Need some hedging opinions on futures

H

HoosierBear

EOG Member
I've got a couple futures bets pending and I wanted to get some advice from more experienced bettors on hedging possibilities.

I've got two pending bets on the Giants right now, a 1 unit future (+1600) to win the NFC and a 3 unit future (+7500) to win the Super Bowl. Currently my bankroll is at 75 units but I can extend it if need be.

I'm confident in the Giants winning this upcoming week, but after that it's going to be dicey (although they did play the Pats well just a few weeks ago).

So put yourself in my shoes, how would you play it? :+clueless
 
The General

The General

Another Day, Another Dollar
Re: Need some hedging opinions on futures

Damn unless you want to risk it we're going to have and play the GB ML which I'd hate laying or try and tease something strong with GB @ a pk maybe. Hopefully we'll get more answers from others. I cannot do the math as I am busy currently. Good Luck.
 
YUNGBUCK

YUNGBUCK

2
Re: Need some hedging opinions on futures

You're sitting in a pretty damn goood spot right now!!
Why not wager about 3-4 Units on the Pack ml just to guarantee
you win some money out of this situation??
If it's -200, you win at least 800
 
N

nedrow

EOG Dedicated
Re: Need some hedging opinions on futures

dont fuk around get it as even on both sides as ya can ,id rather have a half a loaf of bread than no bread for a samwich
 
YUNGBUCK

YUNGBUCK

2
Re: Need some hedging opinions on futures

Looks like -330 @ 5dimes, so you probably won't be able to get the thing at even $$
Let's see, just play the Pack on the ML at $150 and then you'll get your $$ back +$50 or you'll win $1100 on the -330 play!! That's the only thing I can think of!!
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: Need some hedging opinions on futures

Hedge it out to the extent that you won't second guess yourself. The original bets were good ones, so don't give it all up. Lock in a good solid gain by playing the other side enough to compensate in the event of a loss.

I was in this great position the year the Eagles won the NFC. Had the Eagles at around 30-1, then played NE $ line. Got a little crazy because I thought the Eagles would cover, so I took a little +7 and hit all the way around! Bottom line, I was able to tell my buddies all week when they asked who I liked, "the only way I don't make money on this game is if they cancel it!"

Now that you've asked the question, you must hedge, because if you don't and they lose, you will kick yourself all offseason.
 
Woody

Woody

EOG Veteran
Re: Need some hedging opinions on futures

HoosierBear said:
I'm confident in the Giants winning this upcoming week, ....
Click to expand...

I'm not confident at all that they would win in Green Bay and if not your 16 unit NFC payday goes down the drain.

My approach, because of the heavy odds-on money line on Green Bay would be to play a teaser.

I'd wait until the Pats get to -13.5 or less (the line is falling) and play a 6.5/7 point teaser on the Pats and Green Bay to win around 7 units. Then you are covered if Green Bay wins while disaster would be the Pats not winning by at least a touchdown.

My plan B would be to let it ride until next week.
 
The General

The General

Another Day, Another Dollar
Re: Need some hedging opinions on futures

What about waiting until half time? What about live game betting options?
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: Need some hedging opinions on futures

Too risky to wait, if the game goes GB's way early, the prices could get out of hand quickly, the only way to control the outcome is to hedge before 3:00 Sunday. GL whatever you decide.
 
NoNewbieca

NoNewbieca

EOG Dedicated
Re: Need some hedging opinions on futures

HoosierBear - question answered in this thread from the other thread. I have always thought that a wise bettor always wins money, and a good pick like this (presumably you made some nice money last weekend betting on the Giants) and you should cash in. Make sure you reward the solid pick.
 
H

HoosierBear

EOG Member
Re: Need some hedging opinions on futures

Here's my line of thinking right now....

Obviously, if the Packers win, my chance at any future gain (Super Bowl future) is gone, so does it make sense for me to lay a huge bet on the GB ML (-320) this week (say 35 units)? Thus creating the following possible scenarios.

1) Packers win (other game inconsequential), I win 11 units.

2) Giants and Pats win. I lose 18 units this week (lose 35 units on Packers but gain 17 units on NYG NFC future), and have a future hedging opportunity in the Super Bowl. I would need to be able to make at least 30 units on the Super Bowl to make this more profitable than scenario #1.

3) Giants and Chargers win. I lose 18 units this week and have a more attractive hedging opportunity in the Super Bowl. Again, I would need to be able to make at least 30 units on the Super Bowl.

Is my logic or math flawed here? It seems to me that the lowest risk option would be to lay a huge bet on the Pack ML this week and take the short term loss if the Giants win, knowing that I can make those units back on the Super Bowl.
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: Need some hedging opinions on futures

I wouldn't wait for the Super Bowl to hedge under any circumstances. A NE/NYG Super Bowl would produce a huge pointspread resulting in you laying 7 or 8-1 on the ML to hedge on the SB. Hedge enough now so that the SB will be gravy for you in the event the Giants win this week. You want to be able to enjoy any possible scenario financially for Super Bowl week. And if the Giants win this week, I think they can win the Super Bowl vs. either AFC opponent. Not saying they WILL win, but I'd love to find out if they CAN while holding a 75-1 ticket. GL!
 
Woody

Woody

EOG Veteran
Re: Need some hedging opinions on futures

HoosierBear said:
Here's my line of thinking right now....

Obviously, if the Packers win, my chance at any future gain (Super Bowl future) is gone, so does it make sense for me to lay a huge bet on the GB ML (-320) this week (say 35 units)? Thus creating the following possible scenarios.

1) Packers win (other game inconsequential), I win 11 units.
Click to expand...

You can't always guarantee a win by hedging. If you don't like my previous proposal and want to play the Packers I suggest betting enough to recoup only your investment of 4 units. After all you liked this bet when you made it so why take away from it now and set up a losing situation should they win and get to the superbowl.

Playing 13 units on the Packers money line will return your original stake if the Packers win while you will win 3 units if the Giants win and still have an unencumbered superbowl bet.

Sometimes the best way of winning is to not lose.
 
YUNGBUCK

YUNGBUCK

2
Re: Need some hedging opinions on futures

Seems to me like you're counting the $$ that you would win as money lost if you don't get it!! I think that's dangerous!! They're both $100 bets, correct? So you only lose $100 if the Giants don't win!! Dude, play about $200 on the Packes ML -320 and that way you still win $800-$900 bucks if NY wins!! If they lose, well you STILL won $100!! That's what I think I would do!!
 
H

HoosierBear

EOG Member
Re: Need some hedging opinions on futures

In case anyone was curious, I've decided to put 14 units on the Packers ML tomorrow. I'll win a little bit if Green Bay wins, and have the potential to win a bunch in 2 weeks if the Giants pull it out.

If the Giants win tomorrow.. this thread will definitely be bumped again..
 
YUNGBUCK

YUNGBUCK

2
Re: Need some hedging opinions on futures

So does that mean you lose about 30 Units if the Giants win?
14 x -3.3= -46.2 Units + 16 Units = -30.2 Units

I don't play a lot of ML and I haven't had to hedge a lot, but that, to me, doesn't seem to take very good advantage of your NY bet!!!


If you were to add a 10 Unit NY ML play at +275, this is what you would get. Though, I think GB wipes the field with them, so it really don't matter!!

GB Wins
+14 Units
-10 Units
4 Units

NY Wins
-30.2
+27.5
-2.7 Units

I think this is right! Am I doing this right??
 
Last edited:
H

HoosierBear

EOG Member
Re: Need some hedging opinions on futures

I think you're doing some fuzzy math.

I'm betting 14 units (-350) on GB to win 18 units total so....

+4 units if GB wins

and if NY wins, I get back 17 units for my NFC Championship future so

+3 units (plus Super Bowl future still alive)

GO GIANTS!
 
YUNGBUCK

YUNGBUCK

2
Re: Need some hedging opinions on futures

I'm with ya now!
Like I said, I never play ML cause my local guy won't do it. I understood the Dog ML process, but I was backwards on the fave plays!!
 
H

HoosierBear

EOG Member
Re: Super Bowl Hedging

Re: Super Bowl Hedging

bump.. for obvious reasons

So what does everyone think about the Super Bowl... I've already put 19 units on the Pats ML (-475). I may not have the opportunity to take advantage of live betting, so what does everyone think about hedging here?
 
Finance

Finance

EOG Veteran
Re: Need some hedging opinions on futures

What a great spot to be in, although it sucks that the line is so high that you have to blow -425 on the Pats M/L but you could just about write your own ticket - to me it just depends on how pissed off you would be if the Giants actually do win and you've hedged away cash on both bets. I personally would leave the bigger payday on the Giants but hedge it one way or the other to make sure I won at least 10 units either way. Good luck and I'm sure we all wish we were in your shoes!!
 
Mr. Smith

Mr. Smith

EOG Master
Re: Need some hedging opinions on futures

Patriots money line should be OK bet. Its worked so far this year!
 
crazyl

crazyl

2
Re: Need some hedging opinions on futures

HoosierBear,

we're in the exact opposite situation. I threw down on a New England SB future weeks ago at -120. The only team I realistically figured stood in their path was Indy, so I grabbed them at 6-1 which I felt was a steal. That was the only insurance I exercised on this bet, I will not be hedging at all. If I was in your situation, I would consider securing something as well. Congrats for getting this far, and I obviously hope your hedging turns out to be the right move so we both cash!
:party:dancefool
 
Finance

Finance

EOG Veteran
Re: Need some hedging opinions on futures

Nice Crazy - -120 sure seems a lot nicer than -475 or whatever the big number is now....
 
H

HoosierBear

EOG Member
Re: Need some hedging opinions on futures

In case anyone is curious, this is what i've done for the game Sunday...

64 units on Pats ML (to profit 14 units)

14.5 units on Giants +12 (-115)

and of course...

my 3 unit future on the Giants to win (+7500)

Bring it home Eli!

:cheers
 
H

HoosierBear

EOG Member
Re: Need some hedging opinions on futures

:party :party :party :party :party GO GIANTS!!!!
:cheers :cheers :cheers :cheers :cheers
 
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