Baseball/Fantasy News 2008

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Sell High for the Second Half
With the second half getting underway today, it's a good time to look at my favorite "buy-low" and "sell-high" candidates for the remainder of the season. Yesterday in this space my buy-low picks were discussed and the response was predictably very pleasant, because no one objects when you write that a player is better than he's shown thus far. Of course, the flip side is that today's column focuses on my sell-high candidates and the response to this sort of thing tends to be ugly.

It's a natural companion piece to the buy-low list and focuses on the same general principles, just in reverse. Basically, the goal here is to identify players who a) saw their value rise during a good first half, and b) figure to have difficulty maintaining that performance in the second half. Simple enough, right? Except when you write that a player is worse than he's shown thus far, the objections come flying in.

Opining yesterday that Justin Verlander was likely to improve upon his disappointing 7-9 record and 4.15 ERA got absolutely no one upset. However, opining today that Justin Duchscherer is unlikely to keep his ERA under 2.00 in the second half will inevitably lead to angry e-mails. It's like commenting on a buddy's girlfriend after meeting her for the first time. No one minds if you say that she's prettier than you expected, but saying that she's uglier probably gets you punched.

Milton Bradley (OF, Rangers) ? Bradley might have a better chance of keeping his OPS above 1.000 than you'd imagine, because he's hitting .312/.424/.582 with 32 homers and 94 RBIs in 141 games dating back to last year. However, his lengthy injury history is still more than enough reason to sell high. Bradley has already missed 16 of the Rangers' first 96 games and hasn't played more than 100 games in a season since 2004. If decline doesn't get him, injuries will.

Justin Duchscherer (SP, A's) ? It makes sense to sell high on anyone with a 1.82 ERA at the All-Star break, but it's especially true in Duchscherer's case. He's had 80 percent of his balls in play turned into outs by the A's defense and has stranded 80 percent of his runners on base, but neither of those rates are sustainable long term. Thanks to years in the bullpen and injuries he's also already thrown more innings than in any season since 2003. He's good, but start shopping.

Brian Fuentes (RP, Rockies) ? Fuentes has done a nice job since reclaiming ninth-inning duties from Manny Corpas in mid-April, converting 14-of-16 save chances with a 3.67 ERA and 30 strikeouts over 27 innings. He's repeatedly proven himself to be a capable closer despite calling Coors Field home for the past seven seasons, but sounds likely to be traded before the July 31 deadline and will almost surely be limited to a setup role wherever he lands.

Armando Galarraga (SP, Tigers) ? With the veterans in the Tigers' rotation either disappointing or getting hurt in the first half, Galarraga provided a major bright spot by going 7-3 with a 3.27 ERA. For most rookies that'd be a sign of great things to come, but Galarraga is already 26 years old and has gotten by with lots of smoke and mirrors. His strikeout rate is mediocre, his control is sub par, and he's not a ground-ball pitcher, so don't expect a sub-.400 ERA for much longer.

Matt Holliday (OF, Rockies) ? Holliday makes this list solely due to rumors that the Rockies are looking to trade him, because moving away from Coors Field would crush his fantasy value. He finished second in the MVP voting last year and is widely considered one of the NL's top hitters because of gaudy raw numbers, but Holliday has hit just .277-18-73 per 600 plate appearances on the road during his career, compared to .364-34-124 per 600 plate appearances at home.

Todd Jones (RP, Tigers) ? How long can the Tigers stick with a closer who struggles to keep his ERA below 5.00 and barely totals more strikeouts than walks? So far it's been three seasons, but Jones may finally be in danger of losing ninth-inning duties now that Joel Zumaya is back from the disabled list and the Tigers are fighting just to remain in contention. He's beaten the odds in the past, but with just 13 strikeouts in 36.1 innings Jones' tightrope-walking days are numbered.

Daisuke Matsuzaka (SP, Red Sox) ? Matsuzaka is having an odd sophomore year. His strikeouts are down 15 percent and his walks are up 60 percent, yet he's sliced nearly two runs off his ERA while going 10-1. A huge improvement keeping the ball in the ballpark is the driving force, but it's largely due to luck. He remains an extreme fly-ball pitcher, but after giving up a homer on 12 percent of his fly balls last year that number has dropped to six percent. It won't stay that way.

David Murphy (OF, Rangers) ? If not for Josh Hamilton's amazing first half Murphy coming out of nowhere to rank sixth in the league with 60 RBIs would be a bigger story, but unfortunately he's not likely to keep it going. Murphy has 13 homers in 384 plate appearances after averaging just seven homers per 384 plate appearances in the minors, and has never hit more than 14 homers in a season previously. Cash him in now before the power dries up.

Xavier Nady (OF, Pirates) ? Nady had a fantastic first half, hitting .321 with a .902 OPS, but his track record suggests a looming trip back down to earth. A 29-year-old who came into this season with a .272 batting average and .768 OPS in 1,800 career plate appearances, he's never topped 20 homers or 75 RBIs. Toss in a .351 batting average on balls in play that's 40 points better than his career mark coming into the season and it's tough to see Nady avoiding a decline.

Scott Olsen (SP, Marlins) ? On the surface Olsen has bounced back from a disappointing 2007 season by posting a career-best 3.77 ERA, but there's little in his performance to suggest that it's sustainable. Once a hard-thrower who racked up strikeouts, this year he's averaging under five strikeouts per nine innings and has lost three miles per hour on his fastball. Olsen has benefited from strong defense and good luck, but with a 64-to-43 strikeout-to-walk ratio it'll be short-lived.

Joe Saunders (SP, Angels) ? Saunders and Cliff Lee are tied for the AL lead with 12 wins, but unlike Lee his great first half was due more to good fortunate than legit improvement. Saunders came into this season with a 4.71 ERA in 187 big-league innings after posting a 3.81 ERA in 276 innings at Triple-A. That makes his current 3.07 mark stick out like a sore thumb, and just 63 strikeouts in 120 innings suggests that he's still the same mediocre pitcher, just with better luck.

C.J. Wilson (RP, Rangers) ? Wilson has converted 34-of-38 save chances since taking over as the Rangers' closer midway through last year, but he's sporting an ugly 5.01 ERA and manager Ron Washington has repeatedly dropped hints that his grip on ninth-inning duties isn't overly secure. Wilson has had several ugly outings in non-save situations and with longtime closer Eddie Guardado pitching well in a setup role he may be a couple blown leads from a demotion.

Dishonorable Mentions: Gavin Floyd (SP, White Sox); Jerry Hairston Jr. (SS, Reds); Aubrey Huff (1B, Orioles); Kyle Kendrick (SP, Phillies); Kyle Lohse (SP, Cardinals); Ryan Ludwick (OF, Cardinals); Jamie Moyer (SP, Philles); Miguel Olivo (C, Royals); Vicente Padilla (SP, Rangers); Nick Punto (SS, Twins); Greg Smith (SP, A's)

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

A's Deal Blanton to Phillies
General manager Billy Beane and the A's continued to part with veterans Thursday, following up the Rich Harden trade by dealing Joe Blanton to the Phillies for a trio of prospects. Oakland is just 4.5 games out of a playoff spot, but Beane has never been shy about rebuilding on the fly and got a surprisingly good package of players in exchange for Blanton. His return on the Harden deal was less impressive, but clearly the A's felt dealing him before injuries could strike made sense.

Blanton landed on the "honorable mention" list in my column earlier this week discussing potential buy-low targets for the second half, but that was assuming he'd remain in Oakland. While moving to the weaker league is certainly a positive for any pitcher, over the years Blanton has benefited tremendously from the A's pitcher-friendly home ballpark. He's posted a 3.79 ERA in 408 innings at home, compared to a 4.78 mark in 352 innings on the road.

Along with saying goodbye to the spacious foul territory and forgiving dimensions in Oakland, Blanton heads to one of baseball's most hitter-friendly, power-boosting ballparks in Philadelphia. He's better than his 5-12 record this season has shown, but may have a tough time maintaining a 4.25 career ERA with the Phillies. On the other hand, he goes from receiving horrible run support from one of the AL's worst offenses to a lineup that has the second-most runs in the NL.

Trading away a solid 27-year-old starter who was under the team's control for two more seasons will draw plenty of criticism, but unlike parting with Harden giving up Blanton has little chance of coming back to haunt the A's. They've stockpiled enough young pitching depth to be confident about replacing Blanton's 4.00-something ERA and picked up an excellent second-base prospect in former first-round pick Adrian Cardenas.

At just 20 years old he's a long way from the majors, but Cardenas is hitting .309/.374/.444 while going a perfect 16-for-16 on steal attempts in 67 games at high Single-A. He doesn't project as a big-time power source, but should be able to smack 10-15 homers per season and sports a pretty .303 batting average through 1,032 pro plate appearances. Along with Cardenas, the A's also get 23-year-old southpaw Josh Outman and 22-year-old outfielder Matthew Spencer.

Spencer has struggled at Single-A after being a third-round pick in 2007, but Outman could have some fantasy relevance fairly soon. He has a 3.20 ERA and 66-to-37 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 70 innings split between starting and relieving at Double-A, shifting to the bullpen after beginning the season in the rotation. Outman's shaky control may lead to career spent relieving, but the A's will give him a chance to continue starting and he has the stuff to succeed if he can throw strikes.

Along with the immediate impact, the Blanton trade also clears the path for two other interesting decisions. One is that the Phillies may now be tempted to bring Brett Myers back from the minors as a reliever, which while perhaps ultimately his best role would crush his already sagging fantasy value by making him a setup man for closer Brad Lidge. Meanwhile, by dealing both Harden and Blanton the A's seemingly could turn their attention to smartly cashing in Justin Duchscherer.

While Blanton heads for an increased winning percentage and ERA, here are some other notes from around baseball ?

* David Ortiz homered in his first minor-league rehab game Thursday at Triple-A, providing some optimism that his injured wrist has benefited from six weeks on the sidelines. Ortiz is expected to play seven rehab games before coming off the disabled list on July 25, although that return date certainly isn't set in stone either way. Fittingly, the Red Sox open a three-game series against the Yankees at Fenwark Park on July 25.

* Released last week by the Mariners, Richie Sexson has reportedly latched on with the Yankees, who'll likely give him a chance to platoon with Jason Giambi at first base. Sexson may be done as a quality regular, but still has enough juice left in his bat to be effective if spotted against left-handers. Giambi has posted an OPS around .900 versus both righties and lefties this season, but was about 15 percent less effective against southpaws over the previous three years.

* Meanwhile, having perhaps realized that giving Sexson's playing time to Jose Vidro makes zero sense, the Mariners are expected to call up prospect Bryan LaHair from Triple-A. At 25 years old he's far from a top-notch prospect, but LaHair has earned a chance by hitting .282/.351/.459 with 34 homers and 178 RBIs in 277 games at Triple-A. He projects as a platoon player rather than a full-time starter, but should put up decent numbers against right-handers if given the opportunity.

AL Quick Hits: Marcus Thames continued his hot hitting with another homer Thursday, giving him 18 long balls in just 208 plate appearances overall and 16 homers in his last 41 games ? After unexpectedly pitching in the All-Star game, Scott Kazmir's next scheduled start has been pushed back from Saturday to either Sunday or Monday ? Asdrubal Cabrera is set to rejoin the Indians for Friday's game, reclaiming the starting job at second base after batting .326/.375/.475 in 34 games following a demotion to Triple-A ? Carlos Guillen has left the Tigers to be with his wife following complications from child birth, with Brandon Inge starting at third base Thursday ? Troy Percival (hamstring) threw to live hitters Thursday and could come off the disabled list as soon as this weekend, with an immediate return to ninth-inning duties expected ? Garrett Olson struggled Thursday for the third straight start, allowing five runs in six innings ? Gary Sheffield accounted for some of the damage against Olson by homering for the first time since June 26, snapping an 8-for-49 (.163) slump during that 13-game span.

NL Quick Hits: Taking a big step in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, Chris Carpenter is scheduled to make his first minor-league rehab start Saturday at Double-A ? David Wright smacked a game-tying homer in the ninth inning and drove in four runs Thursday as the Mets moved into a first-place tie with their 10th straight victory ? Francisco Cordero blew his fifth save Thursday, coughing up four runs on six hits while recording one out ? Upset at being left off the All-Star team, Kyle Lohse improved to 12-2 with seven innings of two-run ball Thursday ? Jake Peavy tied a career-high by serving up four homers in Thursday's loss, although thanks to zero runners being on base for the blasts he still managed to turn in a decent outing ? Troy Glaus went deep twice Thursday and has raised his OPS by 75 points in the past four games ? Adam LaRoche (thumb) returned to the lineup Thursday with two hits and is now batting .415 with an .854 slugging percentage this month ? Andrew Miller is headed to the disabled list with knee tendinitis, but the Marlins are reportedly hopeful that he can return when eligible in two weeks. www.newyorkmets.ws

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Tricks of the trade
Just like in the majors, the trading deadline in many fantasy leagues is fast approaching. And arguably the top two starting pitchers on the market have already been dealt.

Those in keeper leagues will instantly recognize the CC Sabathia-Matt LaPorta trade between the Cleveland Indians and Milwaukee Brewers as the kind that's made every year. One team is looking for that one player to put it over the top, and the other is looking to rebuild for next season.

Similarly, the Chicago Cubs gave up a 22-year-old rookie pitcher in Sean Gallagher, a career .292 hitter in Matt Murton and two others to add a potential ace in Rich Harden.

No doubt, those major league general managers are ascribing to the theory that shrewd fantasy baseball owners realized long ago.

Lesson No. 1: The sooner a deal is made, the better.

The Brewers and Cubs decided they were playing for this season and needed front-line starters for the stretch run. So they made sure to get ones who could contribute for almost three full months.

The same theory can be applied to fantasy baseball. Address your team's weaknesses sooner rather than later and you'll reap the maximum benefit.

Every year there comes a point when a clear dividing line is drawn in the standings. There are teams that are strong enough to win a championship, and there are teams that are clearly inferior. The sooner those owners recognize which description fits them, the better they can position themselves for success.

For example, in one of my NL-only keeper leagues, one owner traded high-priced stars Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley just five weeks into the season. The move was ridiculed at the time, but the package the owner received in return ? pitcher Chad Billingsley, first baseman Joey Votto and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki? was a major coup, especially at those players' fantasy salaries.

Now as the league's trade deadline draws near, the number of contending teams has shrunk, and the number of reasonably priced players on the market has all but dried up. Also, the deals that other out-of-the-running teams have been able to make since then have netted far less.

Conversely, the team that got Rollins and Utley has enjoyed their production since mid-May and is in position to make the playoffs.

Lesson No. 2: Don't count on using the deadline to your advantage.

Procrastination is one of the most common human traits. We wait until the last minute for so many things. Whether it's filing taxes, writing term papers or cleaning out cat boxes, waiting until the last minute somehow gives us a feeling that whatever discomfort comes with these activities will be lessened if we put it off.

Many fantasy owners believe waiting until the last minute to make a trade will force the other side to cave in to their terms. Perhaps that happens occasionally, but more often than not it results in both sides getting less than they wanted or in no deal at all.

If the other owner promises to "think about" your offer without proposing something else, your chances of getting something done aren't very good.

In the Harden trade, Cubs general manager Jim Hendry said he and Oakland A's GM Billy Beane kept in constant contact, batting names of players back and forth. It took considerable time to hammer out something that worked for both sides, but in the end, both teams were happy with the results.

The front-running Cubs had Harden as their prime target, and the A's needed a young pitcher who could fill his spot in the rotation. The A's determined they wanted Gallagher, whom the Cubs were reluctant to give up because of his ability to move easily between the rotation and the bullpen. The A's offered Chad Gaudin, whom they didn't value as highly, but someone who could fill that role for the Cubs.

Which brings us to ?

Lesson No. 3: If you aren't looking at the deal from the other team's perspective, you're not likely to get a deal done.

This is where many novices run into problems. They want quality players but aren't willing to give anything up. If you can give the other owner a genuine reason to make the deal, you're on the right track.

Instead of scouring other teams' rosters for the players who can help you the most, check them for obvious weaknesses. Those in Roto leagues have a handy gauge: the point totals in each category. If one team is near the bottom in stolen bases for example, see if you can address that need with a player of your own.

Then, as the Cubs and A's did, work to address both teams' needs. Add another player or two on both sides to make the deal more equitable. If you can develop this kind of give-and-take relationship with just a few of the other owners in your league, you'll make more than your share of successful trades.

If that approach doesn't work ?

Lesson No. 4: Know when to say no.

In almost every fantasy league there are at least one or two Billy Beanes who enjoy trading and who are comfortable talking to anyone. However, there's usually also an owner everyone tries avoid in trade talks. It's the person who has a hard time making a final decision, one who will waffle when a deal is proposed, preferring to analyze the trade from a thousand different angles.

If you've gone back and forth and can't seem to get an agreement, it's probably best not to waste any more time. Remember, one of the oldest clich?s in baseball is that sometimes the best trades are the ones that are never made.

Lesson No. 5: Fantasy trades rarely should be overturned.

One of the most frequent questions I get in the fantasy mailbag each week has to do with trades that are deemed "unfair." Many times, the writers feel deals should be disallowed because they give one team a clear path to winning the league championship.

First of all, even though a team adds someone like Sabathia or Harden for a handful of prospects or draft picks, that team isn't guaranteed victory.

Secondly, just because a trade seems lopsided doesn't mean it will turn out that way.

Some of the most celebrated trades in major league history appeared to be heavily in favor of one team, only to turn the other way several years later. The Detroit Tigers acquired Doyle Alexander in mid-August of 1987 for a minor league pitching prospect, then Alexander went 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA and helped the Tigers win the American League East title.

It was a great move, except that Alexander retired two years later. The prospect, of course, was 20-year-old John Smoltz, who spent the next 20 years helping lead the Braves to 14 playoff appearances.

There are other examples: Pitcher Randy Johnson from the Seattle Mariners to the Houston Astros in 1998 for pitchers Freddy Garcia and John Halama and infielder Carlos Guillen; and pitcher Bartolo Colon to the Montreal Expos in 2002 in a deal that netted Cleveland infielder Brandon Phillips, pitcher Cliff Lee and outfielder Grady Sizemore.

Fantasy baseball works the same way. Players can get hurt or underperform. Prospects can blossom. As long as both sides can legitimately claim they're getting something out of the deal ? whether it's something for this season or the promise of a future star ? the trades should go through.

The duty of a commissioner isn't to prevent trades that are "unfair" or "lopsided," it's to make sure there's no collusion and that all deals are made in good faith.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Johnny B. Good (and big)
There's no time for joking around when one has the opportunity to add a 290-pound baseball player to their fantasy squad, so let's get down to business.

[SIZE=+1]National League[/SIZE]

1. Jonathan Broxton ? RP ? LAD - Broxton is owned in almost every league out there, so I'll keep this short: grab him if you can. Takashi Saito might need surgery on his arm and there's a very good chance he'll be out the rest of the season, leaving Broxton with the closing job.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

2. Chris Iannetta ? C- COL - Chris Iannetta has a firm hold on the catching job in Colorado, and is currently hitting .281 with 10 home runs and 37 RBI in 171 at-bats. In most standard leagues, Iannetta has been a top-10 catcher this season, yet he's owned in just one out of every ten leagues. His .281/.380/.544 line suggests that should change.
Recommendation: Should be owned in mixed leagues.

3. Joe Blanton ? SP ? PHI - With Joe Blanton now in the National League, NL-only leaguers should grab him, but don't expect him to turn your fantasy squad around. Opponents were hitting .284 off him, despite the fact that he threw 89 1/3 of his 127 innings at the very pitcher-friendly ballpark in Oakland. His 62/35 K/BB ratio didn't help matters. Blanton now finds himself in the National League where he'll get to face pitchers, and that should help counteract the shift to a slightly more hitter-friendly ballpark. He'll also get more run support, which should boost his record, but Blanton will need to reestablish his dominance from last season to truly be a difference maker in the second half.
Recommendation: Should be grabbed in NL-only leagues.

4. Chris Carpenter ? SP ? STL - Carpenter, who hasn't pitched since the first game of last season, is going to make a rehab start for Double-A Northwest Arkansas on Sunday. It's very possible he'll suffer a setback and his return will be delayed, but there's also a good chance he could return to St. Louis during the second week of August and post a sub 3.50 ERA. Obviously that would be the best case scenario, but Carpenter's progress in the minor leagues should definitely be monitored, and owners with bench space should consider stashing him in the meantime.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues.

5. Jaime Garcia ? SP ? STL - Garcia will make his first major league start on Sunday against the Padres. He's pitched two scoreless innings in relief for the Cards, and thrived at Double-A this season, but he's gone 3-2 with a 4.59 ERA at Triple-A so far this year. Part of the problem is his 57/25 K/BB ratio which demonstrates some of his inconsistent control. When Garcia is off, he's really off, which should make him somewhat unpredictable this season. As the 22-year-old develops, though, he should become a solid middle of the rotation-type pitcher.
Recommendation: Monitor in NL-only leagues.

6. Freddy Garcia ? SP ? FA - Garcia hasn't latched onto a team yet, but I'm sticking him in the NL because that's where he pitched last. Unfortunately, he did so rather ineffectively, posting a 5.90 ERA in 11 starts for the Phillies last season. He was clearly bothered by his shoulder, and underwent surgery on his labrum last August. Garcia still hasn't faced live hitters, but he and his agent say they're looking for a one-year deal which suggests that he thinks he will prove he's fully recovered this season and will get a nice contract this winter. Garcia is hoping to throw for scouts by the end of the month, which is when we should have a better idea where his stuff stands. For now, just monitor him.
Recommendation: Should be monitored in mixed leagues

7. Fernando Tatis ? OF ? NYM - Fernando Tatis is hitting .432 with four homers in 37 July at-bats. Let me state immediately that he will definitely not continue at this pace. Tatis had been out of the majors for two years prior to this season and he hasn't finished with an average over .255 since 2001 with the Expos. That being said, Tatis has clearly been swinging the bat well, and is currently the Mets' best option. Grab him while he's hot, but do NOT expect this to last. www.newyorkmets.ws
Recommendation: Worth short-term consideration in NL-only leagues.
<!--RW-->
[SIZE=+1]American League[/SIZE]

1. Francisco Liriano ? SP ? MIN - If Liriano hasn't been grabbed in your league, please just do it. He was rushed back after Tommy John surgery, but he's 7-0 with a 2.73 ERA in his last nine starts at Triple-A, with a fastball touching 97 mph. Of all the pitchers on the waiver wire, he has the best chance at making a significant contribution in the second half.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

2. Hank Blalock ? 1B/3B ? TEX - Blalock is finally returning from a myriad of injuries, and the Rangers will stick him back at third base (good news for Chris Davis, who will stick in the lineup). Blalock had a strong finish to last year ? he had a 900 OPS in his last 58 games ? and before getting injured this year he was hitting .299/.365/.460 with three homers in 87 at-bats. That being said, it would seem that wrist surgery could zap him of his power. Still, he should hit for a fine average and any dingers would just be gravy.
Recommendation: Should be owned in mixed leagues.

3. Tim Wakefield ? SP ? BOS - Wakefield is currently sporting a 3.60 ERA, but that's largely due to his lucky .237 BABIP, which is about half a point better than his career average. Wakefield hasn't finished with an ERA under four since 2002. That being said, Wakefield has been pitching effectively deeper in games this season. Last year he sporting a .287 BAA in the fourth through sixth innings, and this year it's at just .209. He only faced 69 batters in the seventh through ninth innings last season, and posted a .319 BAA. This year, he's already faced 54 batters in the seventh through ninth and he's posted a solid .185 BAA. Perhaps his success is a result of better offseason conditioning. Regardless, he can be used until his numbers start to deteriorate.
Recommendation: Should be owned in mixed leagues.

4. Frank Thomas ? 1B ? OAK - Thomas is expected to return by the end of the month, and he's hitting .315 with four homers and 16 RBI in 91 at-bats for the Athletics. The power showed up just before he was placed on the disabled list, so teams in need of power that won't kill their batting average should keep Big Frank in mind.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues.

5. Asdrubal Cabrera ? 2B ? CLE - Cabrera hit .283/.354/.421 in 159 at-bats with the Indians last season, but the 22-year-old struggled in the majors this year, hitting .184/.282/.247. He was sent down in early June, and hit .326/.375/.475 in the minor leagues. He's being brought into a low-pressure situation with the Indians safely out of contention, and should be given every opportunity to establish himself at second base with Jamey Carroll coming back to earth.
Recommendation: Should be grabbed in AL-only leagues.

6. Gio Gonzalez ? SP ? OAK - The Athletics haven't decided who they'll promote to take Joe Blanton's spot in the rotation, but assistant GM David Forst says that Gio Gonzalez has "definitely pitched well enough to put himself in the coversation." Kirk Saarloos and Lenny DiNardo are other options, but Gonzalez is the most intriguing for fantasy purposes. In his last ten starts he's 6-4 with a 3.08 ERA and 73 strikeouts in just 61 1/3 innings. He's walking almost four batters per game over that span, which takes off some of the luster, but he's definitely someone to watch if he gets the call.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in AL-only leagues.

7. Bryan LaHair ? 1B ?SEA - Bryan LaHair was hitting .263 in the minor leagues, and that's largely a result of his .183 average against left-handed pitchers. Against righties he hit .287/.392/.529 with 11 of his 12 homers. That split suggests he's more of a platoon player, but the Mariners say they want to see LaHair's playing time gradually increase as the season wears on.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in AL-only leagues.

8. Alan Embree ? RP ? OAK - With Oakland hemorrhaging pitchers to the National league, the speculation that Huston Street will be traded has started up once again. It's unknown just who would supplant him, but with Joey Devine and Keith Foulke injured, the two immediate candidates seem to be Santiago Casilla and Alan Embree. Casilla has been giving up a bunch of runs since returning from the disabled list, so for now I'll peg Embree as the favorite. Since we're talking about Oakland, this could change very easily.
Recommendation: Monitor situation in mixed leagues.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

There's a Moose on the Loose
The Moose is loose in New York, Fukudome flails in Chicago and more ramblings from Schultz in this week's Week That Was.

Mike Mussina: Mike Mussina continued his magical comeback season by picking up his 12th win and helping the Yankees get off to a good start in the second half. The Moose went six, allowing just one run and striking out six. Can this continue throughout the second half? Answer ? Yes (and I would say that even if I didn't fear the wrath of the world's biggest Moose fan who is also a loyal reader). The truth is that the Yankee hurler has adapted his game to fit his stuff. Despite throwing in the high 80's at best, Mussina is moving the ball around, keeping hitters off balance and even pitching inside more than he has in the last few years. Buy.

Kosuke Fukudome: Despite getting a silly, soppy nod to play in the allstar game, Kosuke Fukudome continues to struggle. The Cub outfielder is well below the Mendoza line this month and is hitting only .276 for the year. This one is easy ? SELL. First, Fukudome is not nearly as good as his jersey sales indicate. Second, Japanese players, who are used to much shorter seasons, often wilt in the dog days of August. Third, Japanese players rarely hit for power in their first year in MLB. Sell, Sell Sell.

Michael Bourn: According to reports, the Astros have given Michael Bourn a seat on the pine. This year, Bourn has personified the phrase "you cannot steal first base." While hitting only .218, Bourn has managed to tally 32 swipes. What to do if you are a Bourn owner? Two things: First, do not panic. The Astros will get tired of Erstad very quickly. Second, add a top average hitter to add balance. If you get a .318 hitter, the two are at .268 and you have the steals to boot.

Luke Scott: Luke Scott went yard twice last night in the Orioles win over Detroit. For the year, Scott has belted 16 dingers and driven in 37. Hitting in Camden throughout the summer will only help to prop up already good power numbers. Scott is a quality outfielder who often flies under the radar. If you own him, hold. If not, call up the Luke owner in your league, rag on his .260 average and see if you can get a bargain. He was a .290 type hitter in the minors and should improve that .260 average this year.

A.J. Burnett: A.J. Burnett tossed another gem yesterday, giving up just 2 earned runs in seven innings while striking out 6. Burnett is one of the most frustrating players to own. He has Cy Young caliber stuff but cannot seem to bring his A game with any degree of consistency. Given that he can opt out of his contract after this year, he is a good candidate to be dealt in the next couple of weeks. If he ends up back in the NL, he makes a good place to spend all of your FAAB. If he stays in the AL, only teams that need to take a big risk to move up should gamble on the inconsistent and frustrating A.J.

Justin Upton: As expected, Arizona put Justin Upton on the shelf due to his oblique injury. Upton, who has a world of talent, has struggled this year. Justin is hitting just .242 and has already struck out almost 100 times. In keeper leagues, he is a must have. In non-keeper leagues, Upton owners should wait until he comes back and deal him at the first hot streak. The odds of the 20 year old coming back from the oblique injury and posting a good average the rest of the way are very long indeed.

Joe Blanton: The Phillies continued the NL trend of importing pitchers from the AL, adding Joe Blanton to their rotation. Yes, he is going from the AL to the NL and will not have to face the DH. However, he is also going from a pitchers' park to a bandbox in Philly. Given that he has been just bad this year with a 4.96 ERA, you are really just hoping against hope if you bet your fantasy fortunes on Blanton. If you have a ton of FAAB left, don't blow it on Joe. Wait to see who else arrives before July 31.

Leo Nunez: Leo Nunez should come off the DL this week. Those of you in AL only leagues should take notice. First, Nunez was doing the job before he got hurt, posting a sub 2.00 ERA. Second, he is a favorite of my friend and baseball genius Jason Grey and that is good enough reason to pick up any player. Third, reports indicate he has been throwing in the mid 90s. BUY.

Hank Blalock: Hank Blalock returned from the DL and took over at the hot corner for the Rangers. Blalock, a prime candidate to be dealt in the next two weeks, has become a low power, high average hitter ever since returning to the bigs late last year (.292 this year, .293 in limited time last year). If you own Blalock, hold, but be mindful that he will not likely hit for power and could very well find himself in a ballpark less suited to offense.

Richie Sexson: In a basically risk free move, the Yankees signed Richie Sexson. From a fantasy perspective, this has little meaning. Sexson should not play enough to matter. In fact, the biggest effect is that Wilson Betemit loses whatever value he had. From a real baseball perspective, using Sexson against LHP and as a fielding sub makes a lot of sense. Yankee fans ? be happy. Roto players, this is meaningless. Next.

And finally, more musings from the Carlton the Doorman of fantasy sports -- Schultz Says: "There has always been a hackneyed axiom that whenever a pitcher changes leagues, his value skyrockets. the best examples of this include Rick Sutcliffe's transformation after being traded from the Indians to the Cubs and pretty much Kevin Brown's entire career. The cliche still kicks around these days despite the fact that the main reason for its validity - that hitters are seeing the pitcher for the first time - no longer remains quite an issue. Now that there's interleague play, pitchers switching leagues aren't as much of a mystery as they may have been in the past. However, cliches are cliches because at the core there is an eternal truth to them and the one we are discussing is no different. Essentially, this paragraph relates more to Joe Blanton then it does to C.C. Sabathia and Rich Harden. The latter two were pretty damn good before being traded and even though their value increases, it wasn't as if they were toiling in anonymity. On the other hand, Blanton, who I have always thought had potential, may have lucked into becoming a profitable roto-commodity.

Blanton's uptick is likely to come at the expense of Mr. Minor League Brett Myers. His troubles have been ballyhooed and bellyached about for weeks and I have nothing new to add . . . except this. Perhaps we should start a new cliche: don't bank on pitchers the season after they get arrested for beating their wife. In the tmz age that we're now living in, this one should be pretty easy to keep track of.

In putting together the All-Schultz teams for last week, I overlooked someone for the all-patience team: Justin Upton. Even before Glenn mentioned him at the end of the column, I realized that he should have been on that list instead of a tired Rocco Baldelli joke. But then again, who doesn't like a good Rocco Baldelli joke. Did you hear the one where a priest, rabbi and Rocco Baldelli walk into a bar . . . Oh, you have, I'll stop here then. I know they aren't as funny as Kei Igawa jokes"

Response: That is right ? another week without Igawa is a good week! Seriously, as noted above, I disagree with Schultz about Blanton. I say avoid him. We shall see.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Brewers Add Durham
No doubt thrilled with the early results from the CC Sabathia trade, the Brewers added another veteran Sunday by acquiring Ray Durham from the Giants for a pair of marginal prospects. At 36 years old Durham has lost several steps defensively, but he's bounced back from a career-worst season to hit .293/.385/.414 in 87 games this year. Aside from a little action at designated hitter Durham's 14-year career includes a grand total of one inning played away from second base.

In other words, unless the Brewers brought in Durham to pinch-hit Rickie Weeks' job is in serious jeopardy. Weeks appeared to have turned the corner last year when he hit .273/.442/.553 with 11 homers, 15 steals, and 44 runs in 43 games after returning from a midseason demotion to Triple-A, but has hit just .218/.322/.367 in 79 games this year. Manager Ned Yost said Sunday that Weeks remains the starter, but added that he'll try to play Durham "a couple of days a week."

With Durham out of the picture the Giants may give Eugenio Velez a chance to replace him. He's struggled in the majors thus far, hitting just .221/.276/.359 in 156 plate appearances, but is a .295/.342/.450 hitter in 446 minor-league games, including .310/.372/.509 in 42 games at Triple-A this season. Velez doesn't project as an impact hitter, but as a legitimate 50-steal threat with world-class speed he'll merely need to be decent offensively to receive regular at-bats.

While the clock ticks on Weeks' days as a starter and perhaps even his time in Milwaukee, here are some other notes from around baseball ?

* Cliff Lee came out of nowhere to begin the season 6-0 with a 0.67 ERA, but when he had a brief rough patch from mid-May through early June many people incorrectly assumed that he was crashing back down to earth without closely examining his performance. Despite allowing 18 runs over a four-start stretch Lee's secondary stats remained strong and suggested that his great early numbers were due to legitimate improvement (along with plenty of good fortune, of course).

Lee scattered 11 hits in Sunday's complete-game victory over the punchless Mariners and is 4-1 with a 2.06 ERA and 45-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 57 innings spread over his last eight starts. With Sunday's outing he improved to 13-2 with a 2.29 ERA overall, and it's a mistake to assume that he's due to collapse simply because of his mediocre track record prior to this year. Lee is missing more bats, throwing more strikes, and inducing more ground balls then ever before.

* Manny Parra got off to a rough start after grabbing a rotation spot coming out of spring training, but has quietly turned things around in a big way while Sabathia and Sheets get all the attention in Milwaukee. Parra held the Giants to two runs over 7.2 innings Sunday for his ninth win of the season. Since beginning the year with a 5.79 ERA through seven starts, Parra has gone 8-0 with a 2.76 ERA and 61 strikeouts in 75 innings spread over a dozen starts. Not a bad No. 3 starter.

* David Ortiz began his minor-league rehab assignment by homering in each of his first three games at Triple-A, including a 420-foot bomb Saturday. Ortiz took Sunday off and is expected to come off the disabled list Friday, although a couple more games with a homer could convince the Red Sox to move up his timetable a bit. Ortiz has already missed 42 games since injuring his wrist on May 31, but was on fire prior to the injury and appears to have quickly found his swing.

* Justin Verlander turned in yet another impressive start Sunday, holding the Orioles to one run while coming up one out short of a complete game. Once 1-7 with a 6.05 ERA, Verlander has gone 7-2 with a 2.53 ERA in a dozen starts since then while allowing more than three runs just once during that stretch. Now that his ERA is below 4.00 for the first since last season he ceases being a great buy-low candidate, but regular readers of this column have had plenty of warning.

* Josh Johnson has come back strong from Tommy John surgery, turning in his second straight solid outing Sunday by holding the high-scoring Phillies to two runs over 6.2 innings. He pitched well during a five-start minor-league rehab assignment and has posted a 10-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 11.2 innings with the Marlins, all while actually throwing slightly harder than he did prior to going under the knife. He's still risky, but Johnson looks like a good gamble in NL-only leagues.

* No doubt inspired by me picking him as a buy-low target for the second half in this space last week, Alex Rios homered Sunday for the first time since June 24 and just the second time since May 2. With just five homers overall he's on pace to fall about 15 long balls short of last season's career-best total, but Rios has made up for the lack of power by already setting a career-high in steals, swiping his 24th bag Sunday. He's hitting .315 since June 1 and the power is coming.

AL Quick Hits: J.J. Putz (elbow) returned from the disabled list Sunday with a scoreless inning of relief, but hasn't reclaimed the closer role from Brandon Morrow yet ? Andy Pettitte held the A's to one run over eight innings Sunday, racking up a season-high nine strikeouts while winning for the sixth time in eight outings ? Kelly Shoppach went deep Sunday, giving him six homers and 18 RBIs in 29 games since Victor Martinez landed on the DL ? Vicente Padilla tossed seven shutout innings Sunday in his return from the DL, giving him a 1.29 ERA in three starts against the Twins compared to a 5.11 mark in 16 starts versus everyone else ? Thanks to Minnesota's lineup being helpless against Padilla, Scott Baker took a tough-luck loss Sunday despite holding the league's highest-scoring team to one run over eight innings ? Jermaine Dye exited Sunday's game in the fourth inning after taking a curveball off the knee ? After three appearances out of the bullpen at Triple-A, Justin Masterson rejoined the Red Sox as a reliever Sunday ? Carlos Silva left Sunday's game in the fourth inning with back stiffness, but not before allowing four runs.
www.newyorkmets.ws
NL Quick Hits: Brandon Webb tossed eight innings of one-run ball Sunday, but got stuck with a no-decision when Brandon Lyon imploded in the ninth inning ? Mark Teixeira said Saturday that he doesn't expect to be traded and then smacked a pair of homers Sunday to give him nine long balls in his last 22 games ? Jesus Flores notched five singles Sunday, raising his average from .270 to .288 ? Jaime Garcia made his first MLB start Sunday, allowing three runs in five innings against the Padres ? Zach Duke was pounded for nine runs Sunday at Coors Field and has now allowed 19 runs over his last 13.1 innings ? After missing the All-Star game with the flu, Tim Lincecum tied a season-high by allowing five runs in Sunday's loss ? [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4048"]Ryan Braun[/URL] homered just three times in April, but took Lincecum deep Sunday and has 21 homers in 69 games since May 1 ? Troy Glaus had just two homers through his first 55 games, but after going deep Sunday now has 16 homers in his last 43 games ? Chris Snyder returned from the disabled list Sunday after sitting out three weeks with a fractured testicle. www.atlantabraves.ws

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Midseason Top 150 Prospects
Up this week is the Midseason Top 150 Prospects article. With one exception (Taylor Teagarden is expected to be sent down this week), only those prospects currently in the minors and with future rookie eligibility still intact qualify for the list below. Also, I'm not including any 2008 draftees. As a result, this list is a whole lot weaker than the preseason one. Anyone not moving up is definitely moving down.

Writeups are included for the top 25. Beginning Tuesday, I'll write up five additional prospects per day on the blog.

Click here to go to the Strike Zone Blog

2008 Midseason Top 150 Prospects

1. David Price - LHP Rays - DOB: 08/26/85 - ETA: Aug. 2008
Previous rankings: 2008 #7

4-0, 1.82 ERA, 28 H, 37/7 K/BB in 34 2/3 IP (A+ Vero Beach)
4-0, 2.03 ERA, 26 H, 25/10 K/BB in 31 IP (AA Montgomery)

That Price went down with an elbow injury before throwing his first professional pitch was more than a little worrisome, but he's been brilliant since returning in late May, and as long as the Rays were being completely upfront in calling the injury a strained muscle, there's no reason to look at him as more of a health concern going forward than the typical 22-year-old pitcher. Price is on his way to showing above average command to go along with his dominant fastball-slider combination, so he could prove to be better than Scott Kazmir. The Rays might add him to their rotation next month.

2. Clayton Kershaw - LHP Dodgers - DOB: 03/19/88 - ETA: Aug. 2008
Previous rankings: 2007 #40, mid-2007 #9, 2008 #6

2-3, 1.91 ERA, 39 H, 59/19 K/BB in 61 1/3 IP (AA Jacksonville)
0-2, 4.42 ERA, 39 H, 33/24 K/BB in 38 2/3 IP (NL Los Angeles)

Kershaw spent most of 2007 in the Midwest League and walked five batters per nine innings, yet there was a lot of sentiment for giving him a rotation spot coming out of spring training. He went on to receive his first chance in late May and demonstrated that he still wasn't quite ready. Subpar command is the only thing holding him back. With a 95-mph fastball and a curve that's about as nasty as any in baseball, Kershaw has even more upside than Price. He just needs to throw more strikes. Right now, he's about where Chad Billinglsey was in 2006. Clearly, the Dodgers should put him in the pen next spring and sign Brett Tomko to become their fifth starter.

3. Colby Rasmus - OF Cardinals - DOB: 08/11/86 - ETA: May 2009
Previous rankings: 2006 #135, mid-2006 #47, 2007 #27, mid-2007 #11, 2008 #2

.249/.351/.401, 11 HR, 36 RBI, 69/49 K/BB, 13 SB in 313 AB (AAA Memphis)

The belief was that Rasmus had a shot at a starting job this spring and he actually had a big March while vying for the opening in center field, but the Cardinals sent him down anyway and a typically slow start followed. Unfortunately, it took him longer than expected to pull out of it, and after he finally did explode with a .333/.441/.535 line in June, he ended up missing the first 2 ? weeks of July with a strained groin. Rasmus doesn't lose much ground here, though. He was never a very good bet for major league success this season anyway. He still could have a future as an All-Star after erasing doubts regarding his ability to stay in center field. He should possess 30-homer ability by the time he reaches his prime seasons.

4. Matt Wieters - C Orioles - DOB: 05/21/86 - ETA: June 2009
Previous rankings: 2008 #16

.345/.448/.576, 15 HR, 40 RBI, 47/44 K/BB, 1 SB in 229 AB (A+ Frederick)
.361/.439/.569, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 11/10 K/BB, 0 SB in 72 AB (AA Bowie)

Drafting aggressively for once, the Orioles grabbed Wieters with the fifth overall selection last year and gave him $6 million to sign just before the Aug. 15 deadline. It could go down as the team's best investment of the decade. Wieters has been even better than anticipated offensively, though he really should have been in Double-A all along, and his defensive reputation wasn't inflated at all. While he probably won't hit for average like this in the majors, he has legitimate 20-25 homer potential and he draws walks at a very good clip. He might already be the best catcher in the organization. However, with Ramon Hernandez signed for 2009 and possessing little trade value, there's no guarantee that he'll open next season in the majors.

5. Matt LaPorta - OF Indians - DOB: 01/08/85 - ETA: Sept. 2008
Previous rankings: 2008 #14

.288/.402/.576, 20 HR, 66 RBI, 63/45 K/BB in 302 AB (AA Huntsville)
.375/.375/.563, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 4/0 K/BB in 16 AB (AA Akron)

Baseball teams still aren't allowed to trade draft picks, but the Brewers certainly had their eyes open to the possibility of dealing LaPorta from the moment they made him the seventh overall selection last season. Price, Wieters and perhaps Rick Porcello have to be the only other 2007 first-rounders Cleveland would have looked at as a fair return for CC Sabathia, and all three of them cost much more than LaPorta in the form of a signing bonus. The Indians have left LaPorta in the outfield since picking him up, but he's likely to overtake Ryan Garko next year and establish himself as the team's long-term first baseman. He gives it his all, but he just doesn't have the range to be of much use in left or right. His bat could make him an All-Star in his best years. Besides the obvious 30- to 35-homer power, he possesses a fine eye at the plate that could lead to OBPs in the .380-.400 range.

6. Max Scherzer - RHP Diamondbacks - DOB: 07/27/84 - ETA: Aug. 2008
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #12, 2008 #31

0-0, 2.84 ERA, 16 H, 43/6 K/BB in 25 1/3 IP (AAA Tucson)
0-2, 2.90 ERA, 25 H, 33/14 K/BB in 31 IP (Arizona)

Scherzer was unbelievable in April, amassing a 1.17 ERA in four starts for Tucson. He allowed 12 hits, walked three and struck out 38 in 23 innings. A promotion to the majors followed, and Scherzer continued to impress. However, the Diamondbacks decided they didn't want to use him exclusively as a reliever, and after they sent him down, he hurt his shoulder. He's now missed a month with what the team has called fatigue, but he is expected back soon. Scherzer throws 93-95 mph as a starter and harder as a reliever. His slider is an outstanding strikeout pitch, and he's made definite progress with his change, which should guarantee that he's a starter for the long term. If there's nothing structurally wrong with his shoulder -- and the Diamondbacks don't think there is -- then he could play a big role come August and September. He's on his way to becoming a No. 2 starter.

7. Elvis Andrus - SS Rangers - DOB: 08/26/88 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: 2006 #110, mid-2006 #96, 2007 #129, mid-2007 #109, 2008 #30

.291/.350/.346, 1 HR, 39 RBI, 62/24 K/BB, 37 SB in 309 AB (AA Frisco)

Andrus is more than merely holding his own lately. The Texas League's youngest player is hitting .327 in 119 at-bats since returning from a fractured finger last month. He's also swiped 10 bases in his last 10 games. Andrus is still figuring out exactly what he can do on a baseball field. He's on his way to becoming an above average defender at shortstop and his swing is starting to result in fewer grounders and more liners. He's never been one to be blown away by fastballs. With 12 homers in more than 1,400 professional at-bats and just 13 extra-base hits total this year, he still isn't showing any real power. However, that's perfectly acceptable at age 19. At worst, he figures to be good for 10-15 homers per year in the majors by the time he's in his mid-20s. The Rangers will have reason to move Michael Young back to second or to third in 2010.

8. Cameron Maybin - OF Marlins - DOB: 04/04/87 - ETA: May 2009
Previous rankings: 2006 #79, mid-2006 #36, 2007 #18, mid-2007 #6, 2008 #9

.265/.357/.461, 12 HR, 38 RBI, 99/43 K/BB, 17 SB in 306 AB (AA Carolina)

Maybin can go head-to-head with any prospect in the minors when it comes to tools, and it's not like he's failed to perform: he had a 932 OPS in 91 minor league games last year, and he's currently at 818 as a 21-year-old in Double-A. However, his strikeout rate is more of a concern than ever. He's at 99 this year even through he's missed the last 2 ? weeks with a sore back. Maybin offers 30-homer potential and great defense in center field. However, he may not be a top-of-the-order guy. The speed is there and he does walk quite a bit, but he's going to have a very difficult time hitting for average in the majors as often as he swings and misses. Perhaps it's something that will work itself out over time. By showing more patience with him than expected -- there appeared to be a very good chance that Maybin would be in center field on Opening Day -- the Marlins have given him his best chance of success.

9. Jason Heyward - OF Braves - DOB: 08/09/89 - ETA: 2011
Previous rankings: 2008 #47

.324/.388/.464, 8 HR, 43 RBI, 58/38 K/BB, 15 SB in 336 AB (A- Rome)

The first of four Braves outfield prospects in the top 150, Heyward has displayed legitimate star potential since being selected 14th overall in the 2007 draft. The 18-year-old features an advanced approach at the plate, and he's only going to get stronger. It's reasonable to think he'll have 35-homer seasons in the majors. His speed will probably evaporate with time, but the Braves were already looking at him as a corner outfielder when they drafted him. He handles breaking balls quite well for someone his age, and lefty-lefty matchups have posed him no problems so far. He could start moving quickly next year.

10. Rick Porcello - RHP Tigers - DOB: 12/27/88 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: 2008 #17

5-6, 2.97 ERA, 88 H, 53/26 K/BB in 94 IP (A+ Lakeland)

Had money not been an issue, Porcello likely would have been the second or third pick in the 2007 draft. Since it was, he slipped to the Tigers at No. 27. It took a $7.3 million bonus to land him, but the Tigers don't regret it, especially since he's their one top prospect left after the Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria deals. Porcello, though, hasn't been overpowering as a pro. Billed as a mid-90s guy coming out of high school, he's usually been in the 91-94 mph range with his fastball in the FSL. Fortunately, he does get sinking movement on the heater and he has three complimentary pitches, including a plus curveball. Because of his ability to induce grounders, he still appears to possess No. 2-starter ability.

11. Fernando Martinez - OF Mets - DOB: 10/10/88 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: mid-2006 #80, 2007 #10, mid-2007 #8, 2008 #12

.462/.500/.692, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 2/0 K/BB, 0 SB in 13 AB (R GCL Mets)
.292/.333/.421, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 51/13 K/BB, 5 SB in 233 AB (AA Binghamton)

With a .328 average in 119 at-bats since the beginning of May, it seems like Martinez is starting to get a handle on Double-A pitching. He got off to another slow start in April, and 32 of his 53 strikeouts came in the first month of the season. He's made adjustments versus breaking balls since, and he's collecting a lot of singles as a result. His power stroke isn't there yet at age 19, and it's likely similar adjustment periods are in store when he's promoted to Triple-A and later the majors. However, he remains an elite prospect with All-Star upside. He should possess the power to his 30 homers per year, and he projects as an above average defender in right field.

12. Travis Snider - OF Blue Jays - DOB: 02/02/88 - ETA: Aug. 2009
Previous rankings: 2007 #71, mid-2007 #43, 2008 #24

.279/.333/.557, 4 HR, 7 RBI, 22/5 K/BB, 1 SB in 61 AB (A+ Dunedin)
.263/.337/.454, 14 HR, 57 RBI, 101/32 K/BB, 1 SB in 304 AB (AA New Hampshire)

For a 20-year-old in Double-A, Snider has a nice enough line. However, his strikeout total is even more extreme than Maybin's. He's fanned 123 times in 97 games this year, and he's also walked less frequently as the year has gone on. There's still an awful lot to like about his bat. Snider generates big-time power without resorting to a particularly long swing, and he's not guilty of trying to pull everything. He doesn't offer much on defense or on the basepaths, so his bat will have to carry him, and he'll probably struggle against left-handers early on in his major league career. I had thought he might be ready to assume a lineup spot in Toronto on Opening Day 2009, but it looks like he'll need at least an additional half year in the minors next season.

13. Austin Jackson - OF Yankees - DOB: 02/01/87 - ETA: June 2009
Previous rankings: 2008 #35

.290/.368/.444, 8 HR, 55 RBI, 73/48 K/BB, 14 SB in 383 AB (AA Trenton)

Jackson never could master in the Sally League in a year and a half at the level, but in 163 games at Single-A Tampa and Trenton since his promotion last year, he's hit .312 with 41 doubles, 11 triples and 18 homers. He's also displayed a surprisingly strong walk rate this year. On defense, he has the range to play center and a very good arm. He may eventually need to move to right, but he'll probably be an upgrade over Melky Cabrera with the glove when he arrives in New York. The Yankees could deal Cabrera and let Jackson compete for the job next spring. Look at him as a 20-homer guy with the ability to hit for average.

14. Michael Bowden - RHP Red Sox - DOB: 09/09/86 - ETA: May 2009
Previous rankings: 2007 #97, mid-2007 #35, 2008 #65

9-4, 2.33 ERA, 72 H, 101/24 K/BB in 104 1/3 IP (AA Portland)

Bowden also got off to a great start last year, amassing a 1.37 ERA in eight starts at the extreme offensive environment at Single-A Lancaster, but he was mediocre after a subsequent promotion to Double-A. Eastern League hitters gave him no trouble this year, and he was just moved up to Triple-A last week. There was some concern that Bowden's delivery would lead to arm woes, but he's stayed healthy to date. Bowden has shown 91-95 mph velocity with more consistency this year, and his curveball is as much of a strikeout pitch as ever. He is a flyball pitcher, but since he doesn't walk a lot of batters, the homers he allows should be solo shots. He's shaping up as a No. 2 or No. 3 starter.

15. Mat Gamel - 3B Brewers - DOB: 07/26/85 - ETA: May 2009
Previous rankings: none

.370/.429/.597, 15 HR, 81 RBI, 74/40 K/BB, 5 SB in 395 AB (AA Huntsville)

Gamel has the stick of a top-10 prospect, but with anything more than batting gloves on his hands, he scarcely resembles a major leaguer. Especially now that LaPorta is gone, the Brewers have good reason to try him in the outfield. While he's a fair enough athlete, there's simply no way he's making it at third base. Gamel's bat should be ready during the first half of next year, assuming that it isn't already. The left-handed hitter makes an awful lot of hard contact and could settle in as a 25-homer guy. He's hit .398 against lefties this year, so it doesn't appear that he'll need to be platooned. The Brewers probably won't be willing to move Corey Hart to center field to make room for him, but he could be the first player called on in the event of an injury next year.

<!--RW-->

16. Jeremy Hellickson - RHP Rays - DOB: 04/08/87 - ETA: Aug. 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #68, 2008 #68

7-1, 2.00 ERA, 64 H, 83/5 K/BB in 76 2/3 IP (A+ Vero Beach)
0-3, 4.88 ERA, 35 H, 20/3 K/BB in 27 2/3 IP (AA Montgomery)

Hellickson's walk rate has gone from good to awesome, and he's emerged as a stellar prospect as a result. 13:1 strikeout-to-walk ratios in the minors aren't unprecedented, but Hellickson isn't just a strike-thrower. He's in the low-90s consistently with his fastball, and his curveball should prove to be a fine major league pitch. His changeup still does need some work. A flyball pitcher, he'll likely always be prone to the home run ball. However, he looks like a particularly good bet to become a No. 3 starter anyway.

17. Trevor Cahill - RHP Athletics - DOB: 03/01/88 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: 2008 #137

5-4, 2.78 ERA, 52 H, 103/31 K/BB in 87 1/3 IP (A+ Stockton)
4-1, 2.67 ERA, 16 H, 23/11 K/BB in 114 1/3 IP (AA Midland)

The numbers are now impossible to ignore. Cahill, a 2006 second-round pick, is limiting minor leaguers to a .174 average, striking out three for every one he walks and getting 2 ? outs on the ground for each one through the air. He's still doing it with a fairly underwhelming fastball. He can work at 92-94 mph on some days, but he's just as often at 89-92 mph. Fortunately, he gets plenty of movement on his heater, and his curveball is an excellent secondary pitch. The package shouldn't make him a major league ace, but as well as his stuff has held up in Double-A so far, there's now reason to think he'll be a No. 2. I do worry a bit about his health, so I'm keeping him below Bowden and Hellickson.

18. Carlos Carrasco - RHP Phillies - DOB: 03/21/87 - ETA: April 2009
Previous rankings: 2007 #93, mid-2007 #29, 2008 #48

5-7, 4.02 ERA, 101 H, 95/40 K/BB in 103 IP (AA Reading)

Carrasco hasn't had the same kind of breakthrough season as some of the pitchers ahead of him, but he is making steady progress. Following a midseason promotion, he had a 49/46 K/BB ratio in 70 1/3 IP for Reading last year. However, he's back displaying nice peripherals now. One key has been that he is more comfortable working from the stretch than ever before. Carrasco throws in the low-90s and has a terrific changeup that serves to keep left-handers off balance. His curveball is a third major league pitch. He's on his way to becoming a third starter or maybe a little something more.

19. Andrew McCutchen - OF Pirates - DOB: 10/10/86 - ETA: June 2009
Previous rankings: 2006 #87, mid-2006 #64, 2007 #25, mid-2007 #18, 2008 #19

.282/.371/.405, 8 HR, 35 RBI, 62/47 K/BB, 25 SB in 358 AB (AAA Indianapolis)

McCutchen might look like a better prospect right now if the Pirates didn't have him skip high-A ball in 2007. He's put up perfectly adequate numbers at Double-A last year and in Triple-A this season, but he hasn't excelled at any point. His biggest strength remains his defense in center field. McCutchen has outstanding speed and a decent enough arm. Offensively, most of his production continues to come versus lefties. The right-handed hitter had a 642 OPS versus righties in Double-A last year and he's at 731 right now. He's also failed to establish himself as a premier basestealer, and he doesn't figure to add a lot of power. He makes enough solid contact that he seems practically certain to develop into a long-term regular. However, his upside is in question.

20. Neftali Feliz - RHP Rangers - DOB: 05/02/88 - ETA: Aug. 2009
Previous rankings: none

6-3, 2.52 ERA, 55 H, 106/28 K/BB in 82 IP (A- Clinton)
2-0, 2.65 ERA, 11 H, 17/6 K/BB in 17 IP (AA Frisco)

It was well known that the Rangers landed a top-notch talent when they picked up Feliz as part of the Mark Teixeira deal, but no one could have predicted that he'd come this quickly. The 6-foot-3, 180-pound Dominican was still in Rookie ball when the deal was struck, and he entered this year having thrown 71 1/3 innings in two seasons in the U.S. Now he's in Double-A after being promoted earlier this month. Feliz has a .193 average against this year, and he's surrendered only two homers in 99 innings. He overpowers hitters with a 94-98 mph fastball, and both his curveball and changeup have really come along since he first debuted. I pegged his ETA as 2011 in the Rangers' preseason top 10, but it now looks like there's a real chance of him contributing next year.

21. Madison Bumgarner - LHP Giants - DOB: 08/01/89 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: none

9-3, 1.79 ERA, 80 H, 104/16 K/BB in 95 1/3 IP (A- Augusta)

Bumgarner is another who could be moving quickly, but the Giants have restrained themselves and kept him in the Sally League despite his brilliant showing. In his last 15 starts, he's allowed a total of nine earned runs and posted a 102/14 K/BB ratio. Bumgarner, the 10th overall pick in the 2007 draft, throws 92-95 mph and could add some additional velocity. He's still a rather raw prospect -- he needs to tighten up his curve and continue to work on his changeup -- but that his command is already this good at age 18 is an extremely encouraging sign.

22. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=1351"]Brandon Wood[/URL] - SS/3B Angels - DOB: 03/02/85 - ETA: April 2009
Previous rankings: 2005 #149, mid 2005 #13, 2006 #3, mid-2006 #2, 2007 #6, mid-2007 #10, 2008 #18

.274/.343/.541, 17 HR, 49 RBI, 66/24 K/BB, 3 SB in 259 AB (AAA Salt Lake)
.125/.164/.188, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 21/2 K/BB, 0 SB in 64 AB (AL Los Angeles)

Wood's stock is clearly tumbling, yet the shift back to shortstop this year has helped his cause a bit. He never required the switch to third in the first place, but the Angels moved him because it was assumed he'd be ready while Orlando Cabrera was still the team's shortstop. Wood doesn't have great range, but he's a steady defender with a strong arm. While it's beginning to look like he'll never meet expectations offensively, it should be worth living with mediocre OBPs when he's hitting 25 homers per year in his prime. At worst, he'd seem to be the new Pedro Feliz. He might yet turn out to be an above average major league shortstop, but he will fall out of the top 40 in the 2009 list unless he can put together a strong second half.

23. Wade Davis - RHP Rays - DOB: 09/07/85 - ETA: June 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2006 #79, 2007 #83, mid-2007 #24, 2008 #22

9-6, 3.85 ERA, 104 H, 81/42 K/BB in 107 2/3 IP (AA Montgomery)

No longer joined at the hip with Jake McGee after the left-hander underwent Tommy John surgery, Davis was the first of the Rays' new wave of pitching prospects to reach Triple-A, receiving his promotion over the weekend. He actually pitched worse in Double-A this year than he did after his midseason promotion last year (7-3, 3.15 ERA in 80 IP), so he's essentially holding steady on this list. Davis throws 91-94 mph and mixes in a curveball, a slider and a change. The curve is his best secondary pitch and gets him a significant number of his strikeouts. His command still leaves something to be desired in his fifth season as a pro, and that he's regressed a bit this year could cost him a midseason callup. He still has a promising future as a middle-of-the-rotation starter.

24. Dexter Fowler - OF Rockies - DOB: 03/22/86 - ETA: May 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2006 #110, 2007 #79, mid-2007 #80, 2008 #66

.329/.421/.508, 9 HR, 56 RBI, 76/55 K/BB, 17 SB in 368 AB (AA Tulsa)

Fowler was set back by injuries, most notably a broken hamate bone, and hit just two homers in 352 at-bats between Single-A Modesto and the Arizona Fall League in 2007. Fully healthy this season, his modest power has returned and he's getting on base more than ever. Fowler is a switch-hitter with excellent range in center field. He strikes out a bit more than one would like from a potential leadoff man, but he makes up for it with a strong walk rate. The belief that he is injury prone knocks him down about five spots here. He'd seem to have more offensive potential than McCutchen if he can stay healthy. Besides improving his basestealing technique, there's not a lot left for him to work on in the minors. He could make Willy Taveras expendable this winter.

25. Reid Brignac - SS Rays - DOB: 01/16/86 - ETA: July 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2006 #83, 2007 #31, mid-2003 #23, 2008 #38

.263/.313/.423, 7 HR, 39 RBI, 71/23 K/BB, 4 SB in 293 AB (AAA Durham)
.000/.091/.000, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 5/1 K/BB, 0 SB in 10 AB (Tampa Bay)

Jason Bartlett looked like a one-year stopgap as a starting shortstop when picked up in the Delmon Young deal, but it no longer appears that Brignac will be ready to assume the position at the beginning of 2009. It's not a huge problem, given that Brignac is still only 22 years old. The left-handed hitter has 20- to 25-homer potential, and he should also supply plenty of line-drive doubles. His defense at shortstop won't win him any Gold Gloves, but he has displayed enough range to keep himself at the position. By the time he's 30, he may require a move to second or third. He's due to spend a second season in Triple-A in 2009.

26. Alcides Escobar - SS Brewers - DOB: 12/16/86 - ETA: June 2009
Previous rankings: none

27. Taylor Teagarden - C Rangers - DOB: 12/21/83 - ETA: April 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #135, 2008 #34

28. Nick Adenhart - RHP Angels - DOB: 08/24/86 - ETA: May 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2006 #21, 2007 #21, mid-2007 #22, 2008 #28

29. Gio Gonzalez - LHP Athletics - DOB: 09/19/85 - ETA: Sept. 2008
Previous rankings: mid-2005 #81, 2006 #84, mid-2006 #62, 2007 #78, mid-2007 #21, 2008 #33

30. Mike Moustakas - 3B Royals - DOB: 09/11/88 - ETA: 2011
Previous rankings: none, 2008 #51

31. Tommy Hanson - RHP Braves - DOB: 08/26/86 - ETA: May 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #120, 2008 #105

32. Adrian Cardenas - 2B Athletics - DOB: 10/10/87 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #93, 2008 #56

33. Tim Alderson - RHP Giants - DOB: 11/03/88 - ETA: Aug. 2009
Previous rankings: none

34. Carlos Triunfel - SS Mariners - DOB: 02/27/90 - ETA: 2011
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #28, 2008 #26

35. Jarrod Parker - RHP Diamondbacks - DOB: 11/24/88 - ETA: 2011
Previous rankings: 2008 #63

36. Sean Doolittle - 1B Athletics - DOB: 09/26/86 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: none

37. Michael Burgess - OF Nationals - DOB: 10/20/88 - ETA: 2012
Previous rankings: none

38. Brett Anderson - LHP Athetics - DOB: 02/01/88 - ETA: June 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #72, 2008 #61

39. Chris Marrero - 1B/OF Nationals - DOB: 07/02/88 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: 2007 #117, mid-2007 #45, 2008 #36

40. Gorkys Hernandez - OF Braves - DOB: 09/07/87 - ETA: 2011
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #79, 2008 #76

41. Angel Villalona - 1B Giants - DOB: 08/13/90 - ETA: 2012
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #82, 2008 #64

42. Chris Tillman - RHP Orioles - DOB: 04/15/88 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: 2008 #132

43. Lars Anderson - 1B Red Sox - DOB: 09/25/87 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #74, 2008 #46

44. Josh Vitters - 3B Cubs - DOB: 08/27/89 - ETA: 2012
Previous rankings: 2008 #43

45. Todd Frazier - SS/OF Reds - DOB: 02/12/86 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: 2008 #126

46. Wladimir Balentien - OF Mariners - DOB: 07/02/84 - ETA: April 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #39, 2008 #45

47. Daryl Thompson - RHP Reds - DOB: 11/02/85 - ETA: Aug. 2008
Previous rankings: none

48. Wes Hodges - 3B Indians - DOB: 09/14/84 - ETA: Aug. 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #94, 2008 #91

49. Desmond Jennings - OF Rays - DOB: 10/30/86 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #88, 2008 #57

50. Tyler Robertson - LHP Twins - DOB: 12/23/87 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: 2008 #119

<!--RW-->

51. Matt Antonelli - 2B Padres - DOB: 04/08/85 - ETA: July 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #63, 2008 #32

52. Stephen Marek - RHP Angels - DOB: 09/03/83 - ETA: May 2009
Previous rankings: none

53. James McDonald - RHP Dodgers - DOB: 10/19/84 - ETA: May 2009
Previous rankings: 2008 #73

54. Daniel Cortes - RHP Royals - DOB: 03/04/87 - ETA: Aug. 2009
Previous rankings: 2008 #79

55. Jess Todd - RHP Cardinals - DOB: 04/20/86 - ETA: Sept. 2008
Previous rankings: none

56. Phillipe Aumont - RHP Mariners - DOB: 11/18/87 - ETA: 2012
Previous rankings: 2008 #131

57. Jordan Schafer - OF Braves - DOB: 09/04/86 - ETA: April 2009
Previous rankings: 2008 #92

58. Bryan Anderson - C Cardinals - DOB: 12/16/86 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #85, 2008 #84

59. Chris Coghlan - 2B Marlins - DOB: 06/18/85 - ETA: Aug. 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #106, 2008 #85

60. Casey Weathers - RHP Rockies - DOB: 06/10/85 - ETA: April 2009
Previous rankings: 2008 #111

61. Jhoulys Chacin - RHP Rockies - DOB: 01/07/88 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: none

62. Jon Meloan - RHP Dodgers - DOB: 07/11/84 - ETA: Sept. 2008
Previous rankings: 2007 #112, mid-2007 #60, 2008 #69

63. Lou Marson - C Phillies - DOB: 06/26/86 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: none

64. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=2794"]Jordan Zimmermann[/URL] - RHP Nationals - DOB: 05/23/86 - ETA: June 2009
Previous rankings: none

65. Nick Weglarz - OF Indians - DOB: 12/16/87 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: 2008 #144

66. Henry Sosa - RHP Giants - DOB: 07/28/85 - ETA: June 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #58, 2008 #88

67. Jake McGee - LHP Rays - DOB: 08/06/86 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: mid-2006 #114, 2007 #91, mid-2007 #26, 2008 #23

68. Hank Conger - C Angels - DOB: 01/29/88 - ETA: 2011
Previous rankings: 2007 #60, mid-2007 #55, 2008 #78

69. Jake Arrieta - RHP Orioles - DOB: 03/06/86 - ETA: May 2009
Previous rankings: none

70. Will Inman - RHP Padres - DOB: 02/26/87 - ETA: April 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2006 #113, 2007 #73, mid-2007 #47, 2008 #93

71. Chris Parmelee - OF Twins - DOB: 02/24/88 - ETA: 2011
Previous rankings: 2007 #64, mid-2007 #56, 2008 #74

72. Jose Tabata - OF Yankees - DOB: 08/12/88 - ETA: 2011
Previous rankings: 2006 #136, mid-2006 #18, 2007 #17, mid-2007 #13, 2008 #27

73. Adam Miller - RHP Indians - DOB: 11/26/84 - ETA: July 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2004 #101, 2005 #8, mid-2005 #26, 2006 #35, mid-2006 #31, 2007 #22, mid-2007 #14, 2008 #42

74. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=778"]Chris Carter[/URL] - 1B Athletics - DOB: 12/18/86 - ETA: 2011
Previous rankings: 2008 #123

75. Brandon Erbe - RHP Orioles - DOB: 12/25/87 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: mid-2006 #82, 2007 #51, mid-2007 #54, 2008 #134

76. Trevor Crowe - OF Indians - DOB: 11/17/83 - ETA: June 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2006 #41, 2007 #43, mid-2007 #59, 2008 #89

77. Neil Walker - 3B Pirates - DOB: 09/10/85 - ETA: May 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2005 #129, 2006 #114, mid-2006 #107, 2007 #105, mid-2007 #30, 2008 #44

78. Sean Rodriguez - 2B Angels - DOB: 04/26/85 - ETA: Sept. 2008
Previous rankings: mid-2006 #125, 2007 #96, mid-2007 #69, 2008 #97

79. Jeff Niemann - RHP Rays - DOB: 02/28/83 - ETA: Sept. 2008
Previous rankings: 2005 #60, mid-2005 #74, 2006 #83, mid-2006 #49, 2007 #53, mid-2007 #32, 2008 #60

80. Angel Salome - C Brewers - DOB: 06/08/86 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: 2008 #150

81. Scott Elbert - LHP Dodgers - DOB: 05/13/85 - ETA: Aug. 2009
Previous rankings: 2006 #118, mid-2006 #37, 2007 #35, mid-2007 #46, 2008 #58

82. Kevin Mulvey - RHP Twins - DOB: 05/26/85 - ETA: May 2009
Previous rankings: 2008 #128

83. Michael Saunders - OF Mariners - DOB: 11/19/86 - ETA: June 2009
Previous rankings: none

84. Daniel Bard - RHP Red Sox - DOB: 06/25/85 - ETA: June 2009
Previous rankings: none

85. Jose Ceda - RHP Cubs - DOB: 01/28/87 - ETA: May 2009
Previous rankings: 2008 #146

86. Steve Pearce - 1B/OF Pirates - DOB: 04/13/83 - ETA: Aug. 2008
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #104, 2008 #52

87. Kasey Kiker - LHP Rangers - DOB: 11/19/87 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #53, 2008 #90

88. Ross Detwiler - LHP Nationals - DOB: 03/06/86 - ETA: July 2009
Previous rankings: 2008 #70

89. Jordan Walden - RHP Angels - DOB: 11/16/87 - ETA: 2011
Previous rankings: 2008 #141

90. Ben Revere - OF Twins - DOB: 05/03/88 - ETA: 2011
Previous rankings: none

91. Clayton Mortensen - RHP Cardinals - DOB: 04/10/85 - ETA: Aug. 2009
Previous rankings: 2008 #139

92. Jeff Manship - RHP Twins - DOB: 01/16/85 - ETA: July 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #70, 2008 #98

93. David Huff - LHP Indians - DOB: 08/22/84 - ETA: Sept. 2008
Previous rankings: none

94. Beau Mills - 1B/3B Indians - DOB: 08/15/86 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: 2008: #86

95. David Hernandez - RHP Orioles - DOB: 05/13/85 - ETA: June 2009
Previous rankings: none

96. Donald Veal - LHP Cubs - DOB: 09/18/84 - ETA: Aug. 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2006 #90, 2007 #69, mid-2007 #77, 2008 #122

97. Billy Rowell - 3B Orioles - DOB: 09/10/88 - ETA: 2011
Previous rankings: 2007 #57, mid-2007 #41, 2008 #62

98. Jon Niese - LHP Mets - DOB: 10/27/86 - ETA: June 2009
Previous rankings: none

99. Aaron Poreda - LHP White Sox - DOB: 10/01/86 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: 2008 #130

100. Mark Melancon - RHP Yankees - DOB: 03/28/85 - ETA: May 2009
Previous rankings: none

101. Brandon Jones - OF Braves - DOB: 12/10/83 - ETA: Sept. 2008
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #96, 2008 #82

102. Jeremy Jeffress - RHP Brewers - DOB: 09/21/87 - ETA: 2011
Previous rankings: 2007 #120, mid-2007 #77, 2008 #109

103. Drew Stubbs - OF Reds - DOB: 10/04/84 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: 2007 #111, mid-2007 #84, 2008 #110

104. Aaron Thompson - LHP Marlins - DOB: 02/28/87 - ETA: Aug. 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2006 #116, 2007 #104, mid-2007 #89, 2008 #80

105. Ruben Tejada - SS Mets - DOB: 09/01/89 - ETA: 2013
Previous rankings: 2008 #127

106. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=1739"]Henry Rodriguez[/URL] - RHP Athletics - DOB: 02/25/87 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: none

107. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=1554"]Mike Stanton[/URL] - OF Marlins - DOB: 11/08/89 - ETA: 2012
Previous rankings: none

108. Chorye Spoone - RHP Orioles - DOB: 09/16/85 - ETA: Aug. 2009
Previous rankings: 2008 #100

109. Nolan Reimold - OF Orioles - DOB: 10/12/83 - ETA: June 2009
Previous rankings: 2006 #144, mid-2006 #73, 2007 #103, mid-2007 #101, 2008 #112

110. Brett Cecil - LHP Blue Jays - DOB: 07/02/86 - ETA: June 2009
Previous rankings: none

111. Jason Donald - SS Phillies - DOB: 09/04/84 - ETA: July 2009
Previous rankings: none

112. Anthony Swarzak - RHP Twins - DOB: 09/10/85 - ETA: Aug. 2009
Previous rankings: 2007 #100, mid-2007 ---, 2008 #124

113. Ryan Kalish - OF Red Sox - DOB: 03/28/88 - ETA: 2011
Previous rankings: 2008 #106

114. Gerardo Parra - OF Diamondbacks - DOB: 05/06/87 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: 2008 #121

115. Adam Ottavino - RHP Cardinals - DOB: 11/22/85 - ETA: Aug. 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #111, 2008 #94

116. Andrew Lambo - OF Dodgers - DOB: 08/11/88 - ETA: 2011
Previous rankings: none

117. Eulogio De La Cruz - RHP Marlins - DOB: 03/12/84 - ETA: May 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #134, 2008 ---

118. Eric Patterson - 2B/OF Athletics - DOB: 04/08/83 - ETA: Sept. 2008
Previous rankings: 2007 #148, mid-2007 #121

119. Deolis Guerra - RHP Twins - DOB: 04/17/89 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: 2007 #87, mid-2007 #44, 2008 #67

120. Jesus Montero - C Yankees - DOB: 11/28/89 - ETA: 2012
Previous rankings: none

<!--RW-->

121. Justin Jackson - SS Blue Jays - DOB: 12/11/88 - ETA: 2011
Previous rankings: none

122. Hector Rondon - RHP Indians - DOB: 02/26/88 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: none

123. James Simmons - RHP Athletics - DOB: 09/26/86 - ETA: May 2009
Previous rankings: 2008 #145

124. Freddie Freeman - 1B Braves - DOB: 09/12/89 - ETA: 2012
Previous rankings: none

125. Charlie Zink - RHP Red Sox - DOB: 08/26/79 - ETA: May 2009
Previous rankings: none

126. Nate Schierholtz - OF Giants - DOB: 02/15/84 - ETA: Sept. 2008
Previous rankings: none

127. Carlos Rosa - RHP Royals - DOB: 09/21/84 - ETA: Sept. 2008
Previous rankings: none

128. Antonio Bastardo - LHP Phillies - DOB: 09/21/85 - ETA: July 2009
Previous rankings: none

129. Dan McCutchen - RHP Yankees - DOB: 09/26/82 - ETA: May 2009
Previous rankings: none

130. Engel Beltre - OF Rangers - DOB: 11/01/89 - ETA: 2012
Previous rankings: none

131. Taylor Green - 3B Brewers - DOB: 11/02/86 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: none

132. Chuck Lofgren - LHP Indians - DOB: 01/29/86 - ETA: May 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2006 #69, 2007 #46, mid-2007 #38, 2008 #83

133. Josh Bell - 3B Dodgers - DOB: 11/13/86 - ETA: 2011
Previous rankings: none

134. Alan Horne - RHP Yankees - DOB: 01/05/83 - ETA: June 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #148, 2008 #138

135. Peter Bourjos - OF Angels - DOB: 03/31/87 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: none

136. Jeff Larish - 1B Tigers - DOB: 10/11/82 - ETA: April 2009
Previous rankings: none

137. Scott Campbell - 2B Blue Jays - DOB: 09/25/84 - ETA: July 2009
Previous rankings: none

138. Mike Carp - 1B Mets - DOB: 06/30/86 - ETA: Aug. 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #124, 2008 ---

139. Blake Wood - RHP Royals - DOB: 08/08/85 - ETA: June 2009
Previous rankings: none

140. J.P. Arencibia - C Blue Jays - DOB: 01/05/86 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: none

141. Tyler Colvin - OF Cubs - DOB: 09/05/85 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #65, 2008 #104

142. Josh Roenicke - RHP Reds - DOB: 08/04/82 - ETA: Aug. 2008
Previous rankings: none

143. Josh Reddick - OF Red Sox - DOB: 02/19/87 - ETA: 2011
Previous rankings: none

144. Aaron Cunningham - OF Athletics - DOB: 04/24/86 - ETA: July 2009
Previous rankings: 2008 #148

145. Jamie Romak - OF Pirates - DOB: 09/30/85 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: none

146. Eduardo Morlan - RHP Rays - DOB: 03/01/86 - ETA: Aug. 2008
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #113, 2008 #117

147. Greg Halman - OF Mariners - DOB: 08/26/87 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: none

148. Joe Savery - LHP Phillies - DOB: 11/04/85 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: 2008 #115

149. Michael Hollimon - 2B/SS Tigers - DOB: 06/14/82 - ETA: April 2008
Previous rankings: none

150. Vin Mazzaro - RHP Athletics - DOB: 09/27/86 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: none

The Wrap-Up

Top 150 by Position

RHP - 55
LHP - 18
C - 8
1B - 8
2B - 6
3B - 8
SS - 9
OF - 38

Top 150 by League

AL - 84
NL - 66

Top 150 by Team

10 - Athletics
9 - Indians
8 - Orioles, Rays
7 - Angels, Twins
6 - Braves, Dodgers, Red Sox. Yankees
5 - Blue Jays, Brewers, Cardinals, Giants, Mariners, Marlins, Phillies, Rangers
4 - Cubs, Reds, Mets, Nationals, Pirates, Reds, Royals
3 - Diamondbacks, Tigers
2 - Padres
1 - White Sox
0 - Astros

Graduates (from 2008 preseason list)

1. Jay Bruce - OF Reds
3. Evan Longoria - 3B Rays
4. Clay Buchholz - RHP Red Sox
5. Joba Chamberlain - RHP Yankees
8. Daric Barton - 1B Athletics
10. Jacoby Ellsbury - OF Red Sox
11. Johnny Cueto - RHP Reds
13. Homer Bailey - RHP Reds
15. Andy LaRoche - 3B Dodgers
20. Chase Headley - OF/3B Padres
21. Joey Votto - 1B Reds
25. Franklin Morales - LHP Rockies
29. Ian Kennedy - RHP Yankees
37. Carlos Gonzalez - OF Athletics
39. Eric Hurley - RHP Rangers
40. Jeff Clement - C Mariners
41. Chris Volstad - RHP Marlins
49. Jed Lowrie - SS Red Sox
50. J.R. Towles - C Astros
53. Ian Stewart - 3B Rockies
54. Luke Hochevar - RHP Royals
55. Ryan Sweeney - OF Athletics
59. Geovany Soto - C Cubs
71. Jaime Garcia - LHP Cardinals
72. Justin Masterson - RHP Red Sox
75. Greg Reynolds - RHP Rockies
77. Chris Perez - RHP Cardinals
81. Brent Lillibridge - SS Braves
87. Jair Jurrjens - RHP Braves
95. Chris Davis - 1B Rangers
99. Matt Harrison - LHP Rangers
101. Garrett Olson - LHP Orioles
103. Aaron Laffey - LHP Indians
108. Sean Gallagher - RHP Cubs
113. Collin Balester - RHP Nationals
114. Chin-Lung Hu - SS Dodgers
116. Radhames Liz - RHP Orioles
118. Brandon Moss - OF Red Sox
120. Brian Barton - OF Cardinals
136. Justin Huber - 1B/OF Padres

Dropping off

96. Philip Humber - RHP Twins
102. Gaby Hernandez - RHP Marlins
107. Fautino De Los Santos - RHP Athletics
129. Joel Guzman - 3B/OF Rays
133. Felipe Paulino - RHP Astros
135. Charlie Haeger - RHP White Sox
140. Jack Egbert - RHP White Sox
142. Brad Lincoln - RHP Pirates
143. Chris Nelson - SS Rockies
147. Brett Sinkbeil - RHP Marlins
149. Chad Huffman - OF Padres

Ineligibles

Below are approximations of where some of the ineligible players would have ranked:

12. Chris Davis - 1B Rangers
14. Chris Volstad - RHP Marlins
15. Andy LaRoche - 3B Dodgers
16. Chase Headley - OF Padres
17. Justin Masterson - RHP Red Sox
18. Carlos Gonzalez - OF Athletics
20. Pedro Alvarez - 3B Pirates
25. Eric Hurley - RHP Rangers
30. Jeff Clement - C Mariners
30. Jed Lowrie - SS Red Sox
32. Buster Posey - C Giants
35. Jaime Garcia - LHP Cardinals
35. Ian Stewart - 3B Rockies
45. Ryan Tucker - RHP Marlins
50. Tim Beckham - SS Rays
55. Collin Balester - RHP Nationals
55. Justin Smoak - 1B Rangers
60. Max Ramirez - C Rangers
60. Yonder Alonso - 1B Reds
65. Jose Arrendondo - RHP Angels
70. Gordon Beckham - SS White Sox
75. Eric Hosmer - 1B Royals
85. Brian Matusz - LHP Orioles
90. Matt Harrison - LHP Rangers
90. Brett Wallace - 1B/3B Cardinals
115. Reese Havens - 2B/SS Mets
120. Charlie Morton - RHP Braves
125. Aaron Crow - RHP Nationals
130. Michael Inoa - RHP Athletics
140. Kyle Skipworth - C Marlins

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Wood Looking DL Bound Again
They're probably too modest to self-promote, but Rotoworld's football and basketball gurus were both interviewed recently, and Gregg Rosenthal and Steve Alexander each referred to their gig as a "dream job." Now, my "dream job" involves Keeley Hazell, suntan oil, and a photo shoot on a beach somewhere, although realistically it wouldn't be any worse without the actual photo shoot and the location probably doesn't matter a whole lot (assuming the benefits package is good).

Working at Rotoworld finishes a very close second to serving as Hazell's personal oil assistant, because admittedly this is a pretty sweet way to make a living. My favorite part of the Rosenthal-Alexander media blitz is that Gregg predictably picks the Patriots to win the Super Bowl while Steve sports a Colts t-shirt in the photo for his article in the Atlanta Journal Constitution. They're definitely the Tom Brady and Peyton Manning of Rotoworld, which makes me Tarvaris Jackson.

While Alexander sums up my take on the most crucial aspect of this job with "naps are very good" and Rosenthal becomes more careful what he wishes for after suggesting to me last week that Hazell deserved a Daily Dose mention, here are some notes from around baseball ?

* No official move has been made yet as of this writing, but Kerry Wood may be placed on the disabled list with a busted blister on his right index finger. Wood missed the All-Star game and hasn't pitched since July 11, but the Cubs are holding out hope that he can avoid the DL. With Wood likely out for at least the rest of this week, Carlos Marmol will take over as closer, which at one point would've been an opportunity for one of the league's top relievers to take center stage.

However, Marmol has struggled recently, perhaps because of his extreme early season workload. Through the end of May he had a 1.75 ERA and 54-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 36 innings while appearing in 29 of the Cubs' first 56 games. That put him on an 85-game, 105-inning pace that his right arm predictably hasn't been able to handle. Marmol has an 8.83 ERA and 16-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 17.1 innings since June 1.

* Since returning from the disabled list early last month Jorge Posada hit just .248/.380/.371 in 33 games, rarely started at catcher, and struggled mightily to control the running game when he was behind the plate, so the Yankees decided to place him back on the shelf Monday. Posada is set to undergo an MRI exam Tuesday and may require season-ending shoulder surgery, although it's possible that the Yankees would use him at designated hitter even if he's not able to catch.

Surgery would also put Posada's status for the start of next season in some doubt, so it's surely being viewed as a last resort. In the meantime, Jose Molina will continue to receive the bulk of the starts behind the plate, with Chad Moeller serving as his little-used backup. Catcher playing time is difficult to come by at this point in the season, but even as an everyday player Molina has very little fantasy potential. He's hitting .227/.266/.307 this season and .239/.276/.338 for his career.

* One of my favorite young sleeper candidates coming into the season, Adam Jones got off to a brutal start when he hit just .245/.292/.351 with two homers in 54 games through the end of May. Fortunately the Orioles showed patience with their new 22-year-old center fielder and he's turned things around since then. Jones homered Monday and is now 52-for-159 (.327) with four homers and four steals in 43 games since June 1, showing his long-term 20-20 potential.

* Sent back down to the minors earlier this month after going 0-2 with a 4.42 ERA in eight starts, Clayton Kershaw is now expected to recalled Tuesday to rejoin the Dodgers' rotation. Kershaw has allowed just two runs over 18 innings at Double-A since the demotion, but he was every bit as dominant before the initial call-up and the 20-year-old southpaw still figures to struggle with his command against major-league hitters. Expect inconsistency and good but not great numbers.

* Rich Harden is 2-for-2 turning in dominant starts for the Cubs after racking up 10 strikeouts over seven innings of one-run ball Monday, but took his first NL loss thanks to Randy Johnson's seven shutout frames. Harden has allowed one run while fanning 20 in 12.1 innings since being traded to the Cubs, which is little surprise given how well he pitched for the A's. He now has a 2.12 ERA and 112 strikeouts in 89.1 innings overall, and won't be stopped unless the injury bug bites again.

* Demoted to the minors on July 1, Brett Myers posted a 3.00 ERA and 28-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in four starts and was recalled Monday. He'll officially rejoin the Phillies' rotation Wednesday against the Mets and figures to improve upon his pre-demotion 5.84 ERA, but don't expect Myers to have a ton of success in the second half. Dating back to last year, he's 3-11 with a 6.31 ERA, 107-to-53 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and 29 homers allowed in 117 innings spread over 20 starts.

* Jon Lester scattered eight hits in 7.1 scoreless innings Monday against the Mariners, combining with Jonathan Papelbon on a shutout. Lester has now started six games this season in which the Red Sox shut out their opponent, which is pretty amazing given that 17 of the other 29 teams have fewer than six shutouts all year. Lester struggled some early on this season, but he's now 7-1 with a 2.50 ERA and 72-to-25 strikeout-to-walk in 100.2 innings spread over his last 15 starts.

AL Quick Hits: Scott Kazmir shut out the A's for seven innings Monday, bouncing back nicely from his unexpected appearance in the All-Star game ? Robinson Cano launched a mammoth homer into the upper deck Monday and now has 10 hits in his last four games ? After throwing five innings in a minor-league rehab start Saturday at Double-A, Fausto Carmona (hip) is slated to return from the disabled list this weekend ? Denard Span notched three hits Monday to raise his on-base percentage to .424, yet manager Ron Gardenhire refuses to yank Carlos Gomez and his putrid .281 OBP from the leadoff spot ? Manager Eric Wedge gave Jhonny Peralta a vote of confidence Sunday, saying: "He's our shortstop" and "I don't see us making any change any time soon" ? Expected to be held out until Friday, Johnny Damon (shoulder) instead came off the shelf Monday and started at designated hitter ? Jason Bartlett (knee) went through pregame workouts Monday and could come off the DL by Thursday ? Miguel Cabrera tied a pair of career-highs Monday with five hits and six RBIs.

NL Quick Hits: Alfonso Soriano (hand) went 0-for-2 with a walk in a minor-league rehab game Monday at rookie-ball and is hoping to rejoin the Cubs as soon as Thursday ? Rickie Weeks did his best to keep Ray Durham on the bench Monday, going 2-for-5 with a three-run homer for just his second long ball since May 22 ? Ken Griffey Jr. still sports his worst OPS since his rookie season, but blasted his 606th career homer Monday ? Getting a rare start over Russell Branyan against a right-hander Monday, Bill Hall went 3-for-5 with a homer ? Rafael Soriano returned from the disabled list Monday, but likely won't be in the mix for saves again unless Mike Gonzalez falters ? Troy Tulowitzki (hand) came off the shelf Monday, but it sounds like the Rockies may slowly ease him back into an everyday gig ? Jorge Campillo shut out the Marlins for seven innings Monday for his fifth victory, giving him a 2.83 ERA and 65-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 92.1 innings ? Kip Wells recorded just one out in Monday's return to the rotation, giving up eight runs before being yanked in the first inning.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

$137.5 Million Can't Buy a Win
It's not a trade that'll grab many headlines, but the Diamondbacks pulled off a nice move Tuesday to strengthen their bullpen for the short and long term by picking up Jon Rauch. Rauch had been serving as the Nationals' closer with Chad Cordero done for the season, saving 17 games with a 2.92 ERA and 46-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 49.1 innings. Since moving to the bullpen full time in 2005, Rauch has a 3.40 ERA and 224-to-74 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 257 innings.

Along with the pretty ERAs, Rauch is among the NL's most durable relievers. He's on pace to log at least 80 innings for the third straight season, which is pretty remarkable given that he moved to the bullpen in large part because of previous arm problems. Rauch could work himself into the mix for saves in Arizona if Brandon Lyon continues to struggle, but for now he'll slide into a setup role alongside Tony Pena and Chad Qualls, giving the Diamondbacks tons of late-inning options.

Not only will Rauch make a big impact down the stretch now, he's under Arizona's control for just $2 million in 2009 and $2.9 million in 2010. To get their hands on 2.5 seasons of an excellent, inexpensive reliever all the Diamondbacks had to surrender was prospect Emilio Bonifacio. He's oddly considered a promising young player in some circles, but a .283/.338/.360 line in 648 minor-league games shows him projecting more as a utility man than impact starter.

If the Nationals eventually choose to hand Bonifacio the starting job at second base despite his sub par bat he'll have plenty of speed-based fantasy value, as he's swiped 50 bags per 600 plate appearances in the minors. Meanwhile, with Rauch out of the picture Joel Hanrahan takes over as the Nationals' closer and is worth grabbing in all leagues. Like Rauch, Hanrahan has found a post-injury home in the bullpen with a 3.94 ERA and 65 strikeouts in 59.1 innings this season.

While Diamondbacks general manager Josh Byrnes pulls off what figures to be one of the most underrated moves in a month full of trades, here are some other notes from around baseball ?

* At the opposite end of the trading spectrum, the Astros pulled off a deal Tuesday that makes little sense. Houston didn't give up anything of consequence to get Randy Wolf from the Padres, but the impending free agent doesn't figure to help a team that's 11 games out of a playoff spot. Plus, Wolf has pitched horribly this season away from the pitcher's haven known as Petco Park, going 1-6 with a 6.63 ERA on the road. An odd, seemingly pointless trade, to be sure.

* Johan Santana's tough-luck season continued Tuesday, as he tossed eight innings of two-run ball against the Phillies only to watch his win vanish when the Mets' bullpen imploded without Billy Wagner. Wagner said before the game that he'd be able to pitch despite having an MRI exam on his sore shoulder in the morning, but manager Jerry Manuel opted against using him and paid the price, as Duaner Sanchez, Joe Smith, and Pedro Feliciano coughed up six ninth-inning runs.

Santana has a 3.05 ERA and 120 strikeouts through 21 starts, yet poor support from the lineup and bullpen have left him with just eight wins. Tuesday marked the ninth time this season that Santana has failed to pick up a victory despite turning in a Quality Start and he's now 1-4 over his last nine starts despite a 2.84 ERA during that span. He's having a great season, although his win-loss record will sadly keep far too many fans and media members from realizing it.

* Along with dealing away one of the team's few tradable assets for a very questionable return, Nationals general manager Jim Bowden signed Cristian Guzman to a two-year contract extension worth $16 million Tuesday. Guzman is healthy and effective this season after hitting just .216 in 2005 and missing most of the past two years with injuries, and has batted .315/.352/.436 in 142 games dating back to last season.

Committing to anyone for just two seasons has limited risk and many teams would gladly pay $8 million per year for his recent production, but he's 30 years old and has lost a ton of speed. In those 142 games Guzman has just seven homers, five steals, and 31 walks, so his value's hugely dependent on his ability to hit singles. Toss in the fact that he's never posted an OPS above .700 while playing more than 120 games, and it's a debatable move on the heels of trading Rauch.

AL Quick Hits: Brad Ziegler tossed two more shutout innings Tuesday, setting a new AL record for most consecutive scoreless innings to begin a career with 23.2 ? Adam Lind went 4-for-5 with a homer Tuesday, making the Daily Dose buy-low target 27-for-78 (.346) with five homers and 22 RBIs in 22 games since returning from Triple-A ? Manager Ron Gardenhire finally pulled the plug on Carlos Gomez and his .285 on-base percentage leading off, turning to Denard Span atop the lineup Tuesday ? Pitching on three days' rest Tuesday, Mark Buehrle tossed 7.2 innings of one-run ball to beat the high-scoring Rangers ? Starting Tuesday for the first time since June 18, Shaun Marcum (elbow) was knocked around for seven runs ? Manager Trey Hillman said Monday that Brian Bannister will remain in the rotation despite going 4-8 with a 6.49 ERA in his last 17 starts ? Jeff Clement exited Tuesday's game after his right thumb got caught in the netting behind home plate as he tried to catch a foul ball ? Torii Hunter will be on bereavement leave until Friday, giving Reggie Willits some rare action in center field.

NL Quick Hits: Clayton Kershaw struggled in his return to the rotation Tuesday, allowing five runs on 10 hits while dropping to 0-3 ? Pedro Martinez (hip) threw a 56-pitch bullpen session Tuesday and is slated to make his next start either Friday or Saturday ? Wily Mo Pena will miss the remainder of the season following surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff ? Johnny Cueto tied a career-high with 10 strikeouts Tuesday, but the 22-year-old was allowed to throw 120 pitches in a no-decision ? Todd Helton (back) said Monday that he's not close to returning, leaving Garrett Atkins and Ian Stewart manning the Rockies' infield corners ? Playing Tuesday for the first time since May 25, Ryan Zimmerman (shoulder) went 1-for-3 with two walks ? Bengie Molina entered Tuesday's game with zero homers since May 27, but went deep twice to help Barry Zito notch his fifth win ? Dave Roberts (knee) came off the shelf Tuesday, but will serve as the Giants' fourth outfielder for now ? Yunel Escobar (shoulder) returned Tuesday after 13 days off, going 0-for-4 with two strikeouts ? Hitting just .242 with two homers in 29 games since returning from Triple-A, Chris Duncan landed on the disabled list Tuesday with a bulging disk in his neck.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Prospects: They're Back!
What a weird trading season. First the Indians trade their best player and a veteran of the team for eight full seasons, C.C. Sabathia, in exchange for one of the five best prospects in baseball, Matt LaPorta. Dealing elite prospects or even a handful of very good ones for rental players is much rarer these days than it used to be, in part because top talent is becoming so expensive on the free agent market. Since pre-arbitration and even early arbitration salaries are not catching up, the advantage of young, cheap talent is becoming even more important. Some will point to the Rangers getting an excellent haul for Mark Teixeira last year, but he had a year and a half left on his deal and the two draft picks the Braves will get for him this winter will help offset the prospect loss. Sabathia will test the free agent waters this winter, and his trade was the most significant rental, on both sides of the deal, since the infamous Randy Johnson to the Astros trade in 1998.

On top of that, the Athletics make two trades, and received a significantly better return for the player with the ERA nearing 5.00 than they did for the one with an ERA under 3.00. The Astros also made a trade for a rental pitcher when they're nowhere close to sniffing the playoffs, though they didn't give up anything that will haunt them. And lastly the Nationals traded their closer with two more years under control for a no-hit middle infield prospect. I'm not sure what's in the water that's causing all of this, but the biggest rental trade in a decade and several significant head-scratchers certainly add to the mid-season intrigue. With several other players that could move, this is one of the more active trade deadlines in the last handful of years. Enjoy it while you can.

[SIZE=+1]Major League Callups[/SIZE]

Brooks Conrad ? 2B Athletics ? A 2001 8th round pick out of Arizona State, Conrad looked better as a sophomore than he did as a junior but still had some teams intrigued in his bat. He's moved slowly through the system since, not reaching Double-A until age 24 in 2004. However, Conrad has always shown solid abilities at the plate, as his career .260/.344/.465 line indicates. This season, Conrad has been struggling with strikeouts (94 in 93 games) and his batting average is down to .242 as a result. However, since that's come with 21 doubles and 21 homers, Conrad is managing a fine .484 slugging percentage.

A 5'11" switch-hitter who isn't particularly athletic, Conrad doesn't impress scouts. He can't handle shortstop and he's not a plus defender at second base, though he can handle second and third admirably. His high strikeout rate has prevented him from ever jockeying for a big league job, and he's now 28 years old and just making his big league debut. That said, Conrad's power is legitimate and he draws a number of walks, so it'd be interesting to see what he could do as a utility player. He won't play enough to garner fantasy value and the club could look for other alternatives if a starter got hurt, but Conrad is someone to root for and his power gives him at least a small chance of having value at some point.

Recommendation: Ignore in AL-only leagues.

Jamie D'Antona ? 3B Diamondbacks ? A second round pick out of Wake Forrest in 2003, D'Antona had an accomplished college career that saw him smack 58 homers in three years. D'Antona's bat translated immediately after signing, as he played well for Single-A Yakima in 2003 and High-A Lancaster for the first half of 2004. Between the two stops D'Antona hit .296 with 36 doubles and 28 homers in 544 at-bats. His 96/51 K/BB was also strong, and it looked like the Diamondbacks had a steal of a draft pick.

Unfortunately for D'Antona the move to Double-A proved troublesome and he was quickly sidelined for the rest of the season once reaching there. The 2005 campaign wasn't any easier, as D'Antona struggled to hit for both average and power in Double-A. At this point it looked like his status was overly inflated because of the hitter-friendly California League, but D'Antona bounced back in 2006. He hit .312/.383/.487 for Double-A Tennessee, showing good plate discipline and belting 17 homers in 126 games along the way. D'Antona more or less repeated that performance at Triple-A Tucson last season, though that his K/BB ratio improved to a nifty 57/40 was even more promising.

The 6'2", 220-pound right-hander was having his best season at the plate before the promotion, batting .367/.407/.612 with 31 doubles, 17 homers, and a fine 53/24 K/BB. A third basemen by trade, D'Antona isn't a particularly good fielder. The Diamondbacks have tried him at catcher, but never gave him an extended look there and he's an emergency third catcher at best. He's also played a good deal of first, and if his bat translates well he'll end up playing first base or DH'ing for an AL team. With above average power and a high contact rate, I like D'Antona's chances of producing enough with the bat to justify a spot in the lineup even from first base or DH.

The Diamondbacks have nothing to lose by giving D'Antona an occasional start, using him as a pinch-hitter, and utilizing his flexibility to play catcher when making late-game switches. He'd need quite a hot streak to earn even a semi-regular job, but his bat is promising enough that he's worth stashing away in deeper NL-only leagues. However, if he were to earn catcher eligibility, D'Antona would be a must-claim in two-catcher NL-only formats. Though he's already 26, D'Antona's .280 batting average and 20-homer potential mean there are worse players to have stashed away in keeper leagues.

Recommendation: Stash away in one-year NL-only leagues; monitor in keeper formats.

Clayton Kershaw ? LHP Dodgers ? I wrote about Kershaw back in late May when he was called up the first time, so I won't revisit some of the historical information. However, when perhaps the game's best prospect gets recalled to the majors, it's worth an update. Kershaw went 0-2 with a 4.42 ERA in eight starts with the Dodgers before his demotion. He gave up 39 hits, including three homers, walked 24, and struck out 33 in 38 2/3 innings. The Dodgers decided Kershaw needed to fine-tune his command, so they sent him back to the minors on July 2.

Kershaw gave up two runs and posted a 12/4 K/BB in 18 Double-A innings spread over three starts since his demotion, and now he's back in the majors. It's unlikely that Kershaw has made significant enough changes in three starts to produce immediate major league improvement, and it's a curious decision by the Dodgers to promote him again so soon. That means the odds are still stacked against Kershaw having fantasy value, especially in 4x4 leagues.

However, betting against elite prospects is rarely an advised strategy, and Kershaw's fastball-curveball combination is strong enough for him to have an impact down the stretch. He'll need to get more efficient and walk fewer batters, but Kershaw has that ability and the price to take a chance on him will never be lower. He's an especially good gamble for a middle of the road team that needs a spark. As I wrote that last line I noticed Kershaw isn't pitching well, but it was in Coors Field and Kershaw is still worth a dice roll.

Recommendation: Claim in NL-only leagues; monitor in mixed leagues; buy-low if possible in keeper formats.

Bryan LaHair ? 1B Mariners ? A big 6'5", 220-pound left-handed hitting first basemen, LaHair is getting his first shot in the majors after six seasons in the minor leagues. A 39th round pick in 2002 who signed the next spring as a draft-and-follow, LaHair broke out in the California League in 2005 with a .310/.373/.503 line that included a 125/51 K/BB. LaHair proved the performance wasn't a California League mirage by playing solidly for Double-A San Antonio to start the 2006 campaign. He looked even better after a mid-season promotion to Triple-A, hitting .327/.393/.525 in the Pacific Coast League as a 23-year-old.

Unfortunately, that's when LaHair's stock as a prospect peaked. He couldn't crack the Mariners' roster the next spring, and he disappointed after returning to Tacoma. LaHair continued to disappoint this season, though his .263/.357/.467 mark with 26 doubles and 12 homers wasn't all that bad. Still, LaHair strikes out too often, doesn't have 30-homer power, and is too inconsistent when he does make contact. Since he's a first basemen through and through, he's not a prospect that projects to be a regular.

That said, LaHair could smack 20 homers and draw a few walks if ever given a full-time job, though a team would have to be desperate to do so. Fortunately for AL-only leaguers, the Mariners are that desperate. With Richie Sexson gone and Jose Vidro's name being more dangerous than his bat, it's easy to see the club giving plenty of at-bats versus right-handed pitching to LaHair. The left-hander does have big splits (920 OPS vs RHs; 480 vs. LHs) and a career as a Brian Daubach type platoon player wouldn't be completely unreasonable, but that's his absolute upside. Those with an opening in an AL-only league should give him a shot and hope for a .250 average and eight homers, just don't be surprised if he swings himself back to Triple-A in a few weeks.

Recommendation: Claim in AL-only leagues.

Clayton Richard ? LHP White Sox ? Another player I've recently written about, I saw Richard pitch at the Futures Game a few weeks ago and wrote about it in this space. To summarize, Richard is a big southpaw at 6'6" and 240 pounds. He relies primarily on a sinker, and the downward plane from his tall frame makes the pitch better than it really is. Richard has good command and induces plenty of grounders, making up for a below average strikeout rate.

Richard's year-to-date stats look good, with a 2.44 ERA and 82/20 K/BB in 121 2/3 innings between Double-A Birmingham and Triple-A Charlotte. That he's only allowed 91 hits, including four homers, has allowed Richard to post such a low ERA. His hit rate won't remain that low in the majors, but as long as he's walking few people and keeping the ball in the park, he should be at least an innings eater. The 24-year-old has a little more potential than that, but the odds are against him being a No. 3 starter.

Originally scheduled to pitch for Team USA in the Olympics, the White Sox have called up Richard to start on Wednesday in place of the injured Jose Contreras. Richard should get at least two and likely three chances to show what he can do, but he'll head back to the minors if the rotation is full once Contreras is ready. He may have a little short-term value in AL-only leagues as a result, and will get the Rangers, Twins, and Royals during his three potential outings.

Recommendation: Short-term flier in AL-only formats.

Ian Stewart ? 3B Rockies ? Like Kershaw, I wrote about Stewart back in late May when he was originally promoted to the majors. As predicted, Stewart continued his conscious effort to trade batting average for power. He smacked three homers, three doubles, and a triple in just 55 at-bats, but he also had just five singles and struck out 28 times. The Rockies sent him back to the minors, and Stewart continued raking in Triple-A with a .279 average, seven homers, and six doubles in 23 games.

With Todd Helton on the shelf and Joe Koshansky not cutting it, the club decided to give Stewart another chance. He's gotten off to an excellent start, going 9-for-17 with three doubles, a homer, and 10 RBI in four games at Coors Field. He's also struck out four times, but the power is very much there. Stewart has the ability to smack 30 homers annually while so focused on power, but it might come with a .260 average even with Coors Field helping him. He's still just 23, so it's too early to rule out a talented player like Stewart making adjustments and improving his contact rate as time progresses.

Stewart was given a chance to play second base last time in the majors, but Jeff Baker is holding down that spot admirably now. Instead, Stewart has been installed as the third basemen with Garrett Atkins moving over to first. Todd Helton will squeeze Stewart or Baker out of the lineup once he's ready to return, but his back is still bothering him and he seems at least two more weeks away. That means Stewart is a good short-term claim in all leagues. NL-only leaguers can play him all the time, but mixed leaguers with daily lineups will probably want to sit him on the road. Even if that's not possible, his power gives him short-term value in almost all weekly lineup leagues. He's still a good option to hold on to in keeper formats.

Recommendation: Claim in all one-year and keeper formats.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Jorge's Choice
Placed on the disabled list earlier this week, Jorge Posada was told Wednesday that he'll need surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder if he wants to catch again. However, instead of immediately going under the knife with an eye toward returning at something resembling full strength next season, Posada is planning to take a couple weeks off before attempting to play through the injury as either a designated hitter or first baseman.

At 36 years old it's tough to blame Posada for not wanting to give up on a season, but he'll lose a significant chunk of his value to the Yankees the moment he ceases being an option behind the plate. A .277/.380/.477 career line makes Posada about 20 percent more productive than the average MLB catcher, but would put him just six percent above average at first base. That's a big difference, although for fantasy purposes he'll maintain catcher eligibility for at least next season.

Beyond that, there's no guarantee that Posada will post his usual .850 OPS while playing through the injury. He hit just .248/.380/.371 with two homers in 33 games between DL stints and a torn labrum doesn't heal itself. If he puts off surgery now, struggles to remain productive regardless of position, and then ultimately decides to go under the knife later, he'd likely miss part of next year as well. Look for the Yankees to add a veteran catcher (Gregg Zaun?) to pair with Jose Molina.

While the Yankees test exactly how many designated hitters one roster can hold, here are some other notes from around baseball ?

* If CC Sabathia keeps this up, it's going to be awfully tough for the Brewers to let him walk as a free agent. Sabathia tossed a complete-game shutout Wednesday over the Cardinals, going the distance for the third time in four starts with the Brewers. He's 4-0 with a 1.36 ERA since coming over from Cleveland, which makes him 10-5 with a 1.97 ERA and 140-to-28 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 128.1 innings spread over 18 starts since beginning the season with four rough outings.

* Sabathia handed them a third straight loss Wednesday, but the Cardinals did get some good news on the injury front. After throwing four scoreless innings in his first minor-league rehab start Sunday at Double-A, Chris Carpenter had a successful bullpen session Tuesday and is on track to make his second rehab appearance Friday at Triple-A. Carpenter is exactly one year removed from Tommy John elbow surgery, and barring a setback looks capable of returning next month.

Meanwhile, Adam Wainwright also threw a bullpen session Tuesday and said afterward that he "optimistically" hopes to return within three weeks. He's been sidelined since June 7 with a ruptured pulley in his right middle finger and no timetable has been established for a rehab stint, so three weeks may be a best-case scenario. Still, if the Cardinals can remain within striking distance for a playoff spot, getting Carpenter and Wainwright back next month could be huge.

* Not even his agent filing a grievance against the Twins on his behalf earlier this week can slow Francisco Liriano down. Stuck at Triple-A because the Twins refuse to dump Livan Hernandez and his 5.29 ERA from the rotation, Liriano tossed seven shutout innings Tuesday while racking up 10 strikeouts and allowing just two hits. He's now 9-0 with a 2.37 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 81-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 64.2 innings spread over his last 10 starts.

Liriano has allowed just one earned run over his last 35 innings, totaling 42 strikeouts versus five walks during that span. While his agent's claim that the Twins are keeping Liriano at Triple-A to suppress his service time falls apart once the details are examined, there's plenty of reason to question why he's still being allowed to overpower minor leaguers when the Twins are in the thick of a pennant race. Much of his velocity has returned and the results are outstanding. It's time.

* An MRI exam on Erik Bedard's injured shoulder confirmed the original diagnosis of an internal impingement, which is basically a fancy way of saying "soreness." That qualifies as good news because it rules out major structural damage, but he's yet to begin throwing and is probably out of time to show that he's healthy with a start before the July 31 trading deadline. Bedard is under the Mariners' control through next season, but seems like a long shot to be in Seattle come April.

AL Quick Hits: Carlos Quentin took over the AL lead with a pair of homers Wednesday and ranks second to only Josh Hamilton with 76 RBIs ? David Ortiz (wrist) played his final minor-league rehab game Wednesday and remains on track to come off the disabled list Friday ? J.J. Putz totaled three strikeouts in two scoreless innings Wednesday, but likely didn't gain any ground on reclaiming the closer job thanks to Brandon Morrow tossing two shutout frames ? Mike Mussina tossed eight shutout innings Wednesday, picking up his 13th win and improving to 22-6 lifetime versus the Twins ? Jeff Mathis went 4-for-5 while driving in six runs Wednesday, smacking his first career grand slam ? Justin Masterson made his first career relief appearance Wednesday, retiring all eight batters he faced after entering a tie game with two runners on base ? Multiple reports suggest that the Yankees are interested in Jarrod Washburn and may be willing to take Jose Vidro off the Mariners' hands to make a deal work ? In the lineup against a left-hander Wednesday, Casey Kotchan had a career-high five hits ? Manny Ramirez was scratched from Wednesday's game with right knee soreness.

NL Quick Hits: Roy Oswalt (hip) threw a bullpen session Wednesday and is on track to come off the disabled list Monday against the Reds ? Atlanta saw Tim Hudson (elbow) and Chipper Jones (hamstring) exit Wednesday's game with injuries, but both players said afterward that they expect to avoid the DL ? [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4048"]Ryan Braun[/URL] went 4-for-5 with a homer Wednesday and is now hitting .302 with 22 homers in 72 games since a poor April ? As expected, Alfonso Soriano (hand) came off the shelf Wednesday and resumed leading off, dropping Kosuke Fukudome in the lineup ? One day after the Mets' bullpen imploded without him and cost Johan Santana a victory, Billy Wagner (shoulder) tossed a perfect ninth inning Wednesday for his 25th save ? Amid various trade rumors, Jason Bay matched last season's total with his 21st homer Wednesday ? Gregor Blanco came into Wednesday's game with a modest .670 OPS, but went 4-for-5 with three RBIs and three runs ? Jose Reyes smacked what proved to be the game-winning three-run homer Wednesday, giving him a .312 batting average, nine homers, 27 steals, and 59 runs in 75 games since May 1.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Hunting for second-half stars
Fantasy owners everywhere ?" at least those still playing for this season ?" are looking for ways to make second-half surges.

For those in Roto leagues, this might come in the form of targeting specific categories in which they have the most room for improvement in the standings.

For those in head-to-head leagues, it might come through late-season trading with teams out of the running.

But no matter what type of league you're in, the key to making a championship run lies in constantly trying to improve your roster.

Of course, that's easier said than done when every other team in the league is attempting to do the same thing. That's why it's often a good strategy to go against the flow and try something the rest of your league isn't doing.


First, things the other owners in your league probably are trying:

1. Look to acquire players who traditionally perform better in the second half.

Some players always turn it on as the weather heats up. Johan Santana's 2004 season, when he went 13-0 with a 1.21 ERA after the break and carried a number of fantasy owners to championships, is often cited as the Holy Grail of second-half acquisitions.

Take it from someone who traded Santana that year after his mediocre (7-6, 3.78 ERA) first half, it's no fun to see your opponents' players get hot down the stretch.

But predicting which players will surge and which ones will fade just because the calendar says July, August or September is a shaky proposition at best. There are many other factors that can affect performances.

Look for players with proven track records, superior underlying skills or the promise of greater playing time (Robinson Cano, Brad Hawpe, Justin Verlander and Jonathan Broxton, for example) to fuel your second-half surge.

2. Look for players switching leagues or minor league call-ups to provide late-season jolts.

Already this month, the American League has seen three talented pitchers (CC Sabathia, Rich Harden, Joe Blanton) leave in trades to National League clubs. Those in AL-only leagues must feel that the trend surely will reverse itself before the July 31 deadline.

As enticing as a Matt Holliday trade to the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox could be, the odds that he will be dealt and that your fantasy team will be able to pick him up are still slim.

Holliday and Mark Teixeira are perhaps the only two players potentially on the trading block who could make a major difference to fantasy teams over the final two months of the season.

Although it's nice to have the No. 1 waiver pick or the highest FAAB (free agent acquisition budget) in your league, it's unlikely that the advantage will pay off in a season-altering addition.

The pool of potentially major league-ready minor leaguers is also a bit thinner this year. One reason is that some of the top prospects in the game (outfielders Matt LaPorta and Colby Rasmus, pitcher Casey Weathers, catcher Taylor Teagarden and others) will be on the USA's 25-man roster at the Olympics.

By the time they return from Beijing in late August, their seasons could be all but over.

So how can a fantasy owner make roster improvements if those traditional methods are such high-risk propositions?

Look no further than the injury report.

A three- or four-day All-Star break doesn't heal injuries by itself, but it allows the healing process to continue stress-free. David Ortiz is one of a number of top fantasy performers due to return in the next week.

For those fantasy teams that have lived without Big Papi's big bat in the lineup, it's almost like adding a star player for free.

If you're in a league that allows you to pick up players who are still on the disabled list, now is a good time to make a move.

Or if you're in the process of making a trade, see if you can get the other owner to throw in a player who's working his way back from injury. It's a low-risk, high-reward proposition.

If your pitching staff is struggling, a pair of St. Louis Cardinals could give you a lift. Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright could return in a couple of weeks. Both are top-tier pitchers when healthy, and though Carpenter is recovering from elbow surgery, he was one of the NL's best pitchers from 2004 to 2006.

Others to watch: [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=194"]Chris Young[/URL], Fausto Carmona, Jeff Francis, Anibal Sanchez.

There are also decent hitters working their way back toward the active ranks. Frank Thomas might be a forgotten man with all the Oakland Athletics roster changes in the last several weeks, but he'll go right back into the middle of the lineup when he returns, possibly in early August.

Others to watch: Victor Martinez, Dave Roberts, Johnny Damon, Tadahito Iguchi, Rocco Baldelli.

If your catching ranks are thin, Gerald Laird is another week or so away from testing his injured hamstring. He was hitting .306 with 25 RBI in 51 games before the injury and could be an asset down the stretch, especially in two-catcher leagues.

This game counts: One of the benefits of setting up a league is being able to write the rulebook. That allows for creativity to do things most ordinary leagues don't.

Want to penalize players for errors? How about using only players from AL Central teams? Or counting 11 different hitting and pitching categories? Or starting from scratch after the All-Star break? It's your league. The possibilities are endless.

One of the fun rules available to those who customize their league is to count stats from the All-Star Game.

It's not a bad idea, especially for those fantasy teams with All-Star pitchers on their staffs. For instance, Cliff Lee essentially loses a regular-season start because he performed well enough over the first half to be the AL's starting All-Star pitcher.

In a dynasty points league of mine that has a number of quirky rules, we include stats from the All-Star Game in our season totals. Just for fun, here's a quick recap from a fantasy perspective.

*Total points: American League 66, National League 35.

*High scores: Game MVP J.D. Drew also had the highest point total, 10 (on five total bases, one walk, one stolen base, one run, two RBI). Runners-up with six points were Justin Morneau, Holliday and Lee.

*Low scores: The goats of the game were also fantasy duds. Losing pitcher Brad Lidge (minus four points), Dan Uggla (minus three; yes, errors count) and Billy Wagner (minus two after allowing a run and blowing a save) were among the six players who finished with negative point totals.

Though the extra points awarded (or deducted) ended up being a tiny percentage of the overall totals, it made a memorable game even more enjoyable to watch.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Jorge's Choice
Placed on the disabled list earlier this week, Jorge Posada was told Wednesday that he'll need surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder if he wants to catch again. However, instead of immediately going under the knife with an eye toward returning at something resembling full strength next season, Posada is planning to take a couple weeks off before attempting to play through the injury as either a designated hitter or first baseman.

At 36 years old it's tough to blame Posada for not wanting to give up on a season, but he'll lose a significant chunk of his value to the Yankees the moment he ceases being an option behind the plate. A .277/.380/.477 career line makes Posada about 20 percent more productive than the average MLB catcher, but would put him just six percent above average at first base. That's a big difference, although for fantasy purposes he'll maintain catcher eligibility for at least next season.

Beyond that, there's no guarantee that Posada will post his usual .850 OPS while playing through the injury. He hit just .248/.380/.371 with two homers in 33 games between DL stints and a torn labrum doesn't heal itself. If he puts off surgery now, struggles to remain productive regardless of position, and then ultimately decides to go under the knife later, he'd likely miss part of next year as well. Look for the Yankees to add a veteran catcher (Gregg Zaun?) to pair with Jose Molina.

While the Yankees test exactly how many designated hitters one roster can hold, here are some other notes from around baseball ?

* If CC Sabathia keeps this up, it's going to be awfully tough for the Brewers to let him walk as a free agent. Sabathia tossed a complete-game shutout Wednesday over the Cardinals, going the distance for the third time in four starts with the Brewers. He's 4-0 with a 1.36 ERA since coming over from Cleveland, which makes him 10-5 with a 1.97 ERA and 140-to-28 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 128.1 innings spread over 18 starts since beginning the season with four rough outings.

* Sabathia handed them a third straight loss Wednesday, but the Cardinals did get some good news on the injury front. After throwing four scoreless innings in his first minor-league rehab start Sunday at Double-A, Chris Carpenter had a successful bullpen session Tuesday and is on track to make his second rehab appearance Friday at Triple-A. Carpenter is exactly one year removed from Tommy John elbow surgery, and barring a setback looks capable of returning next month.

Meanwhile, Adam Wainwright also threw a bullpen session Tuesday and said afterward that he "optimistically" hopes to return within three weeks. He's been sidelined since June 7 with a ruptured pulley in his right middle finger and no timetable has been established for a rehab stint, so three weeks may be a best-case scenario. Still, if the Cardinals can remain within striking distance for a playoff spot, getting Carpenter and Wainwright back next month could be huge.

* Not even his agent filing a grievance against the Twins on his behalf earlier this week can slow Francisco Liriano down. Stuck at Triple-A because the Twins refuse to dump Livan Hernandez and his 5.29 ERA from the rotation, Liriano tossed seven shutout innings Tuesday while racking up 10 strikeouts and allowing just two hits. He's now 9-0 with a 2.37 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 81-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 64.2 innings spread over his last 10 starts.

Liriano has allowed just one earned run over his last 35 innings, totaling 42 strikeouts versus five walks during that span. While his agent's claim that the Twins are keeping Liriano at Triple-A to suppress his service time falls apart once the details are examined, there's plenty of reason to question why he's still being allowed to overpower minor leaguers when the Twins are in the thick of a pennant race. Much of his velocity has returned and the results are outstanding. It's time.

* An MRI exam on Erik Bedard's injured shoulder confirmed the original diagnosis of an internal impingement, which is basically a fancy way of saying "soreness." That qualifies as good news because it rules out major structural damage, but he's yet to begin throwing and is probably out of time to show that he's healthy with a start before the July 31 trading deadline. Bedard is under the Mariners' control through next season, but seems like a long shot to be in Seattle come April.

AL Quick Hits: Carlos Quentin took over the AL lead with a pair of homers Wednesday and ranks second to only Josh Hamilton with 76 RBIs ? David Ortiz (wrist) played his final minor-league rehab game Wednesday and remains on track to come off the disabled list Friday ? J.J. Putz totaled three strikeouts in two scoreless innings Wednesday, but likely didn't gain any ground on reclaiming the closer job thanks to Brandon Morrow tossing two shutout frames ? Mike Mussina tossed eight shutout innings Wednesday, picking up his 13th win and improving to 22-6 lifetime versus the Twins ? Jeff Mathis went 4-for-5 while driving in six runs Wednesday, smacking his first career grand slam ? Justin Masterson made his first career relief appearance Wednesday, retiring all eight batters he faced after entering a tie game with two runners on base ? Multiple reports suggest that the Yankees are interested in Jarrod Washburn and may be willing to take Jose Vidro off the Mariners' hands to make a deal work ? In the lineup against a left-hander Wednesday, Casey Kotchan had a career-high five hits ? Manny Ramirez was scratched from Wednesday's game with right knee soreness.

NL Quick Hits: Roy Oswalt (hip) threw a bullpen session Wednesday and is on track to come off the disabled list Monday against the Reds ? Atlanta saw Tim Hudson (elbow) and Chipper Jones (hamstring) exit Wednesday's game with injuries, but both players said afterward that they expect to avoid the DL ? [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4048"]Ryan Braun[/URL] went 4-for-5 with a homer Wednesday and is now hitting .302 with 22 homers in 72 games since a poor April ? As expected, Alfonso Soriano (hand) came off the shelf Wednesday and resumed leading off, dropping Kosuke Fukudome in the lineup ? One day after the Mets' bullpen imploded without him and cost Johan Santana a victory, Billy Wagner (shoulder) tossed a perfect ninth inning Wednesday for his 25th save ? Amid various trade rumors, Jason Bay matched last season's total with his 21st homer Wednesday ? Gregor Blanco came into Wednesday's game with a modest .670 OPS, but went 4-for-5 with three RBIs and three runs ? Jose Reyes smacked what proved to be the game-winning three-run homer Wednesday, giving him a .312 batting average, nine homers, 27 steals, and 59 runs in 75 games since May 1.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Delgado Not Done Yet
It's been a busy week and there's plenty of stuff to cover today, so let's skip the usual chatter and get right to the notes from around baseball ?

* Colby Rasmus came into this season as a consensus top-10 prospect and was thought to have a legitimate shot at replacing Jim Edmonds as the Cardinals' starting center fielder. Instead, he was sent to Triple-A despite posting a .982 OPS during spring training and slumped at Memphis, hitting just .210 in April and .218 in May. He put together a big June, hitting .333/.441/.535, but then missed time earlier this month with a groin injury.

Ramus had just returned to the lineup Tuesday when he suffered a sprained knee that's expected to sideline him for at least a month and will keep him from playing in the Olympics. He once seemed like nearly a sure thing to spend a chunk of this season in the majors, but between the injuries and hitting just .249/.346/.395 the 22-year-old may not make it to St. Louis until 2009. His 11 homers, 49 walks, and 15 steals in 89 games are still a good sign, so don't give up on him.

* Overreacting to his recent struggles, the Blue Jays sent Jesse Litsch to the minors Thursday despite his decent 8-7 record and 4.46 ERA overall this season. Litsch is 23 years old, has gone 15-16 with a 4.12 ERA in 39 career starts, and has posted better secondary numbers?strikeouts, walks, homers allowed?than he did as a rookie last season. Given that Toronto is all but out of the playoff picture, he likely deserved to remain in the rotation and work through his problems.

Whatever the case, the Blue Jays recalled southpaw David Purcey from Triple-A to replace Litsch in the rotation and he's worth watching after showing major improvement recently. A first-round pick in 2004, Purcey has always racked up plenty of strikeouts, but struggled with his control for his first three pro seasons before something finally clicked for him last year. Now that he's finding the strike zone with regularity, Purcey looks capable of becoming a solid mid-rotation starter.

In 30 starts between Double-A and Triple-A over the past two seasons, Purcey has a 3.62 ERA and 176-to-50 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 179 innings. Striking out around one batter per inning is nothing new for Purcey, but he's issued just 2.5 free passes per nine innings during that time after walking 5.1 batters per nine innings from 2004-2006. Don't expect him to be a mixed-league option, but Purcey has a chance to provide some solid value in AL-only leagues.

* Jeff Baker has officially taken over as the Rockies' second baseman, starting six straight games at the position even with Troy Tulowitzki's return from the disabled list crowding the infield picture. Baker's bat was mediocre when he was playing primarily first base or an outfield corner, but he has enough pop to be one of the league's better hitters at second base and has been surprisingly effective defensively for someone who made his MLB debut at the position earlier this year.

Baker is a .274/.329/.488 hitter with 17 homers, 55 total extra-base hits, 71 RBIs, and 77 runs in 484 career plate appearances, including .297/.344/.510 in 224 trips to the plate this season. His solid-looking raw numbers are due largely to playing home games at Coors Field, as he's hit just .218/.282/.341 on the road during his career, but Baker isn't going anywhere and raw numbers are all that matter for fantasy purposes. He could be a major sleeper down the stretch.

* Oliver Perez had three shutout efforts in his first four outings this season, but then went through an ugly eight-start stretch that saw him post a 7.51 ERA with more walks than strikeouts from late April through early June. He's gotten back on track since then and after fanning a dozen over 7.2 innings of one-run ball Thursday he now has a 2.53 ERA and 57-to-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 57 innings spread over his last nine outings, including five straight Quality Starts.

* After a week full of contradictory stories about what the Cubs planned to do with Kerry Wood, the oft-injured closer finally landed on the disabled list Thursday due to a blister on his right index finger. Wood hasn't pitched since July 11 and the DL stint was backdated to make him eligible for a quick return, but he's unlikely to be ready by the end of the month. Carlos Marmol will keep filling in for Wood and should be able to pick up a few saves despite his own recent struggles.

* Carlos Delgado posted the worst OPS of his career last year and hit just .198 this April as many people began speculating about the Mets replacing him, but he's been one of the NL's best hitters since May 1. Delgado delivered a key two-run double Thursday against the Phillies and is hitting .284/.363/.530 with 16 homers and 18 doubles over his last 74 games. He's been especially great this month, going 29-for-73 (.397) with five homers, eight doubles, and 16 RBIs in 20 games.

AL Quick Hits: As expected, the Mariners are no longer counting on Erik Bedard (shoulder) being able to make a start before the trading deadline ? Meanwhile, Jarrod Washburn said Wednesday that he'd "strongly consider" waiving his partial no-trade clause for a deal to the Yankees ? Roy Halladay picked up his 12th win by holding the Orioles to one run over seven innings Thursday and now ranks third in the league with a 2.82 ERA ? With Jorge Posada (shoulder) no longer an option behind the plate and Jose Molina sporting a measly .560 OPS, the Yankees are said to be interested in veteran catchers Gerald Laird, Paul Lo Duca, Miguel Olivo, and Rod Barajas ? Gil Meche tossed seven shutout innings Thursday against the Rays for his eighth victory ? Daniel Cabrera was rocked by the Blue Jays for seven runs on 11 hits Thursday and is now 1-5 with a 6.56 ERA over his last 10 outings following a very promising start to the season ? Jason Bartlett returned from the disabled list Thursday by going 3-for-3 with a double ? With as many as a dozen teams said to be scouting George Sherrill, he doesn't figure to be a closer for much longer.

NL Quick Hits: Jimmy Rollins was benched Thursday for showing up late to the ballpark, but made the final out of the game as a pinch-hitter ? [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4048"]Ryan Braun[/URL] notched his second straight four-hit game Thursday and is now hitting .382 this month ? Carlos Zambrano hasn't totaled more than six strikeouts in a start since April 6, but improved to 11-4 with seven innings of two-run ball Thursday against the Marlins ? Showing no signs of slowing down, Xavier Nady went 2-for-4 with a homer Thursday and is now sporting a 1.060 OPS this month ? Bronson Arroyo is 5-0 with a 3.09 ERA in his last five starts, reportedly drawing the Rockies' interest despite being owed $23 million over the next two years ? Lastings Milledge returned from the disabled list Thursday and resumed starting in center field, with Willie Harris sliding to left field ? Josh Bard came off the shelf Thursday after sitting out two months with an ankle injury suffered when Albert Pujols slid into him ? General manager Jim Bowden said Thursday that the Nationals will non-tender Chad Cordero (shoulder) after the season, but may try to re-sign him to an incentive-laden deal.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

Steinbrenners bail Bonds?
We're over 100 games into the season, so I figure it's probably about time to open up the old mailbag. Let's start with a compilation of many emails sent by one of my most rabid readers:

"Amateur hour? Another young punk, who thinks he knows something about baseball. Take your stats and play with yourself? You are just 1 of the many jokers that write opinions on Roto World. All of you are the same? I win fantasy leagues and financially can buy and sell you 10 times over? Maine is a done deal for the rest of the year. Pick any starter against Maine, he will not win another game this year. That is why you are a Stat Geek and you are clueless. I am telling you this before the fact JAG OFF."

Why, thank you. Of course, all of that was written before Maine won on Wednesday, but I'm sure the general "you are a jag off" sentiment still rings true. Here are this week's waiver options:

[SIZE=+1]National League[/SIZE]

1. Ryan Zimmerman ? 3B ? WAS - Zimmerman was activated off the disabled list this week, and has gone 5-for-12 in his first three games back after missing two months with a shoulder injury. The injury could end up zapping some of his power this season, but on the other hand Zimmerman has hit about 30 points better in the second half than the first in his short career. For now, he's certainly of use in NL-only leagues, and he's worth snatching up in case he is able to return to his old form.
Recommendation Worth consideration in mixed leagues.

2. Manny Corpas ? RP ? COL - He's been mentioned before, but with the trading deadline just a week away and Brian Fuentes on the block, Corpas is a fine short-term investment.
Recommendation - Should be owned in mixed leagues.

3. Jason Bergmann ? SP ? WAS - Bergmann is 1-7 this season, and as a member of the Nationals that record doesn't figure to improve much (unless Emilio Bonifacio was acquired for magical abilities). He's coming off a tough start against the Giants in which he allowed three homers, which tends to be his biggest flaw. Still, since being demoted earlier this season, he's posted a solid 3.00 ERA. He doesn't strike out many batters, and he won't get wins, but he should be a solid innings eater over the rest of the season.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues.

4. Freddy Sanchez ? 2b ? PIT - Freddy Sanchez is finally starting to heat up a little: he's gone 14-for-30 with two homers in the past week. Part of this could be that he's finally starting to distance himself from offseason shoulder surgery, and Sanchez also had a strong finish to the season last year. He doesn't have much power or speed, but since he's in the No. 2 hole in Pittsburgh's explosive lineup, he should score plenty of runs if he can continue to hit. The one-week surge isn't enough to declare him back, but it's certainly a good sign.
Recommendation Worth consideration in mixed leagues.

5. Eugenio Velez ? 2B ? SF - The Giants shipped Ray Durham to Milwaukee, and thus Eugenio Velez should see significant playing time at second base. The trade also provided me with a good excuse to use "I Dream of Eugenio" as the headline of this article. Velez isn't much of a hitter, but he's a speedy feller who should contribute at least ten steals over the final two months of the season. His .246 BABIP combined with his speed suggests his average should improve from its current .208 level, which would also be nice.
Recommendation - Worth consideration in NL-only leagues.

6. Chris Volstad ? SP ? FLA - Volstad has a 2.16 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 16 2/3 innings for the Marlins, and while he projects to eventually be a very solid starter, his rookie season will likely be filled with ups and downs. His strikeout totals aren't very impressive, but he's someone that can be used in the right situation. His match-up against the Cubs on Saturday is not the right situation, but it's a good chance to see what the 21-year-old is made of.
Recommendation: Streamer material in mixed leagues.

7. Ian Stewart ? 3B ? COL - The Denver Post reported earlier this week that Todd Helton was "not close to returning," but the Rockies can't be upset with what they've gotten out of Stewart this week with Garrett Atkins filling in at first. Stewart has gone 11-for-20 with 11 RBI and five runs scored. Stewart hadn't shown much before this week, but the former first-round pick is only 23 and clearly has plenty of potential, as his .280/.372/.607 line in the minors attests to. Still, he might only have playing time for a couple more weeks.
Recommendation: Should be owned short-term in NL-only leagues.

<!--RW-->[SIZE=+1]American League[/SIZE]

1. Adam Lind ? OF ? TOR - Lind is finally starting to hit like so many of us knew he would: he's put up a .383/.387/.667 line in 60 at-bats this month, with three homers and 17 RBI. While that probably won't continue for the rest of the season, we've discussed the reasons Lind is worth owning in this space before.
Recommendation: Should be owned in mixed leagues.

2. Casey Blake ? 3B ? CLE - Since June 1, Casey Blake is hitting .348 with seven home runs and 29 RBI. Blake has alternated between an OPS of around .750 and .850 for the past six seasons, and this season he's due to wind up in the .850 range. And patterns don't lie. Ever. Blake has always been slowed by an inability to hit with runners in scoring position, but he seems to have conquered the problem this year, and his 58 RBI puts him on pace to set a new career record. The fact is that Blake has shown he has the power to hit at a 20 homer pace, his average won't hurt you, and he's eligible at shortstop in some leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in mixed leagues.

3. Glen Perkins ? SP ? MIN - Before Wednesday, Perkins hadn't allowed more than three runs in any of his starts since June 4, and six of his eight starts over that time have lasted long enough to be quality. His tough outing against the Yankees on Wednesday was largely the fault of poor fielding. His 46/23 K/BB ratio in 90 1/3 innings isn't very impressive, but the Twins keep winning, and Perkins is 5-1 in his last seven starts. Used wisely, he could be a cheap source of wins down the stretch.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues.

4. Barry Bonds ? OF - ?? - If Bonds signs, it will probably be with an American League team, and there is still plenty of reason to think he won't sniff the majors this season. Still, the Yankees have made no secret of the fact that they're talking about him, and while it remains a long shot, it's proof that desperate teams are starting to consider ole Barry. If he was signed this week, he'd probably hit at least 10 homers and post an OPS of 1.000 over the rest of the season. He could do even more damage depending on the level of rage that is simmering in that huge head of his. There's no harm in stashing him if you have the space: the dividends could be huge. Like his head.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues.

5. Melvin Mora ? 3B ? BAL - Mora has been an absolute beast in July, he's hitting .359/.427/.641 with five homers and 24 RBI. Thanks in part to a brutal June, he's still hitting just .256, but that number figures to rise slightly. Mora is 36, and his best days are clearly behind him, but he should be good for almost ten homers and a decent average over the rest of the season.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues.

6. Jason Bartlett ? SS ? TB - Jason Bartlett is back from the disabled list, and his 3-for-3 night on Thursday raised his average all the way to .264. Amazing. While he's not going to provide much help with his bat, Bartlett did steal 18 bases in his first 276 at-bats this season, and if he shows his knee sprain didn't slow him, he could steal ten more before the season's out.
Recommendation: Should be owned in AL-only leagues.

7. Jim Johnson ? RP - BAL - The Orioles have another week to trade George Sherrill, so Johnson might be worth grabbing just in case George gets moved. Johnson would likely get the first shot at the closing job, and while it's unlikely he'll maintain the success he's enjoyed for the first 100 games of the season, he could make a valuable trade chip until he falters. He has 17 holds so far this season, so he can handle pressure. I'd recommend adding Johnson just until the trade deadline, but the closing situation in Baltimore could wind up being a committee: Jamie Walker, Chad Bradford and Fernando Cabrera are all candidates to be in the mix.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues.

8. David Purcey ? SP ? TOR - One of the biggest knocks against Purcey has been his command, but so far this year he's posted a 121/34 K/BB ratio in 117 innings at Triple-A Syracuse. He's sporting a 2.69 ERA in his 19 minor league starts, and now will get a chance to show he can maintain the gains in the major leagues.
Recommendation - Worth consideration in AL-only leagues.