Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008
Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008
Free Agency Preview - Pitchers
It's offseason preview time. Here is the first of two columns looking at the winter's free-agent class, potential trade candidates and possible non-tenders. I am projecting destinations and contracts for the top free agents, but don't expect much accuracy there, particularly with the teams. First up are the pitchers, both starters and relievers. This is one of the strongest classes ever for free agent starters and a huge step up from last year, when
Carlos Silva,
Kyle Lohse and an ailing
Jason Jennings were the best "young" starters available.
Starting Pitchers
CC Sabathia (Brewers) - One of items to draw significant notice (and scorn) in last month's 2009 preliminary fantasy rankings was my choice to drop Sabathia to 12th among starting pitchers. More than anything, it was a matter of me being concerned about his workload. If one includes the postseason, he led the majors in pitches thrown last year. He's also atop the rankings in 2008, and if the Brewers play into October, then Sabathia will probably top 250 innings for a second straight year. Sabathia is a mountain of a man, and there's certainly nothing in his performance that suggests an injury is right around the corner. Still, it's worth noting that no pitcher has thrown 240 innings three years in a row since
Randy Johnson in 1998-2002.
None of this is going to hold down the market for Sabathia this winter, of course. The Indians saw the writing on the wall and opted to trade him in advance of him receiving one of the biggest contracts in baseball history, and it's highly unlikely that his new team will be able to retain him. Entering free agency at the still tender age of 28, Sabathia seems likely to become the just the fifth different player to get a $20 million-per-year contact (assuming that Mark Teixiera doesn't get there first), joining
Alex Rodriguez,
Manny Ramirez,
Roger Clemens and
Johan Santana. He'll probably eclipse Santana at $137.5 million for the biggest contract ever given to a pitcher.
With the money that's sure to be tossed around by the Yankees, there probably won't be all that many teams truly in the mix for Sabathia. The Red Sox figure to stay in the hunt and drive the price up for the Bombers if nothing else. However, as a career .273 hitter with three homers in 146 at-bats, Sabathia may prefer to stay in the NL. There's already been a lot of talk about the Dodgers making a run at him if they can get their finances in the order. The Mets could conceivably enter the picture if they let
Pedro Martinez and
Oliver Perez leave. It'd probably be more difficult for the Cubs, Phillies, Cardinals or Astros to come up with the money. I'd be shocked if the Yanks get outbid.
Prediction: Yankees - eight years, $176 million
Ben Sheets (Brewers) - Milwaukee's other ace, Sheets ranks fourth in the NL in ERA and second in WHIP. His 151/42 K/BB ratio in 188 IP doesn't measure up to where he was a few years ago -- he finished at 264/32 in 237 IP in 2004 -- but it's still plenty good, and it looks like he will make 30 starts for the first time in four years. He'd fit best on a large-market team swimming with depth and willing to spend big on a guy who might not be throwing more than 150-180 innings per year. That sounds like Boston to me. He'd also be an upgrade in Pedro's spot for the Mets, and the Yankees and Angels would have the cash to take a chance. The Cardinals and Astros could also be in the chase.
Prediction: Red Sox - four years, $60 million
A.J. Burnett (Blue Jays) - Barring a season-ending arm injury, it's a given that Burnett will opt out of the final two years and $24 million remaining on his contract with the Jays. The 31-year-old has a 4.47 ERA that would be his worst mark over a full season. However, his stock is about as high as ever. The 16 wins don't hurt, but more important is his AL-leading total of 201 strikeouts. Also, it appears likely that he'll surpass his career high of 209 innings. Burnett's deal with the Jays called for him to earn $55 million over five years. His new contract should be worth at least that much over the first four seasons. The Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals, Mets, Dodgers and Indians are some of the teams that could be involved.
Prediction: Cardinals - five years, $70 million
Oliver Perez (Mets) - This one is going to be fascinating. At 27, Perez will be the youngest starter on the market. He's left-handed, he has an excellent strikeout rate and he's never had any arm problems of consequence. On the other hand, he still hasn't thrown 200 innings in a major league season, he's currently tied for the major league lead in walks and he's completed one game in four years. Also, I can't be the only one wondering how motivated he'll be to improve while he's making at least $12 million per year. That said, if the Mets make it to October and Perez pitches well then, it'd be no surprise to see him land the second-biggest contract for an SP this winter. My guess is that he won't be back with the Mets unless he performs in the postseason.
Prediction: Angels - four years, $56 million
Derek Lowe (Dodgers) - Lowe has shaken off a poor start and is set to give the Dodgers a fourth straight season of at least 200 innings and ERA under 4.00. With a 1.17 WHIP and a K/BB ratio of better than 3:1, it could be argued that he's having his best year since his near Cy Young campaign in 2002. The Dodgers, though, aren't expected to make an especially strong bid to keep him. Because of his history of pitching well for contenders and his durability, Lowe might have as many suitors as any pitcher on the market. He could bring his sinker back to the AL with the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, Angels or Rays. A Michigan native, he's often been mentioned as a potential target for the Tigers. However, it doesn't look like Detroit will have the money to bring in another $10 million-per-year pitcher.
Prediction: Blue Jays - four years, $50 million
Jon Garland (Angels) - Garland has never had much of a strikeout rate, but it still seemed like an awfully bad sign when he opened 2008 with zero, one or two K's in nine of his first 10 starts. He has 65 strikeouts in 18 starts since, which is right about the norm for him. It looks like he'll finish with an ERA between 4.20 and 4.90 for the sixth time in his seven full seasons, but he is sporting the worst WHIP of his career, mostly because the league is hitting .296 against him. It would be best for Garland's career if he finds his way to the NL this winter. Still, there figure to be plenty of AL teams in the mix, and it's possible the Angels could keep him. Garland isn't much of a fantasy pitcher, but he's thrown 200 innings in five straight seasons and he has a pair of 18-win campaigns under his belt. Demand will be high, and there might be non-contenders willing to overpay.
Prediction: Orioles - five years, $60 million
Ryan Dempster (Cubs) - Dempster's remarkable season has come at a perfect time for him to cash in, but everyone thinks the 31-year-old is going to stay with the Cubs. The team certainly has the money to keep him, and Dempster enjoys an excellent relationship with management. He's something of a risky signing -- before 2008, he had a 5.01 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP in 162 career starts -- but he should get at least $10 million per year anyway.
Prediction: Cubs - four years, $44 million
Andy Pettitte (Yankees) - Pettitte's strikeout rate has bounced back a bit this year, but because he's giving up more homers, he seems likely to finish with his highest ERA since his 4.70 mark in 1999. He's at 4.49 right now. If the Yankees can land an elite starter, then they'd probably have just one spot left for Pettitte or
Mike Mussina, and Mussina may well be their preferred choice. That could cause Pettitte to weigh retirement again. A return to Houston would make a lot of sense if that relationship can be salvaged.
Prediction: Astros - one year, $13 million
Mike Mussina (Yankees) - Mussina is essentially a new pitcher now and might have a couple of quality years left if his arm holds up. It's worth remembering that he hasn't thrown 200 innings in a season since 2003. Still, he's gone without any hint of further elbow troubles this year. That will make him worthy of a two-year deal this winter. He's currently finishing up a two-year, $23 million contract and could take something similar to remain with the Yankees.
Prediction: Yankees - two years, $24 million
Kyle Lohse (Cardinals) - Lohse won't take an 18-win season back into free agency as it looked like he might a month ago, but his ERA has actually held steady during his current six-game winless streak. He's 13-6 with a 3.76 ERA. Lohse's combination of durability and relative youth didn't help him land the four-year deal he was expecting last winter, but he has boosted his stock under Dave Duncan's tutelage. It'd probably be for the best if he stays with St. Louis. However, there likely will be more money out there for him elsewhere.
Prediction: Giants - four years, $36 million
Kenshin Kawakami (Japan) - It appeared that Kawakami would come to the U.S. last winter, but he ended up just short of the service time he needed to qualify for free agency. He could make the jump as a 33-year-old this winter. The right-handers is 7-5 with a 2.54 ERA, 94 H and a 108/24 K/BB in 106 1/3 IP for the Chunichi Dragons this season. He had his best year in 2006, finishing 17-7 with a 2.51 ERA and 194 strikeouts in 215 innings. Kawakami's fastball is average at best, but he could be a competent third or fourth starter in the U.S. anyway. A three-year deal worth $8 million-$10 million per season would be fitting.
Prediction: Indians - three years, $27 million
Randy Johnson (Diamondbacks) - The Big Unit is still striking out a batter an inning at age 44, and he's been one of the NL's best pitchers in the second half. Unless his current shoulder woes are more serious than believed, it's quite likely that he'll return next year to get to 300 wins (he's at 294 right now). He'd almost certainly stay with the Diamondbacks, probably on a one-year deal worth around $10 million.
Prediction: Diamondbacks - one year, $11 million
Koji Uehara (Japan) - Whereas Kawakami seems a safe enough choice, Uehara comes with a great deal of risk. Once one of Japan's very best starters, the 33-year-old right-hander was shifted to the pen by the Yomiuri Giants prior to 2007. He had an excellent first season as a closer, saving 32 games with a 1.74 ERA, but he has a 5.02 ERA in 57 1/3 innings this year. It's known that Uehara would prefer to start, and the guess is that he'll find some major league teams willing to give him that opportunity. Durability is an issue, but he has more upside than Kawakami. If he can stay healthy, he could be a No. 2 starter.
Prediction: Athletics - three years, $24 million
Pedro Martinez (Mets) - There was some thought that Martinez might retire at the end of his four-year, $53 million contract with the Mets, but all indications are that he wants to keep going. He'll probably have to do it under the terms of a one- or two-year deal. Martinez gave the Mets just one full season, that coming in the first year of his deal, and he hasn't been any good this year. He's currently sporting the worst strikeout rate and the highest average against and home run rate of his career. On the plus side, his velocity has been better following last year's shoulder surgery. However, with the torn calf he suffered at the end of 2006 and his hamstring problems this year, it's not just his arm that's been letting him down. It will be interesting to see if either the Yankees or Red Sox make a bid. The Mets should have the upper hand in keeping him if they want him back.
Prediction: Mets - one year, $10 million
Greg Maddux (Dodgers) - Maddux's 4.18 ERA seems solid enough, but a full 15 percent of the runs he's allowed have been unearned. It looks like he'll post the worst strikeout rate of his brilliant career for the second straight season, and he's going to fall well short of winning 13 games in a 21st straight season (he's just 7-11). The Dodgers passed him over on Sunday because they felt more comfortable starting
Clayton Kershaw against the rival Diamondbacks. Maddux has always hinted that he'll hang them up before he absolutely has to, so there's a good chance that this is the end for him. If he does keep going, it'd probably be on a one-year deal with an NL team based in California. The Dodgers will want to do better, and the Padres may no longer be a fit.
Prediction: Retirement
Braden Looper (Cardinals) - Looper may fly a bit under the radar this winter. I was very skeptical he'd make it as a starter, and year one did nothing to change that. However, he's lowered his ERA from 4.94 last season to 4.09 currently, and he's managed to avoid arm problems. He still has an abysmal strikeout rate and a rather high homer rate, making him a poor bet for the long-term. However, at least the team that signs him knows that if starting fails to work out, it can move him to the pen and will get an effective setup man out of it.
Prediction: Nationals - three years, $21 million
Paul Byrd (Red Sox) - It was surprising just how little demand there was for Byrd's services when the Indians offered him around this summer. Cleveland ended up giving him to the Red Sox for nothing except salary relief. Byrd is on his way to making 30 starts in a fourth straight season, and while he is going to finish with an ERA in the 4.50-4.90 range for a third straight year, that's not all that bad for an AL pitcher. Also, he came up big for the Indians in the postseason last year, beating both the Yankees and Red Sox. I think it's safe to say that the hGH controversy had some impact on his market value. He'll probably have to settle for a one-year deal this winter unless he has some success for Boston in October.
Prediction: Braves - one year, $8 million
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Freddy Garcia (Tigers) - A real wild card. Garcia is reportedly throwing in the mid-80s right now as he attempts to battle his way back from shoulder surgery. It looks like he'll get the opportunity to showcase himself by making three or four starts for the Tigers this month, but it's not yet a sure thing. It'd be foolish to give him a multiyear deal unless he impresses, and if Garcia is confident in his ability to bounce back, he'd probably prefer a one-year deal anyway. The Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, White Sox and Astros were among the teams that tried to sign him before he joined the Tigers this summer.
Prediction: White Sox - one year, $7 million plus incentives
Jamie Moyer (Phillies) - Moyer looks like a lock to pitch at age 46 next year. He's had a terrific second full season in Philadelphia, with Sunday's win over the Mets moving to 13-7 with a 3.64 ERA. He hasn't finished with an ERA under 4.00 since 2003 and he was at 5.01 last year, so it's hardly reasonable to expect an encore next year. The Phillies, though, figure to make a strong effort to keep him. As crazy as it would seem to be to give another two-year deal to a 46-year-old, he looks like just as good of a bet now as he did when he signed his previous contract after 2006.
Prediction: Phillies - two years, $12 million
Curt Schilling (Red Sox) - Schilling might have more to offer a contender than either Maddux or
Tom Glavine if he wants to attempt a return from shoulder surgery, but he's believed to be leaning towards retirement. The Red Sox are likely to have little interest in re-signing him, and the Diamondbacks don't figure to consider him unless Johnson surprises everyone and chooses retirement. The one interesting possibility is Tampa Bay. Schilling indicated last year that he might enjoy pitching for the Rays, and if Tampa Bay fails to make it out of the first round of the postseason this year, the team might want to add a veteran leader to its pitching staff. Still, retirement seems the most likely scenario.
Prediction: Retirement
Tom Glavine (Braves) - Glavine has talked about retirement plenty, and he really wouldn't seem to have much reason to come back next year. He's not going to want to play anywhere besides Atlanta, but the Braves are going to need an awful lot of luck to contend and it's possible they'd be better off without having to pay the soon-to-be 43-year-old left-hander another $7 million-$8 million. That said, everyone who has ever written Glavine off has been proven wrong (at least, unless someone did it this spring and I missed it). He'll make a decision this winter on whether he wants to try it again.
Prediction: Retirement
Bartolo Colon (Red Sox) - Back from shoulder and elbow injuries, Colon impressed with his velocity in six starts with the Red Sox before going down with a back injury sustained while swinging the bat in an interleague game. He's currently pitching well in the minors, and he could get a chance to make a couple of more starts for Boston this month. As a free agent, he'll likely want to go to a team that will guarantee him a rotation spot. The Red Sox probably won't do that, but there are a bunch of lesser contenders that could. The White Sox, Mets, Rays, Indians, Dodgers and Brewers are among the teams that may be interested.
Prediction: Dodgers - one year, $5 million plus incentives
Other free agents:
Randy Wolf (Astros),
Kenny Rogers (Tigers),
Livan Hernandez (Rockies),
Orlando Hernandez (Mets),
Mark Prior (Padres),
Odalis Perez (Nationals),
Jason Jennings (Rangers),
Mark Hendrickson (Marlins),
John Patterson (FA),
Jon Lieber (Cubs),
Brett Tomko (FA),
Shawn Chacon (FA),
Josh Fogg (Reds),
Sidney Ponson (Yankees),
Claudio Vargas (Mets),
Tony Armas Jr. (Mets),
Jeff Weaver (Indians),
Shawn Estes (Padres),
Esteban Loaiza (FA),
Mark Redman (Rockies),
Josh Towers (FA),
Victor Zambrano (Yankees),
Kris Benson (FA),
Matt Clement (FA),
Glendon Rusch (Rockies),
Eric Milton (Yankees),
Justin Germano (Padres),
Steve Trachsel (FA),
Mike Maroth (FA),
Russ Ortiz (FA),
Kyle Snyder (Red Sox),
Jason Johnson (Dodgers),
Runelvys Hernandez (Astros),
Matt Ginter (Indians)
Wolf would seem to be the only pitcher here with much chance of getting a multiyear deal. He's been quite a bit better for Houston than he was for San Diego, and it'd be no surprise to see GM Ed Wade re-sign him for two years.
Options
Mike Hampton (Braves) - $20 million club option, $6 million buyout
Carl Pavano (Yankees) - $13 million club option, $1.95 million buyout
John Smoltz (Braves) - $12 million club option
Mark Mulder (Cardinals) - $11 million club option, $1.5 million buyout
John Lackey (Angels) - $9 million club option, $500,000 buyout
Brad Penny (Dodgers) - $9.25 million club option, $2 million buyout
Rich Harden (Cubs) - $7 million club option
Tim Wakefield (Red Sox) - $4 million club option
Rodrigo Lopez (Braves) - Club option
Hampton and Pavano are sure to have their options declined, but they're now in line to receive some guaranteed money as part of incentive-laden one-year deals next season. ? Mulder's option is the other lock to be declined, while the ones for Lackey and Harden are sure to be exercised, setting them up to become free agents next winter. ? The Braves figure to turn down Smoltz's option and then re-sign him at a lesser salary if he wants to attempt a comeback from shoulder surgery.
Penny's option has become a real question mark. It's just a $7.25 million decision for the Dodgers with the buyout factored in, and given that he's not supposed to need offseason surgery, it seems like picking it up would be an easy call. However, the Dodgers may decide that's money they'd rather use to re-sign Manny Ramirez or make a bid for Sabathia. I'm still guessing it will be exercised. Even if they don't want to keep him, the Dodgers should be able to trade him for a prospect. ? The Red Sox figure to retain Wakefield at $4 million if the knuckleballer decides to keep pitching. The only reason he might not is if his shoulder problems are worse than anyone knows. ? Lopez was signed to a minor league deal by the Braves last month and is finishing up his rehab from Tommy John surgery. Since the value of the option is unknown, it's unclear what the chances are of it being picked up. The Braves, though, could view him as a rather inexpensive fifth starter for 2009.
Trade candidates:
Justin Duchscherer (Athletics),
David Purcey (Blue Jays),
Chuck James (Braves), David Bush (Brewers),
Rich Hill (Cubs),
Sean Marshall (Cubs),
Jason Marquis (Cubs),
Micah Owings (Diamondbacks),
Eric Stults (Dodgers),
Matt Cain (Giants),
Jonathan Sanchez (Giants),
Miguel Batista (Mariners),
Erik Bedard (Mariners),
Jarrod Washburn (Mariners - limited NTC),
Scott Olsen (Marlins), Mike O'Connor (Nationals),
Tim Redding (Nationals),
Daniel Cabrera (Orioles),
Adam Eaton (Phillies),
Zach Duke (Pirates),
Ian Snell (Pirates),
Kevin Millwood (Rangers - limited NTC),
Vicente Padilla (Rangers),
Jason Hammel (Rays),
Edwin Jackson (Rays),
Jeff Niemann (Rays),
Devern Hansack (Red Sox),
Bronson Arroyo (Reds),
Homer Bailey (Reds),
Aaron Harang (Reds),
Brian Bannister (Royals),
Zack Greinke (Royals),
Nate Robertson (Tigers),
Philip Humber (Twins),
Charlie Haeger (White Sox),
Phil Hughes (Yankees),
Kei Igawa (Yankees),
Ian Kennedy (Yankees)
The belief is that Owings has already been traded and will officially be named as part of the Adam Dunn deal with the Reds after the season. ? The Giants could part with Cain or Sanchez in return for a big bat. Prince Fielder, Robinson Cano and Dan Uggla are a few of the possibilities that would make sense. Adrian Beltre to San Francisco has also been a common rumor, but the Giants don't have much reason to part with Sanchez for a guy who will be a free agent in a year. ? The Mariners would be selling low on Bedard if they opted to make a move, but they might anyway. I imagine the Red Sox and Yankees would be very interested if he became available. The Orioles were believed to be completely unwilling to trade him to an AL East team before sending him to Seattle.
The Reds will want to make more changes, and that could mean that Arroyo or possibly even Harang will go. Bailey should also be available, even though he was supposed to be a building block. Maybe another mutually beneficial trade with the Rangers involving either Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Taylor Teagarden could be worked out. ? If the Yankees fail to land Sabathia, they'll look for other ways to bring in a star. That could put Hughes into play.
Non-tender candidates:
Chris Capuano (Brewers), David Bush (Brewers),
Sergio Mitre (Marlins),
Jorge De La Rosa (Rockies),
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=5551"]Edgar Gonzalez[/URL] (Diamondbacks),
R.A. Dickey (Mariners), Cha Seung Baek (Padres),
Matt Belisle (Reds),
Dustin Nippert (Rangers),
Luke Hudson (Royals),
Gustavo Chacin (Blue Jays),
Jason Vargas (Mets),
Enrique Gonzalez (Padres),
David Pauley (Red Sox),
John Van Benschoten (Pirates),
Phil Dumatrait (Pirates),
Jack Cassel (Astros),
Chris Waters (Orioles),
Tim Stauffer (Padres),
Bobby Livingston (Reds),
Bryan Bullington (Indians), Dick Hayhurst (Padres),
Matt Palmer (Giants)
Capuano isn't likely to be ready for the start of 2009 after Tommy John surgery, so the Brewers probably won't want to pay him $3.5 million-$4 million. ? Bush seems a lot more likely to stick around. However, if the Brewers somehow manage to re-sign Sabathia or Sheets, then they could opt to drop him rather than commit $4 million or so to him in arbitration. ? Mitre, one of the Marlins' highest-paid players at $1.2 million, underwent Tommy John surgery in July. The team could non-tender him and re-sign him at a lesser salary. ? De La Rosa is making a case for a new deal with his performance over the last month, but given his history, it could easily come crashing down for him in the final three weeks. He's making $1.025 million this year, so if the Rockies want to keep him, it'd probably cost $2 million or so.
2009-10 free agents:
Brandon Webb (Diamondbacks)*,
Josh Beckett (Red Sox)*,
John Lackey (Angels),
Cliff Lee (Indians)*,
Erik Bedard (Mariners),
Rich Harden (Cubs),
Tim Hudson (Braves)*,
Brad Penny (Dodgers),
Kevin Millwood (Rangers)*,
Brett Myers (Phillies),
Justin Duchscherer (Athletics),
Kelvim Escobar (Angels),
Vicente Padilla (Rangers)*,
Jason Marquis (Cubs),
Todd Wellemeyer (Cardinals),
Doug Davis (Diamondbacks),
Jarrod Washburn (Mariners),
Tim Wakefield (Red Sox)*,
Jason Schmidt (Dodgers),
Chris Capuano (Brewers),
Jose Contreras (White Sox),
Joel Pineiro (Cardinals),
Brandon Backe (Astros),
Adam Eaton (Phillies)*,
Miguel Batista (Mariners),
Brian Moehler (Astros)*,
2010 options: Webb - $8.5 million ($1.5 million-$2.5 million buyout), Beckett - $12 million ($2 million buyout), Lee - $8 million ($1 million buyout), Hudson - $12 million mutual ($1 million buyout), Millwood - $12 million (guaranteed w/180 IP in 2009), Padilla - $12 million ($1.75 million buyout), Wakefield - $4 million, Eaton - $9 million mutual ($500,000 buyout), Moehler - Undisclosed mutual option
2010-11 free agents:
Brandon Webb (Diamondbacks),
Josh Beckett (Red Sox),
Roy Halladay (Blue Jays),
Cliff Lee (Indians),
Jeff Francis (Rockies)*,
Zack Greinke (Royals),
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=194"]Chris Young[/URL] (Padres)*,
Javier Vazquez (White Sox),
Aaron Harang (Reds)*,
Ted Lilly (Cubs),
Jeremy Bonderman (Tigers),
Joe Blanton (Phillies),
Hiroki Kuroda (Dodgers),
Jake Westbrook (Indians),
Kevin Millwood (Rangers),
Dontrelle Willis (Tigers),
Bronson Arroyo (Reds)*,
Jeff Suppan (Brewers)*,
Daniel Cabrera (Orioles),
Noah Lowry (Giants),
Nate Robertson (Tigers), David Bush (Brewers),
Tim Wakefield (Red Sox)*,
Tim Redding (Nationals),
Sergio Mitre (Marlins),
Jorge De La Rosa (Rockies),
Kevin Correia (Giants),
Matt Belisle (Reds)
2011 options: Francis - $7 million, Young - $8.5 million, Harang - $12.75 million ($2 million buyout), Arroyo - $11 million ($2 million buyout), Suppan - $12.75 million ($2 million buyout), Wakefield - $4 million
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Relief Pitchers
Francisco Rodriguez (Angels) - Usual big spenders like the Yankees, Red Sox and Mariners won't be seeking closers this winter, and the Mets, Cubs and Dodgers seem unlikely candidates as well. Still, Rodriguez seems guaranteed of receiving the biggest contract ever handed to a reliever.
Mariano Rivera has the highest annual salary at $15 million, and
Joe Nathan and
B.J. Ryan received the biggest packages ever at $47 million (four years for Nathan, five for Ryan). K-Rod should blow the latter figure out of the water. He's just turning 27 in January, and he'll come off a year in which he's set the major league record for saves while still undertaking a fairly modest workload (he's at 61 1/3 innings right now). He has lost some velocity on his fastball, which shows up in a much more modest strikeout rate than usual, but he's added a changeup that may make him a better bet going forward.
It sounds like K-Rod is out to get the biggest deal he possibly can. The Angels have the resources to top any offer, but they do also have
Mark Teixeira,
Vladimir Guerrero,
Jon Garland and
Garret Anderson to worry about. Time will tell what outside suitors will emerge. It was once thought that Rodriguez would be the perfect replacement for Rivera in New York, but it's hard to imagine him serving as a $15 million-per-year setup man through 2010. The Mets and Dodgers could be worried about the health of their current closers. The Dodgers, though, would have bigger needs elsewhere. The Tigers, Indians, Diamondbacks, Cardinals and Rockies probably won't have the budget. The Brewers could. The Rangers like to pretend they're not a large-market club, but just maybe the chance to steal away a huge piece from a division rival would entice them to make a top bid. One real sleeper team could be the Giants. They're happy with
Brian Wilson, but they have the cash and they might not find a big bat to spend it on.
Prediction: Angels - five years, $75 million
Brian Fuentes (Rockies) - One bad week in late June last year cost Fuentes his closer's role through the end of this April, but he's been one of the game's top relievers over the last four seasons. This year could be his best, as he currently has a 2.54 ERA and a 71/18 K/BB ratio in 56 2/3 innings. The Rockies, though, probably won't pay the high price it will cost to keep him, as they have both
Manny Corpas and
Taylor Buchholz to work at the end of games. Fuentes will be the No. 1 closing option for teams not entering the K-Rod chase, and the Brewers and Indians figure to make big-time plays for him. However, heavy hitters like the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers could offer to turn him into the game's highest-paid setup man. He's going to do quite a bit better financially than most would expect.
Prediction: Brewers - four years, $36 million
Kerry Wood (Cubs) - Wood blew his sixth save on Sunday, but with 45 hits allowed and a 72/17 K/BB ratio in 58 innings this season, he has the numbers of an elite closer. Four of the blown saves came in the first two months anyway. Wood has been on the DL just once this year, that due to blister troubles. It will be his healthiest season since 2003, setting him up to get a multiyear deal. Wood has taken less money to stay with the Cubs in each of his last two deals. He'll probably stay put again, but he should be well rewarded this time. Considering that
Eric Gagne received a one-year, $10 million contract last winter, two years and $20 million seems perfectly reasonable for Wood.
Prediction: Cubs - two years, $20 million
Trevor Hoffman (Padres) - Hoffman's ERA hasn't completely recovered from a miserable start that caused some to write him off, but he's currently 28-for-32 in save chances and he has a 45/8 K/BB ratio in 41 1/3 innings. Since April 13, his ERA stands at 3.19. The Padres aren't looking to clear salary for a run at big-name free agents, so they'll want him back for 2009, and there's been no indication that Hoffman is looking to finish his career elsewhere, though the Indians and Brewers would likely make pretty good offers if he didn't want to leave San Diego. I think he'll stay. One more season could be the difference in whether he remains ahead of Rivera for first place on the all-times saves list.
Prediction: Padres - one year, $8 million
Brandon Lyon (Diamondbacks) - Lyon was sitting pretty with a 2.43 ERA and 19 saves at the All-Star break, but he has a 10.93 mark and just seven saves since. He's not only cost himself a fair amount of money headed into free agency, but he's now more likely to be looked at as a setup man. Lyon has had three straight healthy seasons, and he was always quite reliable before his recent run. If he can bounce back in the final three weeks, then something like $21 million for three years still might be a possibility. If not, he may choose to take a one-year deal and try to rebuild his value. The Diamondbacks figure to move on, especially now that they have
Jon Rauch in the fold. The Indians and Brewers still might consider him, but my guess is that he'll end up as a setup man elsewhere.
Prediction: Phillies - two years, $11 million
Hitoki Iwase (Japan) - Iwase decided against joining fellow Japanese relievers Masa Kobayashi,
Yasuhiko Yabuta and
Kazuo Fukumori in making the jump to MLB last year, but is believed to be weighing a move again this winter. Had he come over last year, he almost surely would have been looked at as the prize of the group. Iwase has posted ERAs of 1.88, 1.30, 2.44 and 2.70 the last four years, during which time he's saved 158 games. His stuff wouldn't stand out in a major league pen, but he doesn't have excellent command and he'd likely be a useful major league reliever. That said, I wasn't impressed with how he looked in the Olympics. Teams probably won't view him as a closer.
Prediction: Mariners - three years, $12 million
Juan Cruz (Diamondbacks) - The
Oliver Perez of the bullpen guys. Cruz probably has even better stuff than K-Rod or Wood these days. The league is hitting .188 off him this year, and he's striking out 12.7 batters per nine innings. His ERA is a fine 2.91. Still, because of his control problems, the Diamondbacks have never trusted him with leads. He's walked more than a batter every other inning over the course of his career and hasn't improved there with age. He's also been on the DL each of the last two years, but whereas last year's problem was shoulder related, this year's was a strained oblique. I can see some team signing him to contend for a closer's role. Cleveland and Washington are two possibilities. The Red Sox could gamble on him as a setup man.
Prediction: Red Sox - two years, $9 million
Akinori Otsuka (FA) - Not to be forgotten about. Otsuka sat out the entire year following elbow surgery (I'm still not sure whether it was the Tommy John procedure or not), but he is rehabbing and he expects to be back next season. Otsuka had a 2.11 ERA and 32 saves in 2006 and a 2.51 ERA in 32 1/3 innings before getting hurt last year. He'll turn 37 in January, but there should be a great deal of interest in him this winter. The Rangers will likely make a bid for him after non-tendering him a year ago. The Indians and Brewers could also bring him in to contend for closing duties.
Prediction: Rangers - one year, $3 million plus incentives
Jason Isringhausen (Cardinals) - Rather than retire at age 36, Isringhausen will undergo the elbow surgery he needs to pitch next year. The Cardinals probably won't make an attempt to re-sign him. Isringhausen could instead be a candidate to close in Cleveland, Washington or Florida. An incentive-laden deal is likely.
Prediction: Nationals - one year, $3 million plus incentives
Eric Gagne (Brewers) - Well, he won't be making $10 million again. Gagne has allowed 11 homers in just 37 2/3 innings in the NL this season. He's also fanned only 30. Even when he was struggling with Boston last year, he was keeping the ball in the yard and getting strikeouts. In all, he gave up three homers and fanned 51 in 52 innings in the tougher league last year. Nothing Gagne has done this season suggests that he should be given another chance to close. The Rangers did try to bring him back last winter, but he won't be on the top of their list this time. The Nats, Marlins and Padres are teams that could look to take a chance on him.
Prediction: Padres - one year, $2 million plus incentives
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Other free agents: Bobby Howry (Cubs),
Kyle Farnsworth (Tigers),
Joe Beimel (Dodgers),
Will Ohman (Braves),
David Weathers (Reds),
Jeremy Affeldt (Reds),
Russ Springer (Cardinals),
Dennys Reyes (Twins),
Eddie Guardado (Twins),
Al Reyes (Mets),
Todd Jones (Tigers),
Brian Shouse (Brewers),
Luis Ayala (Mets),
Darren Oliver (Angels),
LaTroy Hawkins (Astros),
Mike Timlin (Red Sox),
Keith Foulke (Athletics),
Chan Ho Park (Dodgers),
Arthur Rhodes (Marlins),
Chris Schroder (Nationals),
Juan Rincon (Indians),
Joe Borowski (FA),
Scott Eyre (Phillies),
Matt Wise (Mets),
Kip Wells (Royals),
Kiko Calero (Rangers),
Tyler Walker (Giants),
Jamey Wright (Rangers),
Guillermo Mota (Brewers),
Ron Villone (Cardinals),
Oscar Villarreal (Rockies),
Rudy Seanez (Phillies),
Brendan Donnelly (Indians),
Jorge Julio (Braves),
Julian Tavarez (Braves),
Justin Miller (Marlins),
Horacio Ramirez (White Sox),
Dan Kolb (FA),
Lenny DiNardo (Athletics),
Casey Fossum (Tigers),
Vinnie Chulk (Giants),
Fernando Cabrera (FA),
Aaron Fultz (FA),
John Parrish (Blue Jays),
Francis Beltran (Tigers),
Franklyn German (White Sox),
Brandon Medders (Diamondbacks),
Jose Capellan (Rockies),
Franquelis Osoria (Pirates),
Greg Aquino (Orioles),
Royce Ring (Braves),
Bryan Corey (Padres),
Scott Elarton (Indians),
Tanyon Sturtze (Dodgers),
Rick Bauer (FA),
Jorge Sosa (Mariners),
Julio Mateo (Giants),
Chad Fox (Cubs),
Armando Benitez (FA),
Ray King (Astros),
Ricardo Rincon (Mets),
Kurt Birkins (FA),
Randy Choate (Brewers),
Elmer Dessens (Braves),
Kent Mercker (Reds),
Chad Paronto (Astros),
Jim Brower (Cubs),
Jerry Gil (Reds)
After four straight fine seasons, Howry has been a big disappointment in the final year of his three-year deal with the Cubs. He'd benefit from pitching in a larger ballpark. ? Farnsworth's chances of being looked at as a closer may have been doomed by his struggles since arriving in Detroit. Still, a small-market club could do worse. ? Veteran left-handers Beimel, Ohman, Affeldt, Dennys Reyes and Shouse are all candidates for multiyear deals. Beimel might even get something like $10 million for three years. ? Weathers could be a cheap closer for the Nationals or Marlins. The same might even go for Guardado. ? Todd Jones, Timlin and Foulke could head off into retirement.
Options
Damaso Marte (Yankees) - $6 million club option, $250,000 buyout
Tom Gordon (Phillies) - $4.5 million club option, $1 million buyout
Salomon Torres (Brewers) - $3.75 million club option, $300,000 buyout
Alan Embree (Athletics) - $3 million club option
Trever Miller (Rays) - $2 million club option, $400,000 buyout
Hideki Okajima (Red Sox) - $1.75 million club option
Doug Brocail (Astros) - Club option
Matt Herges (Rockies) - Club option
Marte will lead the class of lefty setup men if he becomes a free agent, but $6 million is too much for him, especially when the Yankees can look forward to at least one draft pick if they let him walk. ? Gordon might choose to retire after a miserable 2008 in which he's dealt with shoulder and elbow troubles. ? The Brewers are sure to exercise Torres' option, but it'd be for the best if he's put back into a setup role. ? Embree's ERA has jumped to 4.72 this year, suggesting that he'll be jettisoned by the A's. ? Okajima's option is sure to be picked up. Brocail is likely in the same category. His option is probably worth $2 million-$2.5 million.
Trade candidates:
Scot Shields (Angels),
Justin Speier (Angels),
Huston Street (Athletics),
Jason Frasor (Blue Jays),
Brandon League (Blue Jays),
Brian Tallet (Blue Jays),
Blaine Boyer (Braves),
Buddy Carlyle (Braves),
Seth McClung (Brewers),
Brad Thompson (Cardinals),
Mark Worrell (Cardinals), Michael Wuertz (Cubs),
Billy Buckner (Diamondbacks),
Jailen Peguero (Diamondbacks),
Doug Slaten (Diamondbacks),
Jack Taschner (Giants),
Rafael Betancourt (Indians),
Edward Mujica (Indians),
J.J. Putz (Mariners),
Kevin Gregg (Marlins),
Taylor Tankersley (Marlins),
Aaron Heilman (Mets),
Duaner Sanchez (Mets),
Scott Schoeneweis (Mets),
George Sherrill (Orioles),
Jamie Walker (Orioles),
Cla Meredith (Padres),
John Grabow (Pirates),
Joaquin Benoit (Rangers),
Juan Salas (Rays),
Juan Morillo (Rockies),
Ron Mahay (Royals),
Boof Bonser (Twins),
Mike MacDougal (White Sox),
Chris Britton (Yankees)
If the Angels do re-sign K-Rod, they might look to find a taker for one of their other high-priced relievers. They'd have to pay someone to accept the final two years and $10 million left on Speier's deal, but Shields could have some positive value. He's owed $10.35 million over the next two seasons. ? Street to Cleveland still makes a lot of sense, though the Indians and A's weren't able to come to an agreement on a waiver trade this month. The A's could have some interest in Ryan Garko and Josh Barfield. ? Putz seems likely to stay, especially now that Brandon Morrow is in the rotation. That won't prevent teams from asking about him, though.
The Marlins would probably have to pay Gregg at least $4 million to keep him as their closer. That'd be more a palatable salary to another team. ? The Orioles let the best possible time to move Sherrill pass them by. Since he won't bring as much this winter as he would have at the trade deadline, I think he'll stick around.
Non-tender candidates:
Takashi Saito (Dodgers),
Chad Cordero (Nationals),
Scott Proctor (Dodgers),
Jesus Colome (Nationals),
Derrick Turnbow (Brewers),
Seth McClung (Brewers),
Clay Hensley (Padres),
Jimmy Gobble (Royals),
Joel Peralta (Royals),
Brad Hennessey (Giants),
Todd Coffey (Reds),
Tyler Yates (Pirates),
Yhency Brazoban (Dodgers),
Neal Cotts (Cubs),
Tyler Johnson (Cardinals),
Ambiorix Burgos (Mets),
Denny Bautista (Pirates),
Gary Majewski (Reds),
Mike Lincoln (Reds),
Clay Condrey (Phillies),
Aquilino Lopez (Tigers),
John Bale (Royals),
Gary Glover (Tigers),
Tom Mastny (Indians),
Brian Bass (Orioles),
Lance Cormier (Orioles),
Lee Gardner (Marlins),
Robinson Tejeda (Royals),
Wilfredo Ledezma (Diamondbacks),
Randy Messenger (Mariners),
Brian Stokes (Mets),
Randy Flores (Cardinals),
Shawn Camp (Blue Jays),
Tim Byrdak (Astros),
Andrew Sisco (White Sox),
John Rheinecker (Rangers),
Jae-Kuk Ryu (Rays),
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=530"]Alberto Castillo[/URL] (Orioles),
Kirk Saarloos (Athletics),
Brandon Duckworth (Royals),
Ryan Wagner (Nationals),
Jason Davis (Pirates),
Brian Slocum (Indians),
Jason Bulger (Angels),
Mark DiFelice (Brewers),
Billy Traber (Yankees),
Kelvin Jimenez (Cardinals),
Francisco Rosario (Phillies),
T.J. Beam (Pirates),
Carmen Pignatiello (Cubs),
Jeff Gray (Athletics),
Clay Rapada (Tigers),
Chad Orvella (Rays),
Marcus McBeth (Red Sox), Mike Hinckley (Nationals),
Nelson Figueroa (Mets),
Brandon Knight (Mets),
Brian Falkenborg (Padres),
Macay McBride (Tigers),
Jake Woods (Mariners),
Billy Sadler (Giants),
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4048"]Ryan Braun[/URL] (Royals),
Bill White (Rangers),
Charlie Manning (Nationals),
Julio DePaula (Twins),
Shane Loux (Angels),
Alberto Arias (Astros),
Josh Newman (Royals),
Marino Salas (Pirates),
Les Walrond (Phillies),
Jared Wells (Mariners),
Matt DeSalvo (Braves), Vladimir Nunez (Braves)
The only way Saito gets non-tendered is if he has a major setback with his elbow this month and requires surgery. Let's not rule it out, though. ? The Nats have already made clear their intention to non-tender Cordero, and the way they did it made it less likely that they'll be able to re-sign him to an incentive-laden deal as a free agent. ? Turnbow made $3.2 million this season, so he's guaranteed of being cut loose by the Brewers. ? I don't see Hensley as a likely candidate, but he will be arbitration eligible and he has struggled to bounce back from labrum surgery. Fortunately, he shouldn't cost much more than $750,000 or so. ? Brazoban, Tyler Johnson and Burgos are in the same boat. They're all arbitration eligibles and they're all coming back from arm surgery. If they're willing to sign one-year deals on their teams' terms, they should be safe. If they insist on going to arbitration, any of the three could be cut loose.
2009-10 free agents:
Jose Valverde (Astros),
J.J. Putz (Mariners)*,
Billy Wagner (Mets)*,
Mike Gonzalez (Braves),
Rafael Soriano (Braves),
Salomon Torres (Brewers),
Ryan Madson (Phillies),
Octavio Dotel (White Sox),
Rafael Betancourt (Indians)*,
Kevin Gregg (Marlins),
Troy Percival (Rays),
Chad Cordero (Nationals),
Ryan Franklin (Cardinals)*,
Masahide Kobayashi (Indians)*,
Fernando Rodney (Tigers),
Duaner Sanchez (Mets),
Chad Bradford (Rays),
Joaquin Benoit (Rangers),
John Grabow (Pirates),
Ron Mahay (Royals),
Scott Schoeneweis (Mets),
Jamie Walker (Orioles),
Luis Vizcaino (Rockies)*,
Danys Baez (Orioles),
Jesus Colome (Nationals),
Kazuo Fukumori (Rangers)*,
Gary Glover (Tigers),
Mike Lincoln (Reds)
2010 options: Putz - $8.6 million ($1 million buyout), Wagner - $8 million ($1 million buyout), Betancourt - $5.4 million, Franklin - $2.75 million ($250,000 buyout), Kobayashi - $3.25 million ($250,000 buyout), Vizcaino - $4 million ($500,000 buyout), Fukumori - $1.75 million ($200,000 buyout)
2010-11 free agents:
B.J. Ryan (Blue Jays),
Mariano Rivera (Yankees),
Huston Street (Athletics),
Scot Shields (Angels),
Jon Rauch (Diamondbacks),
Chad Qualls (Diamondbacks),
Aaron Heilman (Mets),
Scott Downs (Blue Jays),
Frank Francisco (Rangers),
Jesse Crain (Twins),
J.C. Romero (Phillies)*,
Dan Wheeler (Rays)*,
Jason Frasor (Blue Jays),
Matt Thornton (White Sox)*,
Justin Speier (Angels),
Mike MacDougal (White Sox),
Chad Gaudin (Cubs),
David Riske (Brewers)*,
Grant Balfour (Rays),
Pedro Feliciano (Mets),
Scott Proctor (Dodgers),
Geoff Geary (Astros),
Chad Durbin (Phillies),
Matt Guerrier (Twins),
Jimmy Gobble (Royals),
Bobby Seay (Tigers),
Neal Cotts (Cubs),
Tyler Yates (Pirates),
Randy Flores (Cardinals)
2011 options: Romero - $4.5 million ($250,000 buyout), Wheeler - $4 million ($1 million buyout), Thornton - $3 million ($250,000 buyout), Riske - $4.75 million ($250,000 buyout)
