14 million cases, 1.2 million deaths
Too many Americans not taking Corona serious. Spanish Flu killed 650000 Americans
Sorry to say, 100,000,000 cases and 1,200,000 deaths. Charity is St. Judes..
I want to be high on the cases and relatively low on the deaths.
1,000,000 cases
5,000 deaths
5 million cases, 350,000 deaths.
Charity: the Harry Tompson center in New Orleans.
Valid entries so far:
EJD 550,000/7,500
Squarepants 90,000/2,500
FairWarning: 350,000/27,000
ViejoDinosaur: 500,000/5,500
puckhandler: 14,000,000/1,200,000
Sleepy: 300,000/3,200
Railbird: 106,235/1,284
ZzyzxRoad: 5,000,000/350,000
OLDSANDBAGGER: 100,000,000/1,200,000
Jb777: 6,000,000/120,000
John Kelly: 1,000,000/5,000
Harry Tompson Center
c/o Immaculate Conception Church
130 Baronne Street
New Orleans, LA 70112
The Harry Tompson Center is a non-profit 501(c)(3) organization, which means all donations you make to help us serve the homeless community of New Orleans are tax deductible. Our tax identification number is # 20-1548026
We'll beat both those numbers by april 4106,235/ 1,284
Italy is a chain smoking high density shit hole with poor health careitaly hit a new high today 475 deaths in 24 hours - we'll beat that my several multiples in 3 weeks or so.
It's all math.
I'm imposing an entry deadline of Wednesday, March 19 at 11:59 PM U.S. Central Daylight Time. That way no one can sandbag this with a last-second guess.
What was wrong with my entry?Valid entries so far:
EJD 550,000/7,500
Squarepants 90,000/2,500
FairWarning: 350,000/27,000
ViejoDinosaur: 500,000/5,500
puckhandler: 14,000,000/1,200,000
Sleepy: 300,000/3,200
Railbird: 106,235/1,284
ZzyzxRoad: 5,000,000/350,000
OLDSANDBAGGER: 100,000,000/1,200,000
Jb777: 6,000,000/120,000
John Kelly: 1,000,000/5,000
Dell Dude: 55,555/777
BigDeemer: 240,000/9,900
ERBtheGREAT: 24,000,000/480,000
Valuist: 5,000,000/50,000
RULES:
Grading formula is (difference between prediction and actual number of cases) + (difference between prediction and actual number of deaths x 25))
As an example, let's say you predict 1,000,000 cases and 10,000 deaths,
Actual number comes in at 1,150,000 cases and 12,000 deaths.
Your score would be 150,000 + (2,000 x 25) for a total final score of 200,000.
If ComptrBob is willing, I will have him verify all results.
This will have grading issues.
The cases will never be known because 90% of the people that get infected will never be tested.
But my offical prediction will be 6,300,000(confirmed cases) 770,000 deaths.
I'll be glad to do the grading, however I think I need to clarify/modify the formula given by ELD.
Restatement 1, add paren after deaths: Grading formula is (difference between prediction and actual number of cases) + (difference between prediction and actual number of deaths) x 25
First, his example, the score is 1000000 -1150000 + (10000 -12000) x 25 = -200,000.
Restatement 2, use absolute value of the differences so score is always non-negative: Grading formula thus is abs(difference between prediction and actual number of cases) + abs(difference between prediction and actual number of deaths) x 25
Deadline is Thursday 11:59PM CT, thus 9:59PM PT tonight, 12:59AM ET, Friday morning.
Will look for EJD's concurrence.
I like Delldude prediction the best
I want to be high on the cases and relatively low on the deaths.
1,000,000 cases
5,000 deaths