Pats at -210
- Thread starter WildBill
- Start date
5 star bomb
EOG Master
Re: Pats at -210
Colts, Jags, Chargers, Steelers all can beat NE... I dont see much value at all in NE to tell you the truth
Colts, Jags, Chargers, Steelers all can beat NE... I dont see much value at all in NE to tell you the truth
WildBill
2
Re: Pats at -210
Could beat? Sure anyone COULD beat the Pats, but realistically would say it will happen? I just don't see it. People may hate to admit it, but this is one of the best teams ever and the competition quite simply is not.
Could beat? Sure anyone COULD beat the Pats, but realistically would say it will happen? I just don't see it. People may hate to admit it, but this is one of the best teams ever and the competition quite simply is not.
TomBrady#1
EOG Dedicated
Re: Pats at -210
EXACTLY! Pats are beatable. Still undefeated blinds everyone but they can be beat and have weakness. With that being said they are still the favorites. -210 is decent for sure. THe championship game is only one game away for the pats. AND you could always take Indy +8 at that point and hope to win in both bets!
EXACTLY! Pats are beatable. Still undefeated blinds everyone but they can be beat and have weakness. With that being said they are still the favorites. -210 is decent for sure. THe championship game is only one game away for the pats. AND you could always take Indy +8 at that point and hope to win in both bets!
WildBill
2
Re: Pats at -210
I look at it as an investment. I could easily see the Pats being a 13-14 point favorite in both of their games. At those prices -210 is a good price.
Think of it this way, what seems more likely: Pats winning these two games or did the Red Sox winning the WS over the Rockies seem more likely? I think the Pats getting 2 wins seems stronger than the Sox were to win the Series.
I look at it as an investment. I could easily see the Pats being a 13-14 point favorite in both of their games. At those prices -210 is a good price.
Think of it this way, what seems more likely: Pats winning these two games or did the Red Sox winning the WS over the Rockies seem more likely? I think the Pats getting 2 wins seems stronger than the Sox were to win the Series.
Re: Pats at -210
playing the games individually would make more sense.
at -210 you are laying for example 2100 to win 1000.
if they are 4-1 favorites in each game (a complete guess) then you lay the 2100 to win 525, then take the 2625 to win 656 and have 3281 left over instead of 3100.
i think the patriots will be less than 4-1 money line against the colts, steelers, sd, or jax. so the money there will be even better individually.
WAY too much risk vs reward either way imho, but if you're going to play it at least do it individually for a better payout. and who knows, in the first game the pats might win and brady gets hurt, then you get much better money for the afc championship if you still want it.
playing the games individually would make more sense.
at -210 you are laying for example 2100 to win 1000.
if they are 4-1 favorites in each game (a complete guess) then you lay the 2100 to win 525, then take the 2625 to win 656 and have 3281 left over instead of 3100.
i think the patriots will be less than 4-1 money line against the colts, steelers, sd, or jax. so the money there will be even better individually.
WAY too much risk vs reward either way imho, but if you're going to play it at least do it individually for a better payout. and who knows, in the first game the pats might win and brady gets hurt, then you get much better money for the afc championship if you still want it.
WildBill
2
Re: Pats at -210
Laying 210 doesn't scare me one bit. If I lose it no big deal, I lay such prices in the NHL all the time and on occasion in MLB. I just think its a good value. People are looking for ways to take shots at these guys because they don't want them to win them all, but they just give me no reason to think they won't win them all. Did the Dolphins or any other great team of the past go on the road and beat the best of the other conference and the clear second best team in their own conference?
Now will they cover big spreads, I don't know. But if they go out and win big in the first game, which teams with the bye often do, then the sky is the limit for the spread in the 2nd game. The line will be determined by how each team looks, its impossible to predict really where it will end up. However playing at home against a Colts team hurt by injuries it is hard for me to believe it won't be double digits. There still are a lot of people that will back the Pats at any price and they will come out in bigger numbers for the playoffs. So don't put too much into efforts at trying to price this right now based on what you think of the teams today. Price it based on these being two public-dominated bets with a team that has attracted a flood of public money all year.
Laying 210 doesn't scare me one bit. If I lose it no big deal, I lay such prices in the NHL all the time and on occasion in MLB. I just think its a good value. People are looking for ways to take shots at these guys because they don't want them to win them all, but they just give me no reason to think they won't win them all. Did the Dolphins or any other great team of the past go on the road and beat the best of the other conference and the clear second best team in their own conference?
Now will they cover big spreads, I don't know. But if they go out and win big in the first game, which teams with the bye often do, then the sky is the limit for the spread in the 2nd game. The line will be determined by how each team looks, its impossible to predict really where it will end up. However playing at home against a Colts team hurt by injuries it is hard for me to believe it won't be double digits. There still are a lot of people that will back the Pats at any price and they will come out in bigger numbers for the playoffs. So don't put too much into efforts at trying to price this right now based on what you think of the teams today. Price it based on these being two public-dominated bets with a team that has attracted a flood of public money all year.
Flamingo kid
Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: Pats at -210
It seems like money is no object for you and you want the prestige of holding an AFC Championship ticket. Read M Mike's post. Its ok to lay 210 only if its much better value than you would get if you bet both games individually. You want the flexibility.
Also, you don't want to be obligated to have to endorse New England in the Championship game if you don't like what you see in the game before that. Pats can win unimpressively and then you might not want to be holding a ticket on them. I've learned that betting a game at a time is the way to go..
It seems like money is no object for you and you want the prestige of holding an AFC Championship ticket. Read M Mike's post. Its ok to lay 210 only if its much better value than you would get if you bet both games individually. You want the flexibility.
Also, you don't want to be obligated to have to endorse New England in the Championship game if you don't like what you see in the game before that. Pats can win unimpressively and then you might not want to be holding a ticket on them. I've learned that betting a game at a time is the way to go..
WildBill
2
Re: Pats at -210
Funny, you trying to teach me a lesson here? Whatever. There is nothing I would see in one game that would change my mind short of a bunch of injuries. Suckers change their opinions of teams at this time of year, certainly not sharps. There is absolutely nothing to learn right now that you could not have learned in the 16 weeks about any team.
I will add in the fact that this team finds ways to win as a factor of its makeup and players makes it even better. I don't know if I want to lay big numbers on them, but I am fairly confident as an educated observer it will be awfully tough to knock them off at this point. People are making mistakes thinking later season games against teams who wanted to make their season by knocking these guys off was truly indicative of talent. Every time this team felt it was challenged and needed to respond it did. Every situation they needed to come through, against great teams and not so great teams they found a way.
Here is the math though since I do know a thing or two about betting into money lines. I will assume 11.5 for game one, which converts at fair value to -650 or so, or -800/+550 with vig for an estimate. Considering it is playoffs I will lower that a bit as the books will take on more NE money against the spread and more dog on the ML. So lets say I would have to lay -600. Then I will be generous and say -9 for the AFC Championship, even though I think a very good case to state the number could come in easily at -11 or more. At -9 the fair price is around -400, lets say -450/+380 with vig. Once again doing a little reduction I figure -400.
At -600 my 210 would win me $35. I would bet $245 at -400, which wins me $61. So I make $96 instead of $100 at these numbers, meaning -210 offers some value even with me being generous. Put simply though if both games come in at double digits, and I think there is a good probability of it, then -210 offers good value. Adding in my handicapping assessment and this bet looks even better. I am just looking for a -200 or better number and I will hit it.
Funny, you trying to teach me a lesson here? Whatever. There is nothing I would see in one game that would change my mind short of a bunch of injuries. Suckers change their opinions of teams at this time of year, certainly not sharps. There is absolutely nothing to learn right now that you could not have learned in the 16 weeks about any team.
I will add in the fact that this team finds ways to win as a factor of its makeup and players makes it even better. I don't know if I want to lay big numbers on them, but I am fairly confident as an educated observer it will be awfully tough to knock them off at this point. People are making mistakes thinking later season games against teams who wanted to make their season by knocking these guys off was truly indicative of talent. Every time this team felt it was challenged and needed to respond it did. Every situation they needed to come through, against great teams and not so great teams they found a way.
Here is the math though since I do know a thing or two about betting into money lines. I will assume 11.5 for game one, which converts at fair value to -650 or so, or -800/+550 with vig for an estimate. Considering it is playoffs I will lower that a bit as the books will take on more NE money against the spread and more dog on the ML. So lets say I would have to lay -600. Then I will be generous and say -9 for the AFC Championship, even though I think a very good case to state the number could come in easily at -11 or more. At -9 the fair price is around -400, lets say -450/+380 with vig. Once again doing a little reduction I figure -400.
At -600 my 210 would win me $35. I would bet $245 at -400, which wins me $61. So I make $96 instead of $100 at these numbers, meaning -210 offers some value even with me being generous. Put simply though if both games come in at double digits, and I think there is a good probability of it, then -210 offers good value. Adding in my handicapping assessment and this bet looks even better. I am just looking for a -200 or better number and I will hit it.
Re: Pats at -210
This is not just a 16-0 team, but one with a coach, QB, and
defensive leaders who have won the Super Bowl three times...
They have also never lost a playoff game at home with
this coach and QB...Before they lost at Denver and
Indy in the AFC playoffs the last two years, they began
the playoffs with a blowout win at home each time...
I know their defense looked pretty vulnerable in some
of those recent close games, but it still found a way
to toughen up every time a game was close in the fourth
quarter...If you ask me, I think they are approximately 95
percent to win any playoff game not involving Indianapolis,
and 85 percent vs the Colts...If that's the case, they should
be roughly - 410 to win the AFC...Say what you want
about Terry Bradshaw, but he and Joe Montana are
the only QB's to win four Super Bowls so he should
know something about the subject matter...Last
Sunday he said that when a team like this that has won
it before goes 16-0, they're not going to let it
slip away from here.
This is not just a 16-0 team, but one with a coach, QB, and
defensive leaders who have won the Super Bowl three times...
They have also never lost a playoff game at home with
this coach and QB...Before they lost at Denver and
Indy in the AFC playoffs the last two years, they began
the playoffs with a blowout win at home each time...
I know their defense looked pretty vulnerable in some
of those recent close games, but it still found a way
to toughen up every time a game was close in the fourth
quarter...If you ask me, I think they are approximately 95
percent to win any playoff game not involving Indianapolis,
and 85 percent vs the Colts...If that's the case, they should
be roughly - 410 to win the AFC...Say what you want
about Terry Bradshaw, but he and Joe Montana are
the only QB's to win four Super Bowls so he should
know something about the subject matter...Last
Sunday he said that when a team like this that has won
it before goes 16-0, they're not going to let it
slip away from here.
munson15
I want winners...
Re: Pats at -210
Agree with everything you said, except that they did lose at home to Oakland in the 2001 playoffs, the refs decided otherwise.:+textinb3
Re: Pats at -210
I didn't say they were a lock to win it all...I suppose
Terry Bradshaw pretty much implied it....That Oakland
game was a lucky win, but I think there have been
six home playoff games since that one and each
has been onesided.
I didn't say they were a lock to win it all...I suppose
Terry Bradshaw pretty much implied it....That Oakland
game was a lucky win, but I think there have been
six home playoff games since that one and each
has been onesided.
munson15
I want winners...
Re: Pats at -210
I believe that they covered them all after that one, which was a push.
Cobbler
EOG Addicted
Re: Pats at -210
That's fine. I've seen them lose against the spread 6 of their last 8 games. I've seem them squeak out wins against the Giants, the Ravens, and Philly. Even the Jets gave them a struggle.
This not the same team as it was three months ago. The scores since that Washington game point that out. To bet the Patroits thinking games in September and October show its talent more than games in November and December is likely a good way to lose some money.
That's fine. I've seen them lose against the spread 6 of their last 8 games. I've seem them squeak out wins against the Giants, the Ravens, and Philly. Even the Jets gave them a struggle.
This not the same team as it was three months ago. The scores since that Washington game point that out. To bet the Patroits thinking games in September and October show its talent more than games in November and December is likely a good way to lose some money.
Re: Pats at -210
They have had difficulty covering pointspreads lately, but not
money lines...The original question was about how they will fare vs
the money lines in the playoffs, not the pointspreads.
They have had difficulty covering pointspreads lately, but not
money lines...The original question was about how they will fare vs
the money lines in the playoffs, not the pointspreads.
munson15
I want winners...
Re: Pats at -210
Agreed, and I believe the reason they struggled ATS the 2nd half was playing in bad conditions, rain, wind, sometimes both. That high-flying attack reminds me of the Air Coryell teams in SD, NE would benefit playing in some warm weather, which they would see in SB XLII. Until then, they have to hope conditions are relatively mild in Foxboro. Their defense will be more important in inclement weather because the offense will be unable to score into the 30's.
Cobbler
EOG Addicted
Re: Pats at -210
:+clueless
The original 'question' was Wild Bill wanting to be talked out of making a -210 bet, then we moved on. I am glad we figured out the Patriots aren't very good in bad weather. Good thing they won't have to worry about that in New England.
:+clueless
The original 'question' was Wild Bill wanting to be talked out of making a -210 bet, then we moved on. I am glad we figured out the Patriots aren't very good in bad weather. Good thing they won't have to worry about that in New England.
Woody
EOG Veteran
Re: Pats at -210
...which gives those holding tickets for the Pats to go 19-0 for -190, available with 1 or 2 regular season games left, having egg all over their faces.
...which gives those holding tickets for the Pats to go 19-0 for -190, available with 1 or 2 regular season games left, having egg all over their faces.
Re: Pats at -210
You can play NE to win now, and then take the other side on
the day of the game to offset if there is a disastrous weather
situation. That way you will likely have a strong play or you
can take a very small loss if the weather becomes too much
of an issue.
You can play NE to win now, and then take the other side on
the day of the game to offset if there is a disastrous weather
situation. That way you will likely have a strong play or you
can take a very small loss if the weather becomes too much
of an issue.
Moldoveanu
EOG Master
Re: Pats at -210
i am just wondering if this can be another situation like baseball
where colorado killed everyone except boston!
here is same situation we have with teams like
washington wining 4 straight games!
Giants 7-1 on the Road! where they play all of thier games on the road!!
someone on the upset list will probably sneak in! cuz not all the favorites win
i am just wondering if this can be another situation like baseball
where colorado killed everyone except boston!
here is same situation we have with teams like
washington wining 4 straight games!
Giants 7-1 on the Road! where they play all of thier games on the road!!
someone on the upset list will probably sneak in! cuz not all the favorites win
Re: Pats at -210
i don't think the original question was whether or not the patriots will win it all, but whether or not the -210 was a good bet.
if you go based on wildbill's assumption that the pats will be -11.5 and then -9, it's a decent enough wager.
but i on the other hand don't think new england will be that much of a favorite in either game. maybe 9 and 7, depending on the weather and opponent. when new england played AT indy the spread was artificially high with colts' injuries and pats running up the score on everyone.
the last 6 wins have been by an average of 10 against an average opponent worse than what they will face from here on out (baltimore, miami, jets, etc).
i don't think the original question was whether or not the patriots will win it all, but whether or not the -210 was a good bet.
if you go based on wildbill's assumption that the pats will be -11.5 and then -9, it's a decent enough wager.
but i on the other hand don't think new england will be that much of a favorite in either game. maybe 9 and 7, depending on the weather and opponent. when new england played AT indy the spread was artificially high with colts' injuries and pats running up the score on everyone.
the last 6 wins have been by an average of 10 against an average opponent worse than what they will face from here on out (baltimore, miami, jets, etc).