JIMMY THE GREEK SAYS

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
Want to thank all the co-cappers out there for wishing me well as I conclude my COVID battle. Still not 100% but at least the sore throat is gone and all the congestion and breathing issues I suffered through are back to near normal. Symptoms are never easy when they hit that hard and wouldn't wish my worst enemy to progress through it. Now it's back to business.

(2) Alabama -17 -115 over (20) Arkansas:
So while voters may be a bit bummed who are favoring the undefeated Crimson Tide (4-0 1-0) perhaps felt they got quite the lull in the schedule last week, hit the road again this time with another top 20 conference foe ready to stand in their way. Last week in Tuscaloosa, defending Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young (25/36 385 4 TD) set the tone early by throwing for all 4 of his TD passes in the first half, as the unbeaten Crimson Tide vaporized Vanderbilt (3-2 0-1) 55-3 at Bryant Denny Stadium. Ja'Corey Brooks (6-117 2 TD) caught 2 of those TD passes of 21 and 34 yards , while Trasheon Holden (3-45 1 TD) and Jahmyr Gibbs (3-43 1 TD) hauled in the finale from 7 yards out as "Bama raced out to a 31-3 halftime lead and never took their foot off the gas pedal offensively. A tale of two halves with the contest well in hand then featured the power running game as Jase McClellan (11-78 7.1) ran it in from 12 yards out in the third quarter. Jamarion Miller (9-63 7.0 2 TD) then capped off the scoring with 4th quarter scoring runs of one and 40 yards to complete the carnage. The Tide recorded 34 first downs to Vandy's 9, and outgained the Commodores 628-129 and held the ball for nearly 33 minutes. AJ Swann (13/26 115) had little success moving Vanderbilt down the field, limited the Commodores to just 14 yards rushing, and a lone 40 yard field goal by Joseph Bulovas midway through the first quarter. Alabama sacked Swann 6 times in all, 3 by Will Anderson Jr. Meanwhile, Devon Achane (19-159 8.4 1 TD) scored on an 8 yard TD run early in the third quarter and Demani Richardson ran back a fumble recovery 82 yards to paydirt as 23rd ranked Texas A&M (3-1 1-0) held off 10th rated Arkansas (3-1 1-1) 23-21 at AT&T Stadium last week. The Aggies overcame a quick 14-0 deficit early as KJ Jefferson (12/19 171 2 TD) threw a pair of first quarter TD passes to Ketron Jackson Jr (1-32 1 TD) and a 56 yard scoring pass to Warren Thompson (2-57 1 TD). Max Johnson (11/21 151 1 TD) found Evan Stewart (3-36 1 TD) on a 10 yard TD pass to get A&M on the board, followed by Jefferson's fumble inside the 20 that was recovered by Richardson 82 yards to paydirt, followed by a missed 2 point conversion that cut A&M's deficit to 1 at halftime. After Achane's game clinching TD run, Randy Bond's 31 yard field goal proved to be the game winner. Jefferson (18-105 5.8 1 TD) made things close late with a 10 yard scoring run that cut Arkansas's deficit to 2 points with 10:00 remaining, but the Razorbacks could not inch any closer nor solidify the lead late. The Aggies were outgained 415-343 and allowed 24 Arkansas first downs, but made the big plays defensively down the stretch in the 4th quarter. Jefferson also added a fumble late in the 4th with the Razorbacks driving that killed any late quarter rallies.

Young (83/121 1029 13 TD 2 INT) other than grinding it out earlier this season in a one point win over Texas, appears on his way to smooth sail another Heisman Trophy win barring injury or disaster. The junior continues to dominate under center as the class of the SEC as Alabama looks to take the national stage hoping to return to the National Championship this season. Young has quite a few weapons in his air arsenal led by Holden (15-214 4 TD,). Gibbs (17-187 3 TD), Brooks (10-179 2 TD) and Jermaine Burton (12-155 2 TD). Alabama's offense ranks 6th in the nation overall, including 48.5 ppg, 513 total yards and 283 passing yards which ranks in the top 30. Their rushing game is 10th overall led by McClellan (29-245 8.4 2 TD) and Gibbs, who is dangerous in the backfield and as one of Young's targets in the air raid (25-172 6.9). Arkansas does defend the run well limiting opponents to 99 rushing yards overall per contest but is near the bottom in the conference and the lower half in the nation allowing 303 passing yards overall. Bumper Pool does lead Arkansas in tackles with 37 while Drew Sanders is second on the team with 31 and leads the Razorbacks with 6 sacks. So the speed off the edges could test Young, however if Bryce does not make many mistakes Arkansas is not only weak in the secondary but have only recorded 2 picks all season.

Jefferson (67/97 941 8 TD 1 INT) is also off to a great start thus far under center. However if you want to compare abilities in the passing game, credit Young with more target options than Jefferson. Matt Landers (15-230) leads the Razorbacks in receiving yards,, however has not yet found the end zone as of yet. Jadon Haselwood (18-214 2 TD) leads a trio of receivers that each have 2 TD receptions. Jefferson is also nimble with his feet (64-274 4.3 4 TD) leading Arkansas in rushing TD, and Raheim Sanders (83-508 6.1 3 TD) leads the team in rushing. However Arkansas hasn't faced a defense like Alabama's all season, who through 4 games has yielded only 29 points, yielding barely 7 points per contest. The Razorbacks are a top 10 rushing team averaging about 244 yards on the ground per contest, and 236 yards in the air, and score about 34 points per game. However they are also allowing 26 points in the process and don't match the depth Alabama ha on either side of the ball much less the same talent. Jalen Moody and Demarco Hellams each lead the team with 25 tackles in a balanced attack while Will Anderson Jr. leads the Tide with 5 sacks. The difference is the depth for Bama and the ability to score in bunches while dominating in first downs and time of possession even though the Crimson Tide don't need much to gain yards in bunches and to score at will making opposing defenses look a lot more vulnerable throughout the contest.

Alabama is allowing less than 2 yards a carry with their rushing defense, and if Jefferson himself can't establish the option calling his own number, it will force the Razorbacks to become one dimensional. With Young's ability to pick and choose his receivers and take matters into his own hands running the ball behind a stout offensive line, they could come at Arkansas defense at will. The series throughout history has ended up lopsided several times in "Bama's favor, and with the pass defense allowing over 300 yards in three of their 4 games thus far, it will only further set the table for Alabama's extensive attack on both sides of the ball to turn this contest into a cakewalk.

I'll have a second play coming up for later tonight.
 
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jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
(1) Georgia -29.5 over Missouri:
Coincidence you ask that my best bet combo would feature the top 2 teams in the country? Hardly, since my original play was coming up as a Sunday play between SMU and UCF before it got moved and postponed a second time due to Hurricane Ian. The top ranked Bulldogs (4-0 1-0) actually showed some rust last week probably as one of those look ahead non inspired contests home to Kent State before finally putting away the Golden Flashes 39-22 at home last week. Brock Bowers (2-77 38.5 2 TD) opened up the contest with a 75 yard scamper to paydirt, while his second carry was also a score from 2 yards out later in the second quarter. Stetson Bennett (27/36 272 1 INT) ran for a one yard scoring run just before halftime, but couldn't find the end zone in the air and threw a pick. Kendall Milton (9-41 4.6 1 TD) capped off the scoring with a one yard run, and Jack Podlesny converted all 3 of his field goal attempts from within 39 yards. Still, the Bulldogs outgained the Golden Flashes 529-281 but also committed 4 turnovers despite holding the edge on first downs 29-14. A sloppy effort nonetheless but enough to get the job done. Colin Shae (14/21 174 1 TD 1 INT) unfortunately needed to bring his 'A' game to pull off the upset of epic proportions. Marquez Cooper (21-90 4.3 1 TD) scored on a one yard run late in the 4th quarter to cut the deficit to 10, but it wasn't enough as Kent could not cash in trying to recover the ensuing onside kick, The lackluster performance however, wasn't enough to dethrone Georgia from the top of the national rankings. Meanwhile, Anders Carlson of Auburn connected on a 39 yard field goal in overtime last week lifting the Tigers to a 17-14 win over the Auburn Tigers. Both teams played to a 14-14 tie at the half but could not get any scoring in the second half. An 11 yard run by Robby Ashford (15-46 3.1 1 TD) and a 3 yard score by Tank Bigsby (19-44 2.3 1 TD) propelled Auburn to a 14-0 lead after the first quarter. Ashford (14/24 127) under center didn't commit any mistakes, but at the same time struggled to move the ball all day long. Missouri countered in the second quarter by tying the game at halftime after a 9 yard run by Cod Shrader (7-28 4.0 1 TD) followed by a one yard TD run by Brady Cook (10- -1 -0.1) who didn't even finish with positive rushing yardage. Each team recorded 6 sacks but nobody could break the ice in a closely contested, defensive battle in the second half until Auburn deferred in the second half and kicked the winning field goal in the first OT.

The top ranked Bulldogs come into today's action averaging a margin of victory of nearly 35 points. Their offense, highlighted by the 8th ranked passing attack in the nation of 350 yards per game, contributes nicely to their 42 points per contest, ranking them 4th overall. Bennett (92/124 1224 5 TD 1 INT) will look to right the ship after a lackluster performance in a win last week over Kent St. The receiving core thus far has been a three headed monster led by Bowers (15-276 2 TD), Ladd McConkey (16-227 1 TD) and Kenny Mcintosh (21-227). Milton (37-208 5.6 3 TD) leads the Bulldogs on the ground and also have Dajun Edwards (26-153 5.9) as a solid secondary option who is looking for his first rushing score coming into play today. Historically known as dominating against the run, Bennett is coming into his own this season as Georgia looks to defend their championship title. Missouri's defense coming into this contest is no slouch yielding about 25 points per contest which is good enough for being ranked in the top 20 along with only allowing 300 total yards on average. However, facing the defensing National Champs will definitely be a huge test this evening. Tyron Hopper leads the Tigers with 25 tackles and has the team lead in sacks with 3 along with Realus George Jr. Hopper also has 2 of his team leading 5 picks so Bennett is going to have to limit his mistakes if they plan to have sole possession of the #1 ranking. Let's not forget that this Georgia team did beat Kent St but will have to look better against a worthy conference foe since a similar showing last week may not get the job done tonight.

Cook (69/109 805 4 TD 4 INT) has only looked mediocre throughout in the Tigers' first 4 games. The Tigers have not shown the same explosiveness as Georgia with the run or the pass, as the offense has looked middle of the road averaging 389 yards overall per contest along with 28 points on average. He's also been sacked 7 times thus far and that plays well into the Bulldogs' hands on the DL with their versatility and speed. Missouri loves to utilize the run first, and that might limit Georgia's chances on the field to slow down the tempo of the game. Dominic Lovett (21-376 2 TD) is Cook's top target facing 3rd and long situations and even in the first down offense. However with the Tigers relying heavily on the run, they utilize two tough backfield options led by Nathaniel Peat (47-225 4.8 1 TD), and Cody Schrader (40-172 4.3 3 TD). Georgia's defense is 11th in the country allowing only 260 scrimmage yards and only 8 points per game. They are 15th against the run yielding just 86 yards per contest and 21st against the pass. Through 4 games, no player has more than 17 tackles or 3 sacks in Jason Dumas Johnson, however they have already recorded 7 picks through their first 4 games. led by Malaki Starks and Christopher Smith with 2 each.

It's not often you would expect to see a team play angry after a win, but Kirby Smart will have his team looking more disciplined, with a chip on their shoulder and to hopefully right the ship after last week's sleepwalking performance despite the win. Georgia still racked up 529 yards last week looking balanced and could have won by a boatload more if it weren't for fundamental mistakes that kept Kent St in the game most of the way. Missouri's offense has done not much except shoot themselves in the foot, and to boot against formidable but winnable games within the SEC. They have turnover and scoring consistency issues, and aren't looking forward to the defending national champs who should regain their focus this evening especially when it comes to performances lonely at the top.

Best of luck to all in week 5!
YTD 7-2 .778 +4.60
 

pro analyser

EOG Dedicated
Feels like you should lose more than one unit,when you miss the spread by alot. However at the end of the day it counts the same as losing a game by a half point.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Final score: 26-22, Georgia.

The Bulldogs were an impossible favorite.

What's an impossible favorite?

A favored team that fails to score the number of points it was laying.
 
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