INJURY UPDATE Not Out On Don Best Yet...

According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the decision to downgrade Vick was made after Saturday's walk through. Vick missed practice all week and only took part in limited drills on Friday. <!-- (8:07:02 PM)-->Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Vick has been downgraded from probable to questionable for Sunday's game against the New England Patriots due to his sprained right knee.

THE SHRINK
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
best I could find was to just lbet the
NE +130 money line at the greek. not the +3 -140 and not the + 2 1/2 -115 either. lets see see see
 

MLM

EOG Member
trytrytry said:
best I could find was to just lbet the
NE +130 money line at the greek. not the +3 -140 and not the + 2 1/2 -115 either. lets see see see

Mansion has it at NE +3 -115...better jump on it.
 

dirty

EOG Master
<!--StartFragment --> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width=760 border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD align=left width=760>Vick listed as questionable

By STEVE WYCHE
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 10/08/05 A day before their showdown with the defending Super Bowl champs, the Falcons downgraded quarterback Michael Vick's playing status from probable to questionable, an ominous move that strongly suggests Vick won't play Sunday against New England.

The announcement came after the team's Saturday morning walkthrough. Vick suffered a sprained medial collateral ligament in his right knee in last week's 30-10 victory over Minnesota and did not practice until Friday, when he only took part in limited drills.

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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD width=5> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!--startclickprintinclude--><!--begintext-->Second-year quarterback Matt Schaub, who took almost every snap with the first- and second-team offense this week at practice and who relieved Vick in the final 2 1/2 quarters of last week's game at Minnesota, would start for the 3-1 Falcons at the Georgia Dome if Vick does not play.

Coach Jim Mora, who was not available for comment Saturday, said Friday that Vick's health was improving but that his status would not be determined until game day. However, the team's decision to downgrade Vick to questionable after a week's worth of rest and rehabilitation indicates that team officials feel he might not ready.

Vick said he would play only if he felt he could contribute and not be a hindrance.

The decision to switch Vick's status could be a ploy; gamesmanship by coaches in how players are listed on injury reports are commonplace in order to throw off opponents' preparation. However, the NFL frowns on such deceptive tactics and could fine a team if it determines intentional disregard for fair play.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick said earlier this week that the team was preparing for Vick.

Falcons players and coaches said the team's NFL-best rushing game should be good enough to carry the offense and ease pressure off Schaub, who lost his only start at New Orleans late last season. Players have expressed confidence in Schaub and claim that as good as Vick is, they're balanced enough to win without him.





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trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
GreenDoberman said:
Falcs will be pounding it all day with Dunn and Duckett against a suspect Pats run D.

agree, I just pounded those types of props at the GREEK have a look.
 

Betmonkey

EOG Veteran
SEA...missing their top 2 WR's also....Jackson and Engram will both be out Sunday....along with Issac Bruce again.


GL to all
 

BEANTOWNJIM

Banned
THIS INFORMATION HAS (SUCKER) WRITTEN ALL OVER IT.MAYBE ATLANTA WILL BE BETTER OFF WITHOUT MICHELLE VICK HE IS A TERRIBLE PASSER ANYWAY.BE CAREFULL HERE BOYS DONT GO RUNNING JUST YET.I LOVE MY PATRIOTS BUT FOR SOME REASON I DONT LIKE THEM AS MUCH PLAYING IN DOMES.

NOT THAT IT MATTERS TO ME BUT IS ATLANTAS BACK UP QUARTERBACK A WHITE GUY I SURE HOPE SO BECAUSE I LIKE THE FALCONS:+thumbs-2
 

BEANTOWNJIM

Banned
GREEN DOBERMAN SINCE WHEN IS ASKING IF A QUARTERBACK IS BLACK OR WHITE RACIST ARE YOU SOME KIND OF NUT WHO YELLS RACISM EVERYTIME SOMEBODY AXES A QUESTION.SHRINK WHY IS IT EVERYTIME I AX A QUESTION THIS WHACK JOB COMES RUNNING INTO THE THREAD WITH RACIST ACCUSATIONS I AM SICK AND TIRED OF THIS GUY DOBERMAN CALLING ME A RACIST.


(BEANTOWNJIM IS NOT A RACIST,HE IS A REALIST)
 

Santo

EOG Veteran
+123 at Matchbook seems out of line with Pinny at +118/-126, should be able to get out on the site later today for a in-exchange scalp (benefit of only paying comission on winnings too!)
 
MANSION had the game at ATLANTA minus 3 when I started this thread!!!

NEW ENGLAND is now minus 1 at ASAP...
The line is down to PICK IT now at OLYMPIC & JAZZ...:cheers

Best of Luck,

THE SHRINK
 
If you ask me, it really means nothing. The line was painted 2.5 at Pin all week, now it is -1. Basically all that "info" does is get you a dead number with if you like NE.

It did however effect the ML slightly. But the highest I saw all week was +139. Is now around +108, at Pin, but when they upgraded Vick on Thursday to probable the line was +126 and dropping like a stone on NE, after they put it back up on the board.

Vick is overrated, and over hyped. Period end of sentance. His injury is barely worth the time to change a line it seems. Some books have taken it down, which does make sense.

But when the supposed most electric and exciting player isn't playing (which is a common occurance with this *****) they move the line 1.5 points.

NE STILL isn't favored here. I guess that blow out loss to SD last week, and the injuries they have suffered have finally sunk in.

At the very least if Vick was so great the line should be Atl +1/1.5, at least it is awould have been adecent sized move, and only still gives players a bunch of dead numbers to work with.

Vick blows and they have a better chance of winning without him anyways.
 

Cozen

EOG Enthusiast
wantitall4moi,

What the hell are you babbling about? 3 is not exactly a dead # in the NFL.

Good Luck To You
 

dirty

EOG Master
Just Talked to my Bud at the paper and he said the Call to downgrade Vick Came from None other than Rich Mckay Himself..He overuled Mora and neither one of them were too happy about it.


Seems like Mckays Reasoning was They have total confidence in Schaub and with this being a Nonconference game it was better to not take the chance of him missing Conference games in the upcoming weeks..


Still a chance he will play...said they will determine if he is around 12 noon EST.:+music1-6
 
Cozen, I never saw a 3 on that game at any book I play at. I also have to think that not a lot of people were betting this game Monday for $500 when it was circled. Most guys can't bet until the screen goes black at Donbest ,so I doubt they are making bets a week out, especially on a game with so many uncertainties, and is circled.


If anyone got on NE for more than 1000 at +3 I would like to hear about it, and at what book.

Even Pin had a limit on the game when I bet the ML on Tuesday.

Things are not always what they appear when you go and look at numbers and where they started and where they finished.
 
wantitall4moi,

Once again, you just don't get it do you?

There were plent7 of "outs" available for gamblers to take advantage of this information yesterday and if you read this thread carefully, you will notice that several people got plus 3. I also know it was available on the BUY at places for minus 20 juice since Atlanta was 2 1/2 lay 25 or so in spots all over the internet. Also, some of our posters have accounts at MANSION where it was 3 flat on the DON BEST screen when I started this thread...

Furthermore, there were PLUS $1.25's out there on the ML, so there is also a BIG SCALP avalable for those who prefer that over plus 1 and plus 3 Football Middles...

You are certainly stubborn, but I value posters like you...

I guess some are classified as Contrarian Football bettors, but you are a Contrarian Poster 4 sure...

:+signs8-1

Best of Luck today,

THE SHRINK
 
Last edited:

MLM

EOG Member
There was a ton of money still available at NE +3 last night at Mansion; if I recall correctly it was over $70,000 at -115.
 
My mistake, I don't have Mansion. What are their limits? How many guys actually got in at the 3? How long before they took it OTB? I noticed a lot of other places did, like Cascade, BoDog, SIA, Canbet, and a few others.


As for the ML I got +139 Tues. Maybe a lucky guess, maybe just luck. But I also mentioned that in my comments, as the thing that it really effected, and it had dropped from +126 ( I believe I quoted) .

I think it is a moot point anyways. Just like all the discussions about guys who got 7,8,9, and all the half point increments on TCU yesterday.

Only BEFORE the game does this stuff even matter. Most of the time, it is just wasted time. If this game does actually hit on 3, so what? You still going to push. Had you not bet NE +3, you could just as easilly bet Atl +1. But taking a flyer on NE +3 BECAUSE of the 3? Doesn't make sense.

That 3 on a "middle" isn't a middle it is a side. Unless you don't have an opinion on the game then you are better of not even betting it. Because what are going to gain other than a buy back or a middle shot? JUST betting a game BECAUSE of an injury is frankly stupid. No offense.

If you Like NE then sure bet the +3, with or without Vick, since it is more than likely going to move. But because Vick might or might not be playing isn't exactly a reason to get jacked up over a team that is completely dessimated by injuries. Especially if you couldn't get that mystical 3.

The only way it makes sense to me is if you got the 3, planning wholeheartedly on buying it back on the move. Unless of course youliked NE, then there wre 3's in alot of places all week long. Granted at -120/-125, but they were there.

Like I said, most guys are paralyzed and can't bet unless someone tells them something or points out something they might not know. That is why so many guys fail, one goes down, they all go down.

If that screen doesn't go black, then guys are lost. Especially in a week where there are so many numbers that scare people anyways.

How many guys had an intention of betting that game BEFORE this? How many bet it BECAUSE of this? IF it lands on Atl winnng by 3 how many guys who got in on NE +3, simply because they could, and did nothing else are going to benefit? How many guys bet +2.5 becuase of this? And what does that gain them? Especially if it is by some miracle Atl by 3?

I am not shooting the messenger, but when people get so caught up in a SINGLE game, and one that is still of questionable value, it epitomizes why people fail miserably betting the NFL.

Like I said, I bet the ML early, THAT is where the true value is/was. A +3 -115 dog should be at least +140, If the vig is adjusted they should be more. So even if guys got +125/+3 +100 they got raped on the ML. A +3 +100 dog Should be +150 or better on the ML. SO even then getting in at +125 is not all that great a value. Pin was +126 with a 2.5 spread.

I know I am not smart enough to discuss this stuff with you guys, I have only followed the spreads and moneylines for the past 15 years or so. So I don't know what the splits should or should not be, or where the books are cheating and where they aren't.

But this game held no value IMO at the spreads, and numbers you are quoting. Whether you are buyinh back or not.

The only people it "benefits" are the guys who actually have an opinion on a side and wanted to get the best number they could.
 
wantitall,

Since you just posted, MANSION NOW has the Patriots favored by 2 1/2 points...

The SCALP or MIDDLE from when this thread was started is HUGE!!!

So in essence, Mansion believes the INJURY to VIC is worth 5 1/2 points, partly too, because of who his back up is as well....

Figuring out the VALUE of these BIG injuries is not something I specialize in and I am always curious HOW the sports books figure it out...

THE SHRINK
 

daringly

EOG Enthusiast
Shrink -

thanks for the tip.

I read your thread late Saturday night, and took some NE +3 -115. I'll probably sell some back if it his ATL+3. Nothing is quite as nice as free equity from good info.
 
No Shrink the BOOKS do/did not, the PEOPLE do. If the books thought that they would have ade it 2.5 on the word of mouth alone. I also mentioned that. The books went OTB, Pin hung around and went to Atl -1. So PINNACLE thought the injury was worth 1.5 points (as they were painted 2.5 all week).


That line moving has nothing to do with the books, but everything to do with people lining up and betting this game BECASUE of the injury.

Again that is why people fail miserably betting the NFL. Overeaction, and not having a clue as to what value is or isn't.

I myself love it, as I am going to get the best of the best, and will probably have to skip church to get Atl on the ML for about +130 or more.
But when I made my posts I said that well before this game was in question. I said buying NE on the moneyline was a nice save ticket. I figured the line would move some, but opbviously with the injury, it has free fallen.

I still think Atl wins SU, but when I have a shot at a 70 cent scalp (even at a reduced bet size) I will take it.
 

MLM

EOG Member
There's still some nice value on the Pinny Team Performance props on this game: New England 24.5, Atlanta 30.

The way the rules work, if New England scores over 14 points and wins the game, the Over 24.5 is a winner. If you like NE but don't want to lay the points, this is the way to go.
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
Shrink


thanks again for that huge huge huge early news.

With the line move Im going to scalp out a profit on this game, I actually think Atlanta has a great chance to win even with no VICK. SO Im taking my huge wager on the money line from NE yesterday +130 and locking in some +120 today on Atlanta or better if I Can find it and lock in about a $260 profit and not sweat the game at all!!!

again thanks to the EOG for information first like this that leads to $$$$$ in the accounts!!!
 

null

EOG Member
Shrink thanks a lot for this info. I grabbed the Patriots at Mansion +3 -115 (actually said -114 when I looked at it). I got if maybe an hour after your post, and there was like 90k available.

I have Atlanta +8.5 in a couple of teasers, too.
 
One question. What Do you guys mean when you say there is X amount of money available on a certain number? Does Mansion show what their threshold is for moving a line or something?


If so that is sort of wierd I must say.
 
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