ONLY THE STRONG SURVIVE.....Winning teams on "Wild Card Weekend" must avoid a sense of satisfaction heading into this weekend's divisional playoff round.
Round One winners typically face a difficult task in Round Two. The opening- week survivors must travel to enemy territory to meet a well-rested division champion sporting a lofty record.
This coming weekend, the home teams - Indianapolis, San Diego, New Orleans and Minnesota - are favored by a combined 24 points. Last weekend, the four home teams - Cincinnati, Dallas, New England and Arizona - were favored by a combined seven points ('Zona closed a 2.5-point underdog at most sports books).
Questions abound heading into the second week of NFL playoff action: Will the top-ranked Jets defense, led by lockdown cornerback Darrelle Revis, perform well against the red-hot Chargers and their vertical passing game? Will Dallas coach Wade Phillips and quarterback Tony Romo be satisfied and relieved to finally win a playoff game, and regress off their huge performance against rival Philadelphia? Will the Baltimore defense parlay its victory over Tom Brady with a win over Peyton Manning, if Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco completes only four passes for 34 yards? Will Arizona duplicate last season's surprise playoff run in what could be quarterback Kurt Warner's final season?
NFL playoff questions are simple; the answers can be elusive.
SCORING OUTBURSTS.....No matter the sport, a team's ability to score unanswered points is the mark of a championship-caliber club. Likewise, teams that surrender points without responding on the offensive end are found near the bottom of the league standings. Shrewd gamblers focus on teams that can simultaneously produce points and prevent them.
Basketball is often referred to as a "game of runs." Scoring runs of 8-0, 10-2 or 12-4 are commonplace. Scoring outbursts in football are less frequent, but far more significant.
Check out last weekend's NFL playoff games. The New York Jets scored 21 unanswered points after Cincinnati jumped to an early 7-0 lead. The Jets won, 24-14. Dallas beat Philadelphia 34-14, thanks to an explosive 24-point second quarter. Baltimore pounced on New England with a 24-point first quarter en route to a convincing 33-14 victory. Arizona scored 17 unanswered points to start the game against Green Bay, forcing the Packers to play catch-up the remainder of the contest. In a game Green Bay never led, Arizona survived in overtime, 51-45.
Scoring runs not only provide a cushion on the scoreboard, but they also supply all-important momentum for the remainder of the game.
WHAT A GAME, AIKMAN, WHAT A GREAT GAME.....Those were the words of Fox broadcaster Joe Buck after Green Bay scored early in the fourth quarter to narrow Arizona's lead to 38-31.
Buck made a common mistake committed by many broadcasters. He mistook a high-scoring game for a well-played game.
Intelligent gamblers know better. We understand most high-scoring games are not played at a high level. Give me the defensive efforts of Baltimore, Dallas or the New York Jets over the pathetic defense displayed yesterday in Glendale, Arizona.
DULL DUNGY.....It took four months, but we finally heard an interesting line from Tony Dungy, the coach-turned-analyst whose commentary is featured on NBC's NFL telecasts. When asked to comment on Pete Carroll's impending move from college football to pro football, Dungy said, "Carroll will find it's far more difficult to coach rich 25-year-olds rather than poor 19-year-olds."
FUNNY, NOT FACTUAL.....Poor 19-year-olds playing sports at USC? I don't think so. Dungy must be unaware of USC's recent problems with the NCAA. I'd wager Reggie Bush, O.J. Mayo and Joe McKnight never ordered from the Dollar Menu at McDonald's.
ADDITION BY SUBTRACTION.....No single individual (or four individuals, for that matter) is bigger than Tennessee's men's basketball program. Late last week, Tennessee head coach Bruce Pearl dismissed starting forward Tyler Smith from the team and indefinitely suspended center Brian Williams and guards Cameron Tatum and Melvin Goins following their arrests for unlawful weapon possessions. The quartet accounted for 32 points and 14 rebounds through Tennessee's first 12 games.
The Vols pulled off a mild upset yesterday when they bested previously-undefeated Kansas, 76-68. The short-handed five-point underdog, with a rotation that featured three walk-ons, played inspired basketball before a faithful crowd of 21,936 in Knoxville.
CRITICISM FOR ALAN BOSTON.....Most listeners appreciated Boston's debut last week on "Winning Wednesdays," an Internet radio show dedicated to sports bettors worldwide.
EOG contributor Gary S. fell in the minority. Gary was not impressed with Boston's monologue dealing with college basketball's coaching hierarchy.
"Be sure to challenge Boston when he starts comparing Mike Krzyzewski with Stew Morrill," said Gary. "Boston is comparing apples and oranges. Coach K is competing for a national title every year, while Morrill's goal is simply to make the tournament. It's a ridiculous comparison."
IT'S THE BIG PICTURE, NOT THE SNAPSHOT.....Professional sports bettor Ken Weitzner, aka "The Shrink," doesn't win every week or every month. He does win every year, however. Weitzner has recorded profits betting sports each of the past 10 years.
"The Shrink" credits his sports betting success to the knowledge gained from Billy Walters, a high-stakes sports gambler willing to wager a million dollars on a single game. Weitzner served as Walters' understudy for more than five years.
Weitzner released three plays last week on his Internet radio show. All three plays lost in miserable fashion.
Several of Weitzner's followers voiced displeasure with the 0-3 performance. The sour reaction highlights one of the most glaring errors committed by amateur gamblers: drawing erroneous conclusions from a small sample of results.
Don't judge Weitzner on the basis of three plays. Instead, judge Weitzner on his 2009 documented radio record of 30-19-2. Or judge Weitzner on his performance in the Money Talks Invitational, his title run in 2008 and his appearance in the semis in 2009. Or better yet, judge Weitzner on his impressive streak of ten straight winning seasons. It's the big picture that counts, not the snapshot.
COMING FRIDAY.....I'll reveal my favorite angles for Saturday's college basketball card.
JK
Round One winners typically face a difficult task in Round Two. The opening- week survivors must travel to enemy territory to meet a well-rested division champion sporting a lofty record.
This coming weekend, the home teams - Indianapolis, San Diego, New Orleans and Minnesota - are favored by a combined 24 points. Last weekend, the four home teams - Cincinnati, Dallas, New England and Arizona - were favored by a combined seven points ('Zona closed a 2.5-point underdog at most sports books).
Questions abound heading into the second week of NFL playoff action: Will the top-ranked Jets defense, led by lockdown cornerback Darrelle Revis, perform well against the red-hot Chargers and their vertical passing game? Will Dallas coach Wade Phillips and quarterback Tony Romo be satisfied and relieved to finally win a playoff game, and regress off their huge performance against rival Philadelphia? Will the Baltimore defense parlay its victory over Tom Brady with a win over Peyton Manning, if Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco completes only four passes for 34 yards? Will Arizona duplicate last season's surprise playoff run in what could be quarterback Kurt Warner's final season?
NFL playoff questions are simple; the answers can be elusive.
SCORING OUTBURSTS.....No matter the sport, a team's ability to score unanswered points is the mark of a championship-caliber club. Likewise, teams that surrender points without responding on the offensive end are found near the bottom of the league standings. Shrewd gamblers focus on teams that can simultaneously produce points and prevent them.
Basketball is often referred to as a "game of runs." Scoring runs of 8-0, 10-2 or 12-4 are commonplace. Scoring outbursts in football are less frequent, but far more significant.
Check out last weekend's NFL playoff games. The New York Jets scored 21 unanswered points after Cincinnati jumped to an early 7-0 lead. The Jets won, 24-14. Dallas beat Philadelphia 34-14, thanks to an explosive 24-point second quarter. Baltimore pounced on New England with a 24-point first quarter en route to a convincing 33-14 victory. Arizona scored 17 unanswered points to start the game against Green Bay, forcing the Packers to play catch-up the remainder of the contest. In a game Green Bay never led, Arizona survived in overtime, 51-45.
Scoring runs not only provide a cushion on the scoreboard, but they also supply all-important momentum for the remainder of the game.
WHAT A GAME, AIKMAN, WHAT A GREAT GAME.....Those were the words of Fox broadcaster Joe Buck after Green Bay scored early in the fourth quarter to narrow Arizona's lead to 38-31.
Buck made a common mistake committed by many broadcasters. He mistook a high-scoring game for a well-played game.
Intelligent gamblers know better. We understand most high-scoring games are not played at a high level. Give me the defensive efforts of Baltimore, Dallas or the New York Jets over the pathetic defense displayed yesterday in Glendale, Arizona.
DULL DUNGY.....It took four months, but we finally heard an interesting line from Tony Dungy, the coach-turned-analyst whose commentary is featured on NBC's NFL telecasts. When asked to comment on Pete Carroll's impending move from college football to pro football, Dungy said, "Carroll will find it's far more difficult to coach rich 25-year-olds rather than poor 19-year-olds."
FUNNY, NOT FACTUAL.....Poor 19-year-olds playing sports at USC? I don't think so. Dungy must be unaware of USC's recent problems with the NCAA. I'd wager Reggie Bush, O.J. Mayo and Joe McKnight never ordered from the Dollar Menu at McDonald's.
ADDITION BY SUBTRACTION.....No single individual (or four individuals, for that matter) is bigger than Tennessee's men's basketball program. Late last week, Tennessee head coach Bruce Pearl dismissed starting forward Tyler Smith from the team and indefinitely suspended center Brian Williams and guards Cameron Tatum and Melvin Goins following their arrests for unlawful weapon possessions. The quartet accounted for 32 points and 14 rebounds through Tennessee's first 12 games.
The Vols pulled off a mild upset yesterday when they bested previously-undefeated Kansas, 76-68. The short-handed five-point underdog, with a rotation that featured three walk-ons, played inspired basketball before a faithful crowd of 21,936 in Knoxville.
CRITICISM FOR ALAN BOSTON.....Most listeners appreciated Boston's debut last week on "Winning Wednesdays," an Internet radio show dedicated to sports bettors worldwide.
EOG contributor Gary S. fell in the minority. Gary was not impressed with Boston's monologue dealing with college basketball's coaching hierarchy.
"Be sure to challenge Boston when he starts comparing Mike Krzyzewski with Stew Morrill," said Gary. "Boston is comparing apples and oranges. Coach K is competing for a national title every year, while Morrill's goal is simply to make the tournament. It's a ridiculous comparison."
IT'S THE BIG PICTURE, NOT THE SNAPSHOT.....Professional sports bettor Ken Weitzner, aka "The Shrink," doesn't win every week or every month. He does win every year, however. Weitzner has recorded profits betting sports each of the past 10 years.
"The Shrink" credits his sports betting success to the knowledge gained from Billy Walters, a high-stakes sports gambler willing to wager a million dollars on a single game. Weitzner served as Walters' understudy for more than five years.
Weitzner released three plays last week on his Internet radio show. All three plays lost in miserable fashion.
Several of Weitzner's followers voiced displeasure with the 0-3 performance. The sour reaction highlights one of the most glaring errors committed by amateur gamblers: drawing erroneous conclusions from a small sample of results.
Don't judge Weitzner on the basis of three plays. Instead, judge Weitzner on his 2009 documented radio record of 30-19-2. Or judge Weitzner on his performance in the Money Talks Invitational, his title run in 2008 and his appearance in the semis in 2009. Or better yet, judge Weitzner on his impressive streak of ten straight winning seasons. It's the big picture that counts, not the snapshot.
COMING FRIDAY.....I'll reveal my favorite angles for Saturday's college basketball card.
JK
