Re: Introducing Prof Meyer...
I've read that any winless team after an 0-4 start is a good play ATS until they at least get off the schneid. Your data mentions how well they've done off a bye week, but I was wondering if the stat/hunch I cited is a good situation. My records show that such teams were only 6-7 vs the spread in 2009, so obviously I am curious what the numbers would show with a larger cample size. Thanks.
This is not a complicated query to perform. The SDQL text is simply:
wins=0 and losses>=4
Running it reveals a very nice 119-77-6 ATS record since 1989.
To see a complete breakdown of records of winless teams in the NFL based on how many losses they have, run this:
wins=0 and losses
When a parameter is not defined the SDQL runs all possible values of the parameter and outputs the results in a table.
Here we can see that 0-4 teams have been 45-25 ATS. Of course much more can be investigated. What about 0-4 teams that are favored? Divisional? Off a loss as a favorite? Off a loss in which they led at the half? et cetera.
This is a nice find and something that should be watched. Note that these teams are not winning straight up, they are covering inflated lines. The ATS record of 119-77-6 has been produced with straight up record of 70-132. The average line has been +6.9 ppg.
I would imagine that this is from the squares avoiding bad teams, with insightful and in-depth logic such as, "Cleveland Sucks! Who would bet on Cleveland?"
Thanks for the inquiry.
Prof M.