INJURY UPDATE Not Out On Don Best Yet...

[MLM]

One question. What Do you guys mean when you say there is X amount of money available on a certain number? Does Mansion show what their threshold is for moving a line or something?
If so that is sort of wierd I must say.

Mansion is an exchange; it tells you how much money is on a team at a certain number. A bettor can 'make the market' by offering NE +3 -115 for $120. If another bettor likes Atl -3 at that price, he'll match the offer up to $120. The commission is taken from the winner.

In this case, there was over $70K on Atl -3.

 

[wantitall4moi]

Ahh, thats why I didn't see it.


Basically they are a brokerage house. Scarey.

 

[THE SHRINK]

I am GLAD the FINAL score worked out alright for those who jumped and reacted on this news...

The FALCONS did fight hard though...

THE SHRINK

 

[wantitall4moi]

Everyone made money that game except books :+signs9-1

 

[dirty]

And Realistically Could have won with the Phantom Out of Bounds on Schaub and then Rossums's Stupid Interference Call with a couple of Minutes left...


Nonetheless Good Call. That is just the NFL for ya....Great game to watch

 

[shoebox]

Good Job Shrink, 1st again with the info, a 6pt nfl move in 16 hrs just isnt enough to impress a certain poster, LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I wonder how u get this info ahead of everyone else:smokesmal

 

[wantitall4moi]

I am not going to come in here and sound like an asshole. But what difference did it really make in the game?


Obviousy some guys got middle shots and scalp shots. But in terms of the line even being a factor...it wasn't. Before the move, or after.

It wasn't even like that info was all that informational. It was in a newspaper. The game was OTB at half the places, and within 5 minutes of this post is was OTB at all the others. Except for Pinnacle. Where it moved to 1 point. And Mansion exchange or whatever it is.

The PUBLIC crushed that line, only after the news was official. It didn't move at Pinny for hours. Basically because it wasn't exactly official. When it DID become official THEN the money came flooding in.



If someone came in with a newspaper clipping that said McNabb was going to be downgraded to doubtful this Saturday for Sunday's game, and the line did the same thing would people still be impressed?

Not likely. Stuff like that happens all the time. I remember about 10 years ago Harbaugh was "downgraded" when he was playing for the Colts. The line moved from +2.5 to +7 against the Raiders, well Harbaugh played and Indy won SU.

Obviously when "star" players are involved their is a run. But this was over hype and craziness that did that to that line. If Atlanta plays ANY defense they win that game easilly, with or without Vick. But that is the NFL, strange things happen.

I basically tell people the fix is in on UCLA a couple weeks ago,and 10 people read the thread. But Shrink comes in with a newspaper clipping and people bet the game fast enough and can't kiss his ass when the game comes in as one would expect.

But its all good.

As long as everyone wins I guess.


If anyone reads this whole thread and the time stamps it doesn't take a genious to figure out the timing of it all.

 

[Sam Odom]

I basically tell people the fix is in on UCLA a couple weeks ago,and 10 people read the thread. But Shrink comes in with a newspaper clipping and people bet the game fast enough and can't kiss his ass when the game comes in as one would expect.

:+crying-5

 

[Cobbler]

Shrink's info from the paper told us the money was going to go on New England. Some people were able to get ahead of the steam, and get a good number or an easy scalp out of it if they chose. Why do you dismiss that so casually Want? I've read your reasoning a few times, and still don't understand why you seem so upset about it.

 

[wantitall4moi]

I am not upset.


Just pointing out that guys that bet NE +3 before the move, didn't make anymore money than the guys who bet NE -2.5 the next day 30 seconds before kick off. So beating the steam meant absolutely nothing. Period end of sentance.

The guys that madeout were guys that hadn't taken the +138 or so that was available for 3-4 days, who happened to get +130ML, then bought back the other way for +120/125. Best I saw at Pinny was 115. They had their risk free money.

I see what people are trying to say. But if you saw Vick carted off the field last week, and were reading anything, it didn't take a leap of faith to figure he wouldn't start. Even when they upgraded him the line didn't move. The line didn't even really move WHEN this was offered. As I said, Pinnacle went from -2.5 to -1.5, then when I got up it was still -1, 12 hours after this. Read my posts and when they were time stamped.

Then around 8:30 or so Pacific time the word was official, then all hell broke loose. Then Pinny jumped right to +2.5. But they NEVER got to +3. They basically offered dead numbers on that game all week. They went from Atl -2.5 to NE -2.5 No 3's anywhere at any time. Some places did on NE, I guess, but even then they had some prettyy good sized holds attached. But as it turned out it didn't matter.

 

[xpanda]

As true as everything you write turned out to be, wantit, you have to admit that the feeling of having +3 when the lines closes at -2.5 is half the fun for many of us.
Sometimes those few points don't matter but other times they are the difference between a losing ticket and a winning one. It is always prudent to grab the advantage if you can. For any bettor already considering NE, grabbing them the second Ken posted this thread gave them an advantage they wouldn't have had an hour later. And that's the whole point, isn't it?

 

[wantitall4moi]

Yes, always good to have the insurance, good feeling number, but more often than not it doesn't matter.


Maybe that is me. I try my best not to let the emotional side of the game or worrying about getting the absolutely best line ever.

I mentioned that in my UCLA post. I took them Last Monday at -2, was I sad, no? I just wished I had them on the ML but that is just one of the chances you take. I stil cashed. it cost me about $400 or so. Which isn't chump change when you are a grinder. But I still won.

Just like when I bet NE on the ML. I didn't think NE would win the game. I didn't think they would win even with Vick OUT. But I bet them anyways, because I thought the line would move somewhat, and give me the value play. Obviously that injury and news made it move alot more. But I planned on the buy back from the start. I posted on Wed I think. So it isn't like I am making stuff up or trying to say it wasn't a valid point.

Just that it didn't have a lot to do with the outcome.

Me being me I probably don't come accross the right way in words all the time. Everyone won on that one, or they should have. But I don't think they won any more or any less because of the post, unless they specifically bet it to buy back, and totally followed blindly. Which is something people have to be very careful of.

 

[shoebox]

It didnt matter in that game, but it matters in the long haul, just look at last nights PITT-SD game, it landed 1, or how about the people that laid -3 on NE near post, u think it mattered to them???? The market is pretty funny for sports, its driven by Don Best, thaqt info was out there, but it DOESNT MOVE THE BOOKS TILL DON BEST REPORTS IT. Its not squares or suckers that drive that up, once DBEST Urgent comes out, thats when the line really flies. If you are ahead of Don best, you are a winner, its that simple!