Glaken
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Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this week's matchup between the Ravens and Steelers. Now they're back with a second look.
Monday Night Football's biggest pre-game storyline has to be the Ravens' injury report, as earlier in the week coach Brian Billick announced MLB Ray Lewis (hamstring) and DS Ed Reed (ankle) -- the last two NFL Defensive Players of the Year -- are out for this week's game at Pittsburgh.
Coach Billick has no history of playing games with his injury reports in the past, which indicates the odds of Lewis or Reed suiting up are slim. If neither is able to go, the Ravens will be completely overmatched from a personnel standpoint. Few players in the league have more of an impact from a leadership standpoint than Lewis does for the Baltimore defense. Furthermore, Lewis' instincts, range and tackling skills will be sorely missed against a Steelers' running attack that is clicking on all cylinders with the one-two punch of RBs Willie Parker and Jerome Bettis.
Reed, on the other hand, will be missed because of his exceptional range and playmaking skills in coverage, particularly against a Steelers' offense that works so well off play-action and has been getting rookie TE Heath Miller much more involved of late. In their absence, Chad Williams will move into the starting SS spot and Tommy Polley will move over from WLB to MLB, with Bart Scott filling in at the vacated WLB position.
? The Steelers' offensive philosophy is to do just as much as they need to do in order to win. As was the case against the Bengals last week, the ideal situation is to jump out to an early lead, deflate the football and grind out the win with a time-guzzling rushing attack. Parker and Bettis complement one another well. Parker lacks great size, but he adds quickness, shiftiness and burst to the Steelers' ground game. With the overpowering Bettis doing an effective job of handling most of the short-yardage and goal-line carries, Parker is able to stay fresh late in games.
? In reality, however, the Steelers' offensive line is what drives the league's seventh-ranked rushing attack. The Ravens are surrendering just 98.8 yards per game on the ground, but they could be overmatched Monday night. The interior of OC Jeff Hartings and OGs Alan Faneca and Kendall Simmons is as physical and strong as it gets in the NFL.
Baltimore DTs Kelly Gregg and Maake Kemoeatu do a good job of staying low and controlling gaps, but they will get worn down by the Steelers' line over time. FB Dan Kreider is arguably the best iso-blocker in the league right now, and he should be able to expose the out-of-place Polley at MLB. If the Steelers avoid critical mistakes and are able to get Parker and Bettis a combined 30-plus carries, Baltimore's hobbled defense will wilt in the second half.
? Miller's emergence as a legitimate pass-catching weapon gives the Steelers an offensive element that has been missing for many years. Miller has developed into an adequate run-blocker, which allows him to stay on the field more often than he did earlier in the season. The 6-foot-5, 256-pound rookie has only decent speed, but he is a big target over the middle. Most impressive are his instincts as a route runner and his hands in traffic. Now that he has established himself as a legitimate target, opposing defenses have one more thing to worry about.
The Ravens would like to cheat at least one of their safeties up into the box on first and second downs in order to beef up their run defense, but that leaves them vulnerable down the middle. And if the Ravens get caught in an eight-man box with either Williams or FS Will Demps covering Miller over the middle, it opens up a lot of room on the perimeter for WRs Hines Ward and Antwaan Randle El to operate vs. man-coverage.
? Baltimore's biggest problem has been its inability to run the football with any type of consistency. There are several contributing factors. For starters, RB Jamal Lewis is not showing the same vision and explosive initial burst he once did. Also, the right side of the Ravens' offensive line (OG Vincent Keydrick and OT Orlando Brown) looks sluggish and has not been blowing opponents off the line. And finally, the unit is consistently forced to block eight-man defensive fronts due to the lack of a vertical presence in the passing game. Things won't get any easier for the Ravens this week against a Steelers' defense that is surrendering just 90 rushing yards per game.
? The Ravens are operating more out of the shotgun than in the past. While it has helped QB Anthony Wright in his reads and in protection, it takes away from the power-running attack the Ravens have been built around. Essentially, this is a unit struggling for an identity. Wright has the athletic ability to scramble and buy a lot of second-chance passing opportunities, but he is not an efficient deep-ball passer. Furthermore, while WRs Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton are dangerous after the catch, neither has the elite speed or size to strike fear in opponents vertically.
Special Teams
There is very little that separates these two teams in terms of overall special teams play. The Ravens are doing a better job returning punts than they are in the kick return game, as RS B.J. Sams is averaging an impressive 11.6 yards per punt return but only 20.8 yards per kickoff return.
PK Matt Stover had a meltdown in the opener against Indianapolis, missing all three of his field goal attempts in a 24-7 loss, but since then he has been a perfect 9-for-9. The Ravens also have to be pleased with the development of PT Dave Zastudil, who is averaging 43.6 yards per punt while pinning the opponent inside its 20-yard line on four of his 36 attempts.
The Steelers have not been as consistent in the return game as the Ravens, but they have gotten more big plays. Ricardo Colclough is averaging a solid 22.8 yards per kickoff return, with a long of 44 yards, while Randle El improved his punt-return average to 9.2 yards per attempt with his 72-yard touchdown return against the Jaguars two weeks ago.
PT Chris Gardocki has been just decent this season, averaging 40.2 yards per punt and landing five of 23 attempts inside the opponents' 20-yard line. PK Jeff Reed gives the Steelers a slight edge because of his consistency this season and familiarity with Heinz Field, which is a notoriously tricky stadium in which to kick. Reed has connected on 10-of-12 FGs, with one of his two misses coming beyond 50 yards.
Matchups
? Baltimore OC Mike Flynn vs. Pittsburgh NT Casey Hampton
? Baltimore WR Derrick Mason vs. Pittsburgh LDC Ike Taylor
? Baltimore TE Todd Heap vs. Pittsburgh SS Troy Polamalu
? Pittsburgh FB Dan Kreider vs. Baltimore MLB Tommy Polley
? Pittsburgh LOT Marvel Smith vs. Baltimore RDE Terrell Suggs
Scouts' Edge
After studying film and analyzing statistics, it would be easy to predict the Steelers in a two-touchdown rout. Factor in a home game on Monday Night Football, and it seems a three-touchdown blowout is feasible. After all, the Ravens are averaging just 12 points per outing and limp into Heinz Field with questions regarding the availability of MLB Lewis and DS Reed.
The Steelers, on the other hand, are as healthy as they have been all season and are coming off a statement victory at Cincinnati last Sunday. But don't get caught overlooking the rivalry in this game. There is a true disdain between these two organizations, and the presence of a national audience will only add fuel to an already blazing fire. Even though the Ravens have listed Lewis as out in their initial injury report, don't be surprised if No. 52 comes dancing into the stadium in full pads Monday night. Whether he's suited up or not, Lewis will have his defensive troops at high alert in what should be a nasty, down-and-dirty defensive tussle. The Ravens do not have nearly enough offensive firepower to pull off the road upset, but their defense and special teams will keep things slightly closer than other factors might indicate.
Prediction: Steelers 20, Ravens 13
Monday Night Football's biggest pre-game storyline has to be the Ravens' injury report, as earlier in the week coach Brian Billick announced MLB Ray Lewis (hamstring) and DS Ed Reed (ankle) -- the last two NFL Defensive Players of the Year -- are out for this week's game at Pittsburgh.
Coach Billick has no history of playing games with his injury reports in the past, which indicates the odds of Lewis or Reed suiting up are slim. If neither is able to go, the Ravens will be completely overmatched from a personnel standpoint. Few players in the league have more of an impact from a leadership standpoint than Lewis does for the Baltimore defense. Furthermore, Lewis' instincts, range and tackling skills will be sorely missed against a Steelers' running attack that is clicking on all cylinders with the one-two punch of RBs Willie Parker and Jerome Bettis.
Reed, on the other hand, will be missed because of his exceptional range and playmaking skills in coverage, particularly against a Steelers' offense that works so well off play-action and has been getting rookie TE Heath Miller much more involved of late. In their absence, Chad Williams will move into the starting SS spot and Tommy Polley will move over from WLB to MLB, with Bart Scott filling in at the vacated WLB position.
? The Steelers' offensive philosophy is to do just as much as they need to do in order to win. As was the case against the Bengals last week, the ideal situation is to jump out to an early lead, deflate the football and grind out the win with a time-guzzling rushing attack. Parker and Bettis complement one another well. Parker lacks great size, but he adds quickness, shiftiness and burst to the Steelers' ground game. With the overpowering Bettis doing an effective job of handling most of the short-yardage and goal-line carries, Parker is able to stay fresh late in games.
? In reality, however, the Steelers' offensive line is what drives the league's seventh-ranked rushing attack. The Ravens are surrendering just 98.8 yards per game on the ground, but they could be overmatched Monday night. The interior of OC Jeff Hartings and OGs Alan Faneca and Kendall Simmons is as physical and strong as it gets in the NFL.
Baltimore DTs Kelly Gregg and Maake Kemoeatu do a good job of staying low and controlling gaps, but they will get worn down by the Steelers' line over time. FB Dan Kreider is arguably the best iso-blocker in the league right now, and he should be able to expose the out-of-place Polley at MLB. If the Steelers avoid critical mistakes and are able to get Parker and Bettis a combined 30-plus carries, Baltimore's hobbled defense will wilt in the second half.
? Miller's emergence as a legitimate pass-catching weapon gives the Steelers an offensive element that has been missing for many years. Miller has developed into an adequate run-blocker, which allows him to stay on the field more often than he did earlier in the season. The 6-foot-5, 256-pound rookie has only decent speed, but he is a big target over the middle. Most impressive are his instincts as a route runner and his hands in traffic. Now that he has established himself as a legitimate target, opposing defenses have one more thing to worry about.
The Ravens would like to cheat at least one of their safeties up into the box on first and second downs in order to beef up their run defense, but that leaves them vulnerable down the middle. And if the Ravens get caught in an eight-man box with either Williams or FS Will Demps covering Miller over the middle, it opens up a lot of room on the perimeter for WRs Hines Ward and Antwaan Randle El to operate vs. man-coverage.
? Baltimore's biggest problem has been its inability to run the football with any type of consistency. There are several contributing factors. For starters, RB Jamal Lewis is not showing the same vision and explosive initial burst he once did. Also, the right side of the Ravens' offensive line (OG Vincent Keydrick and OT Orlando Brown) looks sluggish and has not been blowing opponents off the line. And finally, the unit is consistently forced to block eight-man defensive fronts due to the lack of a vertical presence in the passing game. Things won't get any easier for the Ravens this week against a Steelers' defense that is surrendering just 90 rushing yards per game.
? The Ravens are operating more out of the shotgun than in the past. While it has helped QB Anthony Wright in his reads and in protection, it takes away from the power-running attack the Ravens have been built around. Essentially, this is a unit struggling for an identity. Wright has the athletic ability to scramble and buy a lot of second-chance passing opportunities, but he is not an efficient deep-ball passer. Furthermore, while WRs Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton are dangerous after the catch, neither has the elite speed or size to strike fear in opponents vertically.
Special Teams
There is very little that separates these two teams in terms of overall special teams play. The Ravens are doing a better job returning punts than they are in the kick return game, as RS B.J. Sams is averaging an impressive 11.6 yards per punt return but only 20.8 yards per kickoff return.
PK Matt Stover had a meltdown in the opener against Indianapolis, missing all three of his field goal attempts in a 24-7 loss, but since then he has been a perfect 9-for-9. The Ravens also have to be pleased with the development of PT Dave Zastudil, who is averaging 43.6 yards per punt while pinning the opponent inside its 20-yard line on four of his 36 attempts.
The Steelers have not been as consistent in the return game as the Ravens, but they have gotten more big plays. Ricardo Colclough is averaging a solid 22.8 yards per kickoff return, with a long of 44 yards, while Randle El improved his punt-return average to 9.2 yards per attempt with his 72-yard touchdown return against the Jaguars two weeks ago.
PT Chris Gardocki has been just decent this season, averaging 40.2 yards per punt and landing five of 23 attempts inside the opponents' 20-yard line. PK Jeff Reed gives the Steelers a slight edge because of his consistency this season and familiarity with Heinz Field, which is a notoriously tricky stadium in which to kick. Reed has connected on 10-of-12 FGs, with one of his two misses coming beyond 50 yards.
Matchups
? Baltimore OC Mike Flynn vs. Pittsburgh NT Casey Hampton
? Baltimore WR Derrick Mason vs. Pittsburgh LDC Ike Taylor
? Baltimore TE Todd Heap vs. Pittsburgh SS Troy Polamalu
? Pittsburgh FB Dan Kreider vs. Baltimore MLB Tommy Polley
? Pittsburgh LOT Marvel Smith vs. Baltimore RDE Terrell Suggs
Scouts' Edge
After studying film and analyzing statistics, it would be easy to predict the Steelers in a two-touchdown rout. Factor in a home game on Monday Night Football, and it seems a three-touchdown blowout is feasible. After all, the Ravens are averaging just 12 points per outing and limp into Heinz Field with questions regarding the availability of MLB Lewis and DS Reed.
The Steelers, on the other hand, are as healthy as they have been all season and are coming off a statement victory at Cincinnati last Sunday. But don't get caught overlooking the rivalry in this game. There is a true disdain between these two organizations, and the presence of a national audience will only add fuel to an already blazing fire. Even though the Ravens have listed Lewis as out in their initial injury report, don't be surprised if No. 52 comes dancing into the stadium in full pads Monday night. Whether he's suited up or not, Lewis will have his defensive troops at high alert in what should be a nasty, down-and-dirty defensive tussle. The Ravens do not have nearly enough offensive firepower to pull off the road upset, but their defense and special teams will keep things slightly closer than other factors might indicate.
Prediction: Steelers 20, Ravens 13