Sagarin ratings

John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Can anyone explain the difference between Jeff Sagarin's Predictor methodology and his Golden Mean methodology?

Or does Sagarin claim proprietary rights when explaining his model?

Interesting to note: Sagarin's relatively-new addition to his USA Today-published rankings is his RECENT category which produced the same four teams as the College Football Playoff Selection Committee.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: Sagarin ratings

A couple of quick thoughts about the CFP semifinal round:

A bet on Georgia and a bet on Alabama feel similar.

Not only do you get a Southeastern Conference rep but you also get the superior defensive squad in the games.

While Clemson (Kelly Bryant) and Oklahoma (Baker Mayfield) feature a more dangerous threat at quarterback, the two SEC teams statistically are more complete.

The betting markets also point to the SEC squads despite their lower rankings (Georgia #3 and Alabama #4).

Additionally, in the four games lost by the top four teams, Georgia stylishly avenged its only loss of the season to Auburn while Alabama lost on the road against Auburn in a bitter rivalry game.

Unfortunately for Clemson and Oklahoma, their losses to Syracuse and Iowa State respectively are head-scratchers.

Clemson blew as a 24-point choice while Oklahoma closed a 31-point favorite.
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Re: Sagarin ratings

And you also get Bama in their back yard. I think Clemson is a better team but Sabans record w/rest can’t be ignored.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: Sagarin ratings

Alabama-Clemson, Part III.

Fascinating handicap.

I'm seeing a few mock drafts that have Clemson QB Kelly Bryant listed as a Top 5 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.
 
railbird

railbird

EOG Master
Re: Sagarin ratings

Iowa st beat 2 top 4 teams. 7-5 record but 4 losses were on last possession of game, the 17-7 loss to texas biggest loss margin, they would be chalk vs texas in rematch.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: Sagarin ratings

Iowa State was a gutty team.

Credit 38-year-old head coach Matt Campbell for much of the team's turnaround.

He was named Big 12 Coach of the Year and received a six-year, $22.5 million contract extension late last month.
 
railbird

railbird

EOG Master
Re: Sagarin ratings

Gerogia played all cup cakes, then got auburn when injured. notredame result was not impressive. not a top 4 imo
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: Sagarin ratings

The injury to Auburn's Kerryon Johnson was a killer.

I failed to project Auburn's attrition rate.

Shame on me.
 
blueline

blueline

EOG Master
he has NBA, NFL and NCAAF but no MCAAMB.

here are his top 10 NCAAF

COLLEGE FOOTBALL 2023 through results of 2023 DECEMBER 2 SATURDAY - WEEK #14





1 Michigan
2 Oregon
3 Ohio State
4 Texas
5 Penn State
6 Alabama
7 Georgia
8 Oklahoma
9 Washington
10 Florida State
 
blueline

blueline

EOG Master
regarding NCAAMB

FWIW its from Reddit:

Fanosport
•2mo ago


I live in Bloomington, where Mr. Sagarin also lives. He is close friends with some mutual friends. He has no intentions to resume doing his CBB ratings
 
howid

howid

EOG Dedicated
NFL 2023 through games of 2024 January 28 Sunday - Conference Championships
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.56] [ 2.67] [ 2.64] [ 2.38]
1 Baltimore Ravens = 29.68 14 5 0 20.34( 15) 6 1 0 | 8 4 0 | 30.12 1 | 29.90 1 | 27.89 1 (afc north)
2 San Francisco 49ers = 28.30 14 5 0 20.09( 20) 4 3 0 | 8 4 0 | 28.96 2 | 28.92 2 | 26.34 5 (NFC WEST)
3 Kansas City Chiefs = 26.60 14 6 0 21.06( 5) 5 3 0 | 6 4 0 | 25.72 5 | 26.20 3 | 27.37 2 (afc west)
4 Buffalo Bills = 26.22 12 7 0 19.37( 26) 4 2 0 | 6 4 0 | 25.90 4 | 25.43 5 | 26.73 3 (afc east)
5 Dallas Cowboys = 26.19 12 6 0 18.20( 31) 2 4 0 | 3 5 0 | 26.66 3 | 24.93 6 | 26.44 4 (NFC EAST)
6 Detroit Lions = 24.74 14 6 0 20.86( 8) 3 4 0 | 6 4 0 | 24.71 6 | 25.44 4 | 23.61 7 (NFC NORTH)
7 Miami Dolphins = 23.41 11 7 0 19.24( 27) 1 5 0 | 1 6 0 | 23.20 8 | 22.82 8 | 23.75 6 (afc east)
8 Green Bay Packers = 22.55 10 9 0 20.74( 10) 4 2 0 | 5 4 0 | 23.25 7 | 23.16 7 | 21.22 10 (NFC NORTH)
9 Cincinnati Bengals = 22.05 9 8 0 21.63( 1) 3 3 0 | 5 6 0 | 21.31 15 | 21.64 12 | 22.91 8 (afc north)
10 Los Angeles Rams = 21.67 10 8 0 21.02( 6) 1 6 0 | 3 8 0 | 22.52 10 | 22.45 9 | 20.19 14 (NFC WEST)
NFL 2023 through games of 2024 January 28 Sunday - Conference Championships
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.56] [ 2.67] [ 2.64] [ 2.38]
11 New Orleans Saints = 21.61 9 8 0 18.19( 32) 0 3 0 | 1 5 0 | 22.54 9 | 21.39 14 | 20.88 11 (NFC SOUTH)
12 Cleveland Browns = 21.28 11 7 0 20.84( 9) 3 3 0 | 5 4 0 | 21.32 14 | 21.77 11 | 20.72 12 (afc north)
13 Jacksonville Jaguars = 21.16 9 8 0 20.70( 11) 1 4 0 | 3 6 0 | 21.45 12 | 21.39 15 | 20.62 13 (afc south)
14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 21.04 10 9 0 19.90( 23) 1 4 0 | 4 6 0 | 22.12 11 | 21.97 10 | 19.32 19 (NFC SOUTH)
15 Pittsburgh Steelers = 20.33 10 8 0 21.53( 2) 6 2 0 | 7 4 0 | 20.08 16 | 20.95 16 | 20.03 15 (afc north)
16 Philadelphia Eagles = 20.12 11 7 0 20.09( 19) 5 2 0 | 6 3 0 | 18.64 20 | 20.37 17 | 21.24 9 (NFC EAST)
17 Houston Texans = 20.10 11 8 0 19.18( 28) 1 2 0 | 6 4 0 | 21.32 13 | 21.60 13 | 17.76 24 (afc south)
18 Minnesota Vikings = 19.69 7 10 0 20.96( 7) 2 5 0 | 3 7 0 | 20.04 17 | 19.75 18 | 19.46 18 (NFC NORTH)
19 Las Vegas Raiders = 19.44 8 9 0 20.07( 21) 2 4 0 | 2 5 0 | 19.66 18 | 19.35 20 | 19.47 17 (afc west)
20 Seattle Seahawks = 18.88 9 8 0 20.42( 13) 1 7 0 | 3 8 0 | 18.45 22 | 19.36 19 | 19.05 21 (NFC WEST)
NFL 2023 through games of 2024 January 28 Sunday - Conference Championships
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.56] [ 2.67] [ 2.64] [ 2.38]
21 Los Angeles Chargers = 18.51 5 12 0 21.36( 3) 0 8 0 | 0 8 0 | 18.32 23 | 17.24 24 | 19.95 16 (afc west)
22 Chicago Bears = 18.40 7 10 0 19.74( 24) 1 4 0 | 1 7 0 | 18.64 19 | 18.34 22 | 18.54 23 (NFC NORTH)
23 Denver Broncos = 18.05 8 9 0 20.32( 16) 3 3 0 | 4 3 0 | 16.88 25 | 18.09 23 | 19.27 20 (afc west)
24 Indianapolis Colts = 17.82 9 8 0 19.09( 29) 1 2 0 | 3 6 0 | 18.62 21 | 19.14 21 | 16.01 27 (afc south)
25 Tennessee Titans = 16.37 6 11 0 20.15( 18) 2 1 0 | 3 6 0 | 17.04 24 | 16.74 25 | 15.94 28 (afc south)
26 New York Jets = 16.36 7 10 0 19.74( 25) 1 5 0 | 2 6 0 | 14.51 27 | 15.60 27 | 18.66 22 (afc east)
27 Atlanta Falcons = 15.38 7 10 0 18.23( 30) 1 1 0 | 3 4 0 | 15.65 26 | 15.78 26 | 15.48 29 (NFC SOUTH)
28 New York Giants = 14.38 6 11 0 20.30( 17) 1 6 0 | 2 8 0 | 12.70 30 | 13.57 29 | 16.71 26 (NFC EAST)
29 New England Patriots = 14.29 4 13 0 20.40( 14) 1 5 0 | 2 7 0 | 13.01 29 | 12.19 30 | 16.98 25 (afc east)
30 Arizona Cardinals = 13.63 4 13 0 21.21( 4) 1 6 0 | 3 7 0 | 14.48 28 | 14.21 28 | 12.84 31 (NFC WEST)
NFL 2023 through games of 2024 January 28 Sunday - Conference Championships
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.56] [ 2.67] [ 2.64] [ 2.38]
31 Washington Redskins = 11.00 4 13 0 19.95( 22) 0 6 0 | 0 8 0 | 10.36 32 | 10.22 31 | 13.19 30 (NFC EAST)
32 Carolina Panthers = 10.73 2 15 0 20.48( 12) 0 4 0 | 0 9 0 | 11.80 31 | 10.09 32 | 11.38 32 (NFC SOUTH)
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