Anyone place this type of sports wager?

jimmycrackcorn

jimmycrackcorn

EOG Senior Member
Example Only:

Game "X" MLB Baseball

The Run Line would look something like this:

Team A +140
Team B -1.5 +150

potential wager

One unit wager straight bet on Team A: +140
One unit wager straight bet on Team B: -1.5 +150

?????????????

If so, what are your thoughts on using this? Anyone had problems?

JCC
 
jimmycrackcorn

jimmycrackcorn

EOG Senior Member
Re: Anyone place this type of sports wager?

Sorry.....Correction....

Example Only:

Game "X" MLB Baseball

The Lines would look something like this:

Moneyline Team A +140
Runline Team B -1.5 +150

potential wager

One unit wager straight bet on Team A: +140
One unit wager straight bet on Team B: -1.5 +150

?????????????

If so, what are your thoughts on using this? Anyone had problems?

JCC
 
JT McGEE

JT McGEE

EOG Addicted
Re: Anyone place this type of sports wager?

Very little reward for the risk. IF you win you are either +0.4 or +0.5 but when you lose you are down 2.0. With this metheod you would have to hit at a rate of 4:1 in order to break even.

Stay away IMO.
 
JT McGEE

JT McGEE

EOG Addicted
Re: Anyone place this type of sports wager?

Nope. With you having to hit at such a high rate just to break even. They will gladly take your money.
 
JT McGEE

JT McGEE

EOG Addicted
Re: Anyone place this type of sports wager?

Hell If you still want to do it, I will take your money. You might has well just cut me a check now.
 
jimmycrackcorn

jimmycrackcorn

EOG Senior Member
Re: Anyone place this type of sports wager?

Ya might wanna re-think that one man......If I cut you a check for what I have wagered doing this, then you cut me one for what I had won........Uh, you'de be on the bad end of the stick by a considerable amount.

You are right about the low reward portion. I see the same thing. Typically around a 20% return when u win if u pick the right games. The catch is that over the long run, dogz win between 40-46% and Heavy favored run lines somewhere around 40 or so I think. Anyway, bottom line is that you win unless the fav does not cover the line and I am finding that hapnin less than 20% of the time for me. It's actually been closer to 12-14%. Of course, the object is to find games(usually a couple a day) that payout +140 or more for both the dog and the favz runline. If you were to do it for games where the +odds were weak then you would certainly lose over the long haul... JCC
 
JT McGEE

JT McGEE

EOG Addicted
Re: Anyone place this type of sports wager?

I am just having some fun with you.

If you can pick the games correctly then that's just as good as being a top notch capper. I am just saying that you have to hit at about a rate of 80% just to turn a slight profit.

If it's working for you then keep doing it. I would love to see you post your selections so I can follow along and see how you do it.
 
BigDaddy

BigDaddy

EOG Master
Re: Anyone place this type of sports wager?

no book would care if you were dumb enough to bet these but IMHO if you were going to bet these betting them at the same book is dumb also unless the book you bet them at has the best line for both bets you should shop for the best lines for both of the bets to maximize your so called profit on these bets
 
BigDaddy

BigDaddy

EOG Master
Re: Anyone place this type of sports wager?

jimmycrackcorn said:
Yeah, I'm that dumb, and yeah I just made 20 bucks on another game!

JCC
Click to expand...


Please feel free to post these money making plays


games that fit your range today

SF 1-0 :hung

Chicago 7-2 winner:+excited-



yesterday

cincy 2-1 would be a killer
baltimore 5-4 also a killer

if you dodged these land mines your doing great:+textinb3
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: Anyone place this type of sports wager?

jimmycrackcorn said:
Yeah, I'm that dumb, and yeah I just made 20 bucks on another game!

JCC
Click to expand...
Jimmy, I just read a study on these situations that show a long-term loss. However, they may not have used the parameters you describe, i.e. +140 or better on both bets. GL:cheers

When's the next hockey parlay?:+textinb3 :+textinb3 :+textinb3
 
jimmycrackcorn

jimmycrackcorn

EOG Senior Member
Re: Anyone place this type of sports wager?

Munson, yeah, if you just randomly placed this type of wager it is a guaranteed long term loss. Gotta look for the games close to the +140's and above as much as possible. Usually 1 a day or so in MLB, sometimes more but I never play if the odds on either side below +130....ever!!! Again, it is long haul program.
JCC
 
jimmycrackcorn

jimmycrackcorn

EOG Senior Member
Re: Anyone place this type of sports wager?

Big D,

Sunday, my MLB play is :

LAA -1.5 +145(one unit)
Seattle +142(one unit)

I'll see how it goes...was the only game I saw that fit the wager model that ends in long term profitability. Have a great one!

JCC
 
BigDaddy

BigDaddy

EOG Master
Re: Anyone place this type of sports wager?

jimmycrackcorn said:
Big D,

Sunday, my MLB play is :

LAA -1.5 +145(one unit)
Seattle +142(one unit)

I'll see how it goes...was the only game I saw that fit the wager model that ends in long term profitability. Have a great one!

JCC
Click to expand...


nice call:cheers good thing you didnt bet detroit:doh1 keep them coming this is interesting
 
B

BSims

EOG Addicted
Re: Anyone place this type of sports wager?

munson15 said:
Jimmy, I just read a study on these situations that show a long-term loss. However, they may not have used the parameters you describe, i.e. +140 or better on both bets. /quote]

Munson, are you refering to the recent discussion on this subject in the BASEBALL board? Or have you found the results of a more detailed study?

I did a study last year and found games where this appears to be a good approach. It was profitable. I am going to re-evaluate the study with another years data and a slightly different approach to identifying the games in a few weeks.
Click to expand...
 
jimmycrackcorn

jimmycrackcorn

EOG Senior Member
Re: Anyone place this type of sports wager?

It was a 22.5% return for my total wagers on those lines(2 single wagers)My total wagers were $357.

$357
x 22.5%
$80.325

JCC
 
jimmycrackcorn

jimmycrackcorn

EOG Senior Member
Re: Anyone place this type of sports wager?

Yesterday my play using this method was Brewers and Cubs. Was sweatin it out but it pulled thru. The profit was 21%. Today it is the Dodgers -1.5 and the Giants. If win the profit will either be 21% or 17% depending on who wins. JCC
 
BigDaddy

BigDaddy

EOG Master
Re: Anyone place this type of sports wager?

jimmycrackcorn said:
Big D,

Sunday, my MLB play is :

LAA -1.5 +145(one unit)
Seattle +142(one unit)

I'll see how it goes...was the only game I saw that fit the wager model that ends in long term profitability. Have a great one!

JCC
Click to expand...

jimmy im still trying to figure out how you made $80 when you posted this as your plays

to me that means

la -1- 100-145
seattle 100-142

profit $45

can you please explain your method?
 
jimmycrackcorn

jimmycrackcorn

EOG Senior Member
Re: Anyone place this type of sports wager?

I placed two single wagers of $178.50 which totals $357.
I won $80 from the wagers.

1. wager 1 @$178.5 x 1.45 = $258.82(won)
2. wager 2 @$178.5(lost) x 1.42 = $253.47

$258.82
- $178.50(lost wager)
--------------------
$80.32 (22%)

Hope this helps...
 
BigDaddy

BigDaddy

EOG Master
Re: Anyone place this type of sports wager?

so am i to assume when you post this

Sunday, my MLB play is :

LAA -1.5 +145(one unit)
Seattle +142(one unit)


you really mean this

1. wager 1 @$178.5 x 1.45 = $258.82(won)
2. wager 2 @$178.5(lost) x 1.42 = $253.47


thanks i understand it now:cheers
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: Anyone place this type of sports wager?

Munson, are you refering to the recent discussion on this subject in the BASEBALL board? Or have you found the results of a more detailed study?

I did a study last year and found games where this appears to be a good approach. It was profitable. I am going to re-evaluate the study with another years data and a slightly different approach to identifying the games in a few weeks.[/quote]
Sorry I didn't respond sooner Sims. :doh1 I believe the numbers came from our talk over there, yes. I've been reading so much material at so many sites, I'm getting a little goofy.:+clueless But the way Jimmy is doing it really narrows down the situation and I like the odds.

The one I was pushing for in the other discussion was to take a +1.5 run line and then the fave straight up hoping to hit a middle. You were involved and chimed in w/ some #'s maybe? Again I apologize, no excuses I f__ked up.

Would love to see some data on what Jimmy's workinig on. Keep it up Jimmy, GL to you. :cheers
 
JT McGEE

JT McGEE

EOG Addicted
Re: Anyone place this type of sports wager?

Ok JCC. SO today you are

Dodgers -1.5 +??
and
Giants ML +???

I don't really care about your % profit, I want to track it in units. Please let me know what the Vig is and I will track it.

so far YTD 1 game played +0.45 units
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: Anyone place this type of sports wager?

Cubs-Brewers and Dodgers-Giants meets the criteria for tonight?
 
jimmycrackcorn

jimmycrackcorn

EOG Senior Member
Re: Anyone place this type of sports wager?

Since April 19th here is the ones I have played and the record thus far.

Date Teams W/L

4/19 White Sox/Rangers W
4/20 Mariners/Angels W
4/21 Washington/Florida W
4/22 Brewers/Cubs W
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: Anyone place this type of sports wager?

I'm going to play them tonight just so we can banter, and I can have an excuse to stare at your avatar a little more.
:LMAO :LMAO :LMAO :LMAO :LMAO:LMAO:LMAO:LMAO:LMAO :LMAO :LMAO

GL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
jimmycrackcorn

jimmycrackcorn

EOG Senior Member
Re: Anyone place this type of sports wager?

Munson, u so funny. I was all ready to sit and watch the Rangers and Mariners but got rained out. Made me madder than a legless Ethopian watching a powdered donut roll down a hillside.!!!!! DAMMIT
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: Anyone place this type of sports wager?

jimmycrackcorn said:
Munson, u so funny. I was all ready to sit and watch the Rangers and Mariners but got rained out. Made me madder than a legless Ethopian watching a powdered donut roll down a hillside.!!!!! DAMMIT
Click to expand...
:LMAO :LMAO :LMAO :LMAO :LMAO :LMAO :LMAO :LMAO :LMAO


I'll check w/ you later. Taking my 8-year old to see the AAA Yankees!
 
B

BSims

EOG Addicted
Re: Anyone place this type of sports wager?

Munson,

Using the system I developed last season, there were two picks tonight;
Cinncy+128 StLouis-1.5 +165
Detroit-1.5+155 LA Angels +102

There was a middle for a bit;

NY Yankees -158 and Tampa Bay+1.5 +103
(But, I couldn't get these where I had funds.)
 
B

BSims

EOG Addicted
Re: Anyone place this type of sports wager?

I took another look at the Cubs Milwaukee game. It does show that one could expect a positive return at Milwaukee+146 and Cubs-1.5 +140.

I didn't take these numbers because the expected return was below my normal cutoff.
 
Santo

Santo

EOG Veteran
Re: Anyone place this type of sports wager?

Let's make it real simple.

The books know what 1.5 runs is worth, and have done a ton more work on establishing what it is worth than you have.
 
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