoring? Heat used to need Shaq on floor. No more. They can rest him, go for under 30 minutes a game or when required to save him for post season. Worst free throw shooter ever. Definite pass, just like last night. Saw 187 1/2, passed as both of these scored over 90 last night. I think 86 is good here, but could bust 200, or end 160's. Too volatile for my tastes. Prefer un 203, bigger number and possible worse offenses. Feel empty not having un187 1/2 to ov184 but can't work them all.

Enjoy the game, you going?


Best Wishes...OF :+waving-5

I wouldnt say that PF is exactly a weakness for the Heat. I know that you do not like UD, but he gets the job done. A little undersized, but hits the boards well. Good midrange jumpshooter and explosive to the basket. Good FT shooter for his position. Solid defender as well. Also, the Heat will have 'Toine playing many minutes at the PF position once Posey returns.

Yes, some games have been high scoring between the two. Some OT games mixed in there though. I hear you about the total, I played it under because that was my lean plus I knew the line would move down. May "hop" off of it.

Think you are on the right side with Suns/Lakers. Lakers off OT game and Suns not same Suns. May play it small or pass. Lots of good spots tomorrow.

And to answer your question, YES OF COURSE I will be there tonight. Cant wait!!!!!!!

SB

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

How did UD get the job done last night. Hmmm. 1-6 6 points, 8 rebs, 0 ass. 0 blk, 0 st. 5 pf. His backup? Don't have one. Enjoy the game, awesome do not miss early season matchup. I should be home before tip, if not by 2H. Crunchtime in a close one will be interesting. Again, enjoy.


Off to the pond, Best Wishes...OF :+waving-5

 

[Spreadbeater]

How did UD get the job done last night. Hmmm. 1-6 6 points, 8 rebs, 0 ass. 0 blk, 0 st. 5 pf. His backup? Don't have one. Enjoy the game, awesome do not miss early season matchup. I should be home before tip, if not by 2H. Crunchtime in a close one will be interesting. Again, enjoy.


Off to the pond, Best Wishes...OF :+waving-5

Oh FROG, my former associate, you know better than to talk about a player's overall game after one game into the season! I would prefer to look at last season. 11 points, 9 rebounds a game. Plus 80% from the FT line. Solid defense and 110% hustle every night. Does that seem like a weakness on a team that has 'Toine, SHAQ, and D Wade? I think not my former associate. That seems more like the perfect compliment, a solid role player.

Hope you make it for some of the game. It should be a good one!

SB

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

Heat look, well, not as good as Indy. Shaq went from always playing to oft injured. Lasted less than two games. Big fella might as well be a porcelain doll as fragile as he is these days. Has he been teaching Zo ft technique? Indy pretty much won most positions, frontline and depth. Probably creating the entire new roster for added offense took away team defense. So they are a score first team. When is Posey comeback? JWill was a disaster. They looked better with the glove, but neither can d it up for any length of time. No waekside help half the time, and too many easy looks all game long. Still not a Hasbeen, Haslem, what is his name?, fan. Usually his man got to the front of the rim. Well, lucky they have lousy division and rest of season to try and get Shaq healthy. They won't win nothing without him. My early vote, was a mistake by Riley dismantling team 1 minute away from Finals.


Best Wishes...OF :+waving-5

 

[Spreadbeater]

Heat look, well, not as good as Indy. Shaq went from always playing to oft injured. Lasted less than two games. Big fella might as well be a porcelain doll as fragile as he is these days. Has he been teaching Zo ft technique? Indy pretty much won most positions, frontline and depth. Probably creating the entire new roster for added offense took away team defense. So they are a score first team. When is Posey comeback? JWill was a disaster. They looked better with the glove, but neither can d it up for any length of time. No waekside help half the time, and too many easy looks all game long. Still not a Hasbeen, Haslem, what is his name?, fan. Usually his man got to the front of the rim. Well, lucky they have lousy division and rest of season to try and get Shaq healthy. They won't win nothing without him. My early vote, was a mistake by Riley dismantling team 1 minute away from Finals.


Best Wishes...OF :+waving-5

Yes, Indy looked like the better team last night. That is for sure. But with as bad as Miami looked, they lost by only 3 points. J Will was terrible. Shaq got hurt late in game. Pacers hit two seperate 3's at the buzzer to end quarters. 'Toine was a disaster last night. And once again, even with all that, Heat only lose by 3. So not overly worried. They are still without Posey, who is more of a difference maker than most would think. Not so much on offense, but on defense. He will be out probably another week. Heat could not defend the pick and roll as Jermaine O'Neal killed them. Nobody could defend Ron Artest, but not sure if anyone can in the whole league. Pacers played like a team that has been together for a while, while Heat played like a team getting to know each other. Should be expected. Still kicking myself for not playing Pacers + points.

As for the moves that Riles made, I have mixed feelings. I think that team last season with a couple of additions would have been just fine. On the other hand, I was never a huge Eddie Jones fan and getting rid of his contract was a plus. I am not sure there is one GM in the league that would not have swapped Eddie Jones and Rasual Butler for Posey, J Will, and 'Toine Walker. Damon was going to leave either way. Keyon also. Give this Heat team time and they will be just fine. Last year's team started 10-6 and then rattled off 14 straight. I will be patient here and just hope we are healthy when it matters most, in the playoffs.

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

Yes, with a entire season they have time to gel, and get healthy. But team defense wins championships and I am not sure they have the personel. I really do not like Eddie Jones either, but Toine and JWill are not my type of players either. Sometimes you have to get personel to beat the competition. Both Indy and Motown are heavy with f/c types. I am not picking on the Heat because you like them, just thinking Pat should have dumped Eddie for a big. I think they should have looked for a dirty work guy for banging, boards and defense, a screen setter. Posey has got to help, as they looked lost defensively. Yes, I saw the +6 on Indy late, and still passed. I passed on the under 187 1/2, as I thought it had a good chance of being high scoring, then missed the ov 184. Only thing I did right was hit the 2nd half. Bad night when both dogs win outright and I do not earn. It's early. I am not even investing in totals/middles as these results are not even close to numbers. Not into taking a juice bath until the results are at least close. Probably best bet now is 2H and quality dogs. Back to work.


Best Wishes...OF :+waving-5

 

[Spreadbeater]

Shaq Out 2-4 Weeks....

Shaq Out 2-4 Weeks....

Shaq will be out 2-4 weeks. Yikes, not exactly what a team that is learning to play with each other needs. But, they will be OK. They actually play better at times with Shaq not in the lineup. Zo will be fine replacing him. Doleac adds some depth, as does the rookie Earlarron. Not to mention Wayne Simeon as well at the PF position. We will be OK. Heat actually went 6-3 last season without the Diesel.

FROG, get to work. These lines are moving. The only thing that I am on so far is the Pistons -2 from last night. Thats it so far, but looking at about 3-4 others. I missed a good number in one of the games so I may pass on that game.