EPL overs rolling?

Finland -1/2 +1100 defeated Denmark 1-0 in Euro 2020 (2021).

The box score on that game is unbelievable, won in Denmark scoring on their one shot on goal as the ball goes through the goalie.
 
Mr Bollox' analysis on Euro 2020 (2021):


 
"Best bets for the UEFA Euro 2020 knockout stage

ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)

After playing 36 group games to eliminate eight teams, Euro 2020 is now at the business end of the tournament, with the knockout stage beginning Saturday.

The top half of the bracket looks loaded, with five teams that have legitimate title aspirations. Belgium's pre-tournament title odds were around +600, and they're now at +900 because of a round-of-16 match versus the reigning European champion (Portugal), then a possible quarterfinal against the best team so far in the tournament (Italy), then a likely semifinal against world champion France or Spain. That's as tough a title road as possible.

The other half of the bracket has three title contenders, plus a karma-fueled Denmark. Two of those contenders (England and Germany) meet on Tuesday, with Netherlands lurking with Denmark in the other quadrant. All that to say: the knockout stage is set for a memorable two weeks.

As always in tournament knockout games, remember that all bets are for 90 minutes plus stoppage time, unless otherwise indicated. Here are my best bets for the round of 16.

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.

Knockout stage

Denmark win vs. Wales (-120) on Saturday
Euro 2020
• Ian Darke's picks: Eyes on France, Itlay
• Surprise stars at Euro 2020
• Fixtures, dates, times and venues
• Jersey rankings: Who has the best?
• Euro 2020 home • Soccer home



Let's have a little fun with blind resumes. Team A had the best shot difference (+48) and best expected goal difference (+5.4) in the group stage. Team B had the second-best shot difference (+46) and the fourth-best expected goal difference (+3.4). You'd probably think those are two of the title favorites, and you'd be half right.



Team A is Italy, which outscored opponents 7-0 to sail into the knockout stage with nine points. Team B is mighty...Denmark? Yep, the Danes outshot each of their three opponents by double-digits, and that includes Belgium, which scored twice on six shots.


I'm not going to tell you that Denmark is as good as Italy. I am going to tell you that Denmark looked far better than Wales, which was outshot in all three games by a total of 32 shots, ahead of only Finland in the tournament.

Five years ago, Wales scraped by Northern Ireland in this round, 1-0 on an own goal. This game will likely be similarly low-scoring (under 2.5 is -200), and I have far more faith in Denmark to create good opportunities.


This game is also in Amsterdam, which has banned Welsh fans for COVID-related reasons, while allowing Danish fans who meet several requirements. Besides, do you want to bet against Denmark, the feel-good story of the tournament? I sure don't.


Italy (-1.5) vs. Austria (+140) on Saturday

The Dutch looked as good as any team in the group stage, and Czech Republic may have been the worst team to advance.


Excluding penalties, Netherlands leads the tournament with 7.6 expected goals and is second with an expected goal difference of +5.2. The Dutch created the third-best shots in the group stage (0.17 xG/shot) and conceded the fourth-worst shots (0.08 xG/shot).


Meanwhile, Czech Republic had the fewest expected goals (2.2 excluding penalties) of any team that advanced, and the Czechs had only two big scoring chances (0.3 xG or more) in three games.


The Dutch have firepower, as Memphis Depay and Gi Wijnaldum combined for 20 shots and 3.7 expected goals during group play. Czech Republic does not, assuming Patrik Schick isn't scoring from midfield again. This one falls firmly into the don't-overthink-it category.


Belgium-Portugal over 2.5 goals (+105) Portugal scored twice in each group game, thanks in part to three Cristiano Ronaldo penalties, and conceded 3.7 expected goals (plus two own goals) to Germany and France.


Belgium obviously has the offensive prowess, particularly if Kevin De Bruyne returns to the starting lineup, and Roberto Martinez's side should be able to attack with wingbacks Thorgan Hazard and Thomas Meunier, much like Germany did in hanging four goals on Portugal.


Regardless of which team scores first, this game should open up. If Belgium strikes first, Portugal has to take the initiative, which opens up space for Belgium on the counter. If the Portuguese sneak a goal first, Belgium will press fiercely for a goal as in the Denmark game, and Portugal will thrive on the break. Either way plays into the over.


Spain win vs. Croatia (-160) on Monday
Even before shellacking Slovakia 5-0 in the group finale, Spain was having a good attacking tournament (minus the all-important finishing part). Excluding penalties, Spain had 4.8 expected goals against Sweden and Poland, but only one goal to show for it.


Spain got two own goals and a missed penalty against Slovakia, and still put up three goals and 2.7 expected goals from the run of play. Spain's 7.5 expected goals in the group stage narrowly trailed only Netherlands for most through three games.


That's a long way of saying Spain is fine. Croatia may not be, after taking 30 shots and generating a total of 2.3 expected goals, sixth-fewest in the group stage and second-fewest of any team to make the knockout round.


Croatia won't have much of the ball, since Spain had 75 percent possession in the group stage, 10 points higher than any other team. Spain had 34 more shots than its first three opponents, and I expect more of the same here.
 
Bet the under for Sunday early if you plan to. Seems like everyone knows championship games at big tournaments are massively skewed towards unders. I locked in under 2 -110 and used some boosts for even better price. Don't want to lay the big juice on under 2.5, but that's probably a good bet even at the -185 to -200 out there. I put a little bit on 0-0 final at +600 as well, but chances are good is a 1-0 final.
 
The Copa America final - Brazil/Argentina - is also set at 2 goals.


Under 3.5 -476 & under 3.5 -509.

Makes sense as well, but we know England and Italy legitimately don't allow goals and play a boring style to insure that. Argentina and Brazil could go all out to score if they allow one in earlier.
 

'I wasn't prepared,' says tearful Lionel Messi, confirming Barcelona exit​

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With football club in financial abyss, Argentine superstar searches for new home​

Tales Azzoni · The Associated Press · Posted: Aug 08, 2021 6:35 AM ET | Last Updated: 3 hours ago


Soccer star Lionel Messi confirmed that he is leaving FC Barcelona at a tearful press conference on Sunday. (Joan Monfort/The Associated Press )
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Lionel Messi began crying before he even started speaking. The "most difficult" moment of his career had arrived and he wasn't ready for it.
It was time to say goodbye to Barcelona after more than two decades with the Catalan club.
"I don't know if I'll be able to speak," he said while trying to compose himself during his farewell news conference at the Camp Nou Stadium on Sunday.
"It still hasn't sunk in that I'm leaving this club, that my life will be changing completely. It will be a difficult change for me and especially for my family. But we have to accept it and move on."
Messi struggled to control his emotions and cried profusely as he stepped up to the podium.

Emotional farewell​

"This is very hard for me after so many years, after being here my entire life," he said. "I wasn't prepared."
Messi said that, unlike last year when he asked to leave, he had his mind set on staying with Barcelona and did everything possible to make it happen, including reducing his salary by 50 per cent.
He said he was surprised to hear he wouldn't be able to stay because of the club's debt and the Spanish league's financial fair-play regulations.

"In these last few days I was thinking about what I would say today, but to be honest I couldn't come up with anything. I was blocked, like I still am right now," Messi said. "I was convinced that we would remain with the club, which is our home."
Messi's family and some of his teammates were at the Camp Nou for the emotional farewell. He was applauded several times by those in the audience.

Paris Saint-Germain rumours persist​

The 34-year-old Messi avoided speaking specifically about his future, saying he had received offers from several clubs after the announcement that he would leave the Catalan club.
When asked about Paris Saint-Germain (PSG), considered the frontrunner to sign him, Messi admitted it was "a possibility."
"At this moment I don't have a deal with any club," he said.
PSG has been in talks over the weekend with Messi's team trying to finalize a deal.
Sports daily L'Equipe reported on its website Sunday that Messi was to fly to Paris later Sunday to put the finishing touches on the deal with a view to having a medical exam on Monday morning.


If Messi, left, does go to Paris Saint-Germain, a reunion with former Barcelona teammate Neymar, right, could possibly await. Not to mention PSG's stable of other stars, which also include the likes of Kylian Mbappe. (Kim Kyung-Hoon/Reuters)
An email from The Associated Press to PSG seeking to confirm the report was not immediately answered.
Messi said he hopes to return to Barcelona in some capacity one day and that he wished he could have said goodbye to fans in a match with a capacity crowd chanting his name.
He said it was sad to leave after not being able to play in front of fans for nearly a year and a half due to pandemic restrictions.

Messi said his best moment was his first-team debut in 2004, because "that's when it all started."
He said he has "no regrets," but believed he was part of a generation that should have won more Champions League titles.
Winning the Champions League again will remain one of his main goals, as well as closing the gap to former teammate Dani Alves as the most decorated player. The Brazilian defender won his 43rd title at the Tokyo Olympics on Saturday.
Messi said that he has no immediate plans to retire.
He said it will be "strange" to see Barcelona play without him, "but with time people will get used to it." He said the club still has good players and can continue to succeed.


Messi, widely regarded as one of the greatest soccer players of all time, won a record six Ballon d'Or awards, as well as six FIFA player of the year awards while with Barcelona. (REUTERS)

Club debt, league fair-play regulations blamed for loss​

Barcelona announced Thursday it could not keep its greatest player because it wasn't able to fit a new contract within the Spanish league's financial fair-play regulations.
The club's salary cap has been significantly slashed because of its huge debt. President Joan Laporta blamed the club's struggles on the coronavirus pandemic and particularly on the previous administration led by Josep Bartomeu.

"We all thought we would reach a solution without any problems, but in the end it wasn't possible," Messi said. "As the president said, the club is more important than anyone."
Messi asked to leave at the end of the 2019-20 season but had his request denied by Bartomeu, with whom he had clashed.
"I wanted to leave then, but not now," he said. "I didn't expect it, so it's sad to have to say goodbye."


Messi won 35 trophies with Barcelona. (Eric Alonso/Getty Images)

Messi leaves strong legacy​

Messi spent nearly two decades with Barcelona after arriving from Argentina as a 13-year-old to play in its youth squads. He made his first-team debut as a 17-year-old, then played 17 seasons with the main squad.
He helped the club win the Champions League four times, the Spanish league 10 times, the Copa del Rey seven times and the Spanish Super Cup eight times.
Messi leaves as Barcelona's all-time leading scorer with 672 goals. He played in 778 matches with the club, also a record.
He is also the overall top scorer in the Spanish league with 474 goals from 520 matches. He led the Spanish league in scoring in eight seasons, and was the top scorer in the Champions League six times.
He said none of the challenges he faced on the field compared to the one of saying goodbye to Barcelona.
"There were many tough moments, many losses, but in the end you always went back to training and to playing again," he said. "This is different. There is no going back. This is the end. Now a new story begins."

 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
I just set this up for the new season that starts soon:

 
I just set this up for the new season that starts soon:



Good, there's money to be made there. Looking forward to your thoughts & picks.

This present thread has morphed, as threads tend to do, into a dump for anything "football" related.
 
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