Re: Anyone place this type of sports wager?
Santo,
I have no idea how much a ton of work is. So I don't know how much the books know about the worth of 1.5 runs. I can only assume you have some detailed knowledge about the effort they have made.
I do know how much effort I have put into the issue, but no one else does. So comparing our efforts is actually impossible.
The assumption that the books know more than their customers is common. In fact, the normal arguement I hear is they know so much more about what is going to happen than I, that I am foolish for wagering with them.
They may very well have a better sense of the potential outcome of a game. But they move the lines based on the customers perceptions and actions. They are not interested in gambling, but rather balancing the books. So their knowledge and feelings aren't that relevent.
If in fact, they know exactly the relationship between the money line and run line and acted accordingly, one would expect these lines to move together. I've not studied the movement, but took a look at one example from today.
In this case it was the Cincinnati-StLouis game. I know what lines were available about 9AM, then about 10:30 when Lawrence posted them on this board for the WSEX contest, and finally right before game time. Following are those lines;
Early Cincinnati +128 StLouis-1.5 +165
Morning Cincinnati +131 StLouis-1.5 +155
Late Cincinnati +127 StLouis-1.5 +150
Here we see small movement back and forth in the money line. But the run line moved much more and only in one direction. This type of independent movement says to me that the books don't have a rule about the relationship of the money line and run line. This type of movement also says to me that opportunities do exist.
Just my opinion.
Santo,
I have no idea how much a ton of work is. So I don't know how much the books know about the worth of 1.5 runs. I can only assume you have some detailed knowledge about the effort they have made.
I do know how much effort I have put into the issue, but no one else does. So comparing our efforts is actually impossible.
The assumption that the books know more than their customers is common. In fact, the normal arguement I hear is they know so much more about what is going to happen than I, that I am foolish for wagering with them.
They may very well have a better sense of the potential outcome of a game. But they move the lines based on the customers perceptions and actions. They are not interested in gambling, but rather balancing the books. So their knowledge and feelings aren't that relevent.
If in fact, they know exactly the relationship between the money line and run line and acted accordingly, one would expect these lines to move together. I've not studied the movement, but took a look at one example from today.
In this case it was the Cincinnati-StLouis game. I know what lines were available about 9AM, then about 10:30 when Lawrence posted them on this board for the WSEX contest, and finally right before game time. Following are those lines;
Early Cincinnati +128 StLouis-1.5 +165
Morning Cincinnati +131 StLouis-1.5 +155
Late Cincinnati +127 StLouis-1.5 +150
Here we see small movement back and forth in the money line. But the run line moved much more and only in one direction. This type of independent movement says to me that the books don't have a rule about the relationship of the money line and run line. This type of movement also says to me that opportunities do exist.
Just my opinion.
arty
