MIAMI @ ATLANTA

N

Ned

EOG Veteran
The Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks are already locked into their playoff slots, and Miami will open the playoffs in Atlanta. So what these teams have to gain here is nothing, and it has already been announced Wade won't play here. Additionally, these teams aren't going to show the other nothing. Should be a quick played game, without a lot of free throws and clock stoppages. So what is Miami like without Wade?

WADE SIZZLING FINISH:

Wade went for 50 vs Utah 25 games ago and finished the season from that point on averaging nearly 35ppg.

It is quite evident the Heat were dependent on him before he took the offense into his own hands, but now even moreso.

ON THE SEASON WADE AVERAGES 30.2ppg

WHEN HE REACHES 30 (HIS AVG):

MIAMI IS 29-9 to the OVER
WHEN HE DOESN'T: THEY ARE 11-26

SINCE HIS SIZZLING FINISH:

MIAMI O/U RECORD WHEN WADE HITS HIS AVG+: 14-2 OVER
WHEN HE SCORED UNDER HIS AVG 29 or LESS: 1-8 OVER

WADE AND THE HEAT TOTALS BY SCORING RANGE:

WADE SCORING:

30+ 29-9 OVER
27-29 5-7 OVER
24-26 3-5-1 OVER
21-23 2-6 OVER
18-20 0-4 OVER
17 or less 1-4

You can see a direct correlation to what happens when his points go down, the amount of OVERS go down with it!!! Well tonight his contribution will be 0.

ATLANTA:

DEFENSE is now in the top 10 in fewest points allowed, and allowing under 90 a game at home.

APRIL NBA HISTORY:

TEAMS THAT WIN BETWEEN 51-60% OF THEIR GAMES MEETING LATE IN THE SEASON (APRIL): 40-14 UNDER (63% OF THOSE GAMES BEAT THE TOTAL BY 7 OR MORE POINTS)

MIAMI @ ATLANTA UNDER 1905.5

RATING: MEDIUM
 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: MIAMI @ ATLANTA

Ned, thanks for the post. I'm going to say that your a much smarter capper than I'll ever be and i do enjoy reading about your angles.

but

isn't there a chance that the reason it's correlated is because Wayde is a high percentage of the offense and when he's having a bad day the offense is having a bad day? Similar to the Lakers a few years ago when Kobe was the entire team. If you have one guy taking 70% of the shots and he can't hit water falling out of a boat in the ocean then it's going to be an under with all those empty possessions. The question comes when he is OUT of the game allowing the other players to take those shots instead of the empty possessions. The only game this year he was out the total went over by 15 points against a very good Boston defense at Boston.
 
N

Ned

EOG Veteran
Re: MIAMI @ ATLANTA

tool21 said:
Ned, thanks for the post. I'm going to say that your a much smarter capper than I'll ever be and i do enjoy reading about your angles.

but

isn't there a chance that the reason it's correlated is because Wayde is a high percentage of the offense and when he's having a bad day the offense is having a bad day? Similar to the Lakers a few years ago when Kobe was the entire team. If you have one guy taking 70% of the shots and he can't hit water falling out of a boat in the ocean then it's going to be an under with all those empty possessions. The question comes when he is OUT of the game allowing the other players to take those shots instead of the empty possessions. The only game this year he was out the total went over by 15 points against a very good Boston defense at Boston.
Click to expand...

Your going to use one game as a measuring stick? (MIA/BOS)

How'd that work out for Miami last year without Wade?

THIS YR: MIAMI 98.5ppg
LAST YR: MIAMI 91.4ppg
----------------------------
NET -7.1ppg

LAST YEAR:

WADE PLAYS HIS LAST GAME ON 3/8/08

THE HEAT ON THE ROAD WITHOUT WADE VS TOP 10 IN PTS ALLOWED FROM THAT POINT ON:

DETROIT 69
BOSTON 62
TORONTO 75
CLEVE 76
TORONTO 54
------------------
5 GAMES 67.2ppg

I'll take my chances
 
N

Ned

EOG Veteran
Re: MIAMI @ ATLANTA

Remember the Celtics line up that night also:

MOST MINUTES:

Pierce
Rondo
Davis
Perkins
Marbury

Also think of this:

How often does Wade get to the line, and stop the clock while pts are scored, at a high %age of accuracy, second, think of this:

How long does it take for Wade to get a shot, vs others?


THE GAME WENT TO OT

0 MINUTES:

Ray Allen
Kevin Garnett
Leon Powe
 
N

Ned

EOG Veteran
Re: MIAMI @ ATLANTA

MIAMI LAST YEAR 82 GAMES:

WITH WADE 94.3ppg 52 games
WITHOUT: 87.5ppg 30 games
----------------------------------
LOSS OF OFFENSE 7ppg

Isn't that interesting, this yr:

98.5 with
91.4 without
-------------
LOSS OF OFFENSE: 7ppg

So your telling me you'd rather look at 1 game this season vs Boston that went into OT, where the Celtics had 3 key players that played 0 minutes (Garnett,Powe,and Allen)

VS

A full layout of 160 games comparing the Heat offense with and without him, that has shown consistency for 2 full seasons

It says he is worth 7ppg to the Heat offense

Then look at these teams this season:

3 Games:

Highest total points achieved 174

AVG PTS achieved: 169.3

I'm not saying this game can't go OVER the total, it certainly can, what I'm saying there is a much higher likelyhood it doesn't, than it does. You have to make your own choice!
 
N

Ned

EOG Veteran
Re: MIAMI @ ATLANTA

I'm not sure why you come in here and challenge every pick I make, but be certain this will be the last time I go to the lengths I have to satisfy you, your an adult, and have to make your own decision

I have enough on this game to make War and Peace look like a pamphlet!

I could write til tipoff, I just put enough in here so it gives people that may consider this as an opportunity to make their choice.

I have shot clock usage info for Miami with Wade and without
I have it home for Atlanta vs what they do away
I have many trends such as the one in the initial thread
I have shot clock usage when Wade and Haslem are both out
I have it for the best offensive combo of 5 players on the floor
I have shooting %ages with and without
I can go on until your sick of reading, but enough is enough!

Just know one thing, when I put something up here, you don't have to question what went into it, that is a promise!

It may win or it may lose, but I can say this, I guarantee I win more than I lose, that is a given!
 
O

ouch

EOG Dedicated
Re: MIAMI @ ATLANTA

All aboard!

Looking forward to your NBA play-off systems. Always very interesting and very profitable.

Thanks.
 
T

Thugwilson

EOG Enthusiast
Re: MIAMI @ ATLANTA

Well Ned I will not question your authority. Lol. So far so good. the score at 3:42 left in the 1st quarter 13-12 ATL. I took the under at 190 1/2 to win 10 units, I wanted to put more but my book wouldn't let me because I'm on a hot streak. Lol. Please Ned, Keep posting Brotha!!!! :cheers
 
T

Thugwilson

EOG Enthusiast
Re: MIAMI @ ATLANTA

Because in the NBA when the season is almost over u don't risk injuring your stars. The Heat locked up the 5th seed and they will be facing ATL in the playoffs, so why risk him getting hurt by a cheap foul from your future playoff opponent???
 
JerseyShop101

JerseyShop101

EOG Dedicated
Re: MIAMI @ ATLANTA

Thugwilson said:
Because in the NBA when the season is almost over u don't risk injuring your stars. The Heat locked up the 5th seed and they will be facing ATL in the playoffs, so why risk him getting hurt by a cheap foul from your future playoff opponent???
Click to expand...

I took Miami moneyline, I feel like an idiot right now. :(
 
N

Ned

EOG Veteran
Re: MIAMI @ ATLANTA

Why is Wade not playing tonight?

Gotta do your homework


<!-- end image_bigthumb_highlight.comp -->MIAMI HEAT

Wade to sit vs. Hawks

<!-- start byline config --><!-- end byline config -->Dwyane Wade is expected to be inactive for Tuesday night's game against the Hawks. With the Heat locked in the fifth seed and set to open the playoffs vs. Atlanta, Miami is taking a cautious approach. <!-- %I:%M %p -->- Updated 13 minutes
 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: MIAMI @ ATLANTA

Ned, there was no militious intent by any of my posts in your thread. Just trying to clear up some things that didn't make sense to me. I don't understand why you think i'm 'attacking' you. I'm not. Just trying to figure this gambling thing out the best i can.

So far so good on the under!:cheers
 
N

Ned

EOG Veteran
Re: MIAMI @ ATLANTA

KEY:

THE HEAT ON THE ROAD WITHOUT WADE VS TOP 10 IN PTS ALLOWED FROM THAT POINT ON:

DETROIT 69
BOSTON 62
TORONTO 75
CLEVE 76
TORONTO 54

ADD a 79 to that!

Could of survived OT

onto the next one, back if I have something
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: MIAMI @ ATLANTA

Thanks, Ned. You're my E.F. Hutton, if OT hadn't been looming, that was a classic rocking-chair game.91023i2ndw;l
 
TheBigRagu

TheBigRagu

EOG Veteran
Re: MIAMI @ ATLANTA

Great Job as always Ned, thanks for the easy winner!!! Any thoughts about the Lakeshow tonight, we know how awful Utah is on the road against winning teams....91023i2ndw;l
 
N

Ned

EOG Veteran
Re: MIAMI @ ATLANTA

Great Job as always Ned, thanks for the easy winner!!! Any thoughts about the Lakeshow tonight, we know how awful Utah is on the road against winning teams....91023i2ndw;l

Got the money for the night, I like investing on things I have multiple signals on that verify, and cross verify, made my money on Utah this tr on the road, things don't fit right now the same for them, so no action for me
 
Hennessey

Hennessey

EOG Dedicated
Re: MIAMI @ ATLANTA

how'd i miss this? 2348ji23e

I love it when i check the board and see CITY @ CITY

Keep up the good work Ned. Thank you for continuing to share your thoughts.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top