Re: TEASERS
[FONT=arial, helvetica, sans-serif]To calculate if a teaser is +EV or not, you need to determine if the amount you are capturing in the push rates you are teasing across makes up for the extra juice you are paying. You can do this by taking
P = probability of winning a single leg
N = number of teams in your teaser
O = the payout odds for the overall teaser (i.e. +300 = 3, +100 = 1, -110 = 10/11)
(P^N) x O = (1 - P^N) which you can reconfigure to P = (1 / O+1) ^ (1/N). It's kind of awkward typing in exponents and such on a computer, it's not nearly as complicated as it looks when you write it out.
For a 2 team, 6 point teaser at +100 you would do:
P = (1/odds you are being given + 1) ^ (1/number of teams)
P = (1/1+1)^(1/2) = square root of (.5) = .707 = 70.7%.
For a Wong Teaser (through 3 and 7) at -110, it's:
P = 1/ [(10/11)+1] ^ (1/2)
P = .723 = 72.3%
So what the means is your breakeven point on each [/FONT][FONT=arial, helvetica, sans-serif]leg[/FONT][FONT=arial, helvetica, sans-serif] of the teaser (with payout odds of -110) is [/FONT][FONT=arial, helvetica, sans-serif]72.3%[/FONT][FONT=arial, helvetica, sans-serif]. Assuming the NFL is an efficient market (each spread is a 50-50 proposition), that means you need to capture an extra 22.3% in the teaser to break even. Depending on what push frequencies you are using (and whether it's you're starting at 1.5, 2, 2.5 or 8.5, 8, 7.5) you're capturing about 24% with the 6 points. As you can see, they are still profitable at -110 (1.7% edge vs. 3.3% edge at +100).
In order to make money, you need to find the 6-point ranges that will cover more than 72.3% of the time (assume a 50% vs. the closing line, so the 6-point should capture 22.3%). Of course past data doesn't always guarantee future results, but unless there is some reason - such as rule changes - to expect the scoring distributions in NFL to change, you can fire in some good bets with these. [/FONT]
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