Circa's Prop: UConn & Purdue Or Field...
- Thread starter Heim
- Start date
Heim
EOG Master
Maybe it's their conference affiliation but they get no future love at books. Their #1 in NET rating, Quad 1 wins, defensive efficiency etc al.
winkyduck
TYVM Morgan William!!!
Mike Palm brought up the correct thing to do:
Take: The Field -330..........bet UConn +450ish to win the NCAA, too
If Purdue wins it all - you just accept the fact Purdue beat you
Not a bad way to bet this
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
Field is the only way to go
-330 is cheap as you can discount Purdue as a fake championship team and there hasn't been a repeat champion since 2007 florida gators.
All it takes is one underdog to get hot from three vs uconn to end them. Aka creighton
-330 is cheap as you can discount Purdue as a fake championship team and there hasn't been a repeat champion since 2007 florida gators.
All it takes is one underdog to get hot from three vs uconn to end them. Aka creighton
railbird
EOG Master
a 6 team ML parlay will like;y pay better than +450
kane
EOG master
Not only would I bet the field -330, but you can add any other team you want in addition to UConn and Purdue and I would still make that bet
Heim
EOG Master
Houston has lost most of their length due to injury...uphill battle versus any team with height down low.
Fezziksports
EOG Enthusiast
DUMBO thread of year.
Both bets are obviously bad
Cmon
16 pct +9 pct, 25% ish
Sharp 5th grader math
Both bets are obviously bad
Cmon
16 pct +9 pct, 25% ish
Sharp 5th grader math
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
Purdue is flawed as painter will choke
Uconn has probably the toughest path of all the #1s
-290 is the only way for this bet
Zero idea why it got cheaper
This is ridiculous. The vigorish on +260/-330 is 4.33% vs 4.55% for -110 each way. Definitely can be bet depending on your capping.
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
Viejo Dinosaur
EOG Master
Both UCONN and Purdue in Final Fout
Viejo Dinosaur
EOG Master
Yeah…
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
I don't like my no bet anymore
kane
EOG master
Yeah, I'm with you, I take the L in this thread
Fezziksports
EOG Enthusiast
Computer Bob simply has not thought about this enough. He is wrong.
The vig should be computed based on the UNDERDOG bet only.
By example, roulette, offer 34-1 yes, -4000 NO! BOOM!! .4% house hold game!!! Without going into great details, any high vig bet has low overall holds since the NO at big vig can pay woeful odds, and be low theo.
The vig should be computed based on the UNDERDOG bet only.
By example, roulette, offer 34-1 yes, -4000 NO! BOOM!! .4% house hold game!!! Without going into great details, any high vig bet has low overall holds since the NO at big vig can pay woeful odds, and be low theo.
Fezziksports
EOG Enthusiast
so -280 +340 , the RIGHT way to compute the Realistic house edge is to compare +280 to the true +310 and not dilute this with the -340 being "really good theo!!!" vs. -310"
Heim
EOG Master
You're the expert on high vig bets...
Viejo Dinosaur
EOG Master
Awful nice to have Purdue at 12-1 to win it all….I have options
Viejo Dinosaur
EOG Master
How’s Purdue looking now?
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
They couldn’t have had an easier route. Northwestern beat them once, and should have swept them if it wasn’t for the refs taking over the game. In fact NW scored over 90 each time. UConn should be able to put up 77 on them - their TT.
It felt like all the "modelers" were on Alabama. Modelers do well in regular season sports but always complain about the post season. Change your model. Or use your brain. Momentum (i.e. current form) DOES matter. Momentum builds confidence. Modelers don't like it because it can't be quantified. This isn't just about the NCAA tournament. Look at the NFL, MLB. Who's hot at the right time matters more than who built up big stats 3-4 months before.
Fezzik has apparently latched on to some goofball's brain-dead theory.
Ya gotta love a stupid analogy to roulette which has fixed odds (barring any mechanical defect and ball dropping measurement). And then comparing the example of +3400 to the +260 in the prop above. The hold %, over the long run, in roulette is fixed, while in sports the book has a theoretical hold % based on balanced action.
The vig is arbitrarily set by the bookie to balance a larger handle with expected profit. Jimmy Vacarro once said he'd make 40 cent baseball lines of -120/-120 if he could get any business.
Fezziksports
EOG Enthusiast
Bob, I have run the numbers on this for years. You are wrong.
An extreme example is 'guess the birthday" of a random person.
Yes 100-1
No Lay 1000 to make 1.
The house edge is below 1% Theo.
Adding "no" to a longshot bet unnaturally depresses the theo hold and is very inaccurate.
When pricing ANY bet the Right way to measure the house edge (for instance golfer to win masters)
If Yes is 20-1, No -2800, would be to compare 20-1 to no vig 24-1/-2400. Adding the "no" makes it look like low THEO GREAT pricing. It simply is not true.
In the rouletted wheel example, if a casino offered 35-1 but let you bet NO at a sucker -4500 it would lower the theo.
An extreme example is 'guess the birthday" of a random person.
Yes 100-1
No Lay 1000 to make 1.
The house edge is below 1% Theo.
Adding "no" to a longshot bet unnaturally depresses the theo hold and is very inaccurate.
When pricing ANY bet the Right way to measure the house edge (for instance golfer to win masters)
If Yes is 20-1, No -2800, would be to compare 20-1 to no vig 24-1/-2400. Adding the "no" makes it look like low THEO GREAT pricing. It simply is not true.
In the rouletted wheel example, if a casino offered 35-1 but let you bet NO at a sucker -4500 it would lower the theo.
Fezziksports
EOG Enthusiast
The reason the roulette example is so good, OBVIOUSLY it cannot make roulette a better game to offer -4500, but the theo hold 'lies' and says it is.
Fezziksports
EOG Enthusiast
Please explain to me how:
You can take a house theo 5% or much higher hold ( Example Masters to win bets)
Yet magically post the "NO"s on it and suddenly argue the vig on those is no longer like 20% but suddenly below 5%!!
You can take a house theo 5% or much higher hold ( Example Masters to win bets)
Yet magically post the "NO"s on it and suddenly argue the vig on those is no longer like 20% but suddenly below 5%!!