Sports handicappers are constantly making judgments about teams and players. The evaluations are based mainly on ability levels, strength of competition and performance outputs, but also include intangible factors like team chemistry, the will to compete and the ability to plan and prepare.
The shrewd analyst monitors the betting marketplace, checking his evaluations against the posted pointspreads and looking for discrepancies between his opinions and the offerings at various sports betting outlets.
It's immaterial for the college hoop handicapper to rank 22-0 Ohio State atop his power ratings when the market has a similar opinion of college basketball's only undefeated team. Instead, the wise investor looks for more relevant and less obvious spots and situations, hoping to capitalize on wagering opportunities by betting against highly-ranked squads or supporting sleeper teams.
Last week, I listed five NCAAB teams and five NCAAB players on the rise. This week, the spotlight lands on five teams and five players headed the wrong direction. Here we go:
ARKANSAS LITTLE-ROCK.....What a bizarre shooting profile for the Trojans of UALR. They shoot a higher percentage from beyond the arc (42.3%) than they shoot from inside the line (40.7%). The best basketball teams, at any level, work "inside out," establishing an interior presence before kicking the ball out for a 3-point shot. The Trojans will be only as good as they shoot from 20 feet and beyond. Not good.
ARIZONA STATE.....The Wildcats have no starter taller than 6'7". Herb Sendek's team is 1-8 in Pac-10 play and figure to be an underdog in seven of its remaining nine conference games. ASU has yet to win a conference home game and may have to wait until March to accomplish the feat.
OAKLAND.....The Golden Grizzlies are running roughshod over the weak competition in the Summit League, outscoring opponents by 18 points per game en route to an 11-0 conference record. Here's the rub: when tested for class in late December, Oakland was dismantled by 29 points at the hands of Ohio State.
OREGON STATE.....Where's the defense? OSU's opponents shoot better than 53% from 2-point range and 37% from 3-point range. The Beavers have lost three straight games and five of six, including a home loss to rival Oregon, which may have killed their spirit for the remainder of the season.
XAVIER.....No team in Division I basketball has seen its starters play more minutes than the Musketeers. Xavier is only 3-7 against the spread when playing at home and 1-3 when laying double digits. Will the heavy load of playing time eventually cost this 15-5 team?
JEREMY HAZELL.....At first glance, his scoring numbers look impressive, but a closer look reveals he should be scoring a lot more. The undisciplined Hazell rarely makes a play for his Seton Hall teammates, insisting to shoot whenever and wherever he pleases. Don't expect Hazell to improve with age because the "Mad Bomber" turns 25 in March. What you see is what you get with Jeremy Hazell.
TERRENCE JONES.....The freshman swingman from Kentucky is a selfish player who looks to shoot first and pass later. But don't take my word for it, listen to head coach John Calipari, who was caught on national television calling Jones a "selfish mother-fucker." The numbers don't lie as Jones is averaging 17.7 points per game and only 1.5 assists per contest.
CURTIS KELLY.....In Kansas State's humiliating 34-point loss to rival Kansas last Saturday, head coach Frank Martin sent a message to Kelly by benching his 6'9" forward for the entire second half. Kelly appeared disinterested in the first half when KU turned the rivalry game into a dunk contest. Kelly's work ethic and practice habits have been questioned in the past.
KALIN LUCAS.....Gotta feel for the likeable Lucas. He has gone from Big Ten Player of the Year to a serviceable player in a conference loaded with quality college guards. Lucas lost his greatest asset (speed) after rupturing his Achilles tendon last March. Part of Michigan State's struggles this season can be directly attributed to Lucas's dropoff in production.
RONNIE MOSS.....The TCU junior possesses the worst quality in a point guard: he dribbles too much. Moss is a score-first point guard who is neither a good shooter nor reliable scorer. A knucklehead both on and off the court, Moss was recently suspended indefinitely for "failure to adhere to the standards of the program."
MONDAY'S BEST BET.....Play 713 MILWAUKEE BUCKS +4 over the Los Angeles Clippers. The absence of leading scorer Eric Gordon could catch-up to the Clips tonight against a defensive-minded team like Milwaukee. Andrew Bogut should protect the rim against high-flying rookie Blake Griffin and Brandon Jennings is back in uniform for the Bucks, winners of three straight games.
COMING FRIDAY.....Super Bowl predictions from the gambling fraternity here in Las Vegas.
The shrewd analyst monitors the betting marketplace, checking his evaluations against the posted pointspreads and looking for discrepancies between his opinions and the offerings at various sports betting outlets.
It's immaterial for the college hoop handicapper to rank 22-0 Ohio State atop his power ratings when the market has a similar opinion of college basketball's only undefeated team. Instead, the wise investor looks for more relevant and less obvious spots and situations, hoping to capitalize on wagering opportunities by betting against highly-ranked squads or supporting sleeper teams.
Last week, I listed five NCAAB teams and five NCAAB players on the rise. This week, the spotlight lands on five teams and five players headed the wrong direction. Here we go:
ARKANSAS LITTLE-ROCK.....What a bizarre shooting profile for the Trojans of UALR. They shoot a higher percentage from beyond the arc (42.3%) than they shoot from inside the line (40.7%). The best basketball teams, at any level, work "inside out," establishing an interior presence before kicking the ball out for a 3-point shot. The Trojans will be only as good as they shoot from 20 feet and beyond. Not good.
ARIZONA STATE.....The Wildcats have no starter taller than 6'7". Herb Sendek's team is 1-8 in Pac-10 play and figure to be an underdog in seven of its remaining nine conference games. ASU has yet to win a conference home game and may have to wait until March to accomplish the feat.
OAKLAND.....The Golden Grizzlies are running roughshod over the weak competition in the Summit League, outscoring opponents by 18 points per game en route to an 11-0 conference record. Here's the rub: when tested for class in late December, Oakland was dismantled by 29 points at the hands of Ohio State.
OREGON STATE.....Where's the defense? OSU's opponents shoot better than 53% from 2-point range and 37% from 3-point range. The Beavers have lost three straight games and five of six, including a home loss to rival Oregon, which may have killed their spirit for the remainder of the season.
XAVIER.....No team in Division I basketball has seen its starters play more minutes than the Musketeers. Xavier is only 3-7 against the spread when playing at home and 1-3 when laying double digits. Will the heavy load of playing time eventually cost this 15-5 team?
JEREMY HAZELL.....At first glance, his scoring numbers look impressive, but a closer look reveals he should be scoring a lot more. The undisciplined Hazell rarely makes a play for his Seton Hall teammates, insisting to shoot whenever and wherever he pleases. Don't expect Hazell to improve with age because the "Mad Bomber" turns 25 in March. What you see is what you get with Jeremy Hazell.
TERRENCE JONES.....The freshman swingman from Kentucky is a selfish player who looks to shoot first and pass later. But don't take my word for it, listen to head coach John Calipari, who was caught on national television calling Jones a "selfish mother-fucker." The numbers don't lie as Jones is averaging 17.7 points per game and only 1.5 assists per contest.
CURTIS KELLY.....In Kansas State's humiliating 34-point loss to rival Kansas last Saturday, head coach Frank Martin sent a message to Kelly by benching his 6'9" forward for the entire second half. Kelly appeared disinterested in the first half when KU turned the rivalry game into a dunk contest. Kelly's work ethic and practice habits have been questioned in the past.
KALIN LUCAS.....Gotta feel for the likeable Lucas. He has gone from Big Ten Player of the Year to a serviceable player in a conference loaded with quality college guards. Lucas lost his greatest asset (speed) after rupturing his Achilles tendon last March. Part of Michigan State's struggles this season can be directly attributed to Lucas's dropoff in production.
RONNIE MOSS.....The TCU junior possesses the worst quality in a point guard: he dribbles too much. Moss is a score-first point guard who is neither a good shooter nor reliable scorer. A knucklehead both on and off the court, Moss was recently suspended indefinitely for "failure to adhere to the standards of the program."
MONDAY'S BEST BET.....Play 713 MILWAUKEE BUCKS +4 over the Los Angeles Clippers. The absence of leading scorer Eric Gordon could catch-up to the Clips tonight against a defensive-minded team like Milwaukee. Andrew Bogut should protect the rim against high-flying rookie Blake Griffin and Brandon Jennings is back in uniform for the Bucks, winners of three straight games.
COMING FRIDAY.....Super Bowl predictions from the gambling fraternity here in Las Vegas.
