Openers versus Closers?

[Ironlock]

I think most people would agree that closing lines kick the shit out of opening lines in general. I wonder if anyone has ever studied them specifically and in detail, and can tell us just HOW MUCH BETTER the closing line is to the opener?

Football to a lesser extent.

Baseball to a greater extent.

I'll take the closer virtually every time. Depending upon the timing of the moves.

 

[Bucky]

I agree with what you said about the timing of the moves. Take the Cubs game today - Slipped, slipped, gradually slipped and then about a 10 cent move on the Marlins real late.

So, it closed right about where it opened. As the Cubs are a public team this appears to have been a public move and then when value appeared at a few places on the Marlins it got whacked hard by wise guys. Hey, I'm guessing here - I don't move for anybody.

So, with our studies we've got nothing in our stats for an opening/closing line move.

BTW, where is the Mendoza line for getting off a side - ? 10cent move against you??

IronLock - You are like Butch Cassidy! Just like the Sundance Kid said, "You keep on thinking - that's what you are good at"!

 

[Glaken]

Two weeks ago you could've gotten USC -25.5, today the number is 33 .... this could very well be a cover by Hawaii at 33 but not at 25.5.

Perfect example of sharps and syndicate moves on the openning number.

 

[THE SHRINK]

Many of you probably know this but the BEST way to measure how STRONG a bookmaker's OPENING LINE is would be to compare how close it is to the CLOSING LINE...

 

[wantitall4moi]

I am currently doing it for the NFL. But is is extremeyl difficult and very time consuming. Even if I do complete it it will still be a very realtive study, since you can argues whata true line is on about half the games played. So all myy numbers/results will be are the results at the specific place I use for the data.


I actually have the past couple years in bases at Pinnacle on discs, I have to figure out a way to get the data processed, as to openers, closers, buy backs et al. Of course Pinnicle is abad example to use since they are habitually "off" the gerneral consensus, but my original thought behind it was to show that Pinny was not as "sharp" as people gave them crdeit for, so I was going to compare their numbers with everyone elses. Again a subjective study.

All things like this can do is give you an overview, and in some cases it might hinder more than hurt, especially if you start ovethinking everything based on data that is not as useful as one might think.

 

[The General]

Most of my wagers are moments before Gametime. I am a contrarian and like to look more into the closer than opener. I am not really good at predicting the moves.

 

[ZZ CREAM]

In the old days, a wiseguy book was only as good as their opening numbers! Nowadays, very few books have any pride or confidence in their opening numbers. Most are just hoping they do not fall and do not care how wide open their arses are!

 

[Bucky]

It get's really hard to do the research. All 10 cent moves are not created equal. What caused the move - injury - wise guys- public - false move trick???

The data can get corrupted - an opening line of 20 cents by CRIS is kind of a worthless opening line to use, etc., for the research. Strikes me as meticulous work getting good data.

 

[rainbow]

I think most people would agree that closing lines kick the shit out of opening lines in general. I wonder if anyone has ever studied them specifically and in detail, and can tell us just HOW MUCH BETTER the closing line is to the opener?

Football to a lesser extent.

Baseball to a greater extent.

I'll take the closer virtually every time. Depending upon the timing of the moves.

I dont know about Baseball, alot of dry moving on the screen looking for buy backs, closing line is strong in every other sports, but I have alot of doubts in Baseball.

 

[Ironlock]

Bucky-
Thanks buddy. For those of you that don't know, bucky is a good friend of mine and is easily one of the sharpest guys I know, he wins...PERIOD:+signs9-1


Rainbow-
Arey you saying you don't think closing numbers hold up in BAsebal, against the openers...or just less than other sports. I am under the impression, espeically the one that has been left on my BR...that the closers are far superior in this sport, especially when you leave out all the LATE NIGHT movement in the night games...which is usally chase action (in my opinion).

 

[rainbow]

Bucky-
Thanks buddy. For those of you that don't know, bucky is a good friend of mine and is easily one of the sharpest guys I know, he wins...PERIOD:+signs9-1


Rainbow-
Arey you saying you don't think closing numbers hold up in BAsebal, against the openers...or just less than other sports. I am under the impression, espeically the one that has been left on my BR...that the closers are far superior in this sport, especially when you leave out all the LATE NIGHT movement in the night games...which is usally chase action (in my opinion).

I agree with you 100%, that what I was talking about every night on the 10pm eastern games.

 

[Ironlock]

I respect your opinion Rainbow, loved you're stuff at the rx.

What took me so long to believe I could differentiating the late movement from the normal stuff, is that it all has the same leader (first book/s to move), which can be confusing some times, if you're not on the inside.

Eventually, though the $ results will start talking to you. :+clueless

 

[The General]

Do you guys see any advantage to the late moves (like last 10 mins) at Pinnacle or any book for that matter? If you followed the moves late, do the results show a positive return over time?

 

[Ironlock]

Do you guys see any advantage to the late moves (like last 10 mins) at Pinnacle or any book for that matter? If you followed the moves late, do the results show a positive return over time?

I think when you get that specific, you are talking more art than science.

There is no way I could blindly give parameters/harda fast rules/guidlines on something like that, but I do admit, some of my plays are dictated by the movement you're talking about, but sometimes its shitty stuff, like bailing out of a play and eating a small loss.