150th Run for the Roses

Valuist

EOG Master
Forward move, regression, pair, etc.

All terms popularized by the "sheet guys."

I wonder how much interpretation is used in assigning each number or if the numbers are strictly mechanical.

Do you see where I'm going here?

The creators can massage the numbers to promote situations where sheet readers respond positively.

I always thought the groups like Ragozin and Thorograph had the best of both worlds: If a customer won money, he was buying the most accurate set of numbers in the game.

And if a customer lost money, he simply did not have the experience or wherewithal to properly interpret the data.

I know with the Beyer figs, they will also go by a projection. I've heard Randy Moss (not THAT one), Nick Tammaro and Beyer himself mention how if a race fig makes no sense, they will alter it to "fit'. I used to make figs for the Chicago circuit all thru the 90s and early 2000s. I would also project figs if the race number made no sense. Its never going to always be right, but it makes sense. I also know the Beyer group may go back weeks later and change a fig as they get more evidence (more horses run back).
 

jasson621

EOG Dedicated
I know with the Beyer figs, they will also go by a projection. I've heard Randy Moss (not THAT one), Nick Tammaro and Beyer himself mention how if a race fig makes no sense, they will alter it to "fit'. I used to make figs for the Chicago circuit all thru the 90s and early 2000s. I would also project figs if the race number made no sense. Its never going to always be right, but it makes sense. I also know the Beyer group may go back weeks later and change a fig as they get more evidence (more horses run back).
yes also known as Aikenite syndrome
 

jasson621

EOG Dedicated
Please explain.
Saratoga at times can be like Ruidoso on trial days a rain storm and a wind switch can change the track drastically. Aikenite won his maiden race and got a 59 Beyer( someone can correct me on exact# but this is close) horses kept coming out of that race that were up the track and were winning with 80 Beyer marks. Aikenite was a victim of the ever changing track. His Beyer got adjusted a few times and I think his 59 ended up as an 80 or so.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
That horse that finished 5th...wow


Just watched the replay again.

T O Password, the "other" Japanese horse, was bounced around real good over the first half-mile or so.

He then launched seven wide from the back of the pack only to be too far away from the leaders in the end.

If he had been within contact of the top three horses, it would not have helped that Japanese jock Kazushi Kimura dropped his whip at the furlong pole.

Still amazed at the close finish of the race.

The official margins separating the top three horses: Nose and nose.
 

blueline

EOG Master
Obviously not unusual to get a forward move in start 3 but to do it in the Derby with all of the issues involved was impressive.

They clearly have figured something out.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Hard to gauge Derby performances these days.

In the 1980's and early 1990's, horsemen believed a strong two-year-old foundation was necessary for a leading Kentucky Derby contender.

Enter Bob Baffert who simply wanted his horses to run their lifetime best on the first Saturday in May, no matter the careful preparation before the race or sometimes the dire consequences after the race.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
The Derby is a bit like the MLB postseason.

Make the race and then hope for the best.

The best horse doesn't win the Derby, the lucky one does.
 

blueline

EOG Master
How many from the Derby

2024 Preakness Stakes odds​


Muth 11-10
Mystik Dan 3-1
Tuscan Gold 5-1
Imagination 5-1
Just Steel 10-1
Seize the Gray 10-1
Copper Tax 16-1
Uncle Heavy 20-1
Mugatu 33-1

*2024 Preakness Stakes odds provided at cbssports.com as of 5/10/24.
 

blueline

EOG Master
Stay in your lane kelce:

“I’m sorry everyone, wasn’t trying to get people riled up,” he posted. “I really thought it was just known that in the 70s steroid use was rampant. I’m not trying to take away from Secretariat’s, or anyone from that era's legacy. You’re right, without proof it is unfair to assume these things publicly, I apologize.”


“The biggest misconception [Kelce] had is that the large heart had to be due to steroids,” she says. “It was not chemically or pathologically enlarged—just a genetic gift of nature that enabled him to run farther and faster than any horse in the last century. This large-heart trait has been researched by equine geneticists who have documented its occurrence in the bloodlines of both Secretariat’s forbears and his descendants. It has zero to do with steroids or any other drugs.”

The late William Nack, the former SI writer who chronicled Secretariat like no other, wrote about the results of Big Red’s necropsy. He noted that the heart “wasn’t pathologically enlarged. All the chambers and the valves were normal. It was just larger. I think it told us why he was able to do what he did.”
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
How many from the Derby

2024 Preakness Stakes odds​


Muth 11-10
Mystik Dan 3-1
Tuscan Gold 5-1
Imagination 5-1
Just Steel 10-1
Seize the Gray 10-1
Copper Tax 16-1
Uncle Heavy 20-1
Mugatu 33-1

*2024 Preakness Stakes odds provided at cbssports.com as of 5/10/24.

The short price on Muth may be the only price that pays.
 
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