Until the Bucs decided to play Brady and the other starters and the Atl ML plummeted, this presented a really interesting game theoretic problem. Each entrant could have chosen a different team which produces different EV.
I use MLs as a good gauge of win probability (adjusting to the fair value win% and deducting the probability of a loss by tie). If any of the 3 were to have a radically different perspective, my analysis could be used with their model. Ignores the different tax consequences of the winnings.
Early MLs at BM were Atl -315, Jax -300, Sea -300. Now its simpler as Atl is down to -164, Jax -290, Sea -290 (@Circa). Games have been set at Jax 5:15PM PT Sat, Atl 10:00AM PT Sun, and Sea 1:25PM PT Sun. All picks will be known before the first kickoff.
There were essentially 3 scenarios:
1) All chose Jax (only reasonable pick available to all 3)
2) JED choses Sea, other 2 both choose Jax (or possibly both Atl if Bucs situation changes drastically)
3) JED choses Sea, the other 2 split their picks (Jags, Atl, now very unlikely)
So as WW points out, $6.133M (or a chop at $2.044M) is likely to be extremely significant to all 3. Using the same ratios, if $60 were at stake with an entry fee of $0.01, most would gamble to try to be the sole survivor. Most likely JED has the only useful option and limiting variance is quite useful.
So here is the tradeoff: Play Jax and chop, EV is $2.044M or gamble with Sea for outright win:
Take Jw as the Jax win% and Sw as Seattle's win%, then chop + win outright:
JED EV = $6.133M * [{Jw*Sw+(1-Jw)*(1-Sw)}/3 + Sw*(1-Jw)}}
and
BROWNA/Enemy Within EV = $6.133M * [{Jw*Sw+(1-Jw)*(1-Sw)}/3 + Jw*(1-Sw)/2}}
using current win%, JED EV =$2.462M and BROWNA/Enemy Within EV = $1.835M.
So, is the difference of $418K worth the risk of Jax winning and Sea losing (which of course can also be hedged)? The answer depends on JED's risk tolerance and hedge funds available. The simplest hedge is to bet on Jax ML and on Rams ML (or a middle with around +6.5 points, possible parlay of the two) plus separate hedge on a Seattle/LAR tie.