Conspiracy Nuts : Was the BG/Miami Ohio gm "fixed"
- Thread starter Sam Odom
- Start date
Punter taking a long snap with his eyes closed is peculiar.
Pancho Sanza
EOG Addicted
Books got middled on the first half total as well as the game total.
First half total opened 30 and closed 27.5 or 28.
that had to hurt.:smoke
First half total opened 30 and closed 27.5 or 28.
that had to hurt.:smoke
BG+10 was a great bet. I think many of you forgot who BG was. Remember opening day against Wiscy? If there are fixes, you just have to keep that in mind before the game and ask yourself, "If this game were to be fixed, who would they want to fix it for"? I dont think it is any harder trying to figure out who the league would want to win or whoever, then actually trying to pick a side against the spread. Thats why I bet teasers. The 6 points actually gives us the advantage. Betting against the spread is 50-50. Like flipping a coin. Dont bother telling me otherwise.
Pancho Sanza
EOG Addicted
Royalbasher said:
I got news for you, overall a 6 point teaser is actually about a 49/51 prop as compared to the 50/50 prop of a spread.
There are instances where teasers make sense but only through key numbers.
Enjoy the recent success but don't think it lasts forever. IF books thought it would, they would disallow teasers and I still see em available.
The reason books have them available is because most people dont play them because they dont pay enough. Most players want odds. For years Ive heard my friends say teasers dont pay. Ive been telling them forever that maybe they dont have huge odds but you will cash in more often with teasers. I also get away from them at times. If I bet them exclusively, Im positive that I would do better. I have terrible money management and no discipline. Everyone knows that. That 49/51 is BS. Obviously you cant take any game and tease it like you imply.
Pancho Sanza
EOG Addicted
What lines do you tease through, If its anything other than throught 3 and 7, forget it, you'll lose money.
The 49/51 is not something I just made up, its based on thousands of games and both dog up, fav down.
Your so blinded by the recent success that you don't want to even think you could lose.
The 49/51 is not something I just made up, its based on thousands of games and both dog up, fav down.
Your so blinded by the recent success that you don't want to even think you could lose.
First of all I have been getting killed lately so what are you talking about? Why have I been getting killed? Because I have no discipline and instead of waiting until Sunday to bet teasers, I bet all week on B-Ball and stupid College Football. Where did you get that idea that I was kicking ass? Like I said, not all games should be teased. You said only tease between 3-7 right? WRONG!!!!! How about say Carolina -8 against the Jets?How about the Steelers - 7.5 against the Browns? I could go on and on. What are you talking about?
Pancho Sanza
EOG Addicted
Royalbasher said:
Not BETWEEN 3-7, but through them, just like the two games you pointed out.
So that means bringing a 2 point dog up to +8 or an 8 point fav down to -2.
You may be the only guy on the planet this year losing money by playing teasers.:doh1
Again, Im winning on teasers but getting killed betting B-ball and college Fball during the week. If I stuck to my teasers Id be doing great. Last week I bet 11 teasers and only lost on the Giants -3. My point is that teasers are great and you were saying the odds were shitty. Now you are saying that Im the only guy to lose on them. Make up your mind guy!!!
Pancho Sanza
EOG Addicted
Royalbasher said:
THEY ARE A LOSING PROPOSITION LONG TERM UNLESS YOU TEASE THROUGH THE 3 AND THE 7.
got it?:+waving-5
Pancho Sanza
EOG Addicted
Sam Odom said:
Try season long winner, just teasing favs blindly down 6 points cashes 62 % of all 2 team 6 point teasers.:cocktail
Not really. Didnt you say taking Dallas +2 up to +8? Isnt 2 less than 3 and 8 more than 7? I think we agree that all teasers are not good bets but I dont get this 3 thru 7. Just so you know, I only bet teasers if I get a fav down to 3 or less and a dog + 7 or more. Occassionally I like a -2 so much that I will take them +4 or 3.5. For example, two weeks ago there were three games I loved like that. Bears -2.5 against Saints. Bengals -3 against Ravens, and Falcons -2 against Dolphins. I was kicking myself afterwards for not parlaying the three but you cant do that. The Bears almost lost that game. On the teaser there was no stress at all on any of those games.
Pancho Sanza
EOG Addicted
Youv'e almost got it right royal, tease to under 3 and over 7, so -2.5 or less when teasing down and +7.5 or more when teasing up.
Now you only want to work with teams that are favored from -7.5 to -8.5 on the fav side and +1.5 to +2.5 for dogs since you essentially get them to under the magic 3 and over 7.
I like to watch line moves and play em that way, teams getting steamed up or down make for advantage plays if you can get the teaser in before the line move.:cocktail
Now you only want to work with teams that are favored from -7.5 to -8.5 on the fav side and +1.5 to +2.5 for dogs since you essentially get them to under the magic 3 and over 7.
I like to watch line moves and play em that way, teams getting steamed up or down make for advantage plays if you can get the teaser in before the line move.:cocktail
Pancho Sanza
EOG Addicted
Royalbasher said:
Royal, Im of the opinion that the NFL sides are the tightest market out there, in other words the line is right almost always and you wont beat the sport in the long run.
That said, there are situations where teasing makes sense since you are paying the same to tease across all numbers when certain numbers, 3 and 7, are more valuable than others.
If you really "like" a side, dont bother with the teaser, just play it straight.
Thats rediculous. How many times have you loved a side only to see that team tank or not cover? Thats the idea with teasers. Forget who you like. Since the numbers are so tight, dont fool yourself to think you got something. You cant beat the number straight up. When you tease it, now you are the favorite. The spread makes it 50/50. It doesnt matter who you like. Dallas plus 9 or Philly +3, both winners. No bad beat on Philly. Like I said, dont bother trying to tell me that teasers arent the way to go because you came full circle when you said if you like someone straight up just take it. I dont even look at the line like that. When I look at the lines, I autimatically add the 6 to it on both sides.
well there is the answer to this problem.....if indeed you have the 60/40 scenario...and you have to tease 2 teams together..the chance of two 60% shots covering together??
60 x 60 = 36%...........even 70/30 70x 70 = 49%.....if your playing a 2 team teaser that pays even money.....u need your teaser to win at a rate of over 50% or higher to make anything. So you need to find indivudal spots where your single teams will cover with the extra points of over like 71% each.
teasers have been red hot lately
good luck
60 x 60 = 36%...........even 70/30 70x 70 = 49%.....if your playing a 2 team teaser that pays even money.....u need your teaser to win at a rate of over 50% or higher to make anything. So you need to find indivudal spots where your single teams will cover with the extra points of over like 71% each.
teasers have been red hot lately
good luck
Pancho Sanza
EOG Addicted
BowlMeOne said:
precisely, and the only subset is through 3 and 7, takes you to about 74 %
Pancho Sanza
EOG Addicted
Royalbasher said:
respectfully I don't think you are getting what I am saying.
A teaser is nothing more than buying 6 points at about 25 cents per point, since books charge the same to tease through any subset of points, you need to determine what each point is worth on an individual basis and decide whether buying all 6 is worth it.
The way to do this is buy through the points that are most valuable, 7 and 3.
Pancho Sanza
EOG Addicted
Royalbasher said:
If you teased both sides of that Eagles/cowboys game congrats.
But thats not the way to play em.:+waving-5
Now you are putting words in my mouth. When did I say I played both sides of the Eagles game? I played neither side. You seem so smart when you start with this 60/40 59 % craziness but then you miss the simple things. At no point did I say that betting both sides of a game is smart. Its dumb. Just like betting totals is dumb. Betting a side with a total on the same game is the dumbest of all.
Pancho Sanza
EOG Addicted
"Dallas plus 9 or Philly +3, both winners. No bad beat on Philly. Like I said, dont bother trying to tell me that teasers arent the way to go because you came full circle when you said if you like someone straight up just take it. I dont even look at the line like that. When I look at the lines, I autimatically add the 6 to it on both sides."
that was your post from 1:59
that was your post from 1:59