Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
I used to post a lot of plays at Covers when I was there. But a lot is realtive I guess. I posted for about 6-7 months I guess, but they way I play that is a lot of bets. Had a pretty decent record, although I never kept track to the exact penny. But as usual people always wanted to know how my long term verifiable record was, and yada yada yada.
So I basiaclly stopped doing it.
BUT and this is a big but, I did have a so so reputation at that time from most of the guys there and if I did post a pretty strong opinion on a side people would bet it. Now the BUT part. Had I been fully into the whole scalping and buy back thing like I got into. It would have been really hard not to give out some baseball games I liked looking to get some action to help my buy back number. But at that time I didn't really post Baseball picks, and if I was looking for a buy back I usually mentioned it after, and even told guys to bet my side to move the line. I even did that at te RX a few times.
Now I like to think I am a pretty ethical guy, so I always gave out the side I actually "liked" better rather than simply giving out a side I thought would take some action anyways. Maybe that is rationalizing, maybe it isn't. But as mentioned I wasn't aspove telling people I thought the line would move,and wuld be buying back if it moved enough.
But I often wonder if some of these touts or "handicappers" that DO have a loyal following and DO have the clientele to actually move a line, if they don't do it themselves? Or make the mre unethical move of giving out the opposite side to get better odds on the sside they really like. Granted a lot of the scamdicappers probably do not bet, but some I am sure do. So will them getting a 10-15 ceetns edge on the games they actually like boost their returns enough to make their marginal success probability a money maker?
Even the Shrink, not saying he would. But those ODU games/lines last years did in fact move enough to get scalps on the ML, as well as some OK middle shots. I didn't track either, but when it got into the ODU bandwagon I used to bet them on the ML opener (when they had one)and wait for the move. I didn't get caught once with a bad number. So even if he wasn't doing it, I did
. But even if he did, would it be a bad thing? Obviously he is a fan, obviously the whole ODU craze got away from people, especially with them making the tourny. But if he thought they would win at -7, and people bet them to -11 or more what would be wrong with a buy back? Still rooting for the win, just by not so much. I am sure that is borderline college athlete on the take, but in terms of true ethics, is it really THAT bad?
This topic has many factors. How posting actually helps you or the people reading the picks. And what kind of backlash you will get from posting winning or losing picks.
Basically it is my opinion that posting picks really doesn't help anyone. If the guy wins he gets an ego stroke, if he loses he gets consoled. I find it much better to piost up a scalp or two I see (as long as I don't have an account at one of the books) or post up some pertinent info or some advice if I have an idea of what I am talking about. If a guy does have some success, it usually takes the public to catch on and by then many of the guys have abd turn so people jump on too late. So still not helping.
I also NEVER posted up picks BEFORE I made a bet. Not that a line would change on my pick, I still didn't want to take the chance that enough people followed me to make the line stay put more than it should, by simply having one hundred $50 bets go in on that side. But if I bet a game at -4, and by the time I posted it it was -5/5.5 then what? I post "I got this at -4, but it is now -5.5" But I like it still, and the team wins by 5. I win, they lose, but for "record keeping purposes" I am a winner.
So a lot of angles to take with this loaded question. If a guy did have the "juice" to move a number, it seems to me that it would be hard not to post up a side and look to get action the other way. Obviously some guys did this and still do it. But I am not sure if I could pull a bait and switch when it came to posting side.
