Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

[Timely Hero]

There are a couple of things that have stood out to me this morning, and one was pointed out by another person on this forum.... I got this thread started a little late so we're not going to be able to get everything done today, that I'd like to get done, but we'll see how this goes.

I got this thread started a little late today so it's going to be tough for me to get the best numbers and post them here, but I'm still looking into the best plays for the day.

If you see anything that stands out to you today, post it in this thread and we'll get a discussion going.

The Cubs opened up as large favorites over Peavy and the Padre's. Someone else on the forum felt this line was off, and so did many bettors, but now is where I'll hit the Cubs line.

The game opened as high as -160, and you can now find -130. That's 30 cents, and that's a lot to me. I can't pass up the value on the Cubs now, and there's a chance that some late Cub money will come in and you may be able to guarantee yourself a profit.

Let me add that I won't be scalping as much as others, but I'll do my best to point out a solid scalp and I hope even Hoffa will chime in every now and then and help people out with that. I don't bet enough to scalp for a solid profit, but I'll do my best to point out the best numbers.

 

[shdw01]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

I can't pass up the value on the Cubs now, and there's a chance that some late Cub money will come in and you may be able to guarantee yourself a profit.

are you saying you think SD might be better than +130.....?

:blink:

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

I'm not positive if the line is still out there but you can grab the Sox at +145 at SIA, and you can bet it back with Cleveland -141 at 5 dimes. That's about as small as scalp gets, but it was there before, and it may still be available.

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

are you saying you think SD might be better than +130.....?

:blink:

I'm saying that the Cubs are the play at this number. At the opening line, SD had value, but now all the value is with the Cubs.

 

[shdw01]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

I'm not positive if the line is still out there but you can grab the Sox at +145 at SIA, and you can bet it back with Cleveland -141 at 5 dimes. That's about as small as scalp gets, but it was there before, and it may still be available.

I'm not funded at many books but unless you have an opinion one way or another, I see no reason not to max out scalps (even as small as this may be)

 

[munson15]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

First off, congrats on the Blackhawks reaching the conference finals. 91023i2ndw;l As to shopping prices, I tried tracking line moves last year in bases, and did not fare well. I simply tracked 20-cent or greater moves off the morning line. It seemed to me that the people moving baseball lines were winning by getting out ahead of the pack. In the instance you cite, it seemed that the Padres would be the proper play based on what I observed last year. Someone more experienced in watching line moves may have a different take. Fading line movement works well in the ATS sports, IMO, but baseball is strictly a W/L proposition and I've not been satisfied that I can discern an edge.

 

[shdw01]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

I'm saying that the Cubs are the play at this number. At the opening line, SD had value, but now all the value is with the Cubs.

Sometimes hard for me to find "value" when I know who is playing (Jake P) but I don't think taking Cubs now will offer a scalp with SD later on today. Cubbies probably win cause they don't wanna lose another one this series but I have to pass.

 

[munson15]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

I'm not funded at many books but unless you have an opinion one way or another, I see no reason not to max out scalps (even as small as this may be)

All things being equal, I agree, but you have to take into consideration the respective strengths of each book you are scalping, the cost, if any, of moving money around, and the amount of liquidity you can pour into the market before you start.

 

[WVU]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

This thread may make or break Timely Hitting. Good luck and do try to stick with it good or bad.

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

First off, congrats on the Blackhawks reaching the conference finals. 91023i2ndw;l As to shopping prices, I tried tracking line moves last year in bases, and did not fare well. I simply tracked 20-cent or greater moves off the morning line. It seemed to me that the people moving baseball lines were winning by getting out ahead of the pack. In the instance you cite, it seemed that the Padres would be the proper play based on what I observed last year. Someone more experienced in watching line moves may have a different take. Fading line movement works well in the ATS sports, IMO, but baseball is strictly a W/L proposition and I've not been satisfied that I can discern an edge.

Thanks for the input, and I agree with you in most instances. I'll frequently bet the over night line, and I'll start doing that tonight, but in this spot I disagree. It's an injury reaction, IMO, and Harden is just as capable of shutting down a line up as Peavy. So you're asking me who's offense I want in this situation, and I'll take the injured Cubs offense over the healthy Padre's.

I won't be fading line movement, so don't think that, but I will be picking my spots when I feel someone moved a line due to an overreaction. I do this a lot more in CBB, and as you said it works more in spread sports, but this is strictly a spot play.

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

Sometimes hard for me to find "value" when I know who is playing (Jake P) but I don't think taking Cubs now will offer a scalp with SD later on today. Cubbies probably win cause they don't wanna lose another one this series but I have to pass.

Harden is every bit as capable as Peavy. His stuff is as electric, and he has a better chance holding down the SD lineup than Peavy has of holding down the Cub lineup. If you would have faded Peavy since he came into the league, I have a feeling you'd be winning.

Also WVU, we'll see. I'm not sure it'll make or break me as I would like for a lot of others to chime in. I'm still trying to learn like everyone else, and that's the purpose of this thread. It won't garner as much attention as other threads, but I hope it'll bring great results to those who chose to participate in it.

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

All things being equal, I agree, but you have to take into consideration the respective strengths of each book you are scalping, the cost, if any, of moving money around, and the amount of liquidity you can pour into the market before you start.

True, and I'll do my best to post all scalps I bet in time for others to bet them. I'll also do my best to post in-game scalps, and I hope Hoffa will do the same. I'm not a scalper by nature, but I'll take any free money you want to throw my way.

 

[shdw01]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

This thread may make or break Timely Hitting.

So it also may not make or break TH?

:+clueless

 

[shdw01]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

True, and I'll do my best to post all scalps I bet in time for others to bet them. I'll also do my best to post in-game scalps, and I hope Hoffa will do the same. I'm not a scalper by nature, but I'll take any free money you want to throw my way.

how many outs you got and what are they? This is probably the most valuable bit of information we don't have.

 

[munson15]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

Thanks for the input, and I agree with you in most instances. I'll frequently bet the over night line, and I'll start doing that tonight, but in this spot I disagree. It's an injury reaction, IMO, and Harden is just as capable of shutting down a line up as Peavy. So you're asking me who's offense I want in this situation, and I'll take the injured Cubs offense over the healthy Padre's.

I won't be fading line movement, so don't think that, but I will be picking my spots when I feel someone moved a line due to an overreaction. I do this a lot more in CBB, and as you said it works more in spread sports, but this is strictly a spot play.

As a spot play, I like it a lot and agree with you on Harden-Peavy.:cheers

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

how many outs you got and what are they? This is probably the most valuable bit of information we don't have.

I'll invesitgate every out I can for people. Even if I don't have an out, I'll post it anyway to help out others who use that out.

I am currently funded at 5 dimes, BJ, and Match. I have account at bodog, bookmaker, and WSEX but I am not funded. I will check those sites for the best number and post it for you guys, but I'll post the number I GOT On my play for record keeping purposes. I'll do my best to get you guys the best line on every game you, or I, play.

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

As a spot play, I like it a lot and agree with you on Harden-Peavy.:cheers

Let's start off 1-0.
:cheers

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

O/U

Another trend I've paid a decent amount of attention to is "names" on O/U and tonight is a great example.

Halladay is facing Burnett tonight and the O/U is 8 1/2 -115. At first glance you love the pitchers in this match up, and so do I, but any O/U under 9 with the Yankee's, and even Blue Jays offense, is a little low IMO.

1. The bullpens still need to pitch for these teams, and that can't be forgotten.
2. Burnett is going up against his old team, and some pitchers will press in that situation.
3. Burnett is a streaky pitcher who is very capable of giving up 4-5 run innings. His location can be questioned.
4. Doc has gotten hit harder than he did last year. He's giving up nearly a hit an inning, and his HR totals are up a little over last year.

I'll play the over in this game because it's a 1/2 run low IMO. These offenses are too good to have an O/U lower than 9.

 

[shdw01]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

I'll invesitgate every out I can for people. Even if I don't have an out, I'll post it anyway to help out others who use that out.

I am currently funded at 5 dimes, BJ, and Match. I have account at bodog, bookmaker, and WSEX but I am not funded. I will check those sites for the best number and post it for you guys, but I'll post the number I GOT On my play for record keeping purposes. I'll do my best to get you guys the best line on every game you, or I, play.

I like this approach....knowing which outs are available to you and what line you got adds more credibility IMO....and checking other numbers out there is a service to the rest of the community.

:thumbsup

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

Check that, after being educated on how I was basically crazy to think .2 return would be reasonable, we'll downgrade it to a return as small as .02 on every wager. I'm just trying to learn like the rest, so I will make mistakes. Some will be big, and some will be small, but I would like someone to correct me if I'm wrong so I can learn it myself.

 

[BrickShitHouse]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

Check that, after being educated on how I was basically crazy to think .2 return would be reasonable, we'll downgrade it to a return as small as .02 on every wager. I'm just trying to learn like the rest, so I will make mistakes. Some will be big, and some will be small, but I would like someone to correct me if I'm wrong so I can learn it myself.

Correcting you is a recipe for disaster. Enought of the BS though, i am ready to learn some stuff too.

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

Correcting you is a recipe for disaster. Enought of the BS though, i am ready to learn some stuff too.

Not when it comes to a topic like this. I know I'm far from educated on this topic, and I'll take all constructive criticism as that, constructive. We'll see how this thread goes, and I'll do my best to keep it around and hopefully some smarter ones will chime in.

 

[ATX]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

how many bets do you have total in MLB, baskets, football?

how many bets a day do you usually make?

what is your record in each?

 

[royalfan]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

Still waiting for the mall cop to chime in. Good luck with the thread timely.

 

[BrickShitHouse]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

Hoffa will definately school us on the scalping from what i hear. Cant wait for his arrival; getting so excited.

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

how many bets do you have total in MLB, baskets, football?

how many bets a day do you usually make?

what is your record in each?

I am a selective bettor. I don't make a lot of wagers playing a pinny lean.

Total in MLB and baskets since I joined the forums is probably around 1000, but that may be a little high. It's not a high enough sample as I know.

I'd have to go back and get my total record. My first year I hit 61% (Over about 150 plays) in CBB, but it was a fluky year as every break went my way. The next year I hit about 53% and made a small profit (over about 150 plays). The year after that I stuck around 54-55% and this year I hit the record that is posted in my sig. I'm pretty selective so you may see days where I don't like much.

In the MLB, my sample size is not large enough for me to consider myself even a short term winner.

The line in the Cub game is climbling slowly back towards it's opener. We'll see where it closes at. The O/U in the Yankee game refuses to move to nine, but the juice is now at -125 at multiple outs.

If I can beat the closing number in every game I play, I'll be very happy, but I know that probably won't happen.

I'll post the closing number, and the number I got, when the game goes off. We'll see if I'm jumping on at the right or wrong time.

This is, in a way, an experiment to see if we can all put our knowledge in this field together and become successful. I feel there are many posters on here that have a unique skill set in this community, but they struggle in other aspects. I'm looking for as much input as I can get.

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

Still waiting for the mall cop to chime in. Good luck with the thread timely.

It would be nice if Hoffa would jump in this thread, but he's not a big fan of mine.

Thanks Royal. I hope all is well with you bud.

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

I did stop posting plays in all sports because bashing can become relentless. I'm hoping people will feel comfortable enough to chime in with their views on different things in this thread with out getting bashed.

I'm looking into a couple more games right now, but as of right now those two are the only ones that stand out for all reasons.

The logic behind my plays will vary, but I'll try to focus on things such as;

Line moves
Injury reactions (I've found that people overreact to injuries and don't understand that the book takes this into account with their line)
Knowledge of the team
Team trends (Which are huge in baseball, IMO)

And I'll try and grab some guaranteed profit plays for people. Hopefully Hines will chime in with some things as well.

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

I'm waiting on the White Sox line to hit +150. Although the White Sox have not hit Sowers particularly well, they've all had less than 6 AB's versus him.

I'll say this, Clayton Richard is very capable of shutting down a MLB lineup the first time through, but he tends to struggle the second time through. Sowers and Richard are very comparable as pitchers, if you're comparing their talent level, and I like the White Sox bullpen better, and the lineups are a toss up.

The White Sox have struggled as of late, and they have a lot of players that are in a funk. If the line climbs to +150, I can't ignore the movement. Sowers laying that much to any team in baseball is laughable. The only problem I have with pulling the trigger on this bet is that the Sox are cold, and I hate betting against that trend. If the line climbs to +150, it's for sure a play, if not we'll see how I feel around 5:30.

The White Sox game is a prime example of an overreaction to Buehrle not starting. People thought they had the books beat, and the books adjusted the line because Richard was on the mound and people still bet Sowers. -135 is where I have the line set, and if I can get the extra 15 cents on the White Sox, I'll take 'em.

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

St. Louis vs. Pitt.

What is going on with this game? Line opens up at -140 for the Cards and is currently sitting at -110 at some places. Can some fill me in as to why this is happening? What way do we see the number going the rest of the night? Does it go back towards the Cards?

 

[BSims]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

First off, congrats on the Blackhawks reaching the conference finals. 91023i2ndw;l As to shopping prices, I tried tracking line moves last year in bases, and did not fare well. I simply tracked 20-cent or greater moves off the morning line. It seemed to me that the people moving baseball lines were winning by getting out ahead of the pack. In the instance you cite, it seemed that the Padres would be the proper play based on what I observed last year. Someone more experienced in watching line moves may have a different take. Fading line movement works well in the ATS sports, IMO, but baseball is strictly a W/L proposition and I've not been satisfied that I can discern an edge.

I recently completed a study on the issue of what does line movement tell us, and do they provide an opportunity. The conclusions were that line movements tend to go in the right direction. In today's example the move in the Cub/Brewer game means the Brewers probability of winning is about 4% more than was assumed when the line opened.

But the movement of the line means the return is down on the Brewers so there is no value. Also going against the move does not automatically have value. Yes, you can get better return on the Cubs, but they aren't as strong a pick as you might think.

Munson was right. You can make money if you can get ahead of the move. Taking the Brewers this morning, and the Cubs this evening would be a good situation. But then, who can predict line movements?

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

I recently completed a study on the issue of what does line movement tell us, and do they provide an opportunity. The conclusions were that line movements tend to go in the right direction. In today's example the move in the Cub/Brewer game means the Brewers probability of winning is about 4% more than was assumed when the line opened.

But the movement of the line means the return is down on the Brewers so there is no value. Also going against the move does not automatically have value. Yes, you can get better return on the Cubs, but they aren't as strong a pick as you might think.

Munson was right. You can make money if you can get ahead of the move. Taking the Brewers this morning, and the Cubs this evening would be a good situation. But then, who can predict line movements?

I have a feeling that if you bet overnight lines, your first reaction will help you with line movement. Appreciate the input, and I agree with what you said.

The Cubs are playing the Padre's, FYI, but regardless I appreciate your input and understand it. I do feel that bettor's can over bet a line and move it to much, giving value to the other team. That's what I believe happened in the Cubs game today. As I said to Munson, spots need to be picked in all aspects of gambling and this is one of those spots.

Good luck tonight.

 

[Mr. Smith]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

Im pretty shocked about Houston +164 at matchbook

simple analysis

both teams are bad

Paulino is bad. jimenez is a prospect with upside still, but he has been just as bad as Paulino this year

So I dont know who is going to win, but where the hell did +164 on one of these teams come from?

Houston is my biggest bet today

 

[railbird]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

Hoffa will definately school us on the scalping from what i hear. Cant wait for his arrival; getting so excited.

Yeah school us, it takes so much talent.

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

I'll say it's nice to actually be talking gambling+sports in one thread. Hopefully this thread will garner some attention and others will chime in over time.

Rail it's easy to just post plays, or post how easy it is to do something, but it's another to show others who may be trying to learn; regardless of how easy it may seem.

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

Plays that have been finalized.

U 8 1/2 (Yanks game)
Cubs -130

Others plays':

Houston +164

I'll also be posting the end result of every game, and what the closing line was. This will help us track how dogs and favorites are doing. I'll break down the favorites as follows;

-110 to -130
-131 to -150
-151 to -170
-171 to -190
-191 to -210
-210+

I'll also be posting the dogs, and their results on a similar scale.

 

[shdw01]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

weren't you looking at the over on the Yankee game?

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

weren't you looking at the over on the Yankee game?

Meant to type over.

 

[Jimmy Hoffa]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

A few notes...

Scalp in-house at Matchbook for success.

Scalp in-game live offerings at Matchbook. In baseball, look to start out with the under on a National league game. The pitchers hitting will provide approximately 4-5 free outs out of a possible 51 to 54 outs. With any luck, around the 2nd or 3rd inning you should be in good shape. In football, take your leans early in the week on public teams such as Notre Dame, the Cowboys, Giants and Jets. Look to scalp the back after the public bets them up.

I usually start with the dogs getting points in live betting football games. If the dog shows some life you should be able to scalp out by the end of the first quarter. If the dog has fleas, look to come over the top and play the other side before it gets too expensive.

Good luck Timely.

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: Strictly Gambling Thread: Scalping, Line Shopping, and just beating the book... Help Alert Others About Soft Lines...

A few notes...

Scalp in-house at Matchbook for success.

Scalp in-game live offerings at Matchbook. In baseball, look to start out with the under on a National league game. The pitchers hitting will provide approximately 4-5 free outs out of a possible 51 to 54 outs. With any luck, around the 2nd or 3rd inning you should be in good shape. In football, take your leans early in the week on public teams such as Notre Dame, the Cowboys, Giants and Jets. Look to scalp the back after the public bets them up.

I usually start with the dogs getting points in live betting football games. If the dog shows some life you should be able to scalp out by the end of the first quarter. If the dog has fleas, look to come over the top and play the other side before it gets too expensive.

Good luck Timely.

Thanks Jimmy, and hopefully we'll see you around in this thread in the future as well. :cheers