Re: Pats at -210
It seems like money is no object for you and you want the prestige of holding an AFC Championship ticket. Read M Mike's post. Its ok to lay 210 only if its much better value than you would get if you bet both games individually. You want the flexibility.
Also, you don't want to be obligated to have to endorse New England in the Championship game if you don't like what you see in the game before that. Pats can win unimpressively and then you might not want to be holding a ticket on them. I've learned that betting a game at a time is the way to go..
Funny, you trying to teach me a lesson here? Whatever. There is nothing I would see in one game that would change my mind short of a bunch of injuries. Suckers change their opinions of teams at this time of year, certainly not sharps. There is absolutely nothing to learn right now that you could not have learned in the 16 weeks about any team.
I will add in the fact that this team finds ways to win as a factor of its makeup and players makes it even better. I don't know if I want to lay big numbers on them, but I am fairly confident as an educated observer it will be awfully tough to knock them off at this point. People are making mistakes thinking later season games against teams who wanted to make their season by knocking these guys off was truly indicative of talent. Every time this team felt it was challenged and needed to respond it did. Every situation they needed to come through, against great teams and not so great teams they found a way.
Here is the math though since I do know a thing or two about betting into money lines. I will assume 11.5 for game one, which converts at fair value to -650 or so, or -800/+550 with vig for an estimate. Considering it is playoffs I will lower that a bit as the books will take on more NE money against the spread and more dog on the ML. So lets say I would have to lay -600. Then I will be generous and say -9 for the AFC Championship, even though I think a very good case to state the number could come in easily at -11 or more. At -9 the fair price is around -400, lets say -450/+380 with vig. Once again doing a little reduction I figure -400.
At -600 my 210 would win me $35. I would bet $245 at -400, which wins me $61. So I make $96 instead of $100 at these numbers, meaning -210 offers some value even with me being generous. Put simply though if both games come in at double digits, and I think there is a good probability of it, then -210 offers good value. Adding in my handicapping assessment and this bet looks even better. I am just looking for a -200 or better number and I will hit it.