What a polarizing thread? Lot's of analogies, still looking for one that fits. Let me tell you where a lifetime record will get you. No analogy needed outside of sports betting. Handicapper unknown has a 60% lifetime record at the NFL. He has maintained that for 20+ years. Maybe had a few losing years in those 20, but overall a winner, lifetime. So you expect that to continue. So does the capper. But surprise, the NFL does a violent swing, and all of the spots the lifetime winning capper used to win at lose. All of the home dogs, most of the dogs for that matter. All of the chalky square favorite teams cash. But lifetime winning capper just sticks with his methods, tried and true. And he loses, and loses, and loses. It never goes back to the good old dog days. Just a bad year, but still winning lifetime. Then year two, even worse. More chalk, more overs, and all of the prime time games the public teams win. They win and cover. Hey we just had two horrible sub 30% years with a lifetime winner?
What happened? Lifetime records amount to squat in this what have you done for me lately business. Games, rules, teams, even the leagues themselves change over time. Some cappers adapt, and win today, some can't. If I was weighting records, I would value the capper that is winning right now, with fundamentally sound plays, over any lifetime achievements. I am going past 30 years doing this, and seen so many come and go. The best cappers and linemakers to me existed back in the handwritten ticket days. There was no internet, no widely available information. No offshore, no computers, nothing. I had more of an edge in the Martin line days, with his solid lines, than I could ever get today.
This business is not the stock market, or selling cars. It is not about a resume with 20 years of experience. It is what have you done for me lately. He is now 3-0, have all been legit wins with very nice writeups and analysis. What bearing would any past record have on his output right now, today? None. Just like the 3-0. Win another one Dave, or this fickle bunch will turn on you faster than you can say, I knew he was a scammer.
Best Wishes...OF :cheers
Better take a long look at what The Shrink has assembled here in the bases forum. When you can make choices based on input from quality handicappers, and pay nothing, you should appreciate the gift.