Derby

Willy Loman

Willy Loman

2
<TABLE class=tborder id=post6653729 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_6653729 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 1px solid">1. West Side Bernie-Closer. Ran a 107 in The Wood. Finished 2nd going 4 wide. Should be a fresh horse. Only 3rd race off layoff. If there is any kind of pace in this race, he deserves a close look. Nice work at CD. Should like distance. If you like I Want Revenge, you must consider this one.

2. Musket Man-Tactical speed. Won Ill Derby with a 104. Not sure how strong that field was. Lightly raced at 2, which I like. Coa up is a plus. Moving in right direction.

3. Mr. Hot Stuff- Closer. Looks like a plodder. Best Speed fig is 93. Even with a jump forward hard to see him winning here. He would need sick early fractions in the race even to get up for a piece. Toss him.

4. Advice- Closer. Another with unipressive speed figs. Good work at CD. Nice finish last out. Pletcher trained. Lightly raced at two, and brought along nicely this year. Gonna need a hot pace up front. Toss.

5. Hold Me Back- Tactical-closer. Great Connections. Working up to race nicely. So so work at CD. Lightly raced. Under any other trainer would wonder if the horse is ready. Interesting.
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Willy Loman

Willy Loman

2
Re: Derby

6. Friesan Fire- Speed. never gone more than 1 and 1-16th so distance is a concern. Spped figs are on the improve. Hasn't ran since 3-14. Bullet work at CD. Must consider.

7. Papa Clem- Speed-Tactical speed. Won Ark Derby with a 100. Heading in right direction. Don't really care for works at CD. Not out of the question.

8. Mine That Bird- Tactical. Strange route for the Derby. A few too many races at 2 for my liking. No major preps. Seems too slow here.

9. Join The Dance- Speed. Went 4 wide at first turn in BG. Speed figs suck. Would have to move forward big time. Good work at CD. Should get out quick.

10. Regal Ransome- Saudi invader. Bullet work at CD Hard to get a handle on him. Looks like tactical speed. Certainly has talent. Don't like horses that ship in from out of the country for this race. Asking a lot with no prep on US soil.

11. Chocolate Candy- Tactical speed. Ran in SA Derby off layoff. Should make a nice move forward. You can make a nice case for him beating Pioneer here. No big speed figurers yet, but may put one up on Saturday. Smith up. Worth a closer look. So so works at CD.
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Willy Loman

Willy Loman

2
Re: Derby

12- General Quarters- Tactical/Closer. Has not really had a break since last October. Strange way to work up to Derby. Won BG with a 98. This horse may have peaked for that race. A bullet and a solid work at CD. Had two races at CD last year and tired in both. Hmmm.
13- I Want Revenge. Tactical/Closer. Put up two monster speed figures in Gotham and Wood. Just not sure how legit those figures were. Lost twice out west to Pionneer. Then comes east and turns into a monster. Makes me wonder. Seems to be working well at CD. Should be the favorite at post time. Obviously has talent. But is he bettable as favorite? Not sure.
14-Atomic Rain-Speed/Tactical. Ran fast early last race. Had an excuse in Wood. Distance may be a question. 14 not a great post for this horse. No listed works at CD. Ran a 103 in Wood which also makes me question the figs coming out of Aqueduct that day.

15-Dunkirk. Tactical. What a beautiful horse. Reminds me in some ways of Curling. Unraced at 2. Has run a 107 and a 101 in Fla Derby to get second. Should be a very fresh horse. However he is a littl green for my liking. Watch for him to be a super horse by summer. In my opinion he is the best of the 3 year old crop. Great connections. Should go off as 2nd favorite
 
Willy Loman

Willy Loman

2
Re: Derby

16- Pioneer Of The Nile. Versatile running style. Should like the distance. Beat fav twice. Not flashy. All he does is win. Not great speed figs, but may be decieving. 2 average works at CD. Strong connections. Baffert knows how to bring a horse up to the Derby. Contender.

17- Summer Bird. Closer. Unraced at 2. Very green. Improving speed figs. Ran a nice Ark Derby. Should like added distance. Nice breeding. Worth a look.

18- Nowhere To Hide. Tactical/closer. Actually he does have somewhere to hide. At the back of the pack. Very unimpressive speed figs. Not much to like in it's last race. He however did get caught outside so has an excuse. One sub par work at CD. Probable toss.
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Willy Loman

Willy Loman

2
Re: Derby

19- Desert Party- Tactical. One of these years an Arab shipper may jump up and win this race. But untill that happens will have to take a position against them. The two seem to be very close in terms of talent but I would take Ransom over this one.

20- Flying Private. Tactical speed. Lousy post. Ran a nice race in The Lanes End. Moved backwards last race. Lukas has a history of running horses in Derby with no real shot. I think this is another. Toss.
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Willy Loman

Willy Loman

2
Re: Derby

The things I look at for The Derby.

Historical trends.
Who will get the added distance.
Who is working up to the race well.
Who will handle the CD track.
The way the pace of the race will set up.
I probably give more consideration to the Jocks and trainers for this race than other races.
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Willy Loman

Willy Loman

2
Re: Derby

Ok, let's get rid of some of the dead wood. My first throw outs are
Mr Hot Stuff
Advice - although his late move in Lex looks impressive on paper
Mine That Bird
Nowhere To Hide
Flying Private

I just don't see any of these running fast enough.
 
betfirstclass

betfirstclass

EOG Dedicated
Re: Derby

DAMN WILLY

can you simply drop off the "Cliff Notes" to this Thread with my Security OR Better yet Leave the NAME OF THE WINNER with them and save me the time . . . .

Thanks Bro



LOL / actually Pretty good Thread Bro
 
betfirstclass

betfirstclass

EOG Dedicated
Re: Derby

I hear ya

However my Knowledge on Horses = NADA


so, appreciate the "Education" in advance . . . .


Give me some NFL & NCAA FOOTBALL / / it can't get here fast enough
 
OscarB

OscarB

EOG Dedicated
Re: Derby

Thanks for the writeups Willy. I'm on the 6 fairly big. His LA Derby was a monster race. I do like Baffert's horse, but the lack of any races on dirt concerns me.

Best of luck to you, Willy.

:cheers
 
Reload

Reload

2
Re: Derby

Thanks for all the thoughts, Willy! Will you be writing up from here how you think the whole race will go from start to finish?
 
WINBET

WINBET

EOG Dedicated
Re: Derby

Willy,
Its forecast for plenty of rain tonight and tomorrow, not sure how that affects the tactics but in Britain it favours the pace horses and closers as you call them are at a disadvantage. We run on turf so dirt throws me, but on rain softened ground the breeding becomes an essential factor. :cheers
 
Willy Loman

Willy Loman

2
Re: Derby

RL, will be writing up how I think it unfolds. Winny it depends. If it's muddy it usually sets up for the closers. If it's sloppy and the horses hooves go all the way down to the hard surface, it helps the speed. I'll be making myself some notes on who I think will handle an off track and adjust my bets accordingly. I will hold off till late before getting down.
 
WINBET

WINBET

EOG Dedicated
Re: Derby

Willy Loman said:
RL, will be writing up how I think it unfolds. Winny it depends. If it's muddy it usually sets up for the closers. If it's sloppy and the horses hooves go all the way down to the hard surface, it helps the speed. I'll be making myself some notes on who I think will handle an off track and adjust my bets accordingly. I will hold off till late before getting down.
Click to expand...

Its just that there's a multitude of potential scalps if you have access to all the exchanges but experience has shown me the weather can play havoc with prices. :cheers
Kind of funny seeing Pinny with a maximum of ?37.66 :+textinb3
 
Willy Loman

Willy Loman

2
Re: Derby

WINBET said:
Its just that there's a multitude of potential scalps if you have access to all the exchanges but experience has shown me the weather can play havoc with prices. :cheers
Kind of funny seeing Pinny with a maximum of ?37.66 :+textinb3
Click to expand...
All very true. Seems like Pinny doesn't want pony action anymore.
 
OscarB

OscarB

EOG Dedicated
Re: Derby

As of Sat morning:


Louisville Churchill Downs Weather Forecast: Rain Chances Diminish


<!----> <!--paging_filter-->Heading into Saturday the chances of rain in Louisville and Churchill Downs was brought down to 40 percent compared to 70 percent forecast just 12 hours ago. Showers were occurring overnight and the chances of a muddy track were still quite high.
The all important weather forecast for Churchill Downs was likely to make all the difference in the world as only approximately five out of twenty horses would have an edge on a muddy track.
The weather forecast for Saturday issued on Friday called for a steady rain much of the afternoon. The present forecast just calls for showers, none of which were expected to be severe.
As was the case last year, the 2009 Derby field boasts a handful of horses for whom today will mark their first start over a dirt track - the most notable being multiple Grade I winner Pioneerof the Nile and Santa Anita Derby runner-up Chocolate Candy.
Overnight and steady early morning rain could muddy up the track enough that there may not be enough time for drying by Saturday evening.
 
Willy Loman

Willy Loman

2
Re: Derby

Alright I'll do a breakdown of how I think it unfolds. This is based on a dry fast track so I'll adjust my bets later based on track conditions.
Out of the gate. Join In The Dance goes right for the lead, followed by Regal Ransome to his outside. To his inside Friesan Fire and Papa Clem also get out quickly. Atomic Rain also moves from the outside. Dunkirk will also try to get out well to look for position.
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Willy Loman

Willy Loman

2
Re: Derby

1st turn.
Join The Dance has the lead. Followed closely by Freisan Fire, Papa Clem and Then Regal Ransome. Next are Atomic Rain, Pioneer, and Dunkirk, with Dunkirk getting caught a little wide. Flying Private is also forwardly placed and is caught on the outside.
Behind them runs Musket Man,General Quarters,and Mind That Bird. Desert Party drops back to move inside.
The rest drop back to look for position.
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Willy Loman

Willy Loman

2
Re: Derby

At the half, Join The Dance has been given some room. Still followed by Papa and Friesen. Atomic Rain and Regal Ransome are just off of them. Followed by Musket Man. Sitting in a stalking position are Pioneer, Dunkirk. Dessert Party has moved up to be behind them, followed by Flying Private and General Quarters. From the back Chocolate Candy has moved up a little.
 
Willy Loman

Willy Loman

2
Re: Derby

Mid back stretch.

Freisen has taken the lead followed by Papa Clem. Join is still there but essentially done. Automic Rain has dropped off but Ransome is still there. Dessert Party has moved up with Dunkirk and Pioneer. Chocolate has been picking off horses. West Side Bernie and Hold Me Back are starting to move from the back. General Quarter and Musket Man are both starting to fall back.
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Willy Loman

Willy Loman

2
Re: Derby

Going into the far turn.

Friesen still in the lead followed by Papa. Dunkirk is starting to fade. Dessert moves into third followed by Pioneer. General Quarters is still fighting but just doesn't have it. Chocolate Candy has moved into position. West Side Bernie has continued to move up. Hold Me Back is just starting to make his run. Advice is also starting to move from the back.
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Willy Loman

Willy Loman

2
Re: Derby

Top of the stretch.

Papa has taken the lead by a head. Dessert is starting to struggle. Pioneer is still a lenght off the leaders. Chocolate Candy is just off him. West Side Bernie is in the hunt also. Hold Me Back and Advice have been passing horses but still have a lot of ground to make up. Dunkirk will still be around but won't pick up any ground. Dessert Party is done. Summer Bird has also moved up into contention.
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Willy Loman

Willy Loman

2
Re: Derby

Mid stretch.

Papa Clem has a half a length on Friesen. Chocolate Candy puts a head in front of Pioneer. Summer Bird is along side Bernie. Hold is still making a run. Advice is flying but still has a lot of ground to make up. Dessert party and Dunkirk have fallen back.
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WINBET

WINBET

EOG Dedicated
Re: Derby

Willy,
Any chance you could PM me the winner so I can hoover up on the exchanges ?:cheers
 
Willy Loman

Willy Loman

2
Re: Derby

Late stretch.

Friesen has fought back on the rail and puts a head in front. Chocolate Candy is right next to those two. West Side Bernie is just back. Summer Bird has flattened out. Advice is not gonna get there. Hold me Back is still closing.
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