Forty years and counting.
I've been viewing sports from a betting perspective for a long time.
Serious sports bettors digest games differently than everyone else in the sports ecosystem.
We don't simply watch a three-hour sporting event for the drama, suspense or intrigue.
Nor do we watch for the plot, the plot twists or the ultimate conclusion, though admittedly the final score is the only means by which full-game wagers are settled.
Instead, sharp observers focus on events that could have transpired, but did not transpire for one reason or another.
Events that numerical analysts often fail to consider.
An ignored wide receiver running scotfree in the end zone; an uncontested three-point shot from just above the top of the key that taps the inside of the front rim, ricochets off the horn of the rim and pops out; a surefire double-play grounder in which the shortstop or second basemen fails to "turn two."
The above scenarios are not recorded in any box score.
Analytics are a marvelous tool, but they measure only what takes place on the field.
Advanced metrics rarely account for the range of possible outcomes in the shadow game, or parallel dimension.
Additionally, intangible factors like a team's smarts, a player's competitive fire (or lack thereof) and a squad's communication skills are difficult to qualify and impossible to quantify.
Do you want to support a baseball team whose superstars are not running full-speed to first base or not going all-out to chase an errant throw?
How about a basketball team not interested in sprinting downcourt after a missed field-goal attempt?
Or a defensive football team that habitually fails to contain the outside edge?
Sports bettors downgrade athletes who repeat inexcusable mistakes and look to support coaches and players who adopt a more clinical approach.
Coaching staffs must be held accountable.
Fade the leaders of a team who are not citing a player's poor efforts, allowing their misguided athlete to commit senseless errors.
WHO'S ON SECOND?.....Strategic creativity has come a long way in a short time in Major League Baseball.
Did you see the intentional balk by Chicago White Sox pitcher Dylan Cease last week?
Cease dropped the ball on purpose while in contact with the rubber, an obvious violation for all to see.
Why?
Alex Bregman of the Houston Astros was perched on second base with two outs in the top of the fifth inning and Cease did not want to give Bregman a clear view of his pitching grip or unfettered access to catcher Yasmani Grandal's signs as Houston's Kyle Tucker stepped to the plate.
Cease had to calculate the risks and rewards of giving Bregman a free base in that situation.
After the game, Cease defended his move by saying, "That's baseball in 2022."
MORE ADVANCED STRATEGY.....Cease is not the only one thinking about strategy.
Sports bettors are always trying to stay one step ahead of the bookmakers and two steps ahead of their fellow sharps.
With that idea serving as a predicate, I offer three strategic suggestions to sports teams willing to take a chance with an unconventional approach.
Here we go:
1) BASEBALL IDEA - The five-infielder defense has been around a long time.
However, teams only employ the strategy in desperate situations.
Here's the right time to move an outfielder to a position behind second base: Tie game in the late innings with a runner on second and two outs.
The pitcher can now hold the runner close to second as the additional infielder is positioned at the second-base bag before retreating to short centerfield on the pitcher's delivery.
All other infielders are instructed to play four or five steps deeper than normal to protect against a seeing-eye single.
The infielders also would be positioned to catch any bloop hits that usually fall safely with normal defensive positioning.
Feel free to walk a dangerous hitter in this situation to set up a force at any bag.
The idea is to force the offensive team to record two hits to score the go-ahead run, instead of a cheap two-out RBI single that so often happens in the late innings of a tie game.
2) BASKETBALL IDEA - "The Bomb Squad."
Every college hoop team -- and all NBA teams, for that matter -- is allowed 15 players on its roster.
Players 11 through 15 would comprise my "Bomb Squad."
Players exclusively recruited to shoot the three-point shot.
Big guys, small guys, average-sized guys, it doesn't matter as long as they can shoot from distance.
My "Bomb Squad" would play no more than 10 minutes per game.
The first four minutes of the game when their legs are fresh and the first four minutes of the second half for the same reason.
Also, the last two minutes of a game could be an ideal time for the "Bomb Squad," in order to protect a three-possession lead or storm from behind when trailing by double-digits.
3) FOOTBALL IDEA - Crafty quarterback Russell Wilson is leading his new team downfield.
The Broncos cross into enemy territory.
It's first down and 10 yards to go.
On a play-action pass, all receivers are covered.
Wilson takes off from the pocket and soon thereafter quickly angles toward the sidelines.
At this point, Wilson will either race to the sideline to avoid getting hit or extend the ball forward, as the wily Wilson so often does, and sometimes pick up first-down yardage.
Here's my suggestion to all quarterbacks, running backs and receivers when racing toward the first-down marker on a first-down play: Don't gain 10.5 yards, instead gain 9.5 yards.
I salivate when my football team is calling a play on second-and-one in enemy territory.
The play-calling options are endless and the results are often fruitful.
I've been viewing sports from a betting perspective for a long time.
Serious sports bettors digest games differently than everyone else in the sports ecosystem.
We don't simply watch a three-hour sporting event for the drama, suspense or intrigue.
Nor do we watch for the plot, the plot twists or the ultimate conclusion, though admittedly the final score is the only means by which full-game wagers are settled.
Instead, sharp observers focus on events that could have transpired, but did not transpire for one reason or another.
Events that numerical analysts often fail to consider.
An ignored wide receiver running scotfree in the end zone; an uncontested three-point shot from just above the top of the key that taps the inside of the front rim, ricochets off the horn of the rim and pops out; a surefire double-play grounder in which the shortstop or second basemen fails to "turn two."
The above scenarios are not recorded in any box score.
Analytics are a marvelous tool, but they measure only what takes place on the field.
Advanced metrics rarely account for the range of possible outcomes in the shadow game, or parallel dimension.
Additionally, intangible factors like a team's smarts, a player's competitive fire (or lack thereof) and a squad's communication skills are difficult to qualify and impossible to quantify.
Do you want to support a baseball team whose superstars are not running full-speed to first base or not going all-out to chase an errant throw?
How about a basketball team not interested in sprinting downcourt after a missed field-goal attempt?
Or a defensive football team that habitually fails to contain the outside edge?
Sports bettors downgrade athletes who repeat inexcusable mistakes and look to support coaches and players who adopt a more clinical approach.
Coaching staffs must be held accountable.
Fade the leaders of a team who are not citing a player's poor efforts, allowing their misguided athlete to commit senseless errors.
WHO'S ON SECOND?.....Strategic creativity has come a long way in a short time in Major League Baseball.
Did you see the intentional balk by Chicago White Sox pitcher Dylan Cease last week?
Cease dropped the ball on purpose while in contact with the rubber, an obvious violation for all to see.
Why?
Alex Bregman of the Houston Astros was perched on second base with two outs in the top of the fifth inning and Cease did not want to give Bregman a clear view of his pitching grip or unfettered access to catcher Yasmani Grandal's signs as Houston's Kyle Tucker stepped to the plate.
Cease had to calculate the risks and rewards of giving Bregman a free base in that situation.
After the game, Cease defended his move by saying, "That's baseball in 2022."
MORE ADVANCED STRATEGY.....Cease is not the only one thinking about strategy.
Sports bettors are always trying to stay one step ahead of the bookmakers and two steps ahead of their fellow sharps.
With that idea serving as a predicate, I offer three strategic suggestions to sports teams willing to take a chance with an unconventional approach.
Here we go:
1) BASEBALL IDEA - The five-infielder defense has been around a long time.
However, teams only employ the strategy in desperate situations.
Here's the right time to move an outfielder to a position behind second base: Tie game in the late innings with a runner on second and two outs.
The pitcher can now hold the runner close to second as the additional infielder is positioned at the second-base bag before retreating to short centerfield on the pitcher's delivery.
All other infielders are instructed to play four or five steps deeper than normal to protect against a seeing-eye single.
The infielders also would be positioned to catch any bloop hits that usually fall safely with normal defensive positioning.
Feel free to walk a dangerous hitter in this situation to set up a force at any bag.
The idea is to force the offensive team to record two hits to score the go-ahead run, instead of a cheap two-out RBI single that so often happens in the late innings of a tie game.
2) BASKETBALL IDEA - "The Bomb Squad."
Every college hoop team -- and all NBA teams, for that matter -- is allowed 15 players on its roster.
Players 11 through 15 would comprise my "Bomb Squad."
Players exclusively recruited to shoot the three-point shot.
Big guys, small guys, average-sized guys, it doesn't matter as long as they can shoot from distance.
My "Bomb Squad" would play no more than 10 minutes per game.
The first four minutes of the game when their legs are fresh and the first four minutes of the second half for the same reason.
Also, the last two minutes of a game could be an ideal time for the "Bomb Squad," in order to protect a three-possession lead or storm from behind when trailing by double-digits.
3) FOOTBALL IDEA - Crafty quarterback Russell Wilson is leading his new team downfield.
The Broncos cross into enemy territory.
It's first down and 10 yards to go.
On a play-action pass, all receivers are covered.
Wilson takes off from the pocket and soon thereafter quickly angles toward the sidelines.
At this point, Wilson will either race to the sideline to avoid getting hit or extend the ball forward, as the wily Wilson so often does, and sometimes pick up first-down yardage.
Here's my suggestion to all quarterbacks, running backs and receivers when racing toward the first-down marker on a first-down play: Don't gain 10.5 yards, instead gain 9.5 yards.
I salivate when my football team is calling a play on second-and-one in enemy territory.
The play-calling options are endless and the results are often fruitful.
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