Looks like another $2,000,000+ overlay with Circa Million IV and Survivor contests 2022-2023
- Thread starter Woodrow Wilson
- Start date
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
16 are playing with fire choosing Wash. Division games are a sweat.
Circa Survivor Week 15 going into MNF: Survive: 10 (Chiefs, Saints, Browns, Vikings), Eliminated: 16 (Commanders) (53.33%), 4 pending (Packers 4), no ticket: 0.
Equity: $438,071.43
No Picks left for Week 16:
Eagles, Cowboys, Packers, 49ers, Bills, Chiefs, Ravens.
Equity: $438,071.43
No Picks left for Week 16:
Eagles, Cowboys, Packers, 49ers, Bills, Chiefs, Ravens.
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Circa Million Week 15, Final:
Place Capper Score
1 KING BRUTUS-1 53.5
2 Enut34-1 52.0
2 SEAN 1923-2 52.0
2 Look Ma No Hands-1 52.0
5 504-1 51.5
6 CHIEF-3 51.0
7 TAIL PARTY-2 50.5
7 PEPPERMILLKIDS-1 50.5
9 Lou Legend-1 50.0
9 ARGENT FARMS-2 50.0
9 UNDISPUTED23-1 50.0
9 PRETTYPRETTYGOOD-1 50.0
9 S W A G-1 50.0
9 TRKlomp-1 50.0
Place Capper Score
1 KING BRUTUS-1 53.5
2 Enut34-1 52.0
2 SEAN 1923-2 52.0
2 Look Ma No Hands-1 52.0
5 504-1 51.5
6 CHIEF-3 51.0
7 TAIL PARTY-2 50.5
7 PEPPERMILLKIDS-1 50.5
9 Lou Legend-1 50.0
9 ARGENT FARMS-2 50.0
9 UNDISPUTED23-1 50.0
9 PRETTYPRETTYGOOD-1 50.0
9 S W A G-1 50.0
9 TRKlomp-1 50.0
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winkyduck
TYVM Morgan William!!!
I know you are aware of it but this week is actually 2 "weeks": The Saturday games and then Xmas Games requiring all surviving entrants to pick a game on Xmas or the MNF game - meaning: GB @ Miami (Only Miami can be chosen since no one has GB although I doubt anyone would take GB if they had them left), Denver @ Rams (Good luck there), Tampa @ Arizona (Big question here: WHO is QB for AZ - if McCoy stay away but it McSorley Tampa merits a look but entrants might not know before picks are due) or MNF of San Diego Chargers @ Colts (Chargers are the pick here but how many have San Diego left?).........looking at Availability from Week 14 very few will have Miami left meaning most will be forced to take San Diego and maybe that is good.................you will know before kickoff how many advanced/eliminated so you can hedge some if you so desire.
Gonna be very interesting this coming week knowing it is actually 2 of them.
Week16a, entrant "JED-4" has used the Titans, Bengals, Viks and Browns and so will probably go with the Steelers or Lions.
Five others have used the 3 and are left with the Titans, Lions, & Steelers. It will be interesting to see if they go with the Titans.
Entrants essentially have a 4 team (subject to availability and fewer if all crap out) ML, ties lose, parlay to cash.
Five others have used the 3 and are left with the Titans, Lions, & Steelers. It will be interesting to see if they go with the Titans.
Entrants essentially have a 4 team (subject to availability and fewer if all crap out) ML, ties lose, parlay to cash.
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Update: Circa Survivor, Week 16a (Thurs/Sat), the largest current Circa ML games & picks left (Edit lines: Fri Evening):
Titans -170 13
Vikings -200 2
Bengals -165 2 (likely to not be used, to be eligible for the 20-0 "Undefeated Bonus Prize")
Lions -145 14
Browns -159 6
Steelers -127 14
My Projected Guess: Titans 10, Viks 2, Lions 1, Browns 1. Some Titans may move to Lions and Browns. Lions likely to be large favs in Week 17 & 18.
Titans -170 13
Vikings -200 2
Bengals -165 2 (likely to not be used, to be eligible for the 20-0 "Undefeated Bonus Prize")
Lions -145 14
Browns -159 6
Steelers -127 14
My Projected Guess: Titans 10, Viks 2, Lions 1, Browns 1. Some Titans may move to Lions and Browns. Lions likely to be large favs in Week 17 & 18.
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pro analyser
EOG Dedicated
Tannehill out for season,team lost 4 in a row, line at 3 at circa against the worst team in football.(although last two gms played Dallas and KC tough) Scary play. I'm on Giants first half after a tough overtime game that went late into overtime. Giants need the game more. Two tough games for alot=hedge. Technically could win both + the pts.
Yep, the Titans line dropped from -7 to -5 yesterday and -3 today. ML down to -170. We'll see how many chose not to go with the Titans.
Survivor probability to go 20-0, based on the best 4 picks available to each (MLs converted to implied odds & small "ties lose" reduces probability to advance):
Name Odds
Bull Hill-1 21.4%
BROWNA-1 19.6%
SALTY K-5 19.6%
JED-4 19.3%
Maddog-2 19.1%
HOWARD HAMLIN-1 16.7%
Chip Chair-6 16.4%
Bryan Truth-1 16.3%
REDGUN-1 16.0%
WOODY-2 15.7%
THE ENEMY WITHIN-2 14.8%
Lord Smith-5 13.9%
Presence-4 13.9%
THE ENEMY WITHIN-1 13.9%
Name Odds
Bull Hill-1 21.4%
BROWNA-1 19.6%
SALTY K-5 19.6%
JED-4 19.3%
Maddog-2 19.1%
HOWARD HAMLIN-1 16.7%
Chip Chair-6 16.4%
Bryan Truth-1 16.3%
REDGUN-1 16.0%
WOODY-2 15.7%
THE ENEMY WITHIN-2 14.8%
Lord Smith-5 13.9%
Presence-4 13.9%
THE ENEMY WITHIN-1 13.9%
Murphy’s Best
EOG Dedicated
Good stuff CB!
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
I like Minn the best out of that group. Very tough week with the weather.
Circa Millions deadline is still 4:00pm PT Sat which is after the eight 10am and two 1pm games., leaving only 5 games. It will be interesting to see how many are stuck with just picks in those games. BTW, I'm tied for 277th place at 42-28-5, hoping for a big upwards move.
mrbowling300
EOG Dedicated
If you were still alive how the hell could you watch any of these games. A blood bath. Lots of Christmas's ruined. Hope these people on Detroit and Tenn hedged.
Week 16a Survivor, going to Sat NF: 1 Survive (Viks), 10 Eliminated (Jets, Lions, Browns, Titans), 3 (Steelers) pending.
Somewhat ironic that the two who "saved" the Bengals, both lost with the Lions. How'd you like to sweat the Steelers?
Equity: $1,533,250.00
Four left:
BROWNA-1
JED-4
THE ENEMY WITHIN-2
Maddog-2 (Advanced with Viks)
Somewhat ironic that the two who "saved" the Bengals, both lost with the Lions. How'd you like to sweat the Steelers?
Equity: $1,533,250.00
Four left:
BROWNA-1
JED-4
THE ENEMY WITHIN-2
Maddog-2 (Advanced with Viks)
winkyduck
TYVM Morgan William!!!
This could be OVER tonite if Raiders win! Seriously!
Woodrow Wilson
EOG Dedicated
There's dumb and higher level dumb. Not hedging today would epitomize the latter and beyond.
mrbowling300
EOG Dedicated
Unreal, it goes on! When will they announce 16b?
winkyduck
TYVM Morgan William!!!
Entries due by Midnight (Pacific Time) meaning less than 4 hours from now. It would be a crying shame if someone fails to get their entry in.
ANYONE with Tampa left has to take them. If "Marty" McSorley of the Cards beats me - so be it.
Chargers would be a great pick because now I know who did - and did not - advance heading into the game.
mrbowling300
EOG Dedicated
Let's hope the Minny guy bet the house max on Pitt -130
Hilarious. The Week16b selection starts at midnight, the deadline is 9:00AM on Sunday.
- The Contest Week’s selection window following Thursday December 22, 2022 and Saturday December 24, 2022 games will begin at 12:00 AM on Sunday, December 25, 2022. That Contest Week’s selection deadline is 9:00 AM on Sunday, December 25, 2022.
winkyduck
TYVM Morgan William!!!
Gonna slightly disagree:
Seeing who all have left: https://www.circasports.com/wp-cont...-Survivor-2022-Week-16b-Team-Availability.pdf
**Browna/Jed ..........100% certain will be on Tampa Bay.
**Enemy Within.............100% certain will be on Chargers seeing who he (does/does not) have left (He does NOT have Miami left).
**Maddog........Has to pick Miami or Chargers. Knowing he knows who other 3 have to pick I'll say he goes with......Miami
Yeah, missed previous use of Dolphins for "The Enemy Within".
mrbowling300
EOG Dedicated
They just announced, 2 on Tampa Bay, 1 on Miami and 1 on LA Chargers. The guy who had minny last night is on Miami.
mrbowling300
EOG Dedicated
Basically what Winky predicted is what came true
winkyduck
TYVM Morgan William!!!
Wasn't that hard. Looking at who each had left it was pretty easy.
Maddog was the only wild card - he coulda gone with Miami or San Diego Chargers. He was less than 60 seconds away from winning OVER $6M
......................and now he is less than 12 minutes way FROM BEING ELIMINATED!
Murphy’s Best
EOG Dedicated
Terrible
mrbowling300
EOG Dedicated
The emotional trauma Maddog went through the past 24 hrs has got to be indescribable
winkyduck
TYVM Morgan William!!!
BINGO!
Less than a minute away from winning OVER $6M................
...........now - unless he hedged (I sense he did) He gets NOTHING..............unless the other 3 lose
mrbowling300
EOG Dedicated
They said Maddog is from Texas so hopefully he had an out to hedge. May have had to go to Miss to place his hedge.
mrbowling300
EOG Dedicated
After going through the emotional trauma of the Pittsburgh game, how the heck could you survive the Tampa Bay game?
What a emotional roller coaster the past 24 hours were for those two.
Of course, it is nothing compared to what Maddog must have felt during his past 24 hours. He was 46 seconds from winning $6.133M to being eliminated. I don't care if you hedged and got some money back, it wasn't replacing the life changing $6.133M that was just in your reach.
This contest can be such a mind f*ck, but this is the risk you assume if you choose to play.
What a emotional roller coaster the past 24 hours were for those two.
Of course, it is nothing compared to what Maddog must have felt during his past 24 hours. He was 46 seconds from winning $6.133M to being eliminated. I don't care if you hedged and got some money back, it wasn't replacing the life changing $6.133M that was just in your reach.
This contest can be such a mind f*ck, but this is the risk you assume if you choose to play.
railbird
EOG Master
i had my eye on 1st qtr at 14-0. finish 17-2-1 got nothing, 17-2-1 gets 1st place in 3rd qtr
railbird
EOG Master
INTERESTING STORY OF PROXY FALLING ASLEEP IN WEEK 16
Murphy’s Best
EOG Dedicated
Wow… I would have been a mad mofo losing 3 entries like that! Glad it worked out for them.