Fezzik forgets part of the equation

railbird

EOG Master
the team that scored 15 instead of 12 going for 2, now has to defend against 4 down football for a team trying to get in FG range, if its a tie, they are likely kneeling for OT. Also let me know the 1st team that wins by 1 doing this. its reminds me of the team "extending" the game down 10, the math geeks assume fg is automatic when it isnt.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
You always go for 2 down 8 late, especially with the XP moved back to a 30+ yard kick. Looking at how the K’s have been struggling, it’s a no-brainer. Besides the math, it’s a huge psychological advantage for the losing team as now the opponent is playing not to lose.
 

railbird

EOG Master
You always go for 2 down 8 late, especially with the XP moved back to a 30+ yard kick. Looking at how the K’s have been struggling, it’s a no-brainer. Besides the math, it’s a huge psychological advantage for the losing team as now the opponent is playing not to lose.
good point, i forgot abt xtra pt being moved back
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
good point, i forgot abt xtra pt being moved back
Probably the biggest reason to go for 2. The special teams have really gone downhill in the last few years. The other problem coaches have with 1 vs 2 points is they go for 2 too early in the game, then they are chasing failed points. How many times have we seen it play out where the points have mattered if they just kicked the XP in the 2Q?
 

Ray Luca

EOG Master
When I first read the OP, I was like of course you go for two down 8 why is it a discussion...then I realized its really down 14 and then going for two after a TD is scored cutting it to down 8
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
when the team that was down 14, goes up 1, the team down 1 now gets to play 4 down offense to make a fg, you havent won the game yet. its not checkmate.
They are going for the FG whether it’s tied or down 1. Who wouldn’t want to be leading ?
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
when the team that was down 14, goes up 1, the team down 1 now gets to play 4 down offense to make a fg, you havent won the game yet. its not checkmate.

There are all sorts of scenarios that Fezzik "forgot", that's why he stipulated only 2 TDs. The goal is to analyze the essence of the decision, in this case whether to go for 1 or 2. By construction, Fezzik's assumption of only 2 TDs dictates that the analysis is most valid very late in the game when other scenarios are even more unlikely.

The one criticism of the Fezzik argument is that there are actually 3 choices available (add the option of deferring going for 2 until TD2) : so the first 2 are TD1: go for 1 or 2 and then if TD1 = go for 1 and succeeds, TD2 is also has an option to go for 2 for the win. This case (of going for 2 only on the second TD) is shown in the ESPN above posted by Howid to also be inferior to going for 2 on TD1.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
There are all sorts of scenarios that Fezzik "forgot", that's why he stipulated only 2 TDs. The goal is to analyze the essence of the decision, in this case whether to go for 1 or 2. By construction, Fezzik's assumption of only 2 TDs dictates that the analysis is most valid very late in the game when other scenarios are even more unlikely.

The one criticism of the Fezzik argument is that there are actually 3 choices available (add the option of deferring going for 2 until TD2) : so the first 2 are TD1: go for 1 or 2 and then if TD1 = go for 1 and succeeds, TD2 is also has an option to go for 2 for the win. This case (of going for 2 only on the second TD) is shown in the ESPN above posted by Howid to also be inferior to going for 2 on TD1.
Teams will rarely do the third option for the fear of second guessing. I think that is a great strategy with a underdog though - but not as good as going for 2 down 8. The strategy of playing for the win down 1 you see in college from time to time.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Teams will rarely do the third option for the fear of second guessing. I think that is a great strategy with a underdog though - but not as good as going for 2 down 8. The strategy of playing for the win down 1 you see in college from time to time.

Yes, and I remember so-called "analysts" who would say "don't go for two until you need to", i.e. don't go until its the only way you can tie up the game.

Several other comments:

The NFL extra point change doesn't really affect the decision, the probabilities are almost the same. The decision isn't close when you get a 10 to 12% better choice to win the game. If you model the game strategy for more time left, going for 2 down 8 is the better choice (say the whole 4Q, with more scoring scenarios).
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Here's my frustration: Teams that waste a timeout to ready for a two-point conversion.

Where's the plotting/planning?

You have all week to strategize and you can't come up with the right call?

Credit the Eagles and Doug Pederson for the Philly Special in Super Bowl LII and Boise State years ago for the Statue of Liberty play in its upset win over Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.

Gamblers see these situations coming from a mile away.

Coaches and players, meantime, are scrambling on the fly.

And is there a worse play call for a 2-point conversion than a fade route to the back corner of the end zone?

Yuk.

Also, when teams are desperate to convert a two-point conversion to tie the game late in the fourth quarter, why do they always celebrate wildly when scoring the touchdown which brings them within two points?

Save your energy, men.

There's work to be done.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Just looked it up: The Philly Special was not a two-point conversion in Super Bowl LII but a fourth-and-goal call late in the second quarter.
 

Fezzik

EOG Veteran
JK Nailed it. EVERY team should have about 10 precalled plays

DUMBO DUMBO !! SHould be the 4th and 1 call........RUSH to line of scrimmage, split our 3 WR and run a QB sneak. This play call has succeeded EVERY time it has ever been called in the NFL and CFB if snapped within 15 seconds*

*not really........but close
 

railbird

EOG Master
Here's my frustration: Teams that waste a timeout to ready for a two-point conversion.

Where's the plotting/planning?

You have all week to strategize and you can't come up with the right call?

Credit the Eagles and Doug Pederson for the Philly Special in Super Bowl LII and Boise State years ago for the Statue of Liberty play in its upset win over Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.

Gamblers see these situations coming from a mile away.

Coaches and players, meantime, are scrambling on the fly.

And is there a worse play call for a 2-point conversion than a fade route to the back corner of the end zone?

Yuk.

Also, when teams are desperate to convert a two-point conversion to tie the game late in the fourth quarter, why do they always celebrate wildly when scoring the touchdown which brings them within two points?

Save your energy, men.

There's work to be done.
i like the mahomes to kelce chest pass. ive seen jacksonville go 0 for 8 inside 2 yd line recently.
 

Jammer

EOG Dedicated
JK Nailed it. EVERY team should have about 10 precalled plays

DUMBO DUMBO !! SHould be the 4th and 1 call........RUSH to line of scrimmage, split our 3 WR and run a QB sneak. This play call has succeeded EVERY time it has ever been called in the NFL and CFB if snapped within 15 seconds*

*not really........but close

The Tom Brady special on 4th and 1. Snap it as soon as you get up to the line while the Defense is still getting set. Brady usually gets 3+ yards with the sneak.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
The Tom Brady special on 4th and 1. Snap it as soon as you get up to the line while the Defense is still getting set. Brady usually gets 3+ yards with the sneak.


Loved the Brady sneak about 5-10 years ago.

At 44, Brady needs to be careful moving forward.
 

Ray Luca

EOG Master
I think you go for the XP because if you miss the 2-pt conversion, you still need another TD instead of a FG.

Think Fez is right. Going for 2 down 4 seems right but nobody does it.

What I read said being down 2 points instead of 3 helps you more than being down 4 points instead of 3 hurts you.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
One of the slight advantages of going for two when trailing by 8 in what appears to a high-risk, high-reward situation is the information gleaned from your attempt.

Your team now knows what it needs to do in the late stages of the game.
 

Fezzik

EOG Veteran
Solve by inspection:

IF going for 2 down 1 with seconds left is 50/50 vs. kicking.

Then going for 2 down 4 late simply has to be right......
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Solve by inspection:

IF going for 2 down 1 with seconds left is 50/50 vs. kicking.

Then going for 2 down 4 late simply has to be right......
Unfortunately coaches job preformance is graded on wins and losses, not the high percentage play now. They don't like their team getting torched by the media and sports radio.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
0 pct of the time is going for 2 a 50-50 deal, every situation is different
Starting with the HC - Andy Reid or Belichek can do it and no one questions the move.

I’m surprised little has been said about the end of the game decision by Buffalo last night.
 

kane

EOG master
Starting with the HC - Andy Reid or Belichek can do it and no one questions the move.

I’m surprised little has been said about the end of the game decision by Buffalo last night.
I think they made the right decision, I don't even think it was controversial. If they go to overtime the game is basically a coin flip, I have to think on fourth and a foot from where they had the ball, at that moment, their odds of winning had to be better than 50/50, Allen slipped and couldn't get any traction, I think he converts that play at a high enough percentage to make it the right call, it just didn't work out
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
I think they made the right decision, I don't even think it was controversial. If they go to overtime the game is basically a coin flip, I have to think on fourth and a foot from where they had the ball, at that moment, their odds of winning had to be better than 50/50, Allen slipped and couldn't get any traction, I think he converts that play at a high enough percentage to make it the right call, it just didn't work out
I could see why they would go for it alao, TT why weren’t stopping the Titans offense. One of the better MNF games.
 

railbird

EOG Master
I think they made the right decision, I don't even think it was controversial. If they go to overtime the game is basically a coin flip, I have to think on fourth and a foot from where they had the ball, at that moment, their odds of winning had to be better than 50/50, Allen slipped and couldn't get any traction, I think he converts that play at a high enough percentage to make it the right call, it just didn't work out
i disagree, buffalo has been mediocre in the redzone this yrm go for it at home when you can hear the snap count. everyone knows the qb sneak was coming, but that wasnt 4th and goal, that was a 4th and 1, he slipped because he was going to leap but changed his mind, both feet were in the air before he slipped, even if he made it they would ot had to convert again, so your asking a team to convert twice, and that is bad math. ot is better because you also have a shot at a tie. Buf was 65pct to win pregame, so it does not go to 50 pct ot, it is 56 buffalo not a coinflip.
 

kane

EOG master
Going for it was the right play, the fact you disagree makes me even more confident in my stance, only a pussy kicks a FG with forth and a foot at the 3 yard line
 

blueline

EOG Master
Going for it was the right play, the fact you disagree makes me even more confident in my stance, only a pussy kicks a FG with forth and a foot at the 3 yard line

100% the right call. Did buffalo stop the titans at all in the 2nd half? Getting a yard vs losing a coin flip and never seeing the ball in overtime the choice is obvious.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Starting with the HC - Andy Reid or Belichek can do it and no one questions the move.

I’m surprised little has been said about the end of the game decision by Buffalo last night.

I had no bet on the side or total last night. But I thought Buffalo got screwed on the spot. NOT on the last play, where Allen appeared to slip. On the play before, when Allen went airborne and took a shot. There's a camera right at the down marker. They showed the replay twice and I swear Allen had the first down. If he didn't, he missed by inches, not a half yard, like where the ball was spotted. I'm surprised the replay official in the booth didn't review it. It was too late in game to challenge. I guess that's part of home field advantage, whatever is left of it.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
I had no bet on the side or total last night. But I thought Buffalo got screwed on the spot. NOT on the last play, where Allen appeared to slip. On the play before, when Allen went airborne and took a shot. There's a camera right at the down marker. They showed the replay twice and I swear Allen had the first down. If he didn't, he missed by inches, not a half yard, like where the ball was spotted. I'm surprised the replay official in the booth didn't review it. It was too late in game to challenge. I guess that's part of home field advantage, whatever is left of it.
I didn’t have anything on it either. Only the head linesman can request a replay in the last 2 min and OT. It was too important a play not to review IMO.
 

kane

EOG master
The coach who kicks the FG in that spot is the same coach who punts from the opponents 40 yard line on fourth and 2 with 6 minutes to play down 7
 
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