So much fear mongering by alphabeat soup world govt orgs, they benefit my stretching it out. The Models are 99% utter nonsense. IF allowed I would like to lower my prediction to about half of dell dudes numbers
I think you have the best death rate pctDeadline in less than 5 minutes.
I'll play, 590,000 cases/ 3,100 deaths
Well, now that the selection deadline has passed, I’ll elaborate.
My 90,000/2500 estimate most certainly is not based on any concept that “COVID-19 is no worse than the flu, and this all is a big overreaction.” I instead believe that this is a very serious outbreak with at least the potential – if unchecked – to rival the 1919 Spanish flu.
But, first, the bet is tied to when the World Health Organization stands down from its global pandemic label. Just like WHO was slow to use the pandemic label in the first instance, I believe that they will be quick, possibly quicker than they should be, in standing down from that particular label. Among other things, there is tremendous pressure, which will get even stronger, to keep economies running so that the global powers that be can remain the powers that be.
So, my estimate is not as to the total number of cases/deaths for the actual total duration of the COVID-19 outbreak(s) – including possible recurring waves over the next few years, like with prior pandemics. It instead is tied to the first date on which WHO downgrades this from a global pandemic, which pronouncement I expect to be made actually sooner than it should.
Second, the bet is premised upon an optimistic assessment that the extreme shutdown measures in the United States will be mostly effective by that date when WHO first (probably prematurely) downgrades this from a global pandemic.
For that projection, directly extrapolating from the numbers in other countries is problematic for a number of reasons. For example, China’s numbers are highly unreliable (they under-represent, but there’s also a billion or so people there), and Italy had its “oh . . . shit” moment later in the relative stages of the process than in the U.S. before Italy adopted similar shutdown measures. And there also are cultural differences, such as cross-generational personal proximity and smoking rates, that factor in. And of course there’s variances among the countries in how many people have been – or ever will be – conclusively tested for the virus. So there’s a high degree of subjectivity involved in extrapolating from the numbers in other countries to determine probable case and mortality numbers in the U.S. by a certain time.
So them’s are my assumptions – for this particular bet – and I hope for our sake that I’m right, which very, very much remains to be seen. ‘Cause this “ain’t just like the annual flu” in my opinion. In all events, the bet’s a free roll, lol.
The Red Cross will do for my charity.
45 million cases
842,000 deaths
45 million cases
842,000 deaths
Shit, it's over already?First cut at scoring, please check for correctness. I'm using the Johns Hopkins stat map:
View attachment 7460427
Kudlow Says Trump Wants Economy Open But Won’t Ignore Doctors
corona will be the 51st state
Looks like Dell Dude (55,555/777) at least may be fairly close to the then-mortality number as of when the total US cases hit 55,000 (yes, this is kind of ghoulish, macabre or whatever . . . .)
UNITED STATES
52,878 CONFIRMED CASES
684 DEATHS
(copied from lvrj.com's coronavirus update page, at 1:38 PT)
So this means if the doctors tell him not to re-open businesses he won't? I certainly hope so, but I highly doubt it, time will tell
we'll pass them this weekend.Moment of truth. Will the United States Paul Pierce 100,000? I still say no. I still say we are close to the top. Look at China. Look at Italy. China stopped short. Italy leveling.
With all the bars, restaurants, casino's, etc shut down nationwide, in most states with modest case numbers, they might come under control in the next few weeks. NY wont, it'll be rather enjoyable watching them suffer.Lock and quarantine the Rotten Apple. Wait until the chink virus goes to final time and we have a new red state.